Today is 10 years since the announcement that shook Australia & destroyed an industry. And killed Holden.

[Syndrome]

When I posted the five year thread at that stage the last Australian made car had rolled off the end of the assembly line months ago. The assembly plants were in the process of being dismantled. And Holden were seeing early warning signs that the Opel Commodore was not selling in the anticipated numbers.

https://www.fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11472229

Now it is ten years and the decision by Ford to end local production turned out worse than expected. Although Ford didn't kill the Holden brand, they contributed to it's demise. As I drive the streets of Melbourne I regularly see locations were former Holden dealers were located are now either selling other brands or are empty and derelict. That was not expected in 2013.

Plus the domino effect of former tier 1 suppliers going bankrupt (Ajax Fasteners, MacKay Rubber etc). And those who are still going have scaled back their local operations (I met with NSK a few weeks ago who told me how much their business has downsized since 2016).

If it was only possible to get the former assembly lines to

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

When I posted the five year thread at that stage the last Australian made car had rolled off the end of the assembly line months ago. The assembly plants were in the process of being dismantled. As I drive the streets of Melbourne I regularly see locations were former Holden dealers were located are now either selling other brands or are empty and derelict. That was not expected in 2013.

Plus the domino effect of former tier 1 suppliers going bankrupt (Ajax Fasteners, MacKay Rubber etc). And those who are still going have scaled back their local operations (I met with NSK a few weeks ago who told me how much their business has downsized since 2016).

Nothings gonna change while we have politicians making their own self interested agreements behind our backs.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Nothings gonna change while we have politicians making their own self interested agreements behind our backs.

Politicians didnt have much to do with it. We werent buying enough Fords, so they committed less and less to development and updates, so we bought even less. Once one manufacturer went, the critical mass wasnt there to support sourcing components here, and soon all the dominos start to fall. It's easy to say the government of the day were responsible for Holden walking away, but they had committed to a long term future under the previous government, then came cap in hand wanting even more. That was never going to fly.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by b0son

Politicians didnt have much to do with it. We werent buying enough Fords, so they committed less and less to development and updates, so we bought even less. Once one manufacturer went, the critical mass wasnt there to support sourcing components here, and soon all the dominos start to fall. It's easy to say the government of the day were responsible for Holden walking away, but they had committed to a long term future under the previous government, then came cap in hand wanting even more. That was never going to fly.

Thank you for your in depth answer but don't recall saying politicians made the decision for the manufacturers.
I just know because of them it may never return.

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Thank you for your in depth answer but don't recall saying politicians made the decision for the manufacturers.
I just know because of them it may never return.

I don't think that "they" will never return because of our politicians alone. It has a lot more to do with our relatively high wages & other (govt) on-costs, which make it unviable to manufacture here.

Dr Terry

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Dr Terry

I don't think that "they" will never return because of our politicians alone. It has a lot more to do with our relatively high wages & other (govt) on-costs, which make it unviable to manufacture here.

Dr Terry

FFS !!!!.......never said that either.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by b0son

Politicians didnt have much to do with it. We werent buying enough Fords, so they committed less and less to development and updates, so we bought even less. Once one manufacturer went, the critical mass wasnt there to support sourcing components here, and soon all the dominos start to fall. It's easy to say the government of the day were responsible for Holden walking away, but they had committed to a long term future under the previous government, then came cap in hand wanting even more. That was never going to fly.

They did 100%. The gradual reduction in tariffs, and the fact they never reviewed the need to keep them once the demand started to wear off, was essentially the biggest nail that lead to the demise.

That was the no 1 reason the local industry is now dead. Tariffs keep them viable. Once the tariffs had dropped to next to nothing was when the industry essentially died, it just took years for it to happen.

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

They did 100%. The gradual reduction in tariffs, and the fact they never reviewed the need to keep them once the demand started to wear off, was essentially the biggest nail that lead to the demise.

That was the no 1 reason the local industry is now dead. Tariffs keep them viable. Once the tariffs had dropped to next to nothing was when the industry essentially died, it just took years for it to happen.

Tariffs alone wasn't going to be enough on their own, considering all of the other overheads they had to endure. Look at some of the ridiculous charges like high electricity costs & local govt rates, which have soared in recent years.

Dr Terry

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Dr Terry

Tariffs alone wasn't going to be enough on their own, considering all of the other overheads they had to endure. Look at some of the ridiculous charges like high electricity costs & local govt rates, which have soared in recent years.

