Covid 19 -

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That seems intrinsically “wrong” in the sense of buying honesty, but I’d pay for a JP at a pinch, yes.

Don't think that JP's are allowed to charge, try post office, bank, police station or MP's office.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Something to play with, can't comment on the accuracy.
https://www.politico.com/interactive...avirus-impact/

Mouseover to identify flags; note where Sweden is.

This source is pretty much on the left of politics.
Which means that it will report in such a way as to make the US look bad.

I seriously doubt its positioning takes into account infection rate, hospitalisations, and deaths - per capita





It is getting insane trying to understand real numbers here (US).
Deaths are overstated, better testing means an increase in reported infection rate (as it picks asymptomatic and minor).
Reported hospitalisations, or Intubations are the only reliable measure - and these figures are not easily available by state - I say by state, because with 300,000 population, and different cultural, social, economic structures the figures need to be separated out to see change (To see my point look at the world figures, and tray to apply that to any one country).


But honestly, I would not trust any US media outlets on their own. To be honest FOX is one of the few national channels that have news programming that will acknowledge there are two sides to a story. (They even have a real lefty commentator among their miriad of right wing opinion hosts)


My best solution so far is to contrast Covid and Politics from ABC(US) and FOX
And catch any other stories from BBC.


I do not trust Politico (on its own).

[russellw]

I forgot to mention it but Belgium has become the first (and probably only) country to surpass the 100 mortalities per 100k of population mark. The next closest is Italy (88) and Spain (74).

Oddly enough, they don't (thankfully) have the highest infection rate per 100k with 616 - behind the USA (806), Spain (732) and Italy (622).

Italy and Spain (it should be noted) are both approaching 10,000 tests per 100,000 adult population which is well ahead of some other countries in Europe - notably France (2,685), the Netherlands (2,326) and Brazil (443). Australia and NZ are both around the 7,000 mark.

I'm sure there is something to be learnt from the data for tests per confirmed case. Australia and NZ are miles in front of any other country at ~170 tests per confirmed case while Ecuador, Brazil and Mexico are at the other end of the scale with <5.

As each of those three countries is also well behind in the tests per 100k, there are really only two possible conclusions: (1) they are really good at picking which cases to test and thus the success rate is high and therefore they don't need to test a greater percentage of the population; or (2) if their case identification rate was similar to the global average of 11.88 tests per confirmed case and they tested similar numbers of people then their case numbers would be much higher than they currently are. For example, Brazil has only tested 0.44% of the adult population so to get to even the 2.5% mark would require a bit over 4M extra tests and at 12 tests per case that's still an extra 360k cases or more than double the current number.

The plus side of that increase (of course) is the CMR would halve although the case numbers per 100k would also double.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

This source is pretty much on the left of politics.
Which means that it will report in such a way as to make the US look bad.

I seriously doubt its positioning takes into account infection rate, hospitalisations, and deaths - per capita





It is getting insane trying to understand real numbers here (US).
Deaths are overstated, better testing means an increase in reported infection rate (as it picks asymptomatic and minor).
Reported hospitalisations, or Intubations are the only reliable measure - and these figures are not easily available by state - I say by state, because with 300,000 population, and different cultural, social, economic structures the figures need to be separated out to see change (To see my point look at the world figures, and tray to apply that to any one country).


But honestly, I would not trust any US media outlets on their own. To be honest FOX is one of the few national channels that have news programming that will acknowledge there are two sides to a story. (They even have a real lefty commentator among their miriad of right wing opinion hosts)


My best solution so far is to contrast Covid and Politics from ABC(US) and FOX
And catch any other stories from BBC.


I do not trust Politico (on its own).

We all understand it is impossible to give real time fatality rates for Covid 19 when large numbers of people are affected.

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Reported hospitalisations, or Intubations are the only reliable measure

That is pretty much what China did when the outbreak happened in Wuhan. But because the hospital administration system was overstretched they under reported the number of deaths.

China claimed when the outbreak was under control they went back over their records and realised they had not counted all deaths.

