Further context around the 'chip shortage'

Franco Cozzo · 03-10-2021, 01:16 AM

I thought this would be interesting to discuss, looking a bit deeper into the 'chip shortage' issue that's iced everyone's production capabilities.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/h...ly-170762.html

I thought this snippet is interesting:

Quote:

One approach that few carmakers seem to be exploring because of obvious reasons is investing in a modern chip design. Carmakers are still sticking with old chip platforms that remain in high demand right now (in fact, foundries have already moved to a new design and don’t want to expand old design capacity because it’d only be a short-term investment), as migrating to a new platform requires additional spending, especially in the testing phase, just to make sure everything is running properly.

On the other hand, Tesla is the living proof that redesigned electronics using a new-generation chip architecture is the right way to go, especially as the supply in this market isn’t by any means short, and turning to production shutdowns isn’t thus required. But for Tesla, things are a lot easier, especially as it’s a tech-oriented company and therefore developing the underlying software is much more convenient than for a traditional carmaker.

It's put a little further context around one of the problems, are the manufacturers using legacy architectures/designs for their electronics?

https://fortune.com/2021/09/17/chip-...tor-stone-age/

Quote:

When it comes to the electronic circuits that power our everyday lives, the automobile is simultaneously the world’s most expensive consumer good and the one that runs on the cheapest possible semiconductor chips.

Moore’s law of ever-increasing miniaturization seemingly never reached the automotive industry. Dozens of chips found in everything from electronic brake systems to airbag control units tend to rely on obsolete technology often well over a decade old. These employ comparatively simple transistors that can be anywhere from 45 nanometers to as much as 90 nanometers in size, far too large—and too primitive—to be suitable for today’s smartphones.

When the pandemic hit, replacement demand for big-ticket items like new cars was pushed back while sales of all kinds of home devices soared. When the car market roared back months later, chipmakers had already reallocated their capacity.

Now these processors are in short supply, and chipmakers are telling car companies to wake up and finally join the 2010s.

“I’ll make them as many Intel 16 [nanometer] chips as they want,” Intel chief executive Pat Gelsinger told Fortune last week during his visit to an auto industry trade show in Germany.

Carmakers have bombarded him with requests to invest in brand-new production capacity for semiconductors featuring designs that, at best, were state of the art when the first Apple iPhone launched.

“It just makes no economic or strategic sense,” said Gelsinger, who came to the auto show to convince carmakers they need to let go of the distant past. “Rather than spending billions on new ‘old’ fabs, let’s spend millions to help migrate designs to modern ones.”

Cars always seem to run microwave oven level electronics in comparison to consumer electronics, I find it interesting that they're using technology that dates back to when the first iPhone was introduced, 15 years ago.

Is it that maybe the processing power demands of cars are so low that they don't 'need' the capability of modern architecture? It's obvious that the industry detests change, that could be because of its corporate accountant overlords rather than the Poindexters in the propeller hats who do all the hard yards inventing/designing stuff on shoe string budgets.

oldel · 03-10-2021, 04:00 AM

Not suprising at all. Cutting edge tech often doesn't get into the average car until it's matured.
It's party reliability (old tech used in space or air for same reasons), partly because it doesn't need to be and no one needs it. Look how long cars had cassette decks, look how disastrous it is if a car fails tech wise.

When a shuttle crashed, car or aircraft under performed it's usually much worse than a phone or pc crashing.
Also not many want a computer/phone on wheels, especially when driven by others that want a phone/pc on wheels. The people that want it are the ones most likely to crash when 'driving'.

The stuff in cars only needs to be reliable and run at temp extremes without cooling, not full of the latest chips (which would be under using their capabilities with the downside of no proven reliability - certainly no extra reliability)

But I guess this is going to be a turning point, there's a shortage of basic old silicon, and no desire for anyone to fill the void to produce extra 10c chips for legacy/auto/microwave/appliance etc products.

