VFACTS - November 2024

[Trendseeker]

VFACTS November 2024

https://www.drive.com.au/news/austra...medium=partner


New-car sales declined in November 2024 for the fourth consecutive month – topped by the RAV4 and Ford Ranger – but the market is still in positive territory for the year, with one month to go.

Sales of new motor vehicles in Australia are still a chance to break records in 2024 – despite deliveries hitting reverse for five of the past six months – as the final hangovers of long wait lists formed in the wake of the pandemic pass.

More new vehicles have been delivered so far this year than all of 2022 – at 1,137,621 year-to-date, according to data released today – and last month is the second-best November on record, with 101,707 sales, topped by the Toyota RAV4 and Ford Ranger.

With one month to go, deliveries are still up 1.7 per cent on the same period last year, when a record 1.22 million sales were reported by year's end.

It is despite November 2024 being the fourth consecutive month of sales decline – and fifth in six months – compared to the same month last year, amid a long-forecast slowdown in demand in a worsening economy.

Record demand in the wake of the pandemic – combined with the easing of stock shortages on in-demand models – sent new-car deliveries on a 14-month streak of year-on-year growth, the longest in two decades, through 2023 and early 2024.

When it ended this May, deliveries of new vehicles were up 12 per cent year-to-date compared to the same period in 2023 – based on the data published by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) and Electric Vehicle Council (EVC).

However, this margin slumped to 4.1 per cent by the end of September, 3.0 per cent at the end of October, and now sits at just 1.7 per cent, with the release of November data.

More than 1.2 million new vehicle deliveries are still expected to be reported for 2024 come December 31, but the chances the market will beat last year's annual record are slimmer – but still possible.


The sales data reported by the FCAI is based on vehicle deliveries – while the EVC uses registrations – rather than how many orders were taken for new cars in a given month.

Demand for new cars is currently at pre-COVID levels, Toyota Australia sales and marketing boss Sean Hanley recently told Drive.

"The natural demand at the moment is probably mirroring 2019. ... Having said that, I think the market is certainly strong this year, it'll go over 1.2 million no doubt. To what degree we'll have to see.

"But you've got to be careful with that, because is that the natural demand, or is that car companies – Toyota's one of them – that's actually delivering cars that might have been ordered a year ago."

If 1.2 million new vehicles are reported as delivered in 2024, it would beat forecasts of 1.1 to 1.15 million from others in the car industry – and expectations of 1.05 to 1.1 million set by Toyota at the start of the year.

Toyota is well on its way to becoming Australia's top-selling new vehicle manufacturer for the 22nd year in a row, reporting 20,562 sales in November 2024 – up 13.6 per cent – and 222,639 year-to-date.

It has now pulled ahead of the 215,240 sales it reported in calendar year 2023, and given its typical sales rate of 20,000 deliveries per month, it is on track to surpass its 2008 record of 238,983 vehicles will prove difficult.

In second place was Ford (8720 sales), led by the Ranger ute and Everest 4WD, ahead of Mazda (7588 sales) for the eighth time this year.

GWM finished in the Top 10 – just behind rival MG – while Nissan ended the month in 10th, amid reports overseas of the company's worsening financial situation.

Sales of electric cars were down 24 per cent last month – led by a 36 per cent slump in Tesla deliveries, its ninth decline this year – while hybrids were up 47 per cent amid increased demand, choice and supply.

The Toyota RAV4 was the top-selling new vehicle in November – for the fifth month in a row – reporting 5526 deliveries, up 126 per cent year-on-year but behind its record of 6712 sales posted in August.

It was followed by the Ford Ranger, which was down 21 per cent compared to November 2023, reporting 4981 sales.

The Ford Ranger continues to lead the year-to-date sales race – with 58,100 deliveries ahead of 53,599 RAV4s – and while the Toyota is closing the gap, the current margin of 4501 vehicles will prove difficult to close in one month.

Making a surprise return to the Top Five is the new Toyota Prado, which ended the month third on 3590 sales – ahead of the Toyota HiLux ute (3572), which led the sales charts from 2016 to 2022.

As with many months in recent years, there were no traditional 'passenger cars' – hatchbacks, sedans, coupes or people movers – in the Top 10 sellers, and rather a mix of utes and SUVs.

TOP 10 CARS IN November 2024
Rank Model Volume November 2024 Change year-on-year
1 Toyota RAV4 5526 up 126 per cent
2 Ford Ranger 4981 down 20.9 per cent
3 Toyota Prado 3590 up 16.2 per cent
4 Toyota HiLux 3572 down 39.5 per cent
5 MG ZS 2794 up 36.5 per cent
6 Ford Everest 2737 up 97 per cent
7 Mitsubishi Outlander 2472 up 3.8 per cent
8 Isuzu D-Max 2180 down 41 per cent
9 Kia Sportage 1766 up 13.3 per cent
10 Mazda CX-5 1727 down 23.4 per cent