The number of deaths in Wuhan was found to be nearly double the original number claimed.

Weather we believe that or not, China was heavy criticised for hiding the truth about the disease and lying to the world.

Other countries are not going to make the same mistake, that is why death rates may be overstated.

Unfortunately the US has some of the worst numbers in the world at the moment. This is a fact not part of any conspiracy by left wing media.

IMHO

[Cav]

[russellw]

4 new cases for Australia and no deaths. CMR drops to 1.433% and active cases drop to 6.8%.

No new cases or deaths for NZ so CMR is the same and active cases remains at 1.8% (27).

The UK had just over 1.6k new cases and 121 deaths so the CMR drops to 14.133%.

Just over 18k new cases in the USA and 617 deaths sees CMR down to 5.894% and active cases up to 67.8%.

Other notable points:
The global total of cases passes 5.5M;
The USA has completed over 15M tests;

Syria (20),Malaysia (172), Armenia (452), Afghanistan (591), Bangladesh (1,975) and Chile (4,895) all recorded their highest daily total to date - those in blue on consecutive days and in red on the 3rd (or more) consecutive day.

[MITCHAY]

ACT moving to stage 2.1 of their plan this weekend. As far as I have read it diverges from NSW in relaxing a broader range of businesses here but will limit to max 20 with exceptions for funerals.

Not really sure why we're not upping the pub and bar limit to match the 50 limit of NSW considering we have had no active cases for a while now.

https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/__dat...ions_0.4.1.pdf

[russellw]

[QUOTE=MITCHAY;6445833]ACT moving to stage 2.1 of their plan this weekend. As far as I have read it diverges from NSW in relaxing a broader range of businesses here but will limit to max 20 with exceptions for funerals.

Not really sure why we're not upping the pub and bar limit to match the 50 limit of NSW considering we have had no active cases for a while now./QUOTE]

Here is the updated restrictions by State. NSW may yet make further changes in the next couple of days as might Victoria.

[PhilT2]

The number of excess deaths happening tends to support the idea that Covid-19 toll is being underestimated.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/d...overestimated/

[CoupeKing]

[Cav]

A 30-year-old man from Blackwater, near Emerald, in Central Queensland has died from COVID-19, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced.

Ms Palaszczuk said the miner tested positive to the virus post mortem. The man's partner is also showing symptoms.

"She has been transferred to the Rockhampton Hospital, where she's being isolated and further tests are being done," Ms Palaszczuk said.

"Blackwater has never had a case of COVID before. Contact tracing is extensively underway."

Health Minister Steven Miles said paramedics found the man dead in his home late yesterday afternoon.

He said the man had been unwell for some time and did not get tested.


Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said it was believed the man had an underlying medical condition.

He is the country's youngest virus fatality.

"He has a complicated medical history and that also needs to be worked through," she said.

"Age is not a total predictor of people who are going to do badly.

"The other thing is we don't know the impact of the other medical issues he had.That will be something for the coroner to look at.

"Whether or not COVID-19 was the precipitating cause for his death, that's how we report it."

A team of public health experts and additional contact tracing resources have been deployed from Brisbane to Blackwater to track the possible source of the virus, with testing available at Blackwater Hospital from today.

A fever clinic also will be established at the Blackwater Rodeo Grounds from 8am tomorrow.

"I have four planes on the ground, two in Townsville and two in Brisbane, that we can use to go and get anyone who's a confirmed case and move them to Rockhampton or to Brisbane," Dr Young added.

The victim had not worked since November and has not left the central Queensland town since February, raising the question of how he became infected.

His partner works at a local store and is in isolation. She has returned a negative test.

Central Highlands Mayor Kerry Hayes said workers that commute from other Central Queensland communities or from outside the region could have brought the virus into Blackwater.

It is the state's seventh coronavirus-related death and brings the state's total number of cases to 1058.

Nationwide, 103 people have died of COVID-19.
- Reported with AAP

I think I might panic and stop Miss Penny from going outdoors.