Metdevil · 03-10-2021, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldel

Cutting edge tech often doesn't get into the average car until it's matured.
It's party reliability (old tech used in space or air for same reasons), partly because it doesn't need to be and no one needs it. Look how long cars had cassette decks, look how disastrous it is if a car fails tech wise.

When a shuttle crashed, car or aircraft under performed it's usually much worse than a phone or pc crashing.
Also not many want a computer/phone on wheels, especially when driven by others that want a phone/pc on wheels. The people that want it are the ones most likely to crash when 'driving'.

Can I just say that a car is the very last thing I want to be utilising the latest tech :p
We live in a world where power tools come with bluetooth connectivity, printers refuse to print unless you download an app and use their ink, and TVs lose functionality after having support dropped after only a year.

The last thing I want is to have my car refuse to start because I haven't installed the latest firmware update. If they really wanted to, they could lock cars to single owners and completely cripple the used car market by charging subsequent owners for an 'unlock key' to get it out of limp mode.

We all know how quickly tech evolves, phones and computers are considered 'outdated' after being only months old. Our FG Falcons came with iPhone connectivity only for Apple to change the plug they use.

I'm perfectly fine with keeping tech out of cars, let's go back to cassettes

slowsnake · 03-10-2021, 09:55 AM

I am not into new technology, as in a new phone that does everything except take calls!
My logic tells me that when Silicon Valley produce a quicker, faster, slimmer or foldable phone, or should be called hand held PC, it's using obsolete technology!....as in chip size and capacity?

You can't tell a computer dummy like me that they have not used the chip in a brand new phone to design and produce a smaller, bigger capacity chip ready for the next Gen smart phones?

That's why I use my old Nokia, phone calls and random photos on the run, it's perfectly functional, and fit for purpose, the function it was designed for.

Metdevil · 15-07-2022, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Can I just say that a car is the very last thing I want to be utilising the latest tech :p
We live in a world where power tools come with bluetooth connectivity, printers refuse to print unless you download an app and use their ink, and TVs lose functionality after having support dropped after only a year.

The last thing I want is to have my car refuse to start because I haven't installed the latest firmware update. If they really wanted to, they could lock cars to single owners and completely cripple the used car market by charging subsequent owners for an 'unlock key' to get it out of limp mode.

We all know how quickly tech evolves, phones and computers are considered 'outdated' after being only months old. Our FG Falcons came with iPhone connectivity only for Apple to change the plug they use.

I'm perfectly fine with keeping tech out of cars, let's go back to cassettes

I know it's an old thread, but I just wanted to bump this to say that this is exactly the thing I was talking about:

https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/shop/ls/dp/Seat_Heating_SFA_gb

BMW are charging £15 per month to use the hardware that already exists in your car...

CobraJet351 · 03-10-2021, 10:20 AM

The auto industry is being held back technologically? No way.

Truth be told if the auto industry was always at the cutting edge of technology we'd probably be in flying cars that fun on good thoughts by now.

Citroënbender · 03-10-2021, 11:01 AM

Is Tesla tech really that “cutting edge”? I’d have thought it mostly sits around a second-generation iPad (for comparison).

Wait until the locked-down eastern states are freed; the more pressing and permanent issue of neuron shortages will be writ generously on SD cards of all our dash cams.

And to further speak of Silicone Valley and driving, hasn’t Ms Katie Price got herself in a spot of bother?

slowsnake · 03-10-2021, 11:34 AM

At least she can drive a 1 star rated car, well she does supply her own "airbags"!

Franco Cozzo · 03-10-2021, 11:43 AM

Everyone in here seems to misinterpret the article as adding features rather than updating architecture that the hardware in their computer system use, it's nothing to do with locking you out of your car and having to pay the manufacturer if you buy a second hand car, they could do that already of they wanted.

It's about them using 15 year old architecture that the manufacturers are reluctant to provide manufacturing capability towards, because the only people requesting it are the car manufacturers.

