Petrol prices (present hysteria vs reality)

MoreHPformyXR6 · 05-09-2006, 03:39 PM

Thought I would extract part of an article in September 2006 Wheels I found interesting. They had a Ford TX Territory long term. (12 months) Fuel consumption varied over almost 21,000km from a best of exactly 10.0L/100km to 20.8L/100km. The average for there entire year driving was 14.5L/100km.

It's interesting to calculate the effect of increased petrol prices on the cost of running something like the Territory. When it joined our fleet, the price of a litre of 91-octane regular unleaded was down near a $1.00 a litre. The consumption log shows the lowest price actually paid was $1.05. Now, its more like a $1.35. Our final fill-up price was $1.37.In round figures, this is an increase of 30 percent.

But what is the actual impact in dollars & cents?

We covered exactly 20,707km in the Territory, about 30 percent more than the average Australian driver, burning 3000.95 litres of fuel. The average we paid over a 12 month period was a $1.25 per litre, for a total bill of $3741.

If the prices had stayed as low as $1.05, the annual the fuel bill would have totalled $3151. With prices at $1.37, the annual cost adds up to $4111. The differance is $960 pa or $18.50 per week. For all the hysteria about petrol prices, in reality the effect is far from ruinious.

(In note petrol is around a $1.22.9 in Adelaide today without a discount docket tradionally our cheapest day).

**PepeLePew** · 05-09-2006, 03:43 PM

Interesting....my missus's Terri has sat consistently on 13.6l/100...and by her own admission she has three driving gears, stop, cruise, full throttle.

All city driving tho...

The above argument is exactly the same I've been using around the workplace, I get tired of the uncalculated whinging on the real impact of the prices....yes there are people who $18 a week is meaningful to, but thats about 10% of the complainants

chevypower · 05-09-2006, 03:55 PM

For all the hype, petrol prices are double now what they were only 5 yrs ago, so the cost is double what it was back then, if you do low kms the impact is less than it is if you do a large number of kms. It amazes me when people talk about how little it has changed, and they do 15,000-20,000kms per year, i couldnt do that few kms if i tried my hardest, a V8 or Territory would cost me $150 a week in fuel at least, that's why i want a diesel electric hybrid, so i can spend $150 on other things

**PepeLePew** · 05-09-2006, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chevypower

For all the hype, petrol prices are double now what they were only 5 yrs ago, so the cost is double what it was back then, if you do low kms the impact is less than it is if you do a large number of kms. It amazes me when people talk about how little it has changed, and they do 15,000-20,000kms per year, i couldnt do that few kms if i tried my hardest, a V8 or Territory would cost me $150 a week in fuel at least, that's why i want a diesel electric hybrid, so i can spend $150 on other things

Everyone has their priority list and what their time in their vehicle is worth to them. And what they can afford. Right now I'll stick with my 600km's a week i my gas guzzler, but check back later in the decade

MoreHPformyXR6 · 05-09-2006, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chevypower

For all the hype, petrol prices are double now what they were only 5 yrs ago, so the cost is double what it was back then, if you do low kms the impact is less than it is if you do a large number of kms. It amazes me when people talk about how little it has changed, and they do 15,000-20,000kms per year, i couldnt do that few kms if i tried my hardest, a V8 or Territory would cost me $150 a week in fuel at least, that's why i want a diesel electric hybrid, so i can spend $150 on other things

It's all relative my point is that if $18.50 a week is going to make a differance to your lifestyle & put you under the financial pump then you probally have to face the fact that you cant afford to keep your car.

chevypower · 05-09-2006, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreHPformyXR6

It's all relative my point is that if $18.50 a week is going to make a differance to your lifestyle & put you under the financial pump then you probally have to face the fact that you cant afford to keep your car.

I had fun with a V8 Berlina for about 6 months, i had my thrill, drove fast, clocked up over 25000kms in such a short time, - it isnt $18.50 extra - i now have a 4 cyl which uses 1/3 to 1/2 the fuel of the Berlina. My savings are about $80 to $100 per week! Car companies should be developing performance cars that get under 5L per 100 (diesel-electric), there was a 3 litre diesel electric BMW X5 that put out over 1000Nm and smoked all 4 wheels, you could guarantee it would beat any petrol V8, and use MUCH less fuel. I think high petrol prices are good because it forces us to come up with more environmentally friendly ways, i just think we do too little, too late

