Australia housing bubble

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Nothing comes for free. There was significant stimulus (read cash investment from the government, both state and federal) injected into the community through various pipelines, all of which was supposed to help carry the state through a down turn in the economy. Whilst there were specific feed-in points, it was supposed to benefit everyone by stimulating spending.

At some point in time, that money needs to be recouped. And, just like it was handed out through particular feed in points, that money will be collected through particular collection points. But that will also impact the rest of the community as the costs of that are passed on.

So, everyone (in theory) benefits. And everyone (in theory) pays. No one should be surprised at this.

And those living in other states should also be concerned about their own state's debt. NSW, for example, has a debt of over $187 billion. That's about $70b more than what Victoria's current debt is. At some point in time, that money has to be repaid. You can't do that without someone feeling the pain.

Appears different sources show vastly different state debt levels?
I also heard on 3AW this morning that Vic debt is more than NSW, QLD and TAS combined?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lets be honest though, its the people who can least afford it who'll do the majority of the lifting as property investors will just pass on the additional tax to renters via additional increases.

Yes, you can say that with any expenses incurred by investors, council fees, interest rates etc. Comes back to supply vs demand. There will be a breaking point where people will walk. There are affordable rentals, just not in the prime areas. But if it gets too much, people will have no choice but to move.

Originally Posted by Charliewool

I also heard on 3AW this morning that Vic debt is more than NSW, QLD and TAS combined?

Yes it is. But set it in the context of the activities happening inside the state. Look at Tassie, it can stay stagnant as is, or build a new stadium and be inducted into the AFL. Guess how they are going to build the new stadium if they decide to do so? QLD, could stay stagnant as is, or bid for the Olympics, guess how they are going to pay for the infrastructure? Albeit they'll get a lot of help from the feds. With the mass migration, QLD gov will need to build infra to support it, guess how thats going to be paid.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lets be honest though, its the people who can least afford it who'll do the majority of the lifting as property investors will just pass on the additional tax to renters via additional increases.

Initially, yes. But over time that will have flow on effects to other sectors, too. as those people tighten their belts to cover the payments, that means the service industries they purchase form will have lower turnover, therefore demanding less from their suppliers, leading to less hours needed by the workers who then tighten their belts, etc. The flow on effect might take some time but it will flow on to most people at some point.

Originally Posted by prydey

True, but it's not something new to this generation. That's my point. Govts and countries have been borrowing money and paying it off since Adam was a boy.

The media use the debt message to sway the populace one way and then the other.

The govt use the debt message as an excuse to implement taxes or raise taxes.

Absolutely. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave it those experts to work out as to where the 'right' level of debt is. I guess even amongst those experts there'll be differing opinions. its hard to know what the 'right' answer is. I guess it would change depending on the circumstances at the time.

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Appears different sources show vastly different state debt levels?
I also heard on 3AW this morning that Vic debt is more than NSW, QLD and TAS combined?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll admit I only really looked at one source for each State, but now I've done a bit of hunting, you're right, there's a heap of different values being thrown around, In fact, I have not seen two pages that share the same numbers! I imagine that the devil will be in the detail.

I guess what we can take from all these figures tho is that there's not a huge difference between Victoria and NSW on the level of debt, and it's not just Victoria that will feel the pain for that.

Some of my sources:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...27-p5cnso.html

https://adepteconomics.com.au/wp-con...30-June-22.pdf

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal...0230320-p5ctjt

[Charliewool]

Another… Debt Vs gross state product %
(Source: Financial Times)

Whatever way you want to twist the figures, it still points to Victoria being in deep, deep poo-poo for the foreseeable future!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Initially, yes. But over time that will have flow on effects to other sectors, too. as those people tighten their belts to cover the payments, that means the service industries they purchase form will have lower turnover, therefore demanding less from their suppliers, leading to less hours needed by the workers who then tighten their belts, etc. The flow on effect might take some time but it will flow on to most people at some point.

Agreed, infact I had begun addressing that too with regards to some of the rent increases already being thrown about but deleted it so as to not confuse the two but you are very much correct that regardless of the source of increased costs, eventually it will filter through, impact on peoples spending in other areas and lead to downturns in employment.
Its a vicious circle that I cant see being rectified anytime soon.
I mean they're using a tax to repay the covid debt that'll be handed on to renters who'll then be given relief via Govco handouts, so robbing Peter to pay Paul essentially and so the wheel turns.