Dr Terry

Are they also not politically made costs?

We had some of the cheapest electricity prices in the world not long ago. Now we have some of the most expensive, because of green driven agendas.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

They did 100%. The gradual reduction in tariffs, and the fact they never reviewed the need to keep them once the demand started to wear off, was essentially the biggest nail that lead to the demise.

That was the no 1 reason the local industry is now dead. Tariffs keep them viable. Once the tariffs had dropped to next to nothing was when the industry essentially died, it just took years for it to happen.

Flipside question... Would the cars had been as good as they were if they had industry protection?

The reduction in tariffs was designed to foster competitiveness and engineering excellence. They were as good as they were because they had to compete with the world. But if they were the only thing affordable on the market there was a great chance they would be poorly developed lacklustre vehicles.

Pommie car manufacturing is a testament to that.

And say I that owning 2 piece of **** lemon BF vehicles.

[rare ss]

Originally Posted by b0son

Politicians didnt have much to do with it. We werent buying enough Fords, so they committed less and less to development and updates, so we bought even less. Once one manufacturer went, the critical mass wasnt there to support sourcing components here, and soon all the dominos start to fall. It's easy to say the government of the day were responsible for Holden walking away, but they had committed to a long term future under the previous government, then came cap in hand wanting even more. That was never going to fly.

Seeds were sown long before the Libs getting the blame for the exit of GMH and the end of local manufacturing from Ford

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Button_car_plan

[janddbone]

I came on to find a thread like this. A national shame and sad day.

[Wretched]

On the flip side - Toyota Australia expanded their R&D facilities, transformed their old assembly buildings into a centre of excellence, hydrogen R&D, a test track and numerous other facilities. They've hedged their bets on innovation and engineering rather than just one dimensional assembly.

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by Wretched

On the flip side - Toyota Australia expanded their R&D facilities, transformed their old assembly buildings into a centre of excellence, hydrogen R&D, a test track and numerous other facilities. They've hedged their bets on innovation and engineering rather than just one dimensional assembly.

Toyota was the only Aussie automaker which was financially viable post-GFC.

Both Ford & Holden were at the mercy of their US parents. Ford weren't permitted to build any LHD cars & therefore gain any real export marketing opportunities. GMH had huge export markets & were exporting more than 50% of there total production, but GM (US) took that off them during the GFC, replacing Aussie-built RWD cars with their FWD rubbish in those markets, leaving Holden the crumbs.

Toyota had no such constraints.

Result being that both had not enough volume sales to exist in such a small market.

Dr Terry

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by Dr Terry

Toyota was the only Aussie automaker which was financially viable post-GFC.

Both Ford & Holden were at the mercy of their US parents. Ford weren't permitted to build any LHD cars & therefore gain any real export marketing opportunities. GMH had huge export markets & were exporting more than 50% of there total production, but GM (US) took that off them during the GFC, replacing Aussie-built RWD cars with their FWD rubbish in those markets, leaving Holden the crumbs.

Toyota had no such constraints.

Result being that both had not enough volume sales to exist in such a small market.

Dr Terry

And once one of the US car makers decided to end Australian production the other was always very likely to follow.

Ford Australia to head office. "we need 1 billion dollars to update the Falcon". Head office "wouldn't it be cheaper to import a RHD version of one of our existing models?" FoA "but GM are doing it for the Holden. We have to compete with them". Head office "okay do it"

Holden to head office. "we need 1 billion dollars to update the Commodore". Head office "wouldn't it be cheaper to import a RHD version of one of our existing models? Holden "but Ford are doing it for the Falcon. We have to compete with them". Head office "okay do it"

[FairmontGS]

They were making cars that only a few wanted. And what most people wanted was readily available from OS suppliers.

[rare ss]

I'm still waiting for these cheap imported cars we were promised..

My kingdom for a decently priced sedan that's fun to drive

[arm79]

Originally Posted by rare ss

I'm still waiting for these cheap imported cars we were promised..

My kingdom for a decently priced sedan that's fun to drive

They are here... But with no Falcodores to provide the standard ratio of pricing and value against they just set the price as what is probably should have always been.

I was always told it cost as much to build a Corolla as it does a Falcon. But the only way a Corolla can make money is economies of scale and a much lower profit margin. Now they are simply making acceptable profit margins.