By the way, there is no real way to measure EXACTLY your fuel consumption, your speedo/odometer can be up to + or - 10% inaccurate, which means your odometer can read 100,000 but in reality can be anywhere between 90,000 and 110,000

gs1973 · 05-09-2006, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chevypower

For all the hype, petrol prices are double now what they were only 5 yrs ago, so the cost is double what it was back then, if you do low kms the impact is less than it is if you do a large number of kms. It amazes me when people talk about how little it has changed, and they do 15,000-20,000kms per year, i couldnt do that few kms if i tried my hardest, a V8 or Territory would cost me $150 a week in fuel at least, that's why i want a diesel electric hybrid, so i can spend $150 on other things

Fuel has in no ways doubled in the last 5 years..15 maybe.My argument is if your job is that well paid that you can afford to travel 600km's a week either A-Put up with it,B-Buy a smaller car to travel in,or C-Move to where your job is located!Nothing shits me more than people whinging about fuel prices and interest rates because they are living that far out of their means it's not funny...Just remember these fuel prices and interest rates are only bad till they go up further.We all should be thankfull for the standard of living we have compared to most of the world...

out:

chevypower · 06-09-2006, 12:00 AM

I totally agree, although GS1973 maybe you must have not read my message properly, i said high prices was a good thing i wasnt whinging, i am just disputing $18 a week increase for most cases and reminding that in 1999 petrol was between 58 and 67cpl, in 2002, it was around 77-85 - close enough to double for me Petrol is gonna go up and up in price, and less and less in supply and up and up in demand, thats the reality. So like i said, lets hope the manufacturers start doing something and selling efficient cars regardless of size and power, they can do much better than the 10-15L per 100km they are getting on average now

If you buy your car to just have it sit in the garage, that's up to you, but I want a car that is driveable and enjoyable, and 50,000km a yr is not over the top - like i said X5 with Diesel electric and 1000Nm, dont you think that motor would work in a Territory, or would u rather 190kw and 380Nm and 15L per 100 and drive it only 400km per week?

leonbray · 06-09-2006, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs1973

Fuel has in no ways doubled in the last 5 years..

You might try this with LP GAS

in 1999 = 19.9c per litre
in 2005 = 39.9c per litre - November 2005
in 2006 = 64.2c per litre - August 2006

all Brisbane north side prices

You tell me what other commodity could increase by nearly 60% in less than 12 months without a public outcry

rhysy_boi · 05-09-2006, 04:11 PM

my mates always say it doesn't bother them fuel prices, thuogh they work n live only close and would not cover very many k's a week, i however cover 600km+ a week jsut for work and the inflating fuel prices hurt me in the back pocket being only a first year apprentice.

i would be happy for fuel to sit at $1.20, i know it's still expensive but damn it's alot better than $1.40+ which it's been hovering around lately.

Rhyso

bArNsY · 05-09-2006, 04:22 PM

Ruinous....you don't hear that word very often!

IMO by not buying chocolate bars everytime you go to the supermarket you will make a comparable saving to the increase price in fuel!

Adam

gtfpv · 05-09-2006, 04:24 PM

fuel should be tied to inflation . dont quote me . maybe it is . i dont know . but it would be nice if it were. than wages would keep up. they cant keep telling us inflation is around 3 % when fuel and house prices and food and bills keep going up much higher than 3 % p.a.

4.9 EF Futura · 05-09-2006, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtfpv

fuel should be tied to inflation . dont quote me . maybe it is . i dont know . but it would be nice if it were. than wages would keep up. they cant keep telling us inflation is around 3 % when fuel and house prices and food and bills keep going up much higher than 3 % p.a.

Lol... i know you said not to quote you.... but...

I guess there tends to be smoke and mirrors around inflation figures - but overall you will find that its a pretty fair representation of what we spend our money on. Inflation as it's quoted in the press refers to the consumer price index... the change in price for an unchanging "basket of goods". (bucketloads of info on the CPI over at the ABS site for any interested parties).

Fuel is in the basket, but is contained within transportation... which is also weighted. The overall effect of fuel price rises is somewhat watered down.

Which is quite reasonable IMO. You cant let something like "fuel and bannanas" dictate the outcome of the economy when they probably dont even represent 10% of most people's income (remembering you are not being forced to drive a HUGE, fuel guzzling V8). You have to consider such outliers and the real impact they are having.

