Covid 19 -

[Cav]

Originally Posted by LG17

Donald and his merry men seem to be doing a fantastic job of controlling the disease...



"The death toll from coronavirus in the US has now surpassed 100,000, making it the first country to reach the grim milestone.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the US leads the world in both death toll and total case numbers.

Nearly 1.7 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19."


! Get the facts about Covid 19

Get the facts is right.


I suspect that the most notified cases from all over the world are the USA because people blame Trump for the virus and a big toll may hurt his chances come re-election time in November whereas in other countries their numbers cannot be relied upon.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Blue states.

How insanely tribal has America become that they would evaluate Covid statistics in terms of who people voted for.

WTF

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/u...ue-states.html

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

How insanely tribal has America become that they would evaluate Covid statistics in terms of who people voted for.

WTF

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/u...ue-states.html

Well it is what it is.

Research the Governor of New York (not his brother, who is a lead anchor at CNN) and his connection to nursing homes during this crisis.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by prydey

. While children are not immune, even globally they seem to be less contagious than adults. .

Based on what evidence?

[LG17]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Define way up there.

The media love those raw numbers to sensationalize the situation.

The USA CMR is a bit more than a third the UK. Belgium is beating the USA in pretty much every number, in a bad way. If you take the EU as a whole it's total population is similar to the USA, with some countries doing very well, like some states, and others are a trainwreck, like some states.

So overall the USA is slightly worse than the EU, but America bashers and Trump haters take every opportunity to whine about the American numbers, no one is leveling similar criticism at Europe.

We are now seeing emerge the 20/20 hindsight brigade, telling us how everyone got it wrong and they are all idiots. It's only taken a couple of months for them to forget no one knew how this was going to pan out and everyone did the best they could with the information to hand at the time.

AND...of course... it ain't over.

USA has done as best it could. They have significant % of people who are non compliant. They have tremendous economic strata. They have a multi tier government system with more power invested in states than we do. They have massive overseas exposure on both coasts.

It's REALLY easy to point out the problems in the world. Hippies have made a lifelong obsession about it. It's also really easy to sit around with your friends telling each other how clever you are and how easy it would be to fix the world. Try actually doing something and you find it ain't that easy and your "common sense" solutions have often been tried and shown to fail.

I hate the people in power across the world as much as anyone, but I also hate the idiots who think they are smarter than everyone else vomiting their hate and puerile ideas at every opportunity. It's great to have civil intercourse, but that doesn't seem to happen anymore, just fanatics emerging from their echo chambers yelling abuse at each other.

More importantly: I'm working through a bottle of Jack atm. I realised it'd been so long since I had it I'd forgotten what it was like. Purely medicinal of course...cough cough...

I don't think the USA has done the best they could. There's too many leaders running around like chooks with their heads cut off and too many who think they know more than the doctors and scientists.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Well it is what it is.

No it is not.

NewYork State makes up about a third of the stats for the whole of the USA. Take that state out and infection rates/deaths are fairly evenly spread across the county.
Does not make for a story if you have an agenda.

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Research the Governor of New York (not his brother, who is a lead anchor at CNN) and his connection to nursing homes during this crisis.

I would but I left my tin foil onesie at home.....

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by LG17

I don't think the USA has done the best they could. There's too many leaders running around like chooks with their heads cut off and too many who think they know more than the doctors and scientists.

US Intelligence monitors the Chinese govt communications and they claim they gave the president adequate warning. We will probably never be able to read those briefings given to the president. The concern is that he never read them either.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zilo

Based on what evidence?

There's no empirical data readily available. The few short studies that have been done (in the USA) show about 4.5% of deaths in the under 45 age group but most of those with underlying conditions including include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.

Indeed, those same studies show only 25% of deaths are not related to one of those co-morbidities and none for the under 17 age group.

In Australia 4.5% of all identified cases have been under 17 with no fatalities.

What is somewhat more interesting is that those studies also show almost a 62/38 split between male and female deaths which is quite different to Australia where we have an almost even split (51/49).

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

How insanely tribal has America become that they would evaluate Covid statistics in terms of who people voted for.

WTF

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/u...ue-states.html

They have seriously lost the plot.

have you noticed how the evangelicals have kept quite about Armageddon? Trumpy has their back

[Bossxr8]

CDC now claiming death rate is much lower than earlier predictions. So much for all the fools who sprouted the 20 times worse than the flu crap. Mindless sheep.



