Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Interesting site, there are a few thing where I would have to query their sources though.
money spent on illegal drugs for one... what do they count the receipts?

Things is with Oil.
The oil companies do not want to over supply we all know this drives the price per barrel down.
and we can only measure by what our current sources are taping from so
if an oil rug planted in the gulf of Mexico runs dry, pretty sure it will be shifted (with the Vanguard) to where the oil companies next planned location (not for public knowledge)

here's some previous predictions:

"The world will run out of oil in 10 years."
- U.S. Bureau of Mines (1914)
"The world will run out of oil in 13 years."
- U.S. Department of the Interior (1939 and 1950)
"The world will run out of oil and other fossil fuels by 1990."
- Paul Erlich, Limits to Growth (1973)
"The world will run out of oil in 2030, and other fossil fuels in 2050."
- Paul Erlich, Beyond the Limit (2002)




I dunno I personally believe there's plenty out there.

Yeah as time goes on and our technology to measure things improves we get a more accurate estimate.
Weather it's 15,000 days or 150,000 It will run out one day. I don't see the point of using it on things that don't require it when I think it will be better to save it to last for thousands of years so we can use it in areas where we actually want to use it.
I'm not saying we all should switch to electric tomorrow, but switching Toyota Camry's as soon as possible is better for our big V8 muscle cars and such.

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

I dunno I personally believe there's plenty out there.

even if this is true - does it really make sense to combust it? it's still a finite resource and is better used imo to make lubricants and even plastics, than just burn it and chuck it up the chimney or down the tailpipe.

[ozrunner]

But how long will Lithium etc reserves last in the future compared to how oil has with its currently used reserves which also have a futher 50 years easy and that's not counting others yet to be tapped.

If the whole world turns to EV's are there enough resources to make and keep making millions of batteries and for how long ????

Even just this year Musk made a personal plea to Oz mining companies to mine more nickel and Tesla would issue contracts for supply as Australia has the worlds largest nickel deposits.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

But how long will Lithium etc reserves last in the future compared to how oil has with its currently used reserves which also have a futher 50 years easy and that's not counting others yet to be tapped.



If the whole world turns to EV's are there enough resources to make and keep making millions of batteries and for how long ????



Even just this year Musk made a personal plea to Oz mining companies to mine more nickel and Tesla would issue contracts for supply as Australia has the worlds largest nickel deposits.

They can be recycled very effectively. And battery technology will evolve away from Lithium. This is but the first phase with real effort being put into batteries.

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[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kypez

They can be recycled very effectively. And battery technology will evolve away from Lithium. This is but the first phase with real effort being put into batteries.

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let us know when you batteries fail how you go about recycling them..

Please tell how, and what happens, no I'm generally interested because from what I've read currently, no recycling method exists which is both efficient and profitable enough to be sustainable.

surely you didn't read that on the back page of the Tesla brochure?

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by simon varley

even if this is true - does it really make sense to combust it? it's still a finite resource and is better used imo to make lubricants and even plastics, than just burn it and chuck it up the chimney or down the tailpipe.

I don't disagree Simon, but statements saying it will run out by ... I have a problem with.
we most likely will start running out of places to put our rubbish before we run out of oil.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

All 4 of my little Jap trucks run on bio diesel (used cottonseed oil, Canola oil) I'm surrounded by Canola farms here.
Apart from several steps of fine screen filtering and changing over to non perishing fuel lines its a no brainer.
After all good ol Rudolf designed the diesel engine to run on Coconut oil or basically any plant based oil.

but hang on.. that's sustainable

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

let us know when you batteries fail how you go about recycling them..



Please tell how, and what happens, no I'm generally interested because from what I've read currently, no recycling method exists which is both efficient and profitable enough to be sustainable.



surely you didn't read that on the back page of the Tesla brochure?

Actually BMW and Nissan are the ones leading the way with recycling. And Tesla are catching up (mostly because they haven't had many battery packs go end of life yet).

Also, they a repurposing the batteries. For example, you need high efficiency in a car because of limited weight and packaging. You don't need that in a home battery backup scenario. So used batteries can be given a second life in home storage after their life as car batteries.

Plenty of details about this online. Worth a read.

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[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

I don't disagree Simon, but statements saying it will run out by ... I have a problem with.
we most likely will start running out of places to put our rubbish before we run out of oil.

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kypez

Actually BMW and Nissan are the ones leading the way with recycling. And Tesla are catching up (mostly because they haven't had many battery packs go end of life yet).

