Falcon Sales for 2012.... Predictions ?

[EB#]

The results are in !
The 2012 annual sales figure for the Falcon is 14,036.

In regards to the forum member estimates, here are the results:
(All estimates from the Feb 2012 bracket are considered, as there weren't many
revised estimates from the June 2012 part of the thread)

1st: 14,000 from 'BarraXR8'
2nd: 15,000 from 'MrSmith'
3rd: 13,000 from 'Homer'

Th updated historical figures table is....

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

It is interesting to note that the buying trends for large cars in Australia
have dramatically changed over the last few years, for a variety of reasons.
Personal choice, range of SUVs and sport trucks now available, fuel economy
and the 'growing' small car market are a few that come to mind.
It would certainly seem that the heady days of 2003 and 73K Falcon sales
road will not return.

A few notes of comparison from 10 years ago.....

2003
total car sales: 909,811
the highest seller, Commodore: 86,553 units or 9.5% of the market
top small car sales, Corrolla: 36,128

2012
total car sales: 1,112,032
the highest seller, Mazda 3: 44,128 units or 3.9% of the market
top large car sales, Commodore: 30,532

For those who may like to study the numbers a bit more, here are a couple
of links:
2003 summary
http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...256E140083C911
2012 summary
http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...257AE800144A1F
http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor...104-2c83p.html

[Rodge]

2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

Doesn't matter how you slice and dice this and try and explain it away, that is a very disturbing and depressing trend.

[zilo]

Anyone want to try and guess 2013?

I say....10800 for 2013

[Giant Cranium]

I'll say 9000 if they are lucky.

[stevz]

12,896

[bigwil]

13500 and if they bring back the XR8 minimum 13501

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Rodge

Doesn't matter how you slice and dice this and try and explain it away, that is a very disturbing and depressing trend.

really? the market is simply more and more diluted and segmented with every passing year. 60+ makes and over 250 models exist in the australian market. anyone who thinks models are going to continue to sell at a consistent rate in a shrinking segment is not a realist.

i don't find it disturbing or depressing. i think ford have done well to arrest the slide. the media might make it look like sales are sliding as they compare year on year, but if you look at month to month this year, they have stabilised somewhat.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Market is definately more diluted... More and more options emerging on a daily basis.

The only thing keeping Falcon sales where they are is the likes of Hertz and other rental companies. Once they pull the pin it will be all over.

Interesting to note the big decline from 2010 - 2011.... Some of which was made up of wagon loss and LPG loss for a long period.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

The only thing keeping Falcon sales where they are is the likes of Hertz and other rental companies. Once they pull the pin it will be all over.

From what I understand Ford has alway pulled the pin on them, hence the drop in sales this year compared to last?

[tranquilized]

Ignoring the badges, consider that in 2002 the top selling car had 9.5% market share, but in 2012 the top selling car only had a 3.9% share of a larger market. That fact alone tells a big part of the story.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

From what I understand Ford has alway pulled the pin on them, hence the drop in sales this year compared to last?

Nope still supplying them heaps of XR6 and G6E.

[xr6turbo270kw]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

Nope still supplying them heaps of XR6 and G6E.

Nope ford pulled the pin on hertz as they can no longer supply them with falcons so hertz are replacing them with commodores as hertz never used commodores in the past.

[Giant Cranium]

Avis is full of falcons and g6's. plenty of ecoboost also. Same with thrifty

[Elks]

Originally Posted by EB92

The results are in !
The 2012 annual sales figure for the Falcon is 14,036.

In regards to the forum member estimates, here are the results:

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

A sobering number indeed, but if you add in Falcon Wagon or Territory as we know it. Which had sales of 14,646 which was hindered by production limitations (now fixed for 2013) that gives you 28,682 units off the falcon platform.

Still 1/2 of what was going on in 04 when Territory was introduced. But not far of the just over 30,000 units the all conquering commodore.

2014 update should include diesel ute, and XR8. It won't but it should.


my 2c.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by xr6turbo270kw

Nope ford pulled the pin on hertz as they can no longer supply them with falcons so hertz are replacing them with commodores as hertz never used commodores in the past.

Wrong.

Hertz are pulling the pin on Falcons as they are having trouble offloading them at the end of their life, and Ford wont give them a guaranteed buyback.
They have been running batches of Commodores for ages, just SV6 models. They also trialed a batch of Sportswagons and that failed after 6 months.
The have only been running XR6s and SV6s, and about 12 months ago they bumped them all to the 'Premium sedan' class (so they could cut down the fleet size)
The 'Full size sedan' class was taken over by the Camry.