VFACTS - September 2024

[Trendseeker]

New car deliveries down for second consecutive month
RAV4 takes out the top position in sales/deliveries.
Hybrid sales up 34%
EV sales down 27%
Ranger and Everest account for 89% of Ford's sales

https://www.drive.com.au/news/vfacts...medium=partner

Australian new-car sales in September 2024: Market hits reverse again as Toyota RAV4 leads

New-car deliveries are in negative territory for the second consecutive month – the longest streak in two years – but hybrid sales are booming, led by the chart-topping Toyota RAV4.

New motor vehicle deliveries in Australia have hit reverse for the second month in a row – after 14 months of consecutive growth ended earlier this year – with the Toyota RAV4 topping the charts for the fourth time this year.

The new-car market is still in positive territory over the first nine months of the year – up 4.1 per cent on last year's record-setting year-to-date result – but experts forecast a decline of about 5 to 10 per cent by the end of 2024.

With three months remaining in 2024, the Toyota RAV4 is closing the gap in the sales race to the top-selling Ford Ranger – but it is far from certain to take top honours by the end of the year.

These vehicles led a Top 10 consisting entirely of utes and SUVs, without any traditional 'passenger cars' – hatchbacks, sedans, coupes or people movers.

Sales of hybrid vehicles are bucking the sales decline – up 34 per cent last month – but electric cars were down 27 per cent amid a sales slump for market leader Tesla.

Data published today reports 99,881 new vehicles were sold in Australia last month, down 9.8 per cent on September 2023's sales.

It is the second consecutive month of decline – the longest streak of negative performance in more than two years – as a long-forecast slowdown in demand for new vehicles sets in.

When a 14-month streak of year-on-year new-car sales growth – the longest in two decades – ended after May 2024, deliveries of new vehicles were up 12 per cent year-to-date compared to the first five months of 2023.

At the end of September, the year-on-year increase has slipped to just 4.1 per cent – and last year's annual sales record of 1.2 million vehicles is not expected to be surpassed.

Toyota has previously forecast 1.05 to 1.1 million deliveries over the calendar year, while Volkswagen Group Australia – importer of the VW, Skoda, Cupra and Audi brands – has forecast closer to 1.15 million.

"The market started very [well] in the first quarter, [and started] a little bit slowing down in the last [European] summer months [June to August]," VGA managing director Karsten Seifert told Drive prior to the publication of today's results.

"We still think it's on its way to one [million] 150 [thousand] ... that is a very reasonable fit to the current forecast."

The September 2024 sales data listed here is sourced from VFACTS data published by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), Australia's peak body for new-car brands, as well as Tesla and Polestar data distributed through the Electric Vehicle Council, as these brands no longer submit figures to the FCAI's reports.

Toyota remained the top-selling new-vehicle brand last month, reporting 18,110 deliveries – down 13.4 per cent for the month, but up 18.7 per cent year-to-date – and accounting for 18 per cent of cars sold.

It was followed by Ford (8303) riding high on the success of the Ranger ute and related Everest 4WD, which together account for 89 per cent of its year-to-date sales.

Mazda finished in third position for the seventh month in a row – its longest period out of second place in more than a decade, something the brand says it is not concerned with – as it shifts its focus to a growing range of luxury-priced SUVs.

Kia finished in fourth with 7650 deliveries, ahead of Mitsubishi (6130), Hyundai (5633) and Isuzu Ute (3929).

The Toyota RAV4 topped the new-car sales charts for the third month in a row, though its September 2024 result of 5182 deliveries is down on its record-setting August sales of 6712 vehicles.

Following in second and third were the Ford Ranger (4485) and Toyota HiLux (4313) utes – last year's first and second best-selling vehicles – ahead of the Ford Everest.

TOP 10 CARS IN September 2024

Rank Model Volume September 2024 Change year-on-year
1 Toyota RAV4 5183 up 85.2 per cent
2 Ford Ranger 4485 down 17.4 per cent
3 Toyota HiLux 4313 down 25.3 per cent
4 Ford Everest 2902 up 46.3 per cent
5 Isuzu D-Max 2612 down 9.5 per cent
6 Mitsubishi Outlander 2508 down 4.0 per cent
7 Kia Sportage 2055 up 1.2 per cent
8 Mazda CX-3 1982 up 29.5 per cent
9 Mazda CX-5 1799 down 4.7 per cent
10 Hyundai Tucson 1766 up 5.2 per cent

