Covid 19 -

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

There is some incentivizing in our awful healthcare system to record as many deaths as possible from covid. I.e. monetary benefit per case

Got any proof to back up that nonsense?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by leesa

Got any proof to back up that nonsense?

You do realise that mostly broncos is talking about the US health system.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You do realise that mostly broncos is talking about the US health system.

And is a Trump supporter so facts may be hard to come by

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You do realise that mostly broncos is talking about the US health system.

woops, no, I didn't think anyone with a broncos username would be anything other than an aussie!

[prydey]

Originally Posted by leesa

woops, no, I didn't think anyone with a broncos username would be anything other than an aussie!

Ford Bronco?

[Citroënbender]

Wait, they named a car after a football team?

[T3rminator]

Interesting timing of the release of the Wuhan files. Could also probably have fitted right into the Election 2020 thread, but that's now closed

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/a...ntl/index.html

~30% under reported in the early days (3,900 vs 5,900). Had expected the numbers to be much bigger.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 1st, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

10 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.252%. NSW recorded 5 cases and WA recorded 3.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.214% and active cases stay at 72.

The UK had a higher 14,149 cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 603 deaths.

Just over 168k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,271 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.970% and active cases drops to 39.0% with the raw numbers rising and now over 5.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 164M, the last 1M in 2 days;
The US passes 14M cases;
Europe passes 400k deaths;
The USA completes 196M, India 141M, Brazil 25M, Italy 22M, and Australia 10M tests.

Cyprus (318);
Uganda (576);
Palestine (2,357);
Azerbaijan (4,426) and
Serbia (7,999)
... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 2nd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

11 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR remains at 3.252%. NSW recorded 6 cases, Queensland 3 and WA recorded 2.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.214% and active cases stay at 72.

The UK had a higher 15,450 cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 648 deaths.

Just over 184k new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,672 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.963% and active cases remain at 39.0% with the raw numbers rising and now over 5.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Asia passes 17M cases;
The USA completes 199M, India 142M, Russia 77M, UK 44M, and M tests.

Sri Lanka (878);
Moldova (1,717);
Panama (2,028); and
Turkey (31,923)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[Tickford.]

NSW quarantine hotel cleaner tested positive today.

A lot of heat on Berejiklian for allowing sub contractors to work at various hotels & sites. The cleaner used public transport to travel from Minto to Central while possibly infectious.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tests-positive

Hasn't lessons been learnt from VIC's hotel quarantine debacle? What's Gladys doing? What has she been up to lately?

[FTE217]

shock horror close the borders, where's the inquiry, call the national gaurd, SM must be going off, meh.
The nation learnt enough thanks to Dan the hero.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

NSW quarantine hotel cleaner tested positive today.

A lot of heat on Berejiklian for allowing sub contractors to work at various hotels & sites. The cleaner used public transport to travel from Minto to Central while possibly infectious.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tests-positive

Hasn't lessons been learnt from VIC's hotel quarantine debacle? What's Gladys doing? What has she been up to lately?

Heard on radio they are not sure if this person caught it at the hotel or whether it was through community transmission. Genomic testing underway and may take 48 hours to confirm. So please, don't go blaming gold standard NSW hotel quarantine just yet.....

[Yellow_Festiva]

How come there are obvious cases in NSW yet on the radio they are saying there has been nothing for 2X days?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

How come there are obvious cases in NSW yet on the radio they are saying there has been nothing for 2X days?

Originally Posted by Tickford.

NSW quarantine hotel cleaner tested positive today.

A lot of heat on Berejiklian for allowing sub contractors to work at various hotels & sites. The cleaner used public transport to travel from Minto to Central while possibly infectious.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tests-positive

Hasn't lessons been learnt from VIC's hotel quarantine debacle? What's Gladys doing? What has she been up to lately?

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Heard on radio they are not sure if this person caught it at the hotel or whether it was through community transmission. Genomic testing underway and may take 48 hours to confirm. So please, don't go blaming gold standard NSW hotel quarantine just yet.....