Also, they a repurposing the batteries. For example, you need high efficiency in a car because of limited weight and packaging. You don't need that in a home battery backup scenario. So used batteries can be given a second life in home storage after their life as car batteries.

Plenty of details about this online. Worth a read.

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Plenty of details online without substance depends what you want to hear...

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

I think its a good thing, do it were practical and the tech is going to get much better once acceptance and volume come on board.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

Its actually the economics/practicality perspective I'm looking at.
One of the largest supplies of oil used to come from Venezuela but due to Sanctions it not getting exported now.

from the worldometers site previously posted they have 1374 years of oil in reserve.

it costs nothing to fill your car up there but people cant afford their groceries, google what a big mac costs there..

I can assure you if another source runs out they will lift these sanctions

its always about the $$$

whilst the rich cities are buying EVs the poor ones are still filled with 2 strokes and old busses.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Plenty of details online without substance depends what you want to hear...

Sigh... Ok. These are actual articles from the companies themselves. I too was sceptical of it. That's why I did my research to learn and see if my opinion was correct or not.

Just like my entire EV ownership. Started of with, "I don't think it's for me"... And I can see how they still might not be for everyone. But I can also see how they work for a lot of people (price barring).

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[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Its actually the economics/practicality perspective I'm looking at.
One of the largest supplies of oil used to come from Venezuela but due to Sanctions it not getting exported now.

from the worldometers site previously posted they have 1374 years of oil in reserve.

it costs nothing to fill your car up there but people cant afford their groceries, google what a big mac costs there..

I can assure you if another source runs out they will lift these sanctions

its always about the $$$

whilst the rich cities are buying EVs the poor ones are still filled with 2 strokes and old busses.

Same can be said for everything, its just the way of the world but good we are still progressing for the better.

Still love my ICE, but unfortunately people like us will also become the exception as cars literally become just transport, the passion will be hard to maintain in 30-50 years.

[simon varley]

the change is already here and forums like this are already the exception. Buyers don't care about the driving any more. it is just a tool to get somewhere while being plugged in to social media

We just had a major reorganisation that I thought I would never see happen. The Powertrain organisation has effectively been broken up at the expense of a bigger Connected Vehicle organisation. That shows where the company thinks the future is.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by simon varley

the change is already here and forums like this are already the exception. Buyers don't care about the driving any more. it is just a tool to get somewhere while being plugged in to social media

We just had a major reorganisation that I thought I would never see happen. The Powertrain organisation has effectively been broken up at the expense of a bigger Connected Vehicle organisation. That shows where the company thinks the future is.

Just HV sparkies mate

[whynot]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation ... interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

Yeah, I agree with your post.

Over time, the invisible hand of Adam Smith will win. If people want guilt free transportation (and, really, that is the subtle sales pitch behind EV), then manufacturers will produce EV. Once that decision is made, then customers will chase specifications like range, acceleration, safety, automation, etc. Nor do I see a great leap forward, just evolution that comes in fits and starts. But, cumulatively, over the decades, adds up to impressive hardware.

For awhile there, I was worried that the BMW i3 was the template for driving in the future. What is nice about vehicles like the Ford Mach-E is that EV doesn't have to be a Nanny-mobile.

One of my favourite memories of my old Outlander PHEV was climbing up a dirt track in the country, with the windows down, in near silence. Sure, a throbbing and burbling V8 sounds horny, but, not having it is not the end of a great driving experience.

What I do worry about is the 'cost is not a problem' aspect pushed by some EV advocates. Sure, at present, if you have a $100K to drop on a vehicle there are some nice EV options. But a fair slab of the population drive around in the third/fourth hand $5K workhorse.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by whynot

What I do worry about is the 'cost is not a problem' aspect pushed by some EV advocates. Sure, at present, if you have a $100K to drop on a vehicle there are some nice EV options. But a fair slab of the population drive around in the third/fourth hand $5K workhorse.

Yes there are people on this forum that do rely on the 2nd hand market.
Life will get tough when you fork out $5k for a 2nd hand EV with stuffed batteries.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Yes there are people on this forum that do rely on the 2nd hand market.
Life will get tough when you fork out $5k for a 2nd hand EV with stuffed batteries.

There's going to be a serious problem with 'E waste' like batteries once EVs become mainstream.

I'll be long dead and buried

Imagine automotive workshops, you won't need nearly as many as the only components you'll be doing are steering, suspension and batteries.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Imagine automotive workshops, you won't need nearly as many as the only components you'll be doing are steering, suspension and batteries.