[russellw]

15 new cases for Australia with Queensland and SA reporting their first cases in awhile. No deaths although one will be in the report tomorrow so CMR drops to 1.430% and active cases drop to 6.7%.

No new cases or deaths for NZ so CMR is the same and active cases drop to1.5% (22).

The UK had just over 4k new cases and 134 deaths so the CMR drops to 13.968%.

Just over 21k new cases in the USA and 505 deaths sees CMR down to 5.849% and active cases down to 67.1%. The USA also passed 100k deaths.

Other notable points:
The global total of deaths passes 350k;
Asia passes 1M cases;
Russia passes 9M tests;
Canada passes 1.5M tests;

Nepal (90), Uzbekistan (101), Sri Lanka (137), Philippines (350), Bolivia (397), Kazahkstan (438), Egypt (789) and Peru (5,772) all recorded their highest daily total to date - those in blue on consecutive days and in red on the 3rd (or more) consecutive day.

[russellw]

We've been graph free for a few days so here are the updated snapshots for Asia and Africa.

Asia is divided into two graphs - basically an above 500 cases / day group and a below that level group.

The first is starting to show a mostly downward trend after a period where the trends were upward with only Afghanistan bucking that trend.



The second group isn't as positive with three trending downward (Bahrain, Oman and Tajikistan) and three trending upward: Iraq, Armenia and Kazakhstan, with the latter two climbing steeply.



The African countries are broken up into three graphs based on the number of cases per day.

The first group (>400) only contains South Africa and Egypt with the former heading down and the latter heading up



The second chart (100-399) shows Nigeria in an upward trend along with Morocco which had been heading downward quite steadily. All the rest are in a downward curve.



The final group (<100) is nearly all downward trending with only Ethiopia heading sharply in the opposite direction.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by russellw

and SA reporting their first cases in awhile.

This case was a woman who came from overseas to Victoria and then got exemption on compassionate grounds to fly to Adelaide. We picked up the infection when she was tested at our airport. While she apparently quarantined in Vic rumour has it it wasn't for 14 days and questions are being asked why she wasn't tested earlier. We get to record her as a local case though.

They are now tracing everyone who was on the flight etc. This is why the virus spreads. Some people don't care and while testing is widespread there are still gaps in the system.

Edit- apologies, I got that slightly wrong. She tested negative three days after arriving in Melbourne.

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by prydey

This case was a woman who came from overseas to Victoria and then got exemption on compassionate grounds to fly to Adelaide. We picked up the infection when she was tested at our airport. While she apparently quarantined in Vic rumour has it it wasn't for 14 days and questions are being asked why she wasn't tested earlier. We get to record her as a local case though.

They are now tracing everyone who was on the flight etc. This is why the virus spreads. Some people don't care and while testing is widespread there are still gaps in the system.

Edit- apologies, I got that slightly wrong. She tested negative three days after arriving in Melbourne.

The news report I heard today said she was tested in Victoria which came back negative.

[Citroënbender]

My mate who is in remission, thought it prudent to be tested as he would rather be on the front foot with any new illness. Especially one which already killed his father. As his body levels up post-chemo, he’s been experiencing fluctuations in temperature which might lead to confusion with a fever, or vice-versa.

Despite all the public “broadcasting” telling people to get tested, he had to quite assertively make a case to be swabbed. This was at the RPAH testing clinic, for reference.

[4stanger]

Originally Posted by Cav

A 30-year-old man from Blackwater, near Emerald, in Central Queensland has died from COVID-19, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced.

Ms Palaszczuk said the miner tested positive to the virus post mortem. The man's partner is also showing symptoms.

"She has been transferred to the Rockhampton Hospital, where she's being isolated and further tests are being done," Ms Palaszczuk said.

"Blackwater has never had a case of COVID before. Contact tracing is extensively underway."

Health Minister Steven Miles said paramedics found the man dead in his home late yesterday afternoon.

He said the man had been unwell for some time and did not get tested.


Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said it was believed the man had an underlying medical condition.