Really? Do you really want me to reach back in time and we can all discuss the the ~850 people Victoria murdered killed?

Just when I was starting to get over it..

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

How come there are obvious cases in NSW yet on the radio they are saying there has been nothing for 2X days?

The zero cases they refer to are community transmission ones. That counter will get reset to zero tomorrow.

The active cases that most states have are fly ins. They are all returned travellers and go straight in to quarantine. No risk to the community.... Well, until a cleaner gets it...

[Tickford.]

NSW Health asking people who travelled on the below services at the following periods to get tested immediately and self-isolate, until further advised by NSW Health.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 3rd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

16 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR drops to 3.250%. NSW recorded 9 cases and the NT recorded 6.

9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.208% and active cases drop to 70.

The UK had a lower 14,878 cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 414 deaths.

Just over 206k new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,876 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.955% and active cases drop to 38.9% with the raw numbers rising and now over 5.5M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Both the case and mortality numbers set new recorded highs.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 65M with the last 1M taking 2 days;
Global deaths pass 1.5M with the last 50k taking 5 days;
Global cases set a new daily high of 12,398 (2/12);
North America sets a new daily case high with 226,727 (2/12);
The USA completes 201M, India 143M, Germany 29M, Argentina and Morocco 4M M tests.

Cyprus (348);
Latvia (930);
Belarus (1,701);
Moldova (1,727);
Lithuania (2,450);
Palestine (2,516);
Croatia (4,534) - 11% above the previous high;
Indonesia (8,369) - 34% above the previous high;
Russia (28,145);
Turkey (32,381); and
USA (206,106)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[russellw]

Just in case we needed proof that things in the UsofA aren't getting better here are the graphs for their case and death numbers:





.. and the two predictive modelling graphs with case numbers now well above even the higher prediction line and likely to reach 18M before the end of the year while the mortality numbers are about line-ball with the upper prediction and on target to surpass 300k by year end although I'll predict now that it will overtake the upper predictive line shortly.

[Citroënbender]

This is quite sad; not just for mortality but the position of technology within.

https://twitter.com/roto_tudor/statu...34101265682434

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

This is quite sad; not just for mortality but the position of technology within.

https://twitter.com/roto_tudor/statu...34101265682434

wouldnt let me see but now it does

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by wodahs

wouldnt let me see but now it does

image

It's a bunch of iPads on stands

These are iPad stations being prepared for virtual ICU end of life visits by a palliative care doc I know. Jesus.

I hope I'm wrong but I expect that CMR to be shooting up over the coming weeks and months. They can't get a vaccine out quick enough there.

[russellw]

The US CMR has been dropping but only because the rapid increase in case numbers has been pushing it down. As we already know, the cost of all those cases is a subsequent increase in deaths but the undetermined number is at what level. About all we can say with any degree of accuracy is that it is likely somewhere between 1-3% (AU is 3.25%, NZ is 1.2%) of identified cases where reasonable testing volumes are available. At that level the ~200k cases a day volume equates to 2,000 future deaths per day at the lower end of that scale - the last 10-day average has been almost 1,900/day and the last 5 days almost 2,100/day.

As an aside, in the lead-up to the NBA season in the USA all registered players were tested and 8% of the results came back positive. That may be the best indication yet as to what the real underlying community infection level is and it aligns pretty well with the US adult identified case rate of 6.3%.

[MITCHAY]

Yep Russ that is exactly what I was thinking. The huge rise in cases will in the short term lower the CMR but given that it has been a few weeks of the huge cases it was still surprising to see it keep dropping.

For every 100k cases you can expect the best case 1k deaths and probably 3-4k deaths at worst case based on what we know.

Given that they are filling up hospitals pretty quick, it's more likely to be on the worse side.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 4th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

10 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR drops to 3.249%. NSW recorded 6 cases and the Queensland/WA recorded 2 each.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.208% and active cases drop to 61.

The UK had a higher 16,298 cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 504 deaths.