Maybe that running all the systems in a car have such low processing power requirements that they don't need to move to updated silicone? Could there be improvements in better, faster hardware or once we went to sequential injection and ignition, that was the end of the efficiency improvements for ICE?

Could there be a cost saving if they switched to say the 'system on a chip' design that phone manufacturers use?

There was obviously a change when cars went to OBDII standards and particularly CAN - the amount of 'live data' you can monitor with a diagnostic scanner on a modern car is nuts, and that's with old technology.

Metdevil · 03-10-2021, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Everyone in here seems to misinterpret the article as adding features rather than updating architecture that the hardware in their computer system use, it's nothing to do with locking you out of your car and having to pay the manufacturer if you buy a second hand car, they could do that already of they wanted.

It's about them using 15 year old architecture that the manufacturers are reluctant to provide manufacturing capability towards, because the only people requesting it are the car manufacturers.

Maybe that running all the systems in a car have such low processing power requirements that they don't need to move to updated silicone? Could there be improvements in better, faster hardware or once we went to sequential injection and ignition, that was the end of the efficiency improvements for ICE?

Could there be a cost saving if they switched to say the 'system on a chip' design that phone manufacturers use?

There was obviously a change when cars went to OBDII standards and particularly CAN - the amount of 'live data' you can monitor with a diagnostic scanner on a modern car is nuts, and that's with old technology.

I was responding to the quoted post by oldel about casettes, not the chip architecture.

BENT_8 · 03-10-2021, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Everyone in here seems to misinterpret the article as adding features rather than updating architecture that the hardware in their computer system use, it's nothing to do with locking you out of your car and having to pay the manufacturer if you buy a second hand car, they could do that already of they wanted.

It's about them using 15 year old architecture that the manufacturers are reluctant to provide manufacturing capability towards, because the only people requesting it are the car manufacturers.

Maybe that running all the systems in a car have such low processing power requirements that they don't need to move to updated silicone? Could there be improvements in better, faster hardware or once we went to sequential injection and ignition, that was the end of the efficiency improvements for ICE?

Could there be a cost saving if they switched to say the 'system on a chip' design that phone manufacturers use?

There was obviously a change when cars went to OBDII standards and particularly CAN - the amount of 'live data' you can monitor with a diagnostic scanner on a modern car is nuts, and that's with old technology.

They're all the same Franco, they have marketing propoganda machines that convince the consumer their product is cutting edge whilst only spending tbe bare minimum on components to maximise profit margin, so whilst that 15yo technology keeps the masses happy why would they invest in genuine cutting edge tech.

Theres not too many people would line up to buy a 15yo phone or PC for the same coin as a current spec version if you knew what a modern examle can do, but in the absence of knowing any better its accepted in a 70k vehicle if it does what they tell you it should/can.

They drip feed advancements to generate repeat business and it works for them so why not.

Franco Cozzo · 03-10-2021, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

They're all the same Franco, they have marketing propoganda machines that convince the consumer their product is cutting edge whilst only spending tbe bare minimum on components to maximise profit margin, so whilst that 15yo technology keeps the masses happy why would they invest in genuine cutting edge tech.

Theres not too many people would line up to buy a 15yo phone or PC for the same coin as a current spec version if you knew what a modern examle can do, but in the absence of knowing any better its accepted in a 70k vehicle if it does what they tell you it should/can.

They drip feed advancements to generate repeat business and it works for them so why not.

It would be interesting to hear from the propeller hats, an electrical engineer who has experience in the automotive industry, what they could acheive, do or simplify with having access to better, more modern technology.

Would you end up having so many linked computer systems in a car if you had more processing power? Surely there's cost reduction through being able to have less parts/modules. Also electrical hardware would have to be one of the cheapest components for a manufacturer to buy that goes in a car compared to the drive train components.

Thats what Bosch does as well, they'll have things they've created that can solve problems but they won't offer solutions until there are government pressures forcing the hands of automotive companies to make improvements in certain areas, then they'll suddenly come out of the blue with a new solution to the problem thats been waiting on the shelf for a while.

