Falcon Sales for 2012.... Predictions ?

[EB#]

The sales figures of the Falcon over the 2011 period has prompted
many discussions on the success and prospective future of the model
in Australia. It's common knowledge that the total sales have declined
over the years due to a number of factors.....

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741

However, how will things go for this year ?
I reckon it's a pretty important one for Ford Australia and the Falcon....

What is your prediction for the 2012 period ?

My guess is a bit bleak at ....... 16,250, as I'm not sure buyers will pay
a 6 cylinder price for a 4 cylinder Falcon.

[Smoke Pursuit]

They should do better then last year with LPI and 4 pot... But who knows...

It all depends on how aggressive they with fleet customers... Sadly they are still missing a wagon and XR8, while XR8 sold in low numbers wagon made up for on average 500 sales a month + So there's 6000 units straight away that have been lost for good... Plus another 2500 XR8s (including utes) the picture gets worse and worse, 8500 sales lost never to return.

As you say its an important year... Even though 2016 is the golden year at this point you only have to look at Mitsubishi with the 380 to see how quick things change when you start to get poor sales month after month, Falcon is lucky that it has Territory to support it at this point, without Territory Falcon would possibly be dead and gone.

[prydey]

2012 will see falcon break back through the 20000 barrier but i don't think the sales will start to really pick up until the 2nd half and into 2013.

regardless of what i read on here, i think falcon is a fantastic product but will be at least into the 2nd quarter before all new engines are online together. things don't happen overnight which is why i think the start of the year will still be a bit slow.

[BDA074]

Originally Posted by prydey

2012 will see falcon break back through the 20000 barrier but i don't think the sales will start to really pick up until the 2nd half and into 2013.

regardless of what i read on here, i think falcon is a fantastic product but will be at least into the 2nd quarter before all new engines are online together. things don't happen overnight which is why i think the start of the year will still be a bit slow.

Originally Posted by Brazen

I have to have something that can tow my horsefloat. So I would just get another Commodore.

(my EcoLPI FGII ute arrives in a fortnight)

+1
FG2 and EcoBoost will tip back over 20,000

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

They should do better then last year with LPI and 4 pot... But who knows...

It all depends on how aggressive they with fleet customers... Sadly they are still missing a wagon and XR8, while XR8 sold in low numbers wagon made up for on average 500 sales a month + So there's 6000 units straight away that have been lost for good... Plus another 2500 XR8s (including utes) the picture gets worse and worse, 8500 sales lost never to return.

As you say its an important year... Even though 2016 is the golden year at this point you only have to look at Mitsubishi with the 380 to see how quick things change when you start to get poor sales month after month, Falcon is lucky that it has Territory to support it at this point, without Territory Falcon would possibly be dead and gone.

Agree with that.

2012 will see things pick up and hopefully get better in 2013 as word of mouth gets around. Its on thing having the product there, getting the message out and it proving itself to the consumers is another.

[turbodewd]

People seem to forget that what were previously Falcon stationwagon sales are now Territory sales. Add the numbers together and they arent as bleak and its a valid calculation coz the Terri and Falcon share so much kit.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

People seem to forget that what were previously Falcon stationwagon sales are now Territory sales. Add the numbers together and they arent as bleak and its a valid calculation coz the Terri and Falcon share so much kit.

Wagon and Territory were once sold next to each other and Territory was still doing better then it is now (back in the old days of 2004 / 2005).

Therefore while Territory has taken some Falcon wagon sales it hasn't covered the difference between what Ford sold when they were next to each other.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

Wagon and Territory were once sold next to each other and Territory was still doing better then it is now (back in the old days of 2004 / 2005).

They were also pumping 500odd units a day out of the factory as opposed to the 209 they make now.

...............

I'd say going off production numbers they would be in the low 20's if they sell everything they make.

[outback_ute]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

People seem to forget that what were previously Falcon stationwagon sales are now Territory sales. Add the numbers together and they arent as bleak and its a valid calculation coz the Terri and Falcon share so much kit.

As tranquilized posted in the Wheels March 2012 thread, here are the combined production numbers:


Says to me that Falcon sales had stabilised around 30k for Falcon and 12k for the ute prior to the dropping of the wagon and Egas. Even the 2010 figure is consistent with that given the Egas was killed in Sept or Oct. From memory wagons were about 400/mth so say 4500 sales gone there, and that half the previous Egas customers won't return as they are happy with whatever they bought instead, and I am thinking jpd80 is in the ballpark. However the economic uncertainty could put a dent in that and the market as a whole.

[Joe5619]

I say 25K for sedon, 10K for Ute & 19K for Territory = 54K in total

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I say 25K for sedon, 10K for Ute & 19K for Territory = 54K in total

Your dreaming if you think Falcon sedan will ever crack 25 k again, same for ute.

Ford is not pushing Falcon ute, they want to push ranger and do away with Falcon ute eventually...

Falcon ute is struggling to compete, no XR8 and RTV is slowly making sure of that.

Also the Territory hype is dropping off, lots of dealer demos and Ford cars made a good 2011 for Territory, this year will see a decline.

[TheSneakiness]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I say 25K for sedon, 10K for Ute & 19K for Territory = 54K in total

Optimistic much?

I will go out on a limb and say it won't rise and it won't fall. The EB and LPG engines will make up numbers where the fall would generally happen.