In addition to providing various rates of hospitalizations and infections, the CDC gave new estimates of the total fatality rate of the virus, ranging from about 0.1% (its least deadly scenario) to 0.8% (its deadliest scenario). The agency also cited a “best estimate” of 0.26%.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

CDC now claiming death rate is much lower than earlier predictions. So much for all the fools who sprouted the 20 times worse than the flu crap. Mindless sheep.



In addition to providing various rates of hospitalizations and infections, the CDC gave new estimates of the total fatality rate of the virus, ranging from about 0.1% (its least deadly scenario) to 0.8% (its deadliest scenario). The agency also cited a “best estimate” of 0.26%.

Everyone is smarter in hindsight

It's also a long way from being finished killing people.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

CDC now claiming death rate is much lower than earlier predictions. So much for all the fools who sprouted the 20 times worse than the flu crap. Mindless sheep.

In addition to providing various rates of hospitalizations and infections, the CDC gave new estimates of the total fatality rate of the virus, ranging from about 0.1% (its least deadly scenario) to 0.8% (its deadliest scenario). The agency also cited a “best estimate” of 0.26%.

There are an awful lot of assumptions in that data set with the major one being their estimate of identified v unidentified cases.

I should note that some US researchers are suggesting that only 1 in 12 Coronavirus cases is actually identified but even if this were true (and the Influenza case numbers were 100% accurate) that still makes the mortality rate higher for COVID19.

The COVID19 case mortality rate is currently much higher than Influenza - globally it is about 6.22% whereas Influenza is globally <1% and 0.1% in most developed countries even though there are huge variables in just how many cases go unreported for both.

Let's narrow that down. Influenza currently infects about 8% of the population in developed countries each year despite ~80% efficacious vaccines being available but reported cases are not a total of of all cases and the (US) mortality rate of 0.1% is based on the reported numbers and not the total number.

Using Australia as an example we reported 330k Influenza cases in 2019 for 1,255 deaths so that's a CMR of 0.38% but based on total case estimates (~2M) that drops back to 0.062%.

You could safely argue, using the USA as an example that the number of unreported (or unidentified) cases are similar for both given the other similarities they share. Thus if there are only 6 unreported flu cases for every reported one (based on Australia) and if COVID19 is similar then the real figure would give the USA a CMR of assuming all the unidentified cases survive) that is still close to 1%. Even if it was 12x as suggested above then the CMR is still 5x that of Influenza.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Polyal

They have seriously lost the plot.

have you noticed how the evangelicals have kept quite about Armageddon? Trumpy has their back

They never had it IMO.

Crazy place

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

How insanely tribal has America become that they would evaluate Covid statistics in terms of who people voted for.

WTF

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/u...ue-states.html

Blue states are mostly on teh coast. It is far more likely they have higher rates of infection because their populations were more internationally mobile and they are more exposed to overseas visitors. Exactly the same reason Sydney and Melbourne have more cases than Broken Hill and Roma.

" While children are not immune, even globally they seem to be less contagious than adults."

A couple of you responded to this with comments about children's infection rates and mortality. Note the original statement claims reduced _contagiousness_ (terrible word). I have seen no evidence that an infected child is more or less likely to spread the virus than an infected adult. Please correct me if I have missed something.

And to clarify: My previous statement regarding infection rates in the USA vs Europe (or South America for that matter) have nothing to do with the sort of prejudice driven minutia analysis the media and others cling to. The FACT is the USA is a unique situation as are most other jurisdictions. It's outcomes so far are not orders of magnitude different from comparable jurisdictions. I make no case for them doing especially well, but you cannot mount a reasonable case that they have done catastrophically badly. It does not matter if they are 10% or 20% worse than some random comparison. You can mount your soapbox and wave you fist about all you want, I guarantee if Hilary, you, scomo, bojo or marvin the martian was president you would not get a significantly different result. You would still have recalcitrant governors, vested interests and disobedient citizens.

We didn't do better (to date) thanks to our fearless leaders. We did better because we are an island, sparsely populated, with reasonable levels of compliance and a whole bunch of individuals who rolled up their sleeves.

Mm. 5:30. Time to get medicinal.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by russellw

There's no empirical data readily available. The few short studies that have been done (in the USA) show about 4.5% of deaths in the under 45 age group but most of those with underlying conditions including include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.

Indeed, those same studies show only 25% of deaths are not related to one of those co-morbidities and none for the under 17 age group.

In Australia 4.5% of all identified cases have been under 17 with no fatalities.

What is somewhat more interesting is that those studies also show almost a 62/38 split between male and female deaths which is quite different to Australia where we have an almost even split (51/49).

Thanks, but the context of my question related to contagiousness not deaths by under 17yo.

