Severe weather outlook 2011/12

[DJM83]

Ok as it turns out im a bit of a weather geek, weather fascinates me. Doesnt look promising.
Seems the outlook isnt all that good for the storm season, and even more so QLD.

http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/mai...k-2011-12.aspx

The Weather Channel is forecasting an increased number of tropical cyclones and bushfires this severe weather season compared to last year.

With weak La Niña conditions confirmed in the Pacific, above average rain is also expected but thankfully flooding will be less severe than during the 2010/2011 season. The coming six months will also bring the threat of severe thunderstorms and heat waves as Australia’s severe weather season approaches this October.

Rainfall and Flooding

La Niña has become synonymous with flooding as a result of above average rainfall. This year is likely to see a re-emergence of both but on a smaller scale than last year.

“Above average rain through northern and eastern Australia is likely to once again prompt broad-scale flooding. Areas which will see a return of above average rain include; Queensland, the Northern Territory, northern parts of Western Australia, north-east parts of South Australia, much of New South Wales and northern Victoria,” says Dick Whitaker, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

“However, even with a weak La Niña, any resulting floods are unlikely to reach the severity and frequency of the 2010/2011 severe weather season due to less rainfall and drier conditions this past winter,” he continues.

“Southern Victoria and Tasmania at this stage will not be affected by the weak La Niña and will likely have below average rain, removing them of heightened flood risk,” says Whitaker.

Tropical Cyclone activity

The Australian cyclone season runs from November to April and The Weather Channel expects a more active season compared to last year.

“This year is likely to be a more active season than last year when despite strong La Niña conditions we saw only 11 cyclones. We are expecting a total of around 12 to 13 cyclones this year in Australian waters, but on average only half of our cyclones actually cross the coast,” says Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

“About 5-6 cyclones can be expected off the north-west coast of Western Australia and two of these should cross the coast, one of which is likely to be severe (category 3 or above),” he continues.

“Off the Queensland coast, 4-5 tropical cyclones are likely, with one or two coastal crossings. While off the north coast between the Kimberley and Cape York Peninsula, four cyclones are likely, three of which should cross the coast,” Saunders continues.

“If La Niña conditions strengthen over the next few months as predicted by some models we may add one or two more cyclones to the forecast for each region,” says Saunders.


Days with Severe Thunderstorms

Severe weather season traditionally kicks off in October but the first severe thunderstorms usually occur earlier in August or September.

“Thunderstorm numbers this year should actually be relatively close to average, even with a weak La Niña. However, if stronger La Niña conditions do develop, Brisbane and possibly Sydney would most likely see fewer severe storms,” says Saunders.

“The forecast number of days with severe thunderstorms from October to April within 150 km radius of the CBD is:
Sydney- 15-19
Brisbane- 18-22
Canberra- 13-17
Melbourne- 7-11
Adelaide- 4-8
Hobart- 2-6
Perth- 1-5

Bushfire outlook

The bushfire season is well underway. Compared to last year’s almost dormant season, an increase of bushfires is possible this time around.

“After ten years of drought and rampant bushfires followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2010, it is only reasonable that Australian’s are unsure of what to expect this year. The potential for major fires across southern Australia over the next six months is higher than in 2010,” says Whitaker.

“Last years La Niña event caused Australia to record its second wettest year on record, with that rain comes increased fuel load. With drier conditions expected over the southern states including; New South Wales, Victoria, much of South Australia and Tasmania combined with increased fuel load, puts us at greater risk of bushfires,” he continues.

“The main fuel source this year is grass. Large areas of the mainland have experienced prolific grass growth with Queensland the most problematic. Fire dangers are a definite issue until at least the end of September and into the first half of October. However, wet season rains thereafter should moderate the situation in that state.”

Expected Heatwaves

Heatwaves are amongst the most lethal of all weather events, thankfully this season should see only an average number of heatwaves across the south of the country.

“Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra are likely to each see one heatwave,” Whitaker concludes.