[EB#]

Some good points....

How about some more hard number guesses ?
Maybe we can revisit the thread in Jan 2013 and see who got closest to the mark ?

[prydey]

Originally Posted by EB92

How about some more hard number guesses ?
Maybe we can revisit the thread in Jan 2013 and see who got closest to the mark ?

20 360!

it will ave about 1300-1400 sales in the first half, rising closer to 1800-2000 month in the 2nd half.

[FacultY]

1 000 000

[05_ENFORCER]

I've done my bit for the 2012 sales figures but I believe they will stay around the same mark, if not make a small positive move.

.

[71cop]

12491

[mr smith]

Falcon ute dropped by 2013.

Total sales just over 15K. LPi and 4 pot wont save it.

My though is that the Falcon and Commodore have lost their counrty backroad toughness and are at a disadvantage around town due their size. For suburban work there are many cheaper and better value cars and for country work there are better choices. They are trapped in trying to be all things to all people.

[z80]

12,000 units for 2012.

[P6LTD351]

Originally Posted by z80

12,000 units for 2012.

No way. I think they will crack the 20 000 mark.
If they do only sell 12 000, the Falcon won't make it past 2013 let alone 2016.

[z80]

Originally Posted by eb2monty

No way. I think they will crack the 20 000 mark.
If they do only sell 12 000, the Falcon won't make it past 2013 let alone 2016.

Yeah...was just extrapolating the 40% reduction of the previous year.

I reckon there may be a small blip, but sadly I think 12000 is the number.

[z80]

Originally Posted by z80

12,000 units for 2012.

Changing my mind.

Now thinking 8,000 units.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by z80

Changing my mind.

Now thinking 8,000 units.

With four down days next month, that basically means 18 days production which
works out to 3762 vehicles, that's still like 1500 Falcon, 1500 Terry and 762 Ute..

Now February sales equal the above figures, then Ford will probably stay on 4-day weeks.

Not saying this will happen:
If it is significantly less, then Ford might look at a down balance and do four or five days weeks.
If Ford goes to 140 or 150/day, it could mean the engine plant closes and a switch to
corporate engines but that would only happen if EcoLPI was a colossal failure...

The above is purely supposition, I hope Falcon sales climb up to 1500/1800.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

With four down days next month, that basically means 18 days production which
works out to 3762 vehicles, that's still like 1500 Falcon, 1500 Terry and 762 Ute..

Now February sales equal the above figures, then Ford will probably stay on 4-day weeks.

Not saying this will happen:
If it is significantly less, then Ford might look at a down balance and do four or five days weeks.
If Ford goes to 140 or 150/day, it could mean the engine plant closes and a switch to
corporate engines but that would only happen if EcoLPI was a colossal failure...

The above is purely supposition, I hope Falcon sales climb up to 1500/1800.

I think part of the reason they are needing down days for March is because Ecoboost has been delayed. When the calender was done last year they would have pencilled in Ecoboost for late 2011 launch, with January usually being a quite month so February and March had been set up to run full Ecoboost production, hence why there are no days off in Feb and only public holiday in March. Not having Ecoboost has stuffed the numbers I think, hence the down days next month.

They wouldn't shut the engine plant now, 6 cylinders still make up the bulk of production numbers. Of the 200 or so cars Broady build at least 140 are 6's. It would also mean they would have to cut ute as it only uses a 6 except for GS. But i'm sure ute will probably be axed in 2014 anyway, I don't think they will give it the update.

I actually think Territory will come close to outselling Falcon this year, it has full order books and a solid waiting list, Falcon doesn't.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I think part of the reason they are needing down days for March is because Ecoboost has been delayed. When the calender was done last year they would have pencilled in Ecoboost for late 2011 launch, with January usually being a quite month so February and March had been set up to run full Ecoboost production, hence why there are no days off in Feb and only public holiday in March. Not having Ecoboost has stuffed the numbers I think, hence the down days next month.

Infuriating

They wouldn't shut the engine plant now, 6 cylinders still make up the bulk of production numbers. Of the 200 or so cars Broady build at least 140 are 6's. It would also mean they would have to cut ute as it only uses a 6 except for GS. But i'm sure ute will probably be axed in 2014 anyway, I don't think they will give it the update.

Fingers crossed that LPG hits and goes..

I actually think Territory will come close to outselling Falcon this year, it has full order books and a solid waiting list, Falcon doesn't.

Wouldn't surprise but what then......
Does Territory then become the vehicle and Falcon an addition?

[Dave R]

I think it all comes down to how the market receives EcoBoost. As we have seen, LPi is not the sales saviour that we hoped it would be, so there is a lot riding on EcoBoost for this year. I think the 4 cylinder has a lot of fleet appeal so we will see what happens.

[Windsor220]

Predictions?

Pain

[Spammy]

Originally Posted by EB92

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741


What is your prediction for the 2012 period ?

.

Unfortunately there is no discernable trend in those numbers - so hard to guess.

[Brazen]

18,000 most ecoboost will be a I6 substitute, so steady as she goes for me. The real tragedy is the effect diesel could have had especially ute.

[Brazen]

18,000 most ecoboost will be a I6 substitute, so steady as she goes for me. The real tragedy is the effect diesel could have had especially ute.