TOP 10 CAR BRANDS IN September 2024
Rank Brand Volume September 2024 Change year-on-year
1 Toyota 18,110 down 13.4 per cent
2 Ford 8303 up 3.6 per cent
3 Mazda 8201 up 2.1 per cent
4 Kia 7650 up 4.8 per cent
5 Mitsubishi 6130 up 6.4 per cent
6 Hyundai 5633 down 9.4 per cent
7 Isuzu Ute 3929 down 0.1 per cent
8 MG 3841 down 28.9 per cent
9 GWM 3802 up 31.2 per cent
10 Subaru 3169 down 26.3 per cent

Ford Sales Totals
Ford Escape – 7
Ford Everest – 2902
Ford F-150 – 191
Ford Fiesta – 0
Ford Focus – 0
Ford Mustang – 240
Ford Mustang Mach-E – 64
Ford Puma – 6
Ford Ranger 4x2 – 298
Ford Ranger 4x4 – 4187
Ford Transit Bus – 13
Ford Transit Custom – 272
Ford Transit Heavy – 123
Ford Total – 8303

[Sprintey]

Carsguide are writing it up as significant falls for the dual cabs

https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-new...acks-appear-in

"Among the hardest hit were two giants of our new-car sales race, the Toyota HiLux and Ford Ranger, with both suffering significant falls versus the same month in 2023.

The Toyota HiLux recorded 4313 sales in September, down 25.3 per cent from the 5776 it managed in September 2023. The Ford Ranger shifted 4485 units, down 17.4 per cent on the 5429 it managed in the same month last year.

The utes' stumble opened the door for the Toyota RAV4 to claim the title of Australia's best-selling vehicle for the second month running, shifting 5182 units in September, up a massive 85.2 per cent on the 2798 it managed in the same month last year, as Toyota's production woes ease up and orders are fulfilled.

The overall numbers show an easing off in Australian new-car sales, with EV sales stagnating and the broader market beginning to stutter - something Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries Chief Executive Tony Weber attributes to the state of the economy."

[kevino]

1982 Mazda Cx3 sold in September
Think about that

1982!

And Ford just walked away from Suv s in Aus ( except Everest)

[kevino]

And 1780 odd cx5 s

[Rob 351]

Everest looks to be picking up the absent Prado sales which is great for Ford, just need to keep them now if they converted.
The American Pick up truck market doesn’t seem to grow, it just being spread between the 3 (soon to be 4) Manufacturers.
At one stage Ram had the market to itself and used to get the 500-600 sales to itself per month. Then Silverado came along and it was split 50:50 between the 2 at about 300 sales each per month. Ford came along with F150 and now it’s about 200 sales per manufacturer per month and now with Tundra coming along….. You do the math.
Probably the big winner out of all this is Walkinshaw who converts 3 of the 4 American Pick ups. But you wonder if potentially selling just 150 a month for a manufacturer is worth the effort!
Time will tell I guess!

[whynot]

TOP 10 CARS IN September 2024

Rank Model Volume September 2024 Change year-on-year
1 Toyota RAV4 5183 up 85.2 per cent

Ranger PHEV may well be a reputational 'a stitch in time saves nine ...'

Also, it will be fascinating to watch the sales of Prado verses Everest in about 12 months time.

Credit to Toyota with their PHEV technology. Everyone laughed at Toyota for introducing the Prius back in 1997. These days it is very mature technology, with a good payback on the initial investment for the buyer.

[Rastas]

Originally Posted by whynot

Ranger PHEV may well be a reputational 'a stitch in time saves nine ...'

Also, it will be fascinating to watch the sales of Prado verses Everest in about 12 months time.

Credit to Toyota with their PHEV technology. Everyone laughed at Toyota for introducing the Prius back in 1997. These days it is very mature technology, with a good payback on the initial investment for the buyer.

Toyota have been spooked by Chinese cars now and are trying hard to buy BYDs PHEV tech ...... don't blame them (2000kms plus per tank full) and last months sales of 420000 cars put them at no3 in World Sept sales , pretty much all Legacy brands are on notice now from BYD and the other over 100 China car brands.
Love or hate them they are bringing prices down and specs up.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Rastas

Toyota have been spooked by Chinese cars now and are trying hard to buy BYDs PHEV tech ...... don't blame them (2000kms plus per tank full) and last months sales of 420000 cars put them at no3 in World Sept sales , pretty much all Legacy brands are on notice now from BYD and the other over 100 China car brands.
Love or hate them they are bringing prices down and specs up.

The EU and US are accusing the CCP of massive subsidies to the Chinese EV brands.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

The EU and US are accusing the CCP of massive subsidies to the Chinese EV brands.