[FTE217]

Cheez there was heaps of factors that contributed to the fall of Manufacturing here of the main 2.
Be it US run, Ford more so.
Not keeping up with the market trends.
Band aid remidies like the Daewoo partneship for Holden.
Ford EU product too expensive.
Sub standard product till they finally pulled their finger out all too late.
The last couple of gens by both were brilliant cars, if only they did that years before especially Ford.
Unions.
Not being pro active enough for Export Ford looking at you compared to Holden.
Government.

Dr Terry, Holden selling 50 to Export ? yer that so.
I knew ME was buying V8 commodores but it wasn't massive volumes, the G8 to US was a bomb.
What am I missing here ?

[XRtowcar]

We should have been building Rangers but the free trade agreement with Thailand killed us.
We gave them free access and they gave us 40% taxes on imports to Thailand.

[CyberWasp]

Yes, Ford had the Territory all lined up to be exported to Thailand after the signing of the Free Trade Agreement.
Then Thailand slapped Tariffs on the import of vehicles with engines over 3.0lt.

Who makes deals like this and says or does nothing.

All this country has ever needed is a government that actually works for the best interests of its people. I don't know who they work for but it not the people that vote here. Both sides are the same.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

Yes, Ford had the Territory all lined up to be exported to Thailand after the signing of the Free Trade Agreement.
Then Thailand slapped Tariffs on the import of vehicles with engines over 3.0lt.

Who makes deals like this and says or does nothing.

All this country has ever needed is a government that actually works for the best interests of its people. I don't know who they work for but it not the people that vote here. Both sides are the same.

Well said. Exactly what I was getting at.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

Yes, Ford had the Territory all lined up to be exported to Thailand after the signing of the Free Trade Agreement.
Then Thailand slapped Tariffs on the import of vehicles with engines over 3.0lt.

Who makes deals like this and says or does nothing.

All this country has ever needed is a government that actually works for the best interests of its people. I don't know who they work for but it not the people that vote here. Both sides are the same.

The lack of response from the Howard Government at that time still burns me...they could have argued against it and instead the Thai government openly targeted local OEM suppliers to set up overseas. The Territory became similarly priced to a BMW X5 in Thailand and killed it's chances immediately. I think 100 were shipped over.

Just think, if they could have sold 500/month to Thailand and possibly same or more to South Africa, add NZ and some more RHD countries plus Australian sales and you could have had 5000 units built a month and maybe still ongoing production here with updates drawing on Ford's global tech just as Ranger has received.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

The lack of response from the Howard Government at that time still burns me...they could have argued against it and instead the Thai government openly targeted local OEM suppliers to set up overseas. The Territory became similarly priced to a BMW X5 in Thailand and killed it's chances immediately. I think 100 were shipped over.

Just think, if they could have sold 500/month to Thailand and possibly same or more to South Africa, add NZ and some more RHD countries plus Australian sales and you could have had 5000 units built a month and maybe still ongoing production here with updates drawing on Ford's global tech just as Ranger has received.

DR, all due respect you or any of us have no clue what the backroom issues we're arising in the first place.
The Gov on one hand tries to build relations and business, on the other hand our beloved Ford US was and long before wanted to get out of here.
When the Thai Terri export deal was announced Falcon sales we're plummeting, what kind of feedback do you think our Gov was getting then, next thing Ford announced within weeks of the deal 440 line workers were being put off preparing to reduce output by 30%.
In the meantime Ford we're building the new Thai plant.
Ford was doing alot of reshuffling globally, be pretty hard for any Gov to turn the tide.
Ford switched Focus made in Germany to Thailand, Escape was heading to Thailand and low and behold Ranger.

So as mentioned we know nothing what really went on but in their position and reviewing I sure wouldn't have poured more $$$ or effort into a scenario that didn't look that promising long term.
That was 2012 Ford US had already laid their path long before the Terri Export HOPE, 2016 closure was set in stone in the boardroom so long ago it just couldn't come soon enough for them.

[XR Martin]

My understanding is that Thailand put some sneaky tax on the Territory which was a surprise to Ford Oz.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by arm79

Flipside question... Would the cars had been as good as they were if they had industry protection?

The reduction in tariffs was designed to foster competitiveness and engineering excellence. They were as good as they were because they had to compete with the world. But if they were the only thing affordable on the market there was a great chance they would be poorly developed lacklustre vehicles.

Pommie car manufacturing is a testament to that.

