Covid 19 -

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 1,389,776 cases in the period to 27/12 and 2,606 deaths between 28-11/1 for a CMR of 0.181% which is lower than the previous period which was 0.221%. Case numbers, however, are up by 680k (96%) over the previous period so there will be some flow on.

Thus, in the 165 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 6,727,740 cases and 21,026 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.313% which is below the 0.345% at day 150.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.





On an annualised basis, that’s 14.8M cases and somewhere between 27k (at the most recent CMR) and 46k (at the average CMR) deaths and just over one quarter of the adult population would get COVID in the year.

It should be noted that the lower figure is very close to the pre-COVID annualised deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia (26,342 in 2019) but still well above that for Influenza on its own (1,223).