Sounds like sour grapes, try sell a ute in the US

Pot calling the kettle black in the case of the US,

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Sounds like sour grapes, try sell a ute in the US

Pot calling the kettle black in the case of the US,

China is basically having a national competition to find the superior BEV brands.
Initially, this is to take back sales in its domestic market but ultimately, it will make
the Japanese and Korean car invasions of North America and Europe look like small fry.
Both of those regions are now worried that their entire car manufacturing industries
could fold up within a decade. Hell yeah, they are terrified that the wolf is at the door.


Chinese brands will probably hurt the weaker brands like Honda, Nissan and maybe some
of the lesser Euro brands in our market, Peugeot, Renault, maybe even VW too…

[EBSXR6]

Mustang sales have improved after the holdup with the strike.

[jpd80]

On topic, very pleased to see Everest sales up to 2,900 last month but realise that
some of it is definitely due to the vacant Prado, although RAV4 is storming ahead.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

On topic, very pleased to see Everest sales up to 2,900 last month but realise that
some of it is definitely due to the vacant Prado, although RAV4 is storming ahead.

RAV4 had back orders of up to 3 years, Toyota finally got supply. It’ll eventually come down, but the pent up demand will ensure it’s this years best selling Motor Vehicle in Australia.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

RAV4 had back orders of up to 3 years, Toyota finally got supply. It’ll eventually come down, but the pent up demand will ensure it’s this years best selling Motor Vehicle in Australia.

Indeed, I’ve thought about this for a long while.
Toyota really has that compact hybrid SUV buyer base locked up for the next few years.
Even if Ford could supply more Escape hybrids, Thers no guarantee it would do much.


So thinking wider,
Should Ford just stick to it knitting with Ranger/Everest by chasing as many sales as possible
(I want to say 2.3 EB Everest but understand that’s probably off the table for now)
or should Ford AUS be pressing for other products like Maverick and Bronco Sport?
Word is that Gen2 Maverick is being developed in RHD but that’s probably 2027/2028.


Ram and Jeep sales look to be collapsing in USA, I wonder if that becomes an opportunity
For Ford to press with more T6 product there, more aggressive pricing with Bronco
but also perhaps give Everest a run as a mid sized alternative under Explorer?
A 2.3 EB version might be an easy go to if Farley changes his mind on more product..

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Indeed, I’ve thought about this for a long while.
Toyota really has that compact hybrid SUV buyer base locked up for the next few years.
Even if Ford could supply more Escape hybrids, Thers no guarantee it would do much.


So thinking wider,
Should Ford just stick to it knitting with Ranger/Everest by chasing as many sales as possible
(I want to say 2.3 EB Everest but understand that’s probably off the table for now)
or should Ford AUS be pressing for other products like Maverick and Bronco Sport?
Word is that Gen2 Maverick is being developed in RHD but that’s probably 2027/2028.


Ram and Jeep sales look to be collapsing in USA, I wonder if that becomes an opportunity
For Ford to press with more T6 product there, more aggressive pricing with Bronco
but also perhaps give Everest a run as a mid sized alternative under Explorer?
A 2.3 EB version might be an easy go to if Farley changes his mind on more product..

RAM and Jeep sales collapsing in the US is a perfect storm of very high pricing in covid, what consumers have described as scalping, force feeding dealers, disagreement between Stellantis and unions (quality), Stellantis and dealer bodies (no incentives given, lawsuits, open letters of rebellion) - but mostly a consumer that refuses to pay 60-70K US for a pickup truck they used to buy in the 30s. Ending all the Hemi V8s hasn't helped. They are too late with adjusting prices lower as the covid stimulus effect has subsided.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

RAM and Jeep sales collapsing in the US is a perfect storm of very high pricing in covid, what consumers have described as scalping, force feeding dealers, disagreement between Stellantis and unions (quality), Stellantis and dealer bodies (no incentives given, lawsuits, open letters of rebellion) - but mostly a consumer that refuses to pay 60-70K US for a pickup truck they used to buy in the 30s. Ending all the Hemi V8s hasn't helped. They are too late with adjusting prices lower as the covid stimulus effect has subsided.

All US sellers are feeling the cooling of the market, fewer buyers want to finance at the moment
knowing that their jobs might be ending, can’t afford the monthly payment or waiting for lower interst rates.

Stellantis is especially bad because high end buyers seem to have deserted them and inventory
is loaded with hard to sell models. Maybe everyone waiting for a fire sale at cost just to move them

[Syndrome]

2 Chinese brands in the top 10 - ouch!

Where are the Tesla sales?

[EBSXR6]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Where are the Tesla sales?