TOP 10 CAR BRANDS IN November 2024
Rank Brand Volume November 2024 Change year-on-year
1 Toyota 20,562 down 2.1 per cent
2 Ford 8720 up 6.8 per cent
3 Mazda 7588 down 12.9 per cent
4 Kia 6410 up 11.1 per cent
5 Mitsubishi 6205 down 1 per cent
6 Hyundai 5606 down 16.6 per cent
7 MG 5072 down 9.5 per cent
8 GWM 3566 down 3.1 per cent
9 Isuzu Ute 3386 down 30.2 per cent
10 Nissan 3350 down 21.5 per cent

Ford Totals
Ford Escape – 4
Ford Everest – 2737
Ford F-150 – 203
Ford Fiesta – 0
Ford Focus – 0
Ford Mustang – 167
Ford Mustang Mach-E – 27
Ford Puma – 0
Ford Ranger 4x2 – 280
Ford Ranger 4x4 – 4701
Ford Tourneo – 14
Ford Transit Bus – 28
Ford Transit Custom – 409
Ford Transit Heavy – 150
Ford Total – 8720

[Syndrome]

Looks like a recession is coming with those continual sales drops MoM

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Looks like a recession is coming with those continual sales drops MoM

Uh oh, you said the R word

[nearlythere]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Looks like a recession is coming with those continual sales drops MoM

Love the thumbnail!

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Uh oh, you said the R word

I see it at work. Things are slowing and no bottom in sight

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...85f9de22582075

[BENT_8]

Didnt take long for Prado to bounce back, I'm seeing them everywhere.

[Vekgib]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Didnt take long for Prado to bounce back, I'm seeing them everywhere.

Yep. 3525 to October 31 for the year, then 3590 in November. Money for jam for Toyota.

[Vekgib]

In fact, remove RAV4, Prado and Hi-Lux numbers, and Toyota are still in first place. Too easy.

[jpd80]

Toyota back over 20,500 but surprisingly, Ford put in 8,720 so win win for both brands.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Didnt take long for Prado to bounce back, I'm seeing them everywhere.

I think I read somewhere that they expect to deliver over 30000 in the next 12 months.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I see it at work. Things are slowing and no bottom in sight

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...85f9de22582075

I don't see it at work but I see it in Melbourne CBD - bars, clubs, restaurants, cafes all dead.

Don't even need to make bookings, just walk in and hardly anyone is around

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I think I read somewhere that they expect to deliver over 30000 in the next 12 months.

That would be a conservative figure from what im told.

This wasnt even a full month I believe, didnt start registering deliveries until around the 8th.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I think I read somewhere that they expect to deliver over 30000 in the next 12 months.

Behind the scenes, Toyota is working on getting those delivery times shortened.

Ford organised additional shipping, so I don’t see why Toyota wouldn’t have already done that too.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I think I read somewhere that they expect to deliver over 30000 in the next 12 months.

Wouldnt surprise me. Not content with the 4wd influencers all worshipping at the altar of Troopy, they're now giving them Prados. I wonder how many sheeple will buy one now that Ronny Dahl has....

[EBSXR6]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Didnt take long for Prado to bounce back, I'm seeing them everywhere.

A lot of Prado advertising on commercial and pay Tv.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by EBSXR6

A lot of Prado advertising on commercial and pay Tv.

Remember no one watches TV.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I don't see it at work but I see it in Melbourne CBD - bars, clubs, restaurants, cafes all dead.

Don't even need to make bookings, just walk in and hardly anyone is around

It's a tale of 2 cities, G-town CBD lots of boarded up shops (including the yellow rug shop I thought could out-survive cockroaches), feels so quiet and a bit destitute... Maybe a covid hangover for CBDs now that no-one works any more.

...and suburbs are pretty good, Shannon Ave has had a bit of investment and traffic is crazy, and it's trying to do a Pako. Down on the coast busy as, cafes and restaurants in high demand.

As for car sales, seeing new Prado about, see lots of high end stuff too.

[whynot]

EV sales are in a deep hole, but hybrids sales are up. It will be interesting to see how the Ranger PHEV goes.

https://www.goauto.com.au/news/gener...-04/95337.html

Consumers bought 3969 EVs in November, down 54 per cent on November 2023 according to the VFACTS data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) while sales of Tesla and Polestar (which are not recorded by VFACTS), sold 2616 cars, down 49 per cent on November 2023. Cumulative sales show EVs down 48.4 per cent on 2023.

Hybrid and PHEV sales for November were up 34 per cent on the same month in 2023.

I think this might do some good for the EV market in the longer term. Now that the first wave of buyer enthusiasm has passed while at the same time there is a market glut of EV manufacturing capacity, it will force some innovation for survival sake. We keep hearing about falling battery costs, but it doesn't yet seem to be rolling through to the final price sticker.

Hummm ... interesting, interesting times.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Remember no one watches TV.

No one under 40, which isn't Prado customers

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

No one under 40, which isn't Prado customers

20 mins, that didn't take long.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Behind the scenes, Toyota is working on getting those delivery times shortened.

Ford organised additional shipping, so I don’t see why Toyota wouldn’t have already done that too.

I believe they have, but orders are coming through faster than spots can be allocated.
I guess that old chuffer has a pulse yet.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I believe they have, but orders are coming through faster than spots can be allocated.
I guess that old chuffer has a pulse yet.