I feel if we left it to the automotive companies we'd all be driving cars with Ford 385 series V8 with 3 gears doing 27.5L/100km

oldel · 04-10-2021, 03:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Everyone in here seems to misinterpret the article as adding features rather than updating architecture that the hardware in their computer system use, it's nothing to do with locking you out of your car and having to pay the manufacturer if you buy a second hand car, they could do that already of they wanted.

It's about them using 15 year old architecture that the manufacturers are reluctant to provide manufacturing capability towards, because the only people requesting it are the car manufacturers.

I did cover it but then mentioned outdated car tech being slow generally with an example of cassettes that every ran with.

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldel

The stuff in cars only needs to be reliable and run at temp extremes without cooling, not full of the latest chips (which would be under using their capabilities with the downside of no proven reliability - certainly no extra reliability)

But I guess this is going to be a turning point, there's a shortage of basic old silicon, and no desire for anyone to fill the void to produce extra 10c chips for legacy/auto/microwave/appliance etc products.

Point is cars have to run in temp extremes with a high level of reliablity because even though they try, people don't throw them away after 2 years. Even people that lease or sell on want them working afterwards.

High level chips aren't more reliable, automakers don't need the features. They want reliability, working in extreme temps without cooling, dependability, longevity.
I bet you could find a 386/486 pc and just plug in it today and it will work. I bet all p3 and athlons wont, the motherboards will be dead.
Same for laptops. I had a 14 year old one that the gpu seems to fail due to heat. One chip, too many pins to hand solder and the solder cracked due to heat. A trip to the oven or under a heat gun to reflow and it worked for another few months. That's the exact stuff automakers don't want.
Simple chip stuff in a 1990s LKM or IHKR can be hand soldered (or more excact, big blobs of easy to do solder whichever way it's done in assembly).

Big single chips that are over kill, less reliable, less likely to put up with temp extremes aren't favoured by automakers.

I bet every disposible chinese junk electronics you have are just a single chip solution and it ends up junk in a few years.
I bet any old vintage electorinics you have still working are discrete simple chips just like automakers use. If not the case, well it certainly is for me.

But as I said, I guess they can't call the shots anymore. They may be forced to use more expensive, less reliable single chip solutions and then have to abandon simple double sided circuit boards with easy soldering and be forced to go to multilayer heat flow circuit boards too.

hawke · 04-10-2021, 08:30 AM

A couple of years ago, I went cross country from just on the Iranian border through a couple of Stans through to Western China. Many of the cars/people movers we travelled in were ex Japanese, Korean or Chinese, but there were no local dealers or parts suppliers. Every town we travelled through was ringed with repairers, who fixed everything. I suppose that being ex Soviet satellite countries gave them a start in fixing things.

Getting to the point. These guys were also fixing the failed electronic boxes in these cars, along with making new springs, axles and anything else. When I asked them where they got the electronics, they said just about everything was available from China. So I suppose that using old architecture helped them a great deal.

jpd80 · 03-10-2021, 11:53 AM

The chips that were in short supply at Ford were for the VDU graphic which seems to control a lot of key systems these days. There were around 45,000 drivable but incomplete F Series pickups built and stored at the start of August, by now over 23,000 of them have been completed and delivered.

stevefreestyle · 15-10-2021, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

The chips that were in short supply at Ford were for the VDU graphic which seems to control a lot of key systems these days. There were around 45,000 drivable but incomplete F Series pickups built and stored at the start of August, by now over 23,000 of them have been completed and delivered.

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

**Fordman1** · 15-10-2021, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevefreestyle

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

Everyone has a shortage, not just Ford.

stevefreestyle · 16-10-2021, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fordman1

Everyone has a shortage, not just Ford.

However not everyone is hit as hard as Ford.

Sprintey · 20-10-2021, 08:16 PM

Very interesting thread to read and it lends to the idea that if something is simple and works, it should remain simple and continue to work.