And swap out sweaty overalls for hoodies as standard workwear for the pimply faced apprentice working on the vehicle's AI.

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by whynot

And swap out sweaty overalls for hoodies as standard workwear for the pimply faced apprentice working on the vehicle's AI.

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

There's a couple different connectors for charging already, unless SAE or the European Union sits down on this for a standard, they'll all do proprietary electrical interfaces and electrical systems.



Looks like the car has the charging circuitry which makes sense.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

There's a couple different connectors for charging already, unless SAE or the European Union sits down on this for a standard, they'll all do proprietary electrical interfaces and electrical systems.



Looks like the car has the charging circuitry which makes sense.

Already done. CCS2 is now the Global standard and has been for a couple of years now for Fast Charging and Type 2 for slower chargers. Its only US that still haven't standardised but they are moving to CCS2 and Type 2 as well.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by simon varley

the change is already here and forums like this are already the exception. Buyers don't care about the driving any more. it is just a tool to get somewhere while being plugged in to social media

Just look at the new ads. Many don't even talk about the car. Just the colour its available in (T-Roc and T-Cross for example). And looking at Camry (and most Toyotas) sales in this country, people have long given up on the thrill of the drive. Look at all the boring Dual Cab Utes that would pull the skin of the proverbial.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kypez

people have long given up on the thrill of the drive.

Big part of the 'thrill of the drive' is that it makes some noise

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Big part of the 'thrill of the drive' is that it makes some noise

Not always. I'll trade the noisy 11 second 0-100 (anything over 5.5 seconds to be fair Or 80-110 taking over 3 seconds ) for 3.4 to 100 and handling to match.

Some engine notes are downright disgusting. So no noise is better than some noises.

I love my V8's but only if they're fast. If it was all noise no go, stuff that. Like the Patrol. Sounds great 7.5 to 100. Give me a Cybertruck (if it gets here) with 2.9 to 100 and capable of towing a big load!

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[b0son]

Originally Posted by kypez

Not always.

Especially going forward. The quality of the noise goes up with the cylinder count, but with the move toward ever smaller capacity and cylinder counts, it wont be long til everything is a sub-2L turbo 4-cylinder. I just cant get excited about that.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by b0son

Especially going forward. The quality of the noise goes up with the cylinder count, but with the move toward ever smaller capacity and cylinder counts, it wont be long til everything is a sub-2L turbo 4-cylinder. I just cant get excited about that.

Yeah, I really don't care for the loud as hell but equally ear piercing note of a Golf. Sure, it might be quick but yuck!

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[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kypez

Not always. I'll trade the noisy 11 second 0-100 (anything over 5.5 seconds to be fair Or 80-110 taking over 3 seconds ) for 3.4 to 100 and handling to match.

Some engine notes are downright disgusting. So no noise is better than some noises.

I love my V8's but only if they're fast. If it was all noise no go, stuff that. Like the Patrol. Sounds great 7.5 to 100. Give me a Cybertruck (if it gets here) with 2.9 to 100 and capable of towing a big load!

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Then that's your opinion, I think most car enthusiasts will take the sound of of the car over the 0-100.
This will always be better than any Tesla in my eyes and ears
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcR6zHJBJ4A

[kypez]

Originally Posted by whynot

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

Actually, batteries are made by third parties rather than the manufacturer themselves.

Most use the 18650 battery though chemistry is a little different. Typically, you have Tesla using different chemistry but all the others use similar/same chemistry so Toyota/Nissan/BMW/Ford, etc are all interchangeable. You could even run the different chemistry cells but you'd have to have the software ready to handle it (bit like when we changed from NiCd to NiMH for domestic batteries; you have to use the correct charger for the battery).

Tesla are the ones driving development of better battery tech and have moved to the 2170 battery.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Then that's your opinion, I think most car enthusiasts will take the sound of of the car over the 0-100.
This will always be better than any Tesla in my eyes and ears
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcR6zHJBJ4A

And that's your opinion too!

I think car enthusiasts are more than just what noise a car makes. Its about the handling, the drivability, balance and steering feedback.

And the example you have there is loud and fast. And costs more than my Tesla (have you seen the new price book?! Starting at $219k!)! And now, sadly, can't be had with a V8 either. Don't care for the V6 note.

Sure, a Lambo sounds great as well but heck, I'm a car enthusiast with a realistic budget.