He is the country's youngest virus fatality.

"He has a complicated medical history and that also needs to be worked through," she said.

"Age is not a total predictor of people who are going to do badly.

"The other thing is we don't know the impact of the other medical issues he had.That will be something for the coroner to look at.

"Whether or not COVID-19 was the precipitating cause for his death, that's how we report it."

A team of public health experts and additional contact tracing resources have been deployed from Brisbane to Blackwater to track the possible source of the virus, with testing available at Blackwater Hospital from today.

A fever clinic also will be established at the Blackwater Rodeo Grounds from 8am tomorrow.

"I have four planes on the ground, two in Townsville and two in Brisbane, that we can use to go and get anyone who's a confirmed case and move them to Rockhampton or to Brisbane," Dr Young added.

The victim had not worked since November and has not left the central Queensland town since February, raising the question of how he became infected.

His partner works at a local store and is in isolation. She has returned a negative test.

Central Highlands Mayor Kerry Hayes said workers that commute from other Central Queensland communities or from outside the region could have brought the virus into Blackwater.

It is the state's seventh coronavirus-related death and brings the state's total number of cases to 1058.

Nationwide, 103 people have died of COVID-19.
- Reported with AAP

I think I might panic and stop Miss Penny from going outdoors.

That's way out in the outback Cav,
no where near us, closer to the coast!

[Polyal]

There is a lot more to that story in Blackwater, bloke had not been at work since atleast November and had prior health issues...but QLD gov will love the story to back their border closure.

It smells dodgey, but it is Blackwater.

[zilo]

In the haste to get the covid spreader kids back to school two closures on the same day that kids went back.

Trust me it's safe...real important to get them kids back in child care (aka school) to pay for the next holiday or big plasma tv.

can't afford kids cause you both have to work for that mortgage? wear a friggin' condom or pull out...

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The number of excess deaths happening tends to support the idea that Covid-19 toll is being underestimated.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/d...overestimated/

In the CDC data I see 4268 deaths in excess of the last three years' average (For NY state deaths that are not identified with Flu or Pneumonia symptoms in the first 20 weeks of this year).


The excess deaths is interesting (and tragic), but they should not all be attributed to cororavirus infection.


For example - Reportedly there has been an in increase in suicide and overdose death (I guess, as a result of fear of disease, lockdown induced cabin fever, or job loss) - these should not be considered coronavirus infection deaths.

[LG17]

Donald and his merry men seem to be doing a fantastic job of controlling the disease...



"The death toll from coronavirus in the US has now surpassed 100,000, making it the first country to reach the grim milestone.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the US leads the world in both death toll and total case numbers.

Nearly 1.7 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19."


! Get the facts about Covid 19

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by LG17

Donald and his merry men seem to be doing a fantastic job of controlling the disease...



"The death toll from coronavirus in the US has now surpassed 100,000, making it the first country to reach the grim milestone.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the US leads the world in both death toll and total case numbers.

Nearly 1.7 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19."


! Get the facts about Covid 19

Not a good stat but should be reviewed along with % of population than an outright toll number.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by zilo

In the haste to get the covid spreader kids back to school two closures on the same day that kids went back.

Trust me it's safe...real important to get them kids back in child care (aka school) to pay for the next holiday or big plasma tv.

can't afford kids cause you both have to work for that mortgage? wear a friggin' condom or pull out...

Please provide evidence that children are covid spreaders. Schools have been back running for 5 weeks here in s.a. and no evidence of any 'super spreading' going on. While children are not immune, even globally they seem to be less contagious than adults. There is no medical reason why schools shouldn't be open. Vulnerable teachers should stay home, not the children.

[LG17]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Not a good stat but should be reviewed along with % of population than an outright toll number.

The %age is way up there!

[superyob]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Not a good stat but should be reviewed along with % of population than an outright toll number.

The cleanliness of some of those American cities was quite poor before the pandemic according to various sources. Public defecation and squalor from hordes of homeless people was apparently the norm in many of those cities with high covid death rates...