I'm the bearer of bad news, for if the semiconductor shortage abates, there's this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...l-car-industry

The jist I got was that as China was short of coal (wonder how?) they ordered factories to reduce output. Add this to a monopoly on magnesium production, and inauspicious times result.

"While a shortage of semiconductors has plagued the global auto automotive industry this year, the market is now turning its focus to magnesium, a hardening agent of aluminum. Such a shortage could paralyze the aluminum billet production used to make engine blocks, gearboxes, frames, body panels, and rims, among other critical items for automobiles in Europe and the Americas. "

(The Ideas-Men amongst you are probably thinking: "Let's just go back to iron-blocks,"...)

Bossxr8 · 15-10-2021, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevefreestyle

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

What do you mean by Fords JIT Policy? It's pretty much an industry wide system, invented by Toyota.

nitro50th · 04-10-2021, 12:59 PM

Cars have such long lead times.

From the time a ground up design is started to when the finished car hits the market can be 5 years or more. With the rate modern tech evolves these days, I'm not surprised a new car will have out dated tech on board not long after the customer has bought it.

People forget how complex a new car can be.
Surely a car Manufacturer would find it hard to "keep up" when there is so much time, investment and expectation involved in producing a new car.

Franco Cozzo · 04-10-2021, 10:56 PM

Thought this is rather appropriate - this is used - to this day to control wiper systems in a vehicle:

This could be done via the BCM and it could have been done through electronics 25 years ago, not this 1970s year 9 school project.

Single layer PCB with a couple transistors, diodes, resistors, capacitors and a timer relay.

oldel · 05-10-2021, 01:09 AM

That's the kind of stuff I'm grateful of.
When I was young I drove 20-30 year old cars I needed to know how to tune and rebuild carbs when they go wrong.
Now I'm older and I drive 20-30 year old cars I need to know how to read simple circuit diagrams and do simple soldering when they go wrong.

It would suck if every time something goes wrong in the 'old cars of the future' the only solution was a $1-5k module replacement. EG wipers don't work, replace the "BEM" equivalent - which may be a $3k 2" PCB/box because it also does a/v, a/c, dash etc because it's just a single "system on chip" and does literally everything besides engine. That just will go towards making cars more disposable as soon as they're out of warranty if there's no way to DIY repair.

E: I'm not fighting it, obviously car makers don't mind simple electronics either. But I guess the writing is on the wall because none is making enough simple discrete chips.

Maybe the future will be different - buy a $40k chinese car and throw it out after 7 years as no one will want buy it s/h - because there's no way to easily repair, no right of repair etc, it's all system on chip, integrated and not possible to field repair. IE cars become very expensive mobile phone/tv type disposable goods. When stuff is simple that can;t ever happen as off the shelf 'project kits' supply parts. When it's system on chip the manufacturer holds everyone to ransom charging or restricting at will.

Nikked · 05-10-2021, 08:56 AM

With a car too, there is more space, so needing the latest tiny chipware isnt essential.

Franco Cozzo · 05-10-2021, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikked

With a car too, there is more space, so needing the latest tiny chipware isnt essential.

It's not so much the car manufacturers requirements, it's what their supply chain is willing to do for them - the industry is taking a back seat to other customers who are moving along with technology where the majority of their production capabilities and resources are allocated.

It comes a point like what's happening now where that they have a group of customers who won't change, the supplier will manufacture this legacy product that they want at some point - just not right now and they won't allocate more resources to it.

Remember at the start of the pandemic they all dumped their orders and left the supply chain holding the bag, their suppliers then pivoted towards catering to the electronics industry.

Now the manufacturers are stamping their feet wanting their previously cancelled orders yesterday.

**cs123** · 06-10-2021, 11:33 AM

If you have never written code for embedded systems you might not realise the challenge involved.

An app written for a computer or phone leverages the operating system, drivers, APIs. They are written at a high level and abstracted from the physical hardware.