Tesla is on the nose.
I have seen reports showing a huge area at the Port of Melbourne filled with Tesla's.
There has been recent bad publicity following the recent price drops with no compensation for recently purchased cars.One model dropped $10,000.

I was told this by a third party, a Tesla owner had to drive from Mildura to Melbourne to get new tyres as no local tyre shop wanted to touch the vehicle in case they damaged the battery pack.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by EBSXR6

Tesla is on the nose.
I have seen reports showing a huge area at the Port of Melbourne filled with Tesla's.
There has been recent bad publicity following the recent price drops with no compensation for recently purchased cars.One model dropped $10,000.

I was told this by a third party, a Tesla owner had to drive from Mildura to Melbourne to get new tyres as no local tyre shop wanted to touch the vehicle in case they damaged the battery pack.

How would one damage the battery pack....and if they did with the hoist chances are they would have damaged any car with mis-aligned hoist points.

Speaking of BEV price drops...Ford E-Transit large van has had a $35K price drop to move current stock before updated model.

[EBSXR6]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

How would one damage the battery pack....and if they did with the hoist chances are they would have damaged any car with mis-aligned hoist points.

Speaking of BEV price drops...Ford E-Transit large van has had a $35K price drop to move current stock before updated model.

I don't know to be honest, was simply told by a third party.
BEV price drop is huge, Ford BEV division is costing them a mint.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by EBSXR6

Tesla is on the nose.
I have seen reports showing a huge area at the Port of Melbourne filled with Tesla's.
There has been recent bad publicity following the recent price drops with no compensation for recently purchased cars.One model dropped $10,000.

I was told this by a third party, a Tesla owner had to drive from Mildura to Melbourne to get new tyres as no local tyre shop wanted to touch the vehicle in case they damaged the battery pack.

I think it's hilarious that people want compensation for their vehicles devaluing because of a manufacturer responding to the market causing second hand values to drop.

The federal government owes me money because they inflated the value of my Caprice during COVID by printing money and handing it to every clown in the country, now economic conditions have tightened they should compensate me for devaluing my shitbox car that they artificially inflated the value of which has now dropped back to its real value

World's gone mad, who remembers when cars were things you bought for getting from A to B rather than pseudo 'investments' that have to be protected.

I reckon people are just salty over it because they're financing everything rather than paying with cash, too much keeping up with the Jonses rather than living within their means, that's why people are demanding compensation for their own poor decisions like it's Tesla's problem.

[EBSXR6]

In my area there is a large Chinese population and there is not a lot of Chinese vehicles.

[kevino]

But honestly who would pay near 100 k for a Bev Transit
Doesn’t stack up
100000 less 35000 is 65000 might find some takers some virtue signallers

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by kevino

But honestly who would pay near 100 k for a Bev Transit
Doesn’t stack up
100000 less 35000 is 65000 might find some takers some virtue signallers

At $65K it's a real hot proposition for people using it for local work, minimised fuel and servicing costs, plus 99% of industrial properties have decent electrical infrastructure going into them so you could have a bunch of them charging up overnight on big single phase or a couple three phase circuits

$100K is a joke, you can buy a lot of diesel and servicing for $35,000.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by kevino

But honestly who would pay near 100 k for a Bev Transit
Doesn’t stack up
100000 less 35000 is 65000 might find some takers some virtue signallers

Apparently not many did....and to think the E-Transit was originally priced below the LDV competitor to begin with as well....now at $65K it's only a bit more than the MY24.75 2.0L diesel (121kW/390Nm) version but with 198kW/430Nm it would be a beast in metro traffic.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

Apparently not many did....and to think the E-Transit was originally priced below the LDV competitor to begin with as well....now at $65K it's only a bit more than the MY24.75 2.0L diesel (121kW/390Nm) version but with 198kW/430Nm it would be a beast in metro traffic.

Am I wrong in thinking that Ford Europe now treats Ford Australia like just another retail customer buying in bulk?
It feels like these vehicles all have a premium price with a fair bit of (profit) helmet factor added..

You watch the Chinese electric commercials put the knife through that nonsense…

[Trendseeker]

Australian electric car sales January to September 2024

https://www.drive.com.au/news/ev-sal...onths-of-2024/

Sales of electric cars have hit a speed bump – and if the current rate of decline continues to New Year's Eve, deliveries may not improve upon 2023's record result.

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in Australia are on track to flatline by the end of 2024 – and may fail to grow year-on-year for the first time since 2016 – amid a cooldown in demand for battery-powered cars.