And say I that owning 2 piece of **** lemon BF vehicles.

There was a middle ground there somewhere, where the manufacturers needed to be more competitive, but also have enough of a tariff barrier to help protect them. They got more competitive, but by then the whole protection barrier was gone. The stupid thing was, that most other countries tariff barriers stayed in place, so they got screwed both ways.

The button plan should have been reviewed and re-evaluated every 5 years or something, not just a set and forget plan that ultimately killed the industry, because no one cared about reviewing it.

Originally Posted by FTE217

DR, all due respect you or any of us have no clue what the backroom issues we're arising in the first place.
The Gov on one hand tries to build relations and business, on the other hand our beloved Ford US was and long before wanted to get out of here.
When the Thai Terri export deal was announced Falcon sales we're plummeting, what kind of feedback do you think our Gov was getting then, next thing Ford announced within weeks of the deal 440 line workers were being put off preparing to reduce output by 30%.
In the meantime Ford we're building the new Thai plant.
Ford was doing alot of reshuffling globally, be pretty hard for any Gov to turn the tide.
Ford switched Focus made in Germany to Thailand, Escape was heading to Thailand and low and behold Ranger.

So as mentioned we know nothing what really went on but in their position and reviewing I sure wouldn't have poured more $$$ or effort into a scenario that didn't look that promising long term.
That was 2012 Ford US had already laid their path long before the Terri Export HOPE, 2016 closure was set in stone in the boardroom so long ago it just couldn't come soon enough for them.

Focus was supposed to be built here too. But that plan was also pulled.

The real nail in the coffin for Falcon was the GFC, cause that alone killed off the Global RWD platform that would have secured Falcon and Territory's future, or at least extended it, and allowed potential exports.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

Yes, Ford had the Territory all lined up to be exported to Thailand after the signing of the Free Trade Agreement.
Then Thailand slapped Tariffs on the import of vehicles with engines over 3.0lt.

Who makes deals like this and says or does nothing.

All this country has ever needed is a government that actually works for the best interests of its people. I don't know who they work for but it not the people that vote here. Both sides are the same.

Something's not adding up here for me.

I just did some quick (read basic) searching and the DFAT website says this about Thailand's import taxes for Australian cars (a combination of two points to put it into the correct context):

Upon TAFTA's entry into force on 1 January 2005, Thailand immediately eliminated tariffs on large passenger motor vehicles (engine capacity of over 3000cc) and goods vehicles, previously at 80% and 60% respectively. For other passenger motor vehicles, Thailand immediately reduced the previous 80% tariff to 30%, before phasing this down by 6% each year to zero in 2010.

and yet this story in 2013 says that:

by the time local taxes that discourage the import of large-capacity engines and skew the market to locally built cars, the Territory sells in Thailand for about $AUD100,000, compared with less than $70,000 for the range-topping, feature-rich Titanium sold here with a turbo-diesel V6 powerplant.

Both of those can't be true (or at least, not at face value). Any one here know more info about this?

The reason I looked into it a little further is that, whilst the Thailand Australia Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA) may not have been good for our vehicle manufacturing businesses, the TAFTA would have to have been thought to bring us more benefits overall than it would have cost us, right? At least in theory. Practice may actually deliver something very different, of course.

[whynot]

There are a number of reasons why the Australian car industry died off; cost of local labour, high local indirect costs (e.g. electricity, taxes), one-sided trade agreements, and so forth.

Part of the problem is also the fragmentation of the market. To the point that if there was a factory producing Toyota Hilux - the most popular vehicle in 2022 by some margin - it would be struggling with low production volume.

Over the last 40 years of my working career, I have seen so much of Australian manufacturing shipped offshore. The reason is simple, excessive cost, which pulls down other secondary industries. But, I am at a loss as to how to prevent protective structures designed to foster Australian manufacturing from being held captive by various interest groups.

[Franco Cozzo]

Go read the productivity commission submissions from all the local automotive component suppliers dated around 2001/2002, they're available online, it gives you a serious insight into the issues with the free trade agreements with Thailand and some of the bull**** that went on with South Korea/Thailand/China.

The South Pacific Tyres submission is interesting.

[bungarra]

Ford and GM were trying to get out of manufacturing since the mid 70's and

Ford Australia: The Cars and the People That Built Them and Holden: Our Car 1856–2020 have information on the attempts to get out Australian manufacturing way before they ended.