Setting the price of fuel to inflation would be a great idea if:

a) it were not a finite resource
b) if we had any control over the price of inputs

But any form of price ceiling will ensure shortages (see opec's embargo against the west in the 70s... otherwise good intentions in setting price ceilings in the US resulted in shortages and rations... exactly what happens when you move away from market pricing).

It's all good and well to sell fuel for $1 litre - but you wont be able to sustain the level of demand it will produce.

But yeah...

$1/L x 68L tank = $68
$1.25/L x 68L tank = $85

$17 may be a lot of money for some people - i would say that if $17 a tank puts you into the red then your vehicle selection is inappropriate for your budget.

A lof of the hysteria, IMO, comes from people who refuse to make sensible economic decisions themselves in preference for demanding the government do something about it.

Face facts - not everyone can afford to fuel a large car. I'd really like a 52 inch plasma, perhaps i should demand the government impose price controls on TVs so that more australians can afford 52 inch plasmas. Or maybe i could just settle for the 38cm that is within my budget?

gtfpv · 05-09-2006, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Lol... i know you said not to quote you.... but...

I guess there tends to be smoke and mirrors around inflation figures - but overall you will find that its a pretty fair representation of what we spend our money on. Inflation as it's quoted in the press refers to the consumer price index... the change in price for an unchanging "basket of goods". (bucketloads of info on the CPI over at the ABS site for any interested parties).

Fuel is in the basket, but is contained within transportation... which is also weighted. The overall effect of fuel price rises is somewhat watered down.

Which is quite reasonable IMO. You cant let something like "fuel and bannanas" dictate the outcome of the economy when they probably dont even represent 10% of most people's income (remembering you are not being forced to drive a HUGE, fuel guzzling V8). You have to consider such outliers and the real impact they are having.

Setting the price of fuel to inflation would be a great idea if:

a) it were not a finite resource
b) if we had any control over the price of inputs

But any form of price ceiling will ensure shortages (see opec's embargo against the west in the 70s... otherwise good intentions in setting price ceilings in the US resulted in shortages and rations... exactly what happens when you move away from market pricing).

It's all good and well to sell fuel for $1 litre - but you wont be able to sustain the level of demand it will produce.

But yeah...

$1/L x 68L tank = $68
$1.25/L x 68L tank = $85

$17 may be a lot of money for some people - i would say that if $17 a tank puts you into the red then your vehicle selection is inappropriate for your budget.

A lof of the hysteria, IMO, comes from people who refuse to make sensible economic decisions themselves in preference for demanding the government do something about it.

Face facts - not everyone can afford to fuel a large car. I'd really like a 52 inch plasma, perhaps i should demand the government impose price controls on TVs so that more australians can afford 52 inch plasmas. Or maybe i could just settle for the 38cm that is within my budget?

interesting info . THANKS.

BFXR8Silhouette · 05-09-2006, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

$17 may be a lot of money for some people - i would say that if $17 a tank puts you into the red then your vehicle selection is inappropriate for your budget.

A lof of the hysteria, IMO, comes from people who refuse to make sensible economic decisions themselves in preference for demanding the government do something about it.

Amen to that

bArNsY · 05-09-2006, 04:30 PM

inflation is up near 4% that's why the interest rate rise. My money is on another rise before christmas.
Be greatful for reasonable prices. some countries are well over $3.00/L like France

Adam

cupic · 05-09-2006, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bArNsY

inflation is up near 4% that's why the interest rate rise. My money is on another rise before christmas.
Be greatful for reasonable prices. some countries are well over $3.00/L like France

Adam

THE french have long ago switched from petrol to diesel as with some EC countries offering rebates to swich.So $3p/l petrol is way too much even for them .Diesel might be in order cheaper to run longer distance per tank.Its basic ecomonics

Steffo · 05-09-2006, 04:31 PM

I spent $50 a week (35L of PULP) in the Fiesta on average.

Back in the days of $1ish regular with $1.10 premium, it would have been $38.50/week. $11.50 difference. Not that big a deal. One less pack of cigarettes a week if you're a smoker and you've made that up...

merlin · 05-09-2006, 04:42 PM

I do about 600km a week. That $20 a week might seem insignificant - $20 a week = $80 a month extra which to me is a fair slug, given that I already have a massive mortgage (Sydney small 3 bdrm house in outer suburbs) and there has been a couple of rate rises. I earn good money as does my wife, no kids yet and we don't go out. I would hate to think of the struggle families with kids and lower incomes are going through at the moment. I think the Wheels writers need to get back to reality - this reeks of Turnbull foot in mouth syndrome.