Embedded systems execute code directly against the chip. They directly manipulate ports, registers and interrupts. There is no operating system, drivers or APIs to abstract this. You change the chip, you change your code and you change a lot of onboard circuits.

Doing that requires a lot of expense in design, training, probably development tools and testing. Think of the requirements for something like vehicle stability control. Think of the testing required, think of the exposure the company has if it has a glitch. You don't move away from something that is proven without a lot of investment.

If you are starting from a clean sheet like Tesla then you get to adopt the latest and greatest. If you have legacy investment, then you need to iterate.

Franco Cozzo · 06-10-2021, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cs123

If you have never written code for embedded systems you might not realise the challenge involved.

An app written for a computer or phone leverages the operating system, drivers, APIs. They are written at a high level and abstracted from the physical hardware.

Embedded systems execute code directly against the chip. They directly manipulate ports, registers and interrupts. There is no operating system, drivers or APIs to abstract this. You change the chip, you change your code and you change a lot of onboard circuits.

Doing that requires a lot of expense in design, training, probably development tools and testing. Think of the requirements for something like vehicle stability control. Think of the testing required, think of the exposure the company has if it has a glitch. You don't move away from something that is proven without a lot of investment.

If you are starting from a clean sheet like Tesla then you get to adopt the latest and greatest. If you have legacy investment, then you need to iterate.

Right - so when you keep buying legacy product and your supply chain turns around and says no or it's no longer available, do you do the work before or after your production line has stopped in multiple locations around the world?

From experience the supply chain will give lots of warning before they turn around finally say no/no longer available.

**cs123** · 06-10-2021, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Right - so when you keep buying legacy product and your supply chain turns around and says no or it's no longer available, do you do the work before or after your production line has stopped in multiple locations around the world?

From experience the supply chain will give lots of warning before they turn around finally say no/no longer available.

What do you mean by legacy? You can still buy ICs and Microcontrollers designed in the 70s and 80s. They still work fine and do the job.

The manufacturers negotiate with a vendor to buy components. If the vendor is willing to tool up and make them they will do a deal. If not, the customer will either find a different vendor or reassess their requirements.

This chip shortage isn't just about "legacy" silicon. It's impacting lots of things like graphics cards, mobile phones, laptops...

Bossxr8 · 06-10-2021, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cs123

If you have never written code for embedded systems you might not realise the challenge involved.

An app written for a computer or phone leverages the operating system, drivers, APIs. They are written at a high level and abstracted from the physical hardware.

Embedded systems execute code directly against the chip. They directly manipulate ports, registers and interrupts. There is no operating system, drivers or APIs to abstract this. You change the chip, you change your code and you change a lot of onboard circuits.

Doing that requires a lot of expense in design, training, probably development tools and testing. Think of the requirements for something like vehicle stability control. Think of the testing required, think of the exposure the company has if it has a glitch. You don't move away from something that is proven without a lot of investment.

If you are starting from a clean sheet like Tesla then you get to adopt the latest and greatest. If you have legacy investment, then you need to iterate.

That's what OP and others aren't getting. Changing these things costs money, a lot of it, and since the current ones do the job they are required to do, there is absolutely zero incentive to spend money making new ones.

The semi-conductor shortage is passing, and they are setting up new semi-conductor factories in the usa, so future supply should never be a problem.

Tesla can use new chip designs cause they were designed from scratch, without any existing components from previous versions to draw from.

Franco Cozzo · 06-10-2021, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cs123

What do you mean by legacy? You can still buy ICs and Microcontrollers designed in the 70s and 80s. They still work fine and do the job.

The manufacturers negotiate with a vendor to buy components. If the vendor is willing to tool up and make them they will do a deal. If not, the customer will either find a different vendor or reassess their requirements.

This chip shortage isn't just about "legacy" silicon. It's impacting lots of things like graphics cards, mobile phones, laptops...

Start by reading the first post of this thread - it says exactly that.

Their supply chain isn't going to bend over backwards increasing production capacity on old legacy designs that the automotive industry doesn't want to change from.