The root of the problem is property prices but along with much of their voting constituents, they also have their noses in the trough so wont address it for fear of backlash and loss of wealth.
So they do something to appear to fix a particular problem but just create or amplify another.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Another… Debt Vs gross state product %
(Source: Financial Times)
image
Whatever way you want to twist the figures, it still points to Victoria being in deep, deep poo-poo for the foreseeable future!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I know where your coming from Charlie, not one eyed with your experience.
You won't be insultated as directed towards me
"Sit back and enjoy the same merry go round from the same "smart ones" who post the same thing across every page."

and better still your a Victorian resident lol.....
On a side note wish I could stay to the same tune everyday, it would be so easy phhhht but I'm no expert yet one enforces they are

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by FTE217

I know where your coming from Charlie, not one eyed with your experience.
You won't be insultated as directed towards me
"Sit back and enjoy the same merry go round from the same "smart ones" who post the same thing across every page."

and better still your a Victorian resident lol.....
On a side note wish I could stay to the same tune everyday, it would be so easy phhhht but I'm no expert yet one enforces they are

?? Think you mighta mixed up posters?
I never mentioned above..

[T3rminator]

Can't wait for our dan fan club locals to chime in, where is Franco and Boss?

Old mate Charlie south americanised himself for a number of years, and unless I'm mistaken, he be a QLDer now. Don't think he has been a Vic since 20 BC, when he was running his BA GT ute at the Calder drag meets. Happy to be corrected.

A bit of austerity is prudent in this environment. Again, the ones making all the noise are the AFF dan fans and/or don't live here. Broken record, every thread, every page. Us mexicans are all dumb, morons and head in the sand...blah blah blah. Turn it up!

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Can't wait for our dan fan club locals to chime in, where is Franco and Boss?

Old mate Charlie south americanised himself for a number of years, and unless I'm mistaken, he be a QLDer now. Don't think he has been a Vic since 20 BC, when he was running his BA GT ute at the Calder drag meets. Happy to be corrected.

A bit of austerity is prudent in this environment. Again, the ones making all the noise are the AFF dan fans and/or don't live here. Broken record, every thread, every page. Us mexicans are all dumb, morons and head in the sand...blah blah blah. Turn it up!

Perhaps you need to rethink a number of points in your post.

And no fishing is allowed either so leave it out please.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Perhaps you need to rethink a number of points in your post.

And no fishing is allowed either so leave it out please.

Apologies sir, I'll turn it down.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Old mate Charlie south CENTRAL americanised himself for a number of years, and unless I'm mistaken, he be a QLDer now. Don't think he has been a Vic since 20 BC, when he was running his BA GT ute at the Calder drag meets. Happy to be corrected.!

Any brains and I’d be in Qld! Stupid me is back to being a Victorian (My aim WAS FNQ, but “certain family responsibilities” unfortunately curtailed that!)

And great memory there re: Pursuit & Calder!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Any brains and I’d be in Qld! Stupid me is back to being a Victorian (My aim WAS FNQ, but “certain family responsibilities” unfortunately curtailed that!)

And great memory there re: Pursuit & Calder!

Very few are worthy of my long term memory. Spoolman in his purple ute, and Charlie because when asked how the ute sounded with the exhaust unbolted from the centre, he said "I can't think"

Well sorry to hear you had to stay in Vic, but thank you for your financial contributions. :P Don't stress. Listen to what the economists are saying, they are bullish, the folks at TCV know what they are doing....apparently, fixed a lot of the long term loans, and investors are still putting money into the treasury bonds. Back to black in 3 years. Giddy up!

[Syndrome]

What is the FIRB doing? How many prosecutions have resulted from their investigations?

[zilo]

NZ cash rate at 5.5% now...and a lower inflation rate than Australia (6.7 Vs 7.0)

40% of people in some surveys are reporting a drop in disposable income.

Good times are a coming...bag of popcorn on hand....

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Any brains and I’d be in Qld!

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

image

Beautiful little Shepherd.

[Charliewool]

I believe Govcos (Vic) next brainwave will be capped rent prices… Dan was asked this yesterday and as usual.. No straight answer! Which in my book says.. YES
Damn good at playing politics aren’t they?
He attacks where he knows he’ll get a bit of sympathy from the unhoused masses.
How ‘bout Capped energy prices? Capped petrol pricing, Capped supermarket pricing?
Ohh NOOO… Why tackle the almighty corporates, when he can pulverise the Mum & Dad investors?