Just over 220.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,920 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.946% and active cases rise to 39.2% with the raw numbers rising and now over 5.6M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Both the case and mortality numbers set new recorded highs (again).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 66M with the last 1M taking 1 days;
Europe passes 18M cases;
North America passes 17M cases;
Global deaths set a new daily high of 12,835 (3/12);
Global cases set a new daily high of 688,333 (3/12);
Asia sets a new daily case high of 133,239 (3/12) - the previous high was back on 6/9;
North America sets a new daily case high with 245,218 (3/12);
The USA completes 203M, India 143M, Russia 78M, Turkey 19M, Belgium 6M and tests.

South Korea (629);
Belarus (1,774);
Lithuania (2,518);
Panama (2,388);
Georgia (5,068); and
USA (220,643)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[T3rminator]

What is causing the spike across the world?

A relo living in HK just told me they are going through their "4th wave". Except, this time it is very concerning because they can't track and trace where 30% of the cases are coming from.

Also they are fumbling around with their restrictions, can't open bars and clubs, but open up dance studios where several clusters originated from.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What is causing the spike across the world?

I wish I could give you a definitive answer but here is the best I can do.

A lot of Europe (and parts of Asia) are now in the colder months of the year and we do know that temperature has an impact on the life-span of the virus and the infection rates.

Colder weather will also explain a lot of the USA where winter has well and truly set in but their approach to the pandemic has been sporadic, insufficient (in most cases) and careless.

Although most people don't realise it, HK is one of those places than gets cold this time of year and this current 'wave' (the last 10 days or so) is really only a spike in the previous wave which slowly (and then more steeply) climbed since July. I actually took them off my watch list as I though they had come to grips with it but will add them again now.

[T3rminator]

Vic starting to take in overseas arrivals from Monday. Are we ready?

Victoria forced to cut ADF hotel quarantine request ahead of Monday start
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/v...04-p56kr8.html

"The key sticking point between the ADF and state government was that Victoria wanted troops to assist police in patrolling every floor of 'hot' hotels housing only coronavirus-positive patients, which the ADF was unwilling to do.

Instead, they will support police in hotel lobbies by helping residents enter and exit, as well as registering staff movements and temperature checking workers before their shift."

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Vic starting to take in overseas arrivals from Monday. Are we ready?

Victoria forced to cut ADF hotel quarantine request ahead of Monday start
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/v...04-p56kr8.html

"The key sticking point between the ADF and state government was that Victoria wanted troops to assist police in patrolling every floor of 'hot' hotels housing only coronavirus-positive patients, which the ADF was unwilling to do.

Instead, they will support police in hotel lobbies by helping residents enter and exit, as well as registering staff movements and temperature checking workers before their shift."

There is no sticking points, it was initially agreed from the start police will be doing the main role of patrolling, ADF will be doing other support roles.

End of story.

[Tickford.]

So once again NSW has failed protocols. First there was the Ruby Princess debacle. Then there was the NZ arrivals that somehow managed to get on a domestic flight to Melbourne. Then a quarantine hotel cleaner catches the virus from US flight crew, and travels on public transport for almost a week before being discovered. And now two German arrivals who were meant to be in hotel quarantine in Sydney, have turned up in Melbourne!



How can NSW Health allow these slip ups to occur? Maybe Berejiklian has other issues on her mind? Like trying to find barrels for her pigs to hide in?

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 5th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

7 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR drops to 3.248%. NSW and Queensland recorded 2 cases each and WA recorded 3.

9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.203% and active cases drop to 59.

The UK had a lower 15,539 cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 397 deaths.

Just over 237k new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,740 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.933% and active cases rise to 39.5% with the raw numbers rising and now over 5.8M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. The case numbers set a new recorded high (again).

Other notable points:
Asia passes 300k deaths;
North America sets a new daily case high with 261,007 (4/12);
The USA completes 205M, India 145M and Finland 2M tests.

Cyprus (369);
Moldova (1,728);
Belarus (1,896);
Denmrak (2,115);
Lithuania (2,848);
Georgia (5,450);
Mexico (12,127);
Russia (27,872); and
USA (237,328)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.