Peej · 05-09-2006, 05:18 PM

Fuel still is one of the cheapest liquids to buy per litre. Some people have no hesistation on spending 30-40 bucks on a bottle of rum, which works out to be only 700ml's or whatever, or $2.50 for 600ml of coke or soft drink, $7.00 for a drink at a club.... I just think fuel has been too cheap for too long

gozza · 05-09-2006, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peej

Fuel still is one of the cheapest liquids to buy per litre. Some people have no hesistation on spending 30-40 bucks on a bottle of rum, which works out to be only 700ml's or whatever, or $2.50 for 600ml of coke or soft drink, $7.00 for a drink at a club.... I just think fuel has been too cheap for too long

Yep..People have got comfortable with cheap fuel in the past when it should never of been that cheap

T3ts50 · 05-09-2006, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peej

Fuel still is one of the cheapest liquids to buy per litre. Some people have no hesistation on spending 30-40 bucks on a bottle of rum, which works out to be only 700ml's or whatever, or $2.50 for 600ml of coke or soft drink, $7.00 for a drink at a club.... I just think fuel has been too cheap for too long

But not everyone drinks 60+ Litres of Coke a week.

EL_futuraistic · 05-09-2006, 05:19 PM

I think anyone who does the mileage, fuel price hurts... especially if you have to fill up off the "price cycle". I do 600+ kms a week, and whilst only running a 1.8 if i have to fill up on a thurday or friday that 10cpl more makes a difference to the total price.

Radio reports petrol to drop to $1.20 a litre by the end of the week, conditional on the cease of fighting in the middle east.

Abacus · 06-09-2006, 12:12 AM

My 5.0 AU normally gets 17-20L/100km in Sydney metro driving. It's been in the panel beaters for the past two weeks, and I been driving a 10 year old 4 cyllinder Camry. I don't know what the capacity is, and I don't care. Total POS.

The Camry's about 25% better on fuel than the V8. No question about what I'd rather drive- AU all the way, and bollocks to the extra fuel.

With a VSL LPG install happening in November the AU should be a damn sight more economical than the Camry. You can have your cake and eat it too.

Smoked · 06-09-2006, 02:01 AM

Back when i owend my EB, i payed around $60 a fill when petrol was around $1 a litre.

As it increased to $1.37 at one point, it was $85 to fill. for a student, thats damn expensive per week.

Put my Current car against it, I get more milage, for alot less, average fill price is around $30-$35.

Iphido · 06-09-2006, 06:17 AM

While some EU countries have expensive fuel Its not comparible.

If your country is only 200 km long or 500km wide and you live in a area very close to where you work, which is in a small regional town. Then no problem.

This is europe. Germany and France a typical examples of this. Outside of Paris and Berlin the country side breaks up into small little towns where everyone generally lives locally and works locally. And its all connected by fantastic road networks. And if that is not enough there are extensive bike ways and public transport.

Where as in Australia we have some major settlements spread out only the coast and then almost nothing. Lots of people are trying to drive through Sydney because of work not being locally based. 80-100 km daily journeys with traffic lights every 50 metres.

Add to that wages are usually higher in comparison (as is the cost of living in general). So the comparison isn't clear cut.

I think what everyone is worried about is the speed petrol is rising in price. 30% in a year is a significant jump.

If this trend continued (30% every year) for the next 10 years (which conservatively, governments/oil companies would try to maintain if we have infact hit peak oil to stop massive shocks).

$1.30 a litre now (2006)
$1.70 next year (2007)
$2.20 the year after (2008)
$2.86 the year after (2009)
$3.71 (2010)
$4.83 (2011)
$6.27 (2012)
$8.16 (2013)
$10.60 (2014)
$13.79 (2015)
$17.92 (2016)

So in ten years we could be paying nearly $20 a litre. $1400 to fill your falcon.

Scarey no?

james22 · 06-09-2006, 07:43 AM

ok so if $17 isnt big enough to blow your budget what about $33.12?

$1.49 p/l x 68L = $101.32 per tank. And when you only go on average 400km per tank thats 0.25c per km.

Doesnt sound like much till you compare it to $1 p/l which works out to be 0.17c per km.

So far in total, fuel prices have risen in the country by 50%.
Thats a fair whack in anyones terms. Unfortunately its likely to get worse for us all, :gren: