Delayed: Ford's 4-cylinder Falcon

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Chilliman

Are you alluding to a brief period where we are subjected to a heavy D3-based car before a switch to a lighter CD4 car?

I think such a move would do more damage to Ford Austalia's large car brand than if they just stretched out current E8 prodution until the CD4 LWB car was ready.

Your second suggestion is the most plausible, no more upgrades and restricted models to save costs.

FG only just beat out Fusion in 2004 bench marking decision, I think the buyer demographics
have changed a bit these days in favor of the Fusion/Mondeo...

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

As you have said, Ford Motor Company know how to play the game with governments and no government in power is going to be willing to let a major automotive manufacturer close the doors on its watch. Car makers like Ford are termed by the Federal Government as part of a 'strategic industry' (see: Federal Government Automotive Industry Sustainability Report) and henceforth I would suggest there are also some legislative barriers to Dearborn simply coming in here, clicking the fingers and shuttering the plant: a lot of taxpayer money has been thrown at Ford Australia and if Detroit really truly wanted the place gone, the financial fallout would be somewhat extreme (paying back the taxpayer's money and taking care of all those staff that would be laid off just for starters). I'n not saying they would be statute-barred from physically closing the plant, but I am willing to bet that those taxpayer dollars which were given to Ford to keep the lights on and keep developing cars here would have been subject to watertight agreements in which the government would have undoubtedly had clauses that protected its interests.

I would also suggest there could be some political fallout when Canberra starts complaining to the United States Government that an American corporation has just sabotaged one of Australia's strategic industries. But I'm just guessing on that one.

Very good post mate, lets all hope these are factors that Ford Consider VERY seriously.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

FG only just beat out Fusion in 2004 bench marking decision

That's retarded, may as well have compared it with a Camry. Obviously they weren't benchmarking driving dynamics, NVH, looks or powertrains!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

That's retarded, may as well have compared it with a Camry. Obviously they weren't benchmarking driving dynamics, NVH, looks or powertrains!!

They were indeed and the RWD Falcon only just came out in front...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Whilst I can see Dearborn having an excuse to terminate the locally designed products (whether that excuse is justified or not), I think it is less likely (and much harder) for them to shutter the assembly plant and the rest of the associated facilities. In the entire Ford world, I would say Australia is one of only 3 or 4 locations that gives Ford the ability to design, engineer, and manufacture a car from nothing. The others of course being the US, Germany, Umm...help me out here? Many other Ford plants make cars but do not have the build in R&D function that FoA has. Especially when you consider global platforms like the T6.

I think I have alluded to it before, either in this thread or another (i'm losing track of all these doom and gloom threads), but the depth of product design and development that Ford Australia has cannot realistically be conducted without an inherent ability to manufacture cars. Dearborn quite clearly know this given the amount of product development and design work they have been rampantly throwing at Ford Australia. How many foreign market projects are they working on now?

As you have said, Ford Motor Company know how to play the game with governments and no government in power is going to be willing to let a major automotive manufacturer close the doors on its watch. Car makers like Ford are termed by the Federal Government as part of a 'strategic industry' (see: Federal Government Automotive Industry Sustainability Report) and henceforth I would suggest there are also some legislative barriers to Dearborn simply coming in here, clicking the fingers and shuttering the plant: a lot of taxpayer money has been thrown at Ford Australia and if Detroit really truly wanted the place gone, the financial fallout would be somewhat extreme (paying back the taxpayer's money and taking care of all those staff that would be laid off just for starters). I'n not saying they would be statute-barred from physically closing the plant, but I am willing to bet that those taxpayer dollars which were given to Ford to keep the lights on and keep developing cars here would have been subject to watertight agreements in which the government would have undoubtedly had clauses that protected its interests.

I would also suggest there could be some political fallout when Canberra starts complaining to the United States Government that an American corporation has just sabotaged one of Australia's strategic industries. But I'm just guessing on that one.

What money has been thrown at Ford to remain competitive?
$13M for I-6 upgrades and $40M for Ecoboost I-4, V6 diesel and EcoLPI engines...

Not much holding Ford here, especially now that the government has
eliminated tariffs and made it easier to build cars off shore in Thailand....

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Whilst I can see Dearborn having an excuse to terminate the locally designed products (whether that excuse is justified or not), I think it is less likely (and much harder) for them to shutter the assembly plant and the rest of the associated facilities. In the entire Ford world, I would say Australia is one of only 3 or 4 locations that gives Ford the ability to design, engineer, and manufacture a car from nothing. The others of course being the US, Germany, Umm...help me out here? Many other Ford plants make cars but do not have the build in R&D function that FoA has. Especially when you consider global platforms like the T6.

I think I have alluded to it before, either in this thread or another (i'm losing track of all these doom and gloom threads), but the depth of product design and development that Ford Australia has cannot realistically be conducted without an inherent ability to manufacture cars. Dearborn quite clearly know this given the amount of product development and design work they have been rampantly throwing at Ford Australia. How many foreign market projects are they working on now?

As you have said, Ford Motor Company know how to play the game with governments and no government in power is going to be willing to let a major automotive manufacturer close the doors on its watch. Car makers like Ford are termed by the Federal Government as part of a 'strategic industry' (see: Federal Government Automotive Industry Sustainability Report) and henceforth I would suggest there are also some legislative barriers to Dearborn simply coming in here, clicking the fingers and shuttering the plant: a lot of taxpayer money has been thrown at Ford Australia and if Detroit really truly wanted the place gone, the financial fallout would be somewhat extreme (paying back the taxpayer's money and taking care of all those staff that would be laid off just for starters). I'n not saying they would be statute-barred from physically closing the plant, but I am willing to bet that those taxpayer dollars which were given to Ford to keep the lights on and keep developing cars here would have been subject to watertight agreements in which the government would have undoubtedly had clauses that protected its interests.

I would also suggest there could be some political fallout when Canberra starts complaining to the United States Government that an American corporation has just sabotaged one of Australia's strategic industries. But I'm just guessing on that one.

Exactly. Ford will be here in manufacturing, and design. They said how important Australia is to global operations... and that hasn't just been words.

Also. The Government has always made no secret of the fact they want an Automotive industry here. Not sure why myself. But over the ages, our government has always specifically wanted local vehicle manufacture. Ford knows this. And they've gone to the Govt. money bucket in hand. Sometimes they get rejected. But Ford and the Federal and State Governments have always worked out a comprise that keeps jobs here. Not just for building the vehicles. But local suppliers and manufacturers of parts. Hence I6 still with us.

Ford has roots that go deep here. I think they're with us through the good and bad times. Unfortunately now is one of those bad times.

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

And you are who ?

Just a fellow ford fan, who wishes to know why you give me such a hard time. If you can't be bothered to enlighten me... then just don't respond to my posts. Why do I have to tell you this?

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Whilst I can see Dearborn having an excuse to terminate the locally designed products (whether that excuse is justified or not), I think it is less likely (and much harder) for them to shutter the assembly plant and the rest of the associated facilities. In the entire Ford world, I would say Australia is one of only 3 or 4 locations that gives Ford the ability to design, engineer, and manufacture a car from nothing. The others of course being the US, Germany, Umm...help me out here? Many other Ford plants make cars but do not have the build in R&D function that FoA has. Especially when you consider global platforms like the T6.

Ford Australia is a relic though, its now Asia-Pacific or even Asia-Pacific/Africa. Developing cars in Geelong and building them in Thailand etc isnt too different to designing them in Germany/UK and building them across Eastern Europe.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

Ford Australia is a relic though, its now Asia-Pacific or even Asia-Pacific/Africa. Developing cars in Geelong and building them in Thailand etc isnt too different to designing them in Germany/UK and building them across Eastern Europe.

Exactly, T6 Ranger, Figo, next vehicle for Chinese market.

Not saying the next product cycle is doomed but it's going to take a lot of dollars and
political will to make it happen, Ford is somewhere between Holden and Mitsubishi
at the moment and they need a benefactor to champion their cause, unfortunately,
(without becoming too political) we probably need a conservative government to make that happen...

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

Ford Australia is a relic though, its now Asia-Pacific or even Asia-Pacific/Africa. Developing cars in Geelong and building them in Thailand etc isnt too different to designing them in Germany/UK and building them across Eastern Europe.

The engineering side of Ford Australia operations is I suspect the only real reason, beyond government payouts that Ford Australia manufacturing is still around.

Ford will loose an awful lot of talent and capacity to do things engineering wise cheaply, if Ford goes import only. No question they need to make something here if they want to keep the engineering talent and the incubator that is Ford Australia, that produces it. That is not to say Ford globally isn't stupid enough to do this anyway. There would be a lot of engineers in the US who I am sure would be glad to see Ford Australia get shuttered. The Falcon and Territory product have been embarrassing to them, given what was done, with so little time and resources here in Australia.

The RWD skillsets and experience, the ideal testing locations in Australia and the ability to do engineering cheaply and effectively is a uniquely Australian part of the Ford empire. No one else makes something for anything like the small budgets that Ford Australia make do with. One of the few advantages of being the unloved step child of Detroit for Ford Australia and Holden was they learnt to do an awful lot with very little money.

More recently Ford Australia have demonstrated the ability to engineer and oversee projects to make cheap, but effective vehicles for growing markets in the Asia Pacific region where a Focus is just never going to cut it, as its too expensive.

If Australian manufacturing can at least pay for itself, then that might be enough reason to leave something here. I think where the problem is, is that was probably part of the justification in giving us the greenlight for FG and that has continued to decline in sales since launch.

My best guess will be either Ford US decide that the game is up and forfeit the lot, manufacturing first and then engineering as numbers decline, or Ford Australia will make something, but not necessarily a mainstream product for Australia. More likely a niche product for a world market or worst case just to keep the lights on, an overseas product with some Australian input like the Camry is built here.

Whichever way the emphasis for Ford US still having manufacturing here wont be Australian production, its Australian engineering and keeping that talent.

Dan

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

What money has been thrown at Ford to remain competitive?
$13M for I-6 upgrades and $40M for Ecoboost I-4, V6 diesel and EcoLPI engines...

Don't forget the money that was given to Ford to 'help' make the FG a reality, the government grants that were given to Ford for the new climatic testing facility and semi-anechoic chamber at the proving ground in addition to non-financial benefits...

And then of course there's there's things like worker redundancies to consider...

[Flat Top]

production job 1 dec2011

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Don't forget the money that was given to Ford to 'help' make the FG a reality, the government grants that were given to Ford for the new climatic testing facility and semi-anechoic chamber at the proving ground in addition to non-financial benefits...

And then of course there's there's things like worker redundancies to consider...

I won't deny money was given to Ford but that was in the past and we have to separate
research and development infrastructure for production and assembly investment.

While Ford Australia provides huge support to the rest of Ford internally with engineering services,
the need and viability of local manufacturing is becoming questionable without further
government assistance, that's why I'm thinking a decision will surely be announced in
an election year, designed to put the government on the spot and offer up cash to
keep Ford manufacturing in Australia. Ford knows they have a big card to play and
I'm betting they do just that, " Give us funding or local Falcon production ends in 2015".

Can't say it any plainer than that.

[spyvidman]

was out driving past you yangs today pop my head in an had a look to see wat was going on out there. they were testing wat sounds like a 4 cylinder falcon not the normal sounding 6 taking off there was also a ute going around the speed track as well. doind acceration tests an around the other side were 2 rangers doing load testing with trailers but one was actually mazda bt50 front end. does anyone else go out there an have a look see.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I won't deny money was given to Ford but that was in the past and we have to separate research and development infrastructure for production and assembly investment.

While Ford Australia provides huge support to the rest of Ford internally with engineering services, the need and viability of local manufacturing is becoming questionable without further government assistance, that's why I'm thinking a decision will surely be announced in an election year, designed to put the government on the spot and offer up cash to keep Ford manufacturing in Australia. Ford knows they have a big card to play and I'm betting they do just that, " Give us funding or local Falcon production ends in 2015".

Can't say it any plainer than that.

Trouble with that theory is that we've just had a federal election (and a state election in Victoria) so it will be 2015 almost before they can play that card and the decision on the Falcon and the future of the plant is due in the next 6-8 months. The time scale does not marry up.

Originally Posted by spyvidman

was out driving past you yangs today pop my head in an had a look to see wat was going on out there. they were testing wat sounds like a 4 cylinder falcon not the normal sounding 6 taking off there was also a ute going around the speed track as well. doind acceration tests an around the other side were 2 rangers doing load testing with trailers but one was actually mazda bt50 front end. does anyone else go out there an have a look see.

So there was an Ecoboost mule - what was the ute, a Falcon or something else?

[spyvidman]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Trouble with that theory is that we've just had a federal election (and a state election in Victoria) so it will be 2015 almost before they can play that card and the decision on the Falcon and the future of the plant is due in the next 6-8 months. The time scale does not marry up.



So there was an Ecoboost mule - what was the ute, a Falcon or something else?

yeh im shaw it was an eco boost ive been out there quite a fiew times def differant sound to that. There were 2 mules a falcon sedan an the falcon ute.no security out today either

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by spyvidman

yeh im shaw it was an eco boost ive been out there quite a fiew times def differant sound to that. There were 2 mules a falcon sedan an the falcon ute.no security out today either

Did they have car-bras on??

[spyvidman]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Did they have car-bras on??

the ute did but sedan did not. so wat does that mean then if only one did. do you go out there often

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by spyvidman

the ute did but sedan did not. so wat does that mean then if only one did. do you go out there often

No mate I don't, but if test mules at the proving ground have bras on them (front or rear) its a general indication that there is something underneath it worth hiding (like some new styling)

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Trouble with that theory is that we've just had a federal election (and a state election in Victoria) so it will be 2015 almost before they can play that card and the decision on the Falcon and the future of the plant is due in the next 6-8 months. The time scale does not marry up.

Federal elections are held every three years, so the next one is no later than September 2013.
This could still work for Ford because the decisions have to be made long before production starts,

A likely time line could be:
1) Sept 2011 FoA decides next platform.
2) June 2012 FoA announces intended path going forward.
3) Nov 2012 FoA advises factory lock in for next vehicle is Sept 2013
4) Feb 2013 FoA approaches government with funding plan to keep production in Australia
5) June 2013 FoA advises whether Broadmeadows/Geelong has secured next platform or not...
6) Nov 2013 Factory lock in to allow reconfiguring,equipment set up and supply contracts.
7) Mid - late 2015 Plant starts production of new vehicles.

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

The engineering side of Ford Australia operations is I suspect the only real reason, beyond government payouts that Ford Australia manufacturing is still around.

Ford will loose an awful lot of talent and capacity to do things engineering wise cheaply, if Ford goes import only. No question they need to make something here if they want to keep the engineering talent and the incubator that is Ford Australia, that produces it. That is not to say Ford globally isn't stupid enough to do this anyway. There would be a lot of engineers in the US who I am sure would be glad to see Ford Australia get shuttered. The Falcon and Territory product have been embarrassing to them, given what was done, with so little time and resources here in Australia.

The RWD skillsets and experience, the ideal testing locations in Australia and the ability to do engineering cheaply and effectively is a uniquely Australian part of the Ford empire. No one else makes something for anything like the small budgets that Ford Australia make do with. One of the few advantages of being the unloved step child of Detroit for Ford Australia and Holden was they learnt to do an awful lot with very little money.

More recently Ford Australia have demonstrated the ability to engineer and oversee projects to make cheap, but effective vehicles for growing markets in the Asia Pacific region where a Focus is just never going to cut it, as its too expensive.

If Australian manufacturing can at least pay for itself, then that might be enough reason to leave something here. I think where the problem is, is that was probably part of the justification in giving us the greenlight for FG and that has continued to decline in sales since launch.

My best guess will be either Ford US decide that the game is up and forfeit the lot, manufacturing first and then engineering as numbers decline, or Ford Australia will make something, but not necessarily a mainstream product for Australia. More likely a niche product for a world market or worst case just to keep the lights on, an overseas product with some Australian input like the Camry is built here.

Whichever way the emphasis for Ford US still having manufacturing here wont be Australian production, its Australian engineering and keeping that talent.

Dan

FoA's engineering demand has never been constant though, ive had it described as being like a sine wave. Projects like T6 and the Chinese/Indian cars have filled in some of the troughs the few years, and so too would Territory if it was given a better shot. Because of that the majority of engineering staff are put on contract so theyre only there when needed. Ford running just R+D out of Australia only has to be worse than that if Ford get lazy, and theres every possibility they could increase their R+D workload. T6 is surely going to have extra work over its life cycle. New Mustang and Fusion/Mondeo would draw serious interest for both that RWD tech and large car experience. Maybe FoA will have a say in the next Explorer and similar SUV's too?

