Severe weather outlook 2011/12

**DJM83** · 26-10-2011, 08:33 AM

Ok as it turns out im a bit of a weather geek, weather fascinates me. Doesnt look promising.
Seems the outlook isnt all that good for the storm season, and even more so QLD.

http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/mai...k-2011-12.aspx

Quote:

The Weather Channel is forecasting an increased number of tropical cyclones and bushfires this severe weather season compared to last year.

With weak La Niña conditions confirmed in the Pacific, above average rain is also expected but thankfully flooding will be less severe than during the 2010/2011 season. The coming six months will also bring the threat of severe thunderstorms and heat waves as Australia’s severe weather season approaches this October.

Rainfall and Flooding

La Niña has become synonymous with flooding as a result of above average rainfall. This year is likely to see a re-emergence of both but on a smaller scale than last year.

“Above average rain through northern and eastern Australia is likely to once again prompt broad-scale flooding. Areas which will see a return of above average rain include; Queensland, the Northern Territory, northern parts of Western Australia, north-east parts of South Australia, much of New South Wales and northern Victoria,” says Dick Whitaker, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

“However, even with a weak La Niña, any resulting floods are unlikely to reach the severity and frequency of the 2010/2011 severe weather season due to less rainfall and drier conditions this past winter,” he continues.

“Southern Victoria and Tasmania at this stage will not be affected by the weak La Niña and will likely have below average rain, removing them of heightened flood risk,” says Whitaker.

Tropical Cyclone activity

The Australian cyclone season runs from November to April and The Weather Channel expects a more active season compared to last year.

“This year is likely to be a more active season than last year when despite strong La Niña conditions we saw only 11 cyclones. We are expecting a total of around 12 to 13 cyclones this year in Australian waters, but on average only half of our cyclones actually cross the coast,” says Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

“About 5-6 cyclones can be expected off the north-west coast of Western Australia and two of these should cross the coast, one of which is likely to be severe (category 3 or above),” he continues.

“Off the Queensland coast, 4-5 tropical cyclones are likely, with one or two coastal crossings. While off the north coast between the Kimberley and Cape York Peninsula, four cyclones are likely, three of which should cross the coast,” Saunders continues.

“If La Niña conditions strengthen over the next few months as predicted by some models we may add one or two more cyclones to the forecast for each region,” says Saunders.

Days with Severe Thunderstorms

Severe weather season traditionally kicks off in October but the first severe thunderstorms usually occur earlier in August or September.

“Thunderstorm numbers this year should actually be relatively close to average, even with a weak La Niña. However, if stronger La Niña conditions do develop, Brisbane and possibly Sydney would most likely see fewer severe storms,” says Saunders.

“The forecast number of days with severe thunderstorms from October to April within 150 km radius of the CBD is:
Sydney- 15-19
Brisbane- 18-22
Canberra- 13-17
Melbourne- 7-11
Adelaide- 4-8
Hobart- 2-6
Perth- 1-5

Bushfire outlook

The bushfire season is well underway. Compared to last year’s almost dormant season, an increase of bushfires is possible this time around.

“After ten years of drought and rampant bushfires followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2010, it is only reasonable that Australian’s are unsure of what to expect this year. The potential for major fires across southern Australia over the next six months is higher than in 2010,” says Whitaker.

“Last years La Niña event caused Australia to record its second wettest year on record, with that rain comes increased fuel load. With drier conditions expected over the southern states including; New South Wales, Victoria, much of South Australia and Tasmania combined with increased fuel load, puts us at greater risk of bushfires,” he continues.

“The main fuel source this year is grass. Large areas of the mainland have experienced prolific grass growth with Queensland the most problematic. Fire dangers are a definite issue until at least the end of September and into the first half of October. However, wet season rains thereafter should moderate the situation in that state.”

Expected Heatwaves

Heatwaves are amongst the most lethal of all weather events, thankfully this season should see only an average number of heatwaves across the south of the country.

“Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra are likely to each see one heatwave,” Whitaker concludes.

flappist · 26-10-2011, 08:45 AM

Yep, another bad tourist summer is not something that is need up here.
I had planned a road trip to Ayre's Rock at christmas but it looks like that may fall through.

But it was like this back in 74-79 and what goes around comes around....

NAK302 · 26-10-2011, 08:47 AM

um..the carbon tax will fix it

wrongwaynorris · 25-01-2012, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GT-0733

um..the carbon tax will fix it

Ofcourse it will , Juliar said so .

**buggerlugs** · 30-10-2011, 08:14 PM

Old bloke up the road reckons whenever he gets itchie testicles, we are in for rain !! He reckons he got them last year and he has them again now..........

350125GO · 31-10-2011, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Old bloke up the road reckons whenever he gets itchie testicles, we are in for rain !! He reckons he got them last year and he has them again now..........

Science in action there mate

**buggerlugs** · 24-01-2012, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 350125GO

Science in action there mate

Must be working ( his itchy nuts ) 225mm up here since 9.00am this morning. 86mm in one hour. Still absolutely bucketing down here now. We are locked in as the front bridge has gone under by 2 foot.........

Pedro · 24-01-2012, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Must be working ( his itchy nuts ) 225mm up here since 9.00am this morning. 86mm in one hour. Still absolutely bucketing down here now. We are locked in as the front bridge has gone under by 2 foot.........