Yep, no accounting for taste, cough cough smiles at you)
let’s hope Toyota fixed the Regen issue

From what’s been said most of these deliveries are for customers that have been waiting like, six months or more so many are getting an early Christmas
present. Hopefully another two ships are in before then.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Yep, no accounting for taste, cough cough smiles at you)
let’s hope Toyota fixed the Regen issue

I bought a Pajero Sport.

3600 Prado 250 series deliveries in under a month suggests its not the ongoing drama people like to make it out to be.

[GT1533]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

It's a tale of 2 cities, G-town CBD lots of boarded up shops (including the yellow rug shop I thought could out-survive cockroaches), feels so quiet and a bit destitute... Maybe a covid hangover for CBDs now that no-one works any more.

...and suburbs are pretty good, Shannon Ave has had a bit of investment and traffic is crazy, and it's trying to do a Pako. Down on the coast busy as, cafes and restaurants in high demand.

As for car sales, seeing new Prado about, see lots of high end stuff too.

Thanks Sprintey. Supports the story that different age groups are being affected differently. Boomers/retirees doing ok with the return to a more normal level of interest rate on deposits. Boomers/retirees don’t go to CBDs, but do live in suburbs and coastal areas. Boomers/retirees also buy Prados.

[Sprintey]

Got a bingo as you described on our street!

I am seeing young crew out at said dining places and pubs, though. There's important stuff to do, people to see, dates to go on etc. It seems they are earning and spending too.

[Sprintey]

What does everyone think about the new Prado being heavier (150kg, or 250kg??), with the same diesel as before...

A good mate with one reckons the 150 series is marginal for grunt, we took about 4 attempts to do one big dune north of Perth. He's holding back until it gets more power. Also I think the boot's been controversial with all the 48V mild hybrid gear under there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBfKto1yrX0

no relation to this business, you can see the raised cargo area. I think also fuel tank @ 120L and the joy of adblue 17L are mentioned as drawbacks.

All that jelly said, tbh I'd have one with the petrol/hybrid and in 5 seats, they will sell and sell.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

What does everyone think about the new Prado being heavier (150kg, or 250kg??), with the same diesel as before...

A good mate with one reckons the 150 series is marginal for grunt, we took about 4 attempts to do one big dune north of Perth. He's holding back until it gets more power. Also I think the boot's been controversial with all the 48V mild hybrid gear under there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBfKto1yrX0

no relation to this business, you can see the raised cargo area. I think also fuel tank @ 120L and the joy of adblue 17L are mentioned as drawbacks.

All that jelly said, tbh I'd have one with the petrol/hybrid and in 5 seats, they will sell and sell.

The raised cargo area is not much different to 150 series.
I did a 3rd row delete in mine which brought it down considerably, only real difference is 150 has the plastic fill panel behind the seats whereas the 250 has a storage box and id say thats purely because its a longer area.
Its probably in the 50mm higher range.
I put drawers in mine using factory mounting points.
You could option 150 with underfloor spare too which I think looks neater.

I also did a 3rd row delete in a friends 150 and put a false floor in to mount an 80l fridge and slide, looked and fitted the same as in the utube clip

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

20 mins, that didn't take long.

AC theory for today and the previous 6 weeks, VFACTS on AFF is a little more interesting

Curious to see December figures if we're still on the downward slide.

[Big_Daz]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

What does everyone think about the new Prado being heavier (150kg, or 250kg??), with the same diesel as before...

A good mate with one reckons the 150 series is marginal for grunt, we took about 4 attempts to do one big dune north of Perth. He's holding back until it gets more power. Also I think the boot's been controversial with all the 48V mild hybrid gear under there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBfKto1yrX0

no relation to this business, you can see the raised cargo area. I think also fuel tank @ 120L and the joy of adblue 17L are mentioned as drawbacks.

All that jelly said, tbh I'd have one with the petrol/hybrid and in 5 seats, they will sell and sell.

CarExpert did one of there tests with the new Prado and its slower 0-100 and 80 - 120 than the old one which makes sense. I get into my Brothers 150 series VX after driving my Everest and it feels like its broken, the new ones probably worse.

Not sure what Toyota could of done about it.. They cant really use the V6 Diesel from 300 series, no doubt worried it would steal 300 sales and how far can they push the 2.8? Surely the tune from Hilux GR Sport (165kw/550nm) would of made more sense for it??

Either way, personally I think its a joke they just recycled the old motor and make no secret of that... but hey, they seem to be selling like hot cakes so it shows the sheep don't really care as long as it has that badge and people can do what they want with there own $$$$.

[kevino]

Originally Posted by GT1533

Thanks Sprintey. Supports the story that different age groups are being affected differently. Boomers/retirees doing ok with the return to a more normal level of interest rate on deposits. Boomers/retirees don’t go to CBDs, but do live in suburbs and coastal areas. Boomers/retirees also buy Prados.

Correction
SOME boomers-retirees buy Prado s.

A case of you can fool some of the people some of the time
But
Not all of the people all of the time.

This boomer wouldnt be seen dead in a Prado.