[1TUFFUTE]

Originally Posted by spyvidman

the ute did but sedan did not. so wat does that mean then if only one did. do you go out there often

hey sounds like your a keen visitor out there sometimes. This is deff the place that would fully appreciate ANY pics vids news or hints on the new falcon and ute products out there. I know id be glued to the screen

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Flat Top

production job 1 dec2011

Thanks!

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

FoA's engineering demand has never been constant though, ive had it described as being like a sine wave. Projects like T6 and the Chinese/Indian cars have filled in some of the troughs the few years, and so too would Territory if it was given a better shot. Because of that the majority of engineering staff are put on contract so theyre only there when needed. Ford running just R+D out of Australia only has to be worse than that if Ford get lazy, and theres every possibility they could increase their R+D workload. T6 is surely going to have extra work over its life cycle. New Mustang and Fusion/Mondeo would draw serious interest for both that RWD tech and large car experience. Maybe FoA will have a say in the next Explorer and similar SUV's too?

I think the manufacturing goes hand in hand with the talent and know how. They helped India setup the manufacturing too. So FoA needs to keep it's hand in the manufacturing loop.

Falcon could be broader overseas. It has the AWD tech for a next Taurus... and RWD for Mustang.

[XC_Lizzard]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

. . . Also. The Government has always made no secret of the fact they want an Automotive industry here. Not sure why myself. . . .

One of the reasons why the Government takes steps to maintain large manufacturing has its roots back in WW2, when local automotive manufacturing (and some very interesting local innovations) permitted local production of a range of things required to support the war effort. For example, Ford Australia was making just about everthing from Truck wheels to Landing Craft and (I think) aircraft components. This kind of flexibilty in times of adversity was/is seen as a handy thing to have available.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by XC_Lizzard

One of the reasons why the Government takes steps to maintain large manufacturing has its roots back in WW2, when local automotive manufacturing (and some very interesting local innovations) permitted local production of a range of things required to support the war effort. For example, Ford Australia was making just about everthing from Truck wheels to Landing Craft and (I think) aircraft components. This kind of flexibilty in times of adversity was/is seen as a handy thing to have available.

Well there you go.

We have to keep Falcon. The safety of the nation is at stake.

As a revhead. I must admit living in a country with automotive manufacturing is a great thing.

[outback_ute]

Certainly something the US govt was concerned about re the bail-outs over there. If the auto industry suppliers lost their income & also fell over, a lot of them also do work for the defense industry which would suddenly have a huge problem.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by XC_Lizzard

One of the reasons why the Government takes steps to maintain large manufacturing has its roots back in WW2, when local automotive manufacturing (and some very interesting local innovations) permitted local production of a range of things required to support the war effort. For example, Ford Australia was making just about everthing from Truck wheels to Landing Craft and (I think) aircraft components. This kind of flexibilty in times of adversity was/is seen as a handy thing to have available.

Won't work anymore, just in time manufacturing processes and outsourcing and high levels of automation mean that you can't just flick a switch at Broadmeadows and start churning out Abrams tanks. The reason the Australian Government considers the automotive manufacturing industry to be a strategic industry is because of the R&D that is invested and the flow-on effects this has on other manufacturing sectors.

[jpd80]

You only have to ask where does the military buy their equipment from, it's not locally...

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You only have to ask where does the military buy their equipment from, it's not locally...

Well they do buy some stuff that is built here.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You only have to ask where does the military buy their equipment from, it's not locally...

We make a lot of our own stuff. ANZAC Frigates, the Collins Class Submarine, the Bushmaster IFV, Steyr Battle Rifle, ASLAV, F/A-18 Hornet, etcetera.

The point of difference between the 'total war' economy of WWII where every big industry was converted to making guns and tanks, is that there was no one else to make that kind of crap. 50-60 years later our shipbuilders, aviation industries, truck/train manufacturers, foundries and all the rest of those 2nd and 3rd tier manufacturing industries have matured to the extent where they would assume the likely burden of such a similar event. These industries are also distributed all over the country (along with their supplier bases) so there is absolute redundancy if push comes to shove.