Its on the way to John Holmes proportions here on Mt Tamborine ... 9 inches since yesterday afternoon and still raining cats n dogs at 10.00 pm

atec77 · 31-10-2011, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Old bloke up the road reckons whenever he gets itchie testicles, we are in for rain !! He reckons he got them last year and he has them again now..........

Perhaps more than pne bath per annum ?

TheSneakiness · 31-10-2011, 11:20 AM

Nice storm we had last night, I was expecting it in the afternoon cause it was so humid but the sun come out instead and I got chargrilled.

Adamz Ghia · 31-10-2011, 11:59 AM

Victoria will be in a spot of bother if we get a hot summer. The amount of growth in the bush is the most I've seen for years, hopefully they're on top of the burn offs this season...

HenryFordJr · 31-10-2011, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rapid_Axe

Nice storm we had last night, I was expecting it in the afternoon cause it was so humid but the sun come out instead and I got chargrilled.

You're from the Gold Coast I take it?

We got nothing on the northside of Brisbane, just a 5 minute shower and some thunder lol..

**GasoLane** · 31-10-2011, 02:19 PM

I remember some anonymous weatherperson on ABC radio last December predicting a really bad cyclone season for QLD this year.
Supposed to have happened at the end of the Cyclone season, did they get lost? (The cyclones, not the weather guy)

TheSneakiness · 31-10-2011, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HenryFordJr

You're from the Gold Coast I take it?

Nope, in the Sunnybank area. Used to be on the Goldie though.

gtfpv · 31-10-2011, 02:39 PM

well i went fishing yesterday , the weather report said it might rain in the morning , we did get a drizzle , but it only lasted a minute then i got severely sunburnt on the back of my neck .

csv8 · 31-10-2011, 05:15 PM

Flying from Adelaide to Brisbane, last night, (30th Oct) Virgin diverted to Sydney, put the passengers up at the Airport Ibis, Sydney. Suprised Ibis had so many rooms vacant, with Qantas debacle..Summer weather will be interesting...

atec77 · 31-10-2011, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJM83

Ok as it turns out im a bit of a weather geek, weather fascinates me. Doesnt look promising.
Seems the outlook isnt all that good for the storm season, and even more so QLD.

http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/mai...k-2011-12.aspx

Having seen the 1974 floods , those just passed and this impending problem prove one certain thing
local government doesn't plan more than the shortest possible time

Halfmo Rocks · 31-10-2011, 05:31 PM

living in the blue mountains, bushfires are the big scary thing...bring the rain on i say...stop the fires

**DJM83** · 24-01-2012, 06:34 PM

Well the wet season has well and truly arrived.

csv8 · 24-01-2012, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJM83

Well the wet season has well and truly arrived.

It sure has !!! Brizzy's just a bit damp!!! plz everyone slow down and don't cross flooded creeks...

**DJM83** · 24-01-2012, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by csv8

It sure has !!! Brizzy's just a bit damp!!! plz everyone slow down and don't cross flooded creeks...

Agreed, it isnt pleasant out there.
152mm since 9am yesterday here at home.
And 80 the day before.

lymasc · 24-01-2012, 10:12 PM

i'm looking on the bright side, while ever its raining we wont be getting 38 to 40 degree heat....its raining here now... :(

grandpa_spec_F6 · 24-01-2012, 10:59 PM

Well our pool has flooded, the back yard subsequently flooded, now the front is flooded.... even though it's slanted downhill.

Water can't get away fast enough so it's starting to flood the top of the driveway and pooling at the side of the house... hope the garage doesn't leak!

TC200six · 24-01-2012, 11:21 PM

Heaps of flooding partly from blocked drains near where I am today, but the amount of rain has been huge, I've been seeing cascades of water simply coming from cemented driveways

**DJM83** · 25-01-2012, 08:28 AM

A mate of mine lost his extensively modded XR5 last night aswell

**Peuty** · 25-01-2012, 09:01 AM

What were the circumstances Dal?

**DJM83** · 25-01-2012, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peuty

What were the circumstances Dal?

Up in Nambour his wife crossed a bridge didn't see the water over the road it swamped the car she panicked and tried to start it but water came over the door she bailed through the window.

trbo 6 · 25-01-2012, 09:57 AM

My AU XR8 ute was flood damaged from a blocked up drain late last year. The weather has been crazy!

TheSneakiness · 25-01-2012, 11:33 AM

Bit of water floating round at the moment. My wife nearly got cleaned up by a red Commodore ute on the Pacific Motorway yesterday morning but luckily there was one of those "cheese grater" barricades as she likes to call them that caught the car and flung it back in the opposite direction.

lilmattie · 25-01-2012, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rapid_Axe

Bit of water floating round at the moment. My wife nearly got cleaned up by a red Commodore ute on the Pacific Motorway yesterday morning but luckily there was one of those "cheese grater" barricades as she likes to call them that caught the car and flung it back in the opposite direction.

I bet she's appreciative of that barrier. I'm glad she's ok.

Still looking pretty wet out towards Ipswich and Toowoomba too. There'll be a lot of runoffs into the creeks and rivers over the next few days.
Not as bad as last year - at least there's some breaks between the falls.