It is despite more choice in the electric-car market than ever before – and drastic price cuts that have seen the most affordable models limbo beneath $35,000 drive-away for the first time.

Deliveries of electric cars declined for the fourth month in a row in September 2024, as the popularity of hybrid vehicles booms amid concerns around driving range and accessibility of EV charging stations.

Australian electric vehicle sales (Jan-Sep 2024)

Model…………Jan-Sep (Year to date)…..Jan-Mar (Q1)…..Apr-Jun (Q2)…..Jul-Sep (Q3)
Tesla Model Y………………..16697…………………….6835………………..5868…………………4181
Tesla Model 3………………..14053………………..…..5954………………..4974………………..3 453
BYD Seal……………………..….5308………………..…..1573………………..2278……… ……….1216
BYD Atto 3……………………….4926…………………....2220………………..1522……………….1 200
MG 4………………………………..3772……………………..1335………………..1267…………… ….1001
BMW iX1………………………….1948……………………....476………………….880……………… ...711
BYD Dolphin…………………….1740……………………....688………………….605………… ………492
Volvo EX30 1697 0 1199 696
BMW i4 1592 457 672 415
Kia EV6 1470 589 497 410
Polestar 2 1288 348 593 338
Hyundai Kona Electric 1159 502 386 267
MG ZS EV 1003 295 294 363
GWM Ora 901 282 313 309
Volvo XC40 Recharge 882 444 232 150
Mercedes-Benz EQA 829 258 370 205
BMW iX2 797 29 479 369
BMW iX3 794 290 193 249
Toyota bZ4X 771 311 262 216
Hyundai Ioniq 5 729 244 312 188
Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV 689 290 159 173
Kia Niro 573 222 190 151
Ford Mustang Mach-E 544 181 165 218
Kia EV9 453 156 151 140
Volvo C40 Recharge 450 135 168 159
BMW iX 393 121 128 138
Subaru Solterra 352 145 102 74
Cupra Born 334 153 79 75
Hyundai Ioniq 6 330 96 149 97
Nissan Leaf 300 78 142 110
Mini Cooper E/SE 298 15 158 234
Mercedes-Benz EQB 273 56 123 121
Mini Countryman E/SE 262 0 110 248
Porsche Taycan 236 126 35 73
Renault Megane E-Tech 212 81 86 41
Peugeot e-2008 207 40 143 0
Lexus RZ450e 174 49 48 65
Fiat 500e/Abarth 500e 156 84 43 23
Audi e-tron/Q8 e-tron 152 66 37 40
Mercedes-Benz EQE 143 36 49 52
LDV eDeliver7 132 28 52 47
Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV 116 19 35 48
BMW i5 99 42 30 24
Peugeot e-Partner 81 26 33 20
Audi e-tron GT 77 44 16 11
Mercedes-Benz EQC 70 52 8 4
Chery Omoda E5 67 0 0 67
Genesis GV60 58 20 23 12
Foton Mobility T5 54 12 33 2
Lexus UX300e 54 20 22 8
Renault Kangoo E-Tech/ZE 51 3 20 9
Polestar 3 42 0 12 42
Ford E-Transit 40 15 16 13
Kia EV5 40 0 40 0
BMW i7 29 8 11 6
LDV eT60 18 5 3 10
Jeep Avenger 17 0 1 17
Mercedes-Benz EQS 17 2 4 11
Genesis GV70 Electrified 16 4 6 2
Rolls-Royce Spectre 15 5 10 4
Hyundai Mighty 12 2 7 4
LDV eDeliver 9 12 0 3 9
Mini Aceman E/SE 12 0 0 12
Lotus Eletre 10 0 6 10
Jaguar I-Pace 9 3 2 4
SEA Electric (MD) 9 7 2 0
LDV Mifa 9 8 0 2 7
Mercedes-Benz EQV 8 4 0 1
Mercedes-Benz eVito Van 7 2 1 4
Peugeot E-Expert 6 0 0 6
Lotus Emeya 5 0 3 5
Genesis G80 Electrified 4 1 0 3
Mazda MX-30 3 3 0 0
Mercedes-Benz eVito Tourer 3 1 0 2
SEA Electric (HD) 3 3 0 0
Audi Q4 e-tron 1 0 1 0
Iveco Van (LD) 1 0 1 0
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 1 0 0 1

[Syndrome]

Has the EV market reached saturation point?

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Has the EV market reached saturation point?

Probably not, but this is the point where it departs from the S curve of new tech adoption that guys like Tony Seba were saying it would take up in 2017.

[EBSXR6]

Jim Farley announced a similar policy in August.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/29/b...uck/index.html