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by superyob

The cleanliness of some of those American cities was quite poor before the pandemic according to various sources. Public defecation and squalor from hordes of homeless people was apparently the norm in many of those cities with high covid death rates...

Blue states.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by LG17

The %age is way up there!

Define way up there.

The media love those raw numbers to sensationalize the situation.

The USA CMR is a bit more than a third the UK. Belgium is beating the USA in pretty much every number, in a bad way. If you take the EU as a whole it's total population is similar to the USA, with some countries doing very well, like some states, and others are a trainwreck, like some states.

So overall the USA is slightly worse than the EU, but America bashers and Trump haters take every opportunity to whine about the American numbers, no one is leveling similar criticism at Europe.

We are now seeing emerge the 20/20 hindsight brigade, telling us how everyone got it wrong and they are all idiots. It's only taken a couple of months for them to forget no one knew how this was going to pan out and everyone did the best they could with the information to hand at the time.

AND...of course... it ain't over.

USA has done as best it could. They have significant % of people who are non compliant. They have tremendous economic strata. They have a multi tier government system with more power invested in states than we do. They have massive overseas exposure on both coasts.

It's REALLY easy to point out the problems in the world. Hippies have made a lifelong obsession about it. It's also really easy to sit around with your friends telling each other how clever you are and how easy it would be to fix the world. Try actually doing something and you find it ain't that easy and your "common sense" solutions have often been tried and shown to fail.

I hate the people in power across the world as much as anyone, but I also hate the idiots who think they are smarter than everyone else vomiting their hate and puerile ideas at every opportunity. It's great to have civil intercourse, but that doesn't seem to happen anymore, just fanatics emerging from their echo chambers yelling abuse at each other.

More importantly: I'm working through a bottle of Jack atm. I realised it'd been so long since I had it I'd forgotten what it was like. Purely medicinal of course...cough cough...

[russellw]

6 new cases for Australia (although there were more overnight) and 1 death so CMR increases to 1.443% and active cases drop to 6.6% (470).

No new cases or deaths for NZ so CMR is the same and active cases remain at 1.5% (22).

The UK had just over 2k new cases but 592 deaths so the CMR is back up to 14.085%.

Just over 19k new cases in the USA and 767 deaths sees CMR down to 5.830% and active cases down to 66.3% but that's only a temporary improvement as there have already been more than 1,500 deaths today their time.

Other notable points:
Brazil passes 400k cases and 25k deaths and records more than 19k new cases;
Asia passes 1M cases;
Russia passes 9M tests;
Canada passes 1.5M tests;
Africa (5,091) and South America (33,050) had a record number of new cases yesterday;

Mali (39), South Korea (40), Nepal (114), Kenya (123),Sri Lanka (150),Azerbaijan (165), Djibouti (229), Philippines (380), Nigeria (389),Bolivia (476),Egypt (910),Colombia (1,101), South Africa (1,673), Mexico (3,455),Peru (6,154) and India (7,293) all recorded their highest daily total to date - those in blue on consecutive days and in red on the 3rd (or more) consecutive day.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Define way up there.

The media love those raw numbers to sensationalize the situation.

The USA CMR is a bit more than a third the UK. Belgium is beating the USA in pretty much every number, in a bad way. If you take the EU as a whole it's total population is similar to the USA, with some countries doing very well, like some states, and others are a trainwreck, like some states.

To reinforce this point, the USA CMR (based on adult population) is 5.848% and North America as a whole is 6.06%. The global figure is 6.172% and Europe is at 8.75% with several countries over 10.0 - including the UK, Sweden, Italy, France and Belgium.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by zilo

In the haste to get the covid spreader kids back to school two closures on the same day that kids went back.

Trust me it's safe...real important to get them kids back in child care (aka school) to pay for the next holiday or big plasma tv.

can't afford kids cause you both have to work for that mortgage? wear a friggin' condom or pull out...

They were private school and the kids have been back full time since the start of term.
It's only public schools that have just gone back full time.