[blueoval]

Ive said it before and I'll say it again. There is an attack on the middle class. The idea is to remove that class and force them with the poorer class so that the gap to the more richer/elites will be so big, that it won't give anyone incentive to strive harder. (Ultimate removal of the Capitalist system). Rather, become just another dependent on the Government purse, own nothing and do as you are told like a good little pleb.

[roKWiz]

Don't have a problem with the rich, middle class mum and Pop property investors as long as they are not milking Govco tax breaks at the expense of everyone else.
The amount of "investors" buying new homes under the first home buyers grants were amazing.
Mum and Pop buying houses and claiming them under little Johnny's name was amazing a few years back.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/inves...170822-gy1l0c/

Make your own money spend it how you wish.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Don't have a problem with the rich, middle class mum and Pop property investors as long as they are not milking Govco tax breaks at the expense of everyone else.
The amount of "investors" buying new homes under the first home buyers grants were amazing.
Mum and Pop buying houses and claiming them under little Johnny's name was amazing a few years back.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/inves...170822-gy1l0c/

Make your own money spend it how you wish.

Exploiting loopholes in incentives I dont agree with and never have. I despise it. Much like what is happening to the NDIS system. This mentality has caused a 'screw you' attitude and continues to divide people.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by blueoval

Ive said it before and I'll say it again. There is an attack on the middle class. The idea is to remove that class and force them with the poorer class so that the gap to the more richer/elites will be so big, that it won't give anyone incentive to strive harder. (Ultimate removal of the Capitalist system). Rather, become just another dependent on the Government purse, own nothing and do as you are told like a good little pleb.

Have a similar theory to you blue, but I think there will be a split of the "middle class". Those that can ride out this wave will create a new class. Those that can't will fall back with the rest. Govco needs to keep the masses just happy enough to be content, keep working, keep paying their taxes, and not revolt. There is nothing in it for gov to keep the majority poor, there won't be enough taxes to keep their pensions going.

Typically I'd say, follow what the pollies do e.g. family trusts etc.

Check out this list of federal MPs and the number of investment properties they own.

https://www.miragenews.com/ranked-ho...ralian-545566/

And here is the list for Vic MPs. Look at the 2 Davids at the top

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/v...14-p5ckg1.html

Might give us a clue who might do what in terms of policies The devil only has 1, so we (investors) might be in strife!

IMHO rental cap is not a question of if, but when. ACT already has some form of soft cap in place. WA and QLD already talking about it. Is it a bad thing? Haven't made up my mind yet.

[roKWiz]

Do as I say, not as I do.

[Syndrome]

I saw a six bedroom home go for stupid money at auction earlier today. Two groups of middle eastern people trying to outbid each other. They will probably stuff three families into that place.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Have a similar theory to you blue, but I think there will be a split of the "middle class". Those that can ride out this wave will create a new class. Those that can't will fall back with the rest. Govco needs to keep the masses just happy enough to be content, keep working, keep paying their taxes, and not revolt. There is nothing in it for gov to keep the majority poor, there won't be enough taxes to keep their pensions going.

Typically I'd say, follow what the pollies do e.g. family trusts etc.

I like your optimism. However, I think things will go so bad, that the UN will step in and take over.

As for the family trusts. We'll see how iron clad they are if/when the UN do step in.

I know there will be a number who will say my tin foil hat is too tight on my head but I think we on the brink of a complete collapse of the world economy.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by blueoval

I like your optimism. However, I think things will go so bad, that the UN will step in and take over.

As for the family trusts. We'll see how iron clad they are if/when the UN do step in.

I know there will be a number who will say my tin foil hat is too tight on my head but I think we on the brink of a complete collapse of the world economy.

Since you mentioned the UN, now that is one organisation that is creating more trouble than good, they should be disbanded, and the world will be a better place to live in.

[Citroënbender]

IIJM or are other people looking at the “hat factory fire” in Sydney and seeing tens of thousands in re-usable bricks? While everyone bleats about materials costs…

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

IIJM or are other people looking at the “hat factory fire” in Sydney and seeing tens of thousands in re-usable bricks? While everyone bleats about materials costs…

Think it's just you, cb!

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I saw a six bedroom home go for stupid money at auction earlier today. Two groups of middle eastern people trying to outbid each other. They will probably stuff three families into that place.

Or, rent each room out for $1,000 a week!

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

IIJM or are other people looking at the “hat factory fire” in Sydney and seeing tens of thousands in re-usable bricks? While everyone bleats about materials costs…

How convenient it caught on fire for the developer.

[anobserver]

"...on the brink of a planned demolition of the world economy.."

Fixed it for 'ya.