You can be a highly contagious school kid, and not die from it.

But...you go to school and bring it home to your parents and grandparents...and that is the problem

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by prydey

Everyone is smarter in hindsight

It's also a long way from being finished killing people.

More like not everyone bought into the media driven mass hysteria that 60,000 australians were going to die.

The sheep ate it up though.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

More like not everyone bought into the media driven mass hysteria that 60,000 australians were going to die.

The sheep ate it up though.

Which media outlet predicted 60,000 deaths in Australia?

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

More like not everyone bought into the media driven mass hysteria that 60,000 australians were going to die.

The sheep ate it up though.

Breaking news- when driving in a car you have to wear a seatbelt now- in a crash you will be exposed to injuries and a seabelt will reduce risks of injury.

Public: Bugger- we have to pay for the seatbelts, pain in the butt to wear all the time, infringes our freedoms, bugger- not wearing get a fine oh well might as well wear them.

Public member- crash car into wall at 50 kph with seatbelt on. No injuries whatsoever. Public member retorts- what was all the fuss about- that was not so bad- and I am ****ed I am out of pocket buying the seatbelts, the infringement of my rights, and the inconvenience of wearing it. All a waste of time- no injuries- see it was never needed

[zilo]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

. I have seen no evidence that an infected child is more or less likely to spread the virus than an infected adult. Please correct me if I have missed something.

.

Send one infected child to a school with a thousand other kids
Send one infected adult to a school with a thousand other kids

send both groups home to their grand parents or parents over 50.

interesting clinical trial....

[Citroënbender]

Is not “contagiousness” more correctly “contagion”?

[zilo]

Is not “contagiousness” more correctly “contagion”?




Nope.

[Citroënbender]

Why not?

[zilo]

Sorry I am not a lexicographer.

But I was learned proper at skool.

'Later I was teached to use doctor Google.

He nose every think.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/contagiousness


We can use contagiosity if you prefer?


.

[Fed]

Kids don't spread it because their germ ridden mouths are only knee high and all the bugs fall to the ground.
Stand tall & be safe!

[Cav]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Breaking news- when driving in a car you have to wear a seatbelt now- in a crash you will be exposed to injuries and a seabelt will reduce risks of injury.

Public: Bugger- we have to pay for the seatbelts, pain in the butt to wear all the time, infringes our freedoms, bugger- not wearing get a fine oh well might as well wear them.

Public member- crash car into wall at 50 kph with seatbelt on. No injuries whatsoever. Public member retorts- what was all the fuss about- that was not so bad- and I am ****ed I am out of pocket buying the seatbelts, the infringement of my rights, and the inconvenience of wearing it. All a waste of time- no injuries- see it was never needed

This could go in the dictionary as a classic straw man argument.

For your homework, how about an example of a fallacy in syllogistic reasoning?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[MITCHAY]

Tens of thousands of deaths has always been based on worse case modelling without measures to reduce it.

We have taken those measures and even with that I am gobsmacked we have not seen much worse than 100. We can never know for sure.

Now we have some people angry that many people didn't die

Then we have people who think that doctors and scientists (which have been long respected professions) are now considered money hungry self-interested bastards.

Meanwhile those same people are seemingly trusting of politicians who are have generally been considered out for themselves for as long as I can remember.

What the **** has gone wrong with this world?

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by Cav

Get the facts is right.


I suspect that the most notified cases from all over the world are the USA because people blame Trump for the virus and a big toll may hurt his chances come re-election time in November whereas in other countries their numbers cannot be relied upon.

Nobody is talking about the election. Can go shopping but can't go out and vote? lol. ''Vote by mail'' = easily rigged. This is why they don't want voter ID. I could post 50+ links of voter fraud.

And Picture a live debate with Joe Biden v Donald Trump. It would be a 20 year old Mike Tyson vs your dog.

[Citroënbender]

I present this textbook example of galvanic corrosion:



Reaction 1: Contractor declares it’s going to be a terrible water leak. Everyone in the house needs to pack up and move out while experts come in to remediate the issue and institute preventive measures. People do as told, and are eternally grateful the damage was limited to a few drips and a bucket of cash spent.

Reaction 2: The contractor pushes the galvanised ant capping away from the pipe, gives that a wiggle to make sure it’s still sound and says to the owner “Keep an eye on that every year or two”. Life goes on.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by zilo

Thanks, but the context of my question related to contagiousness not deaths by under 17yo.

You can be a highly contagious school kid, and not die from it.

But...you go to school and bring it home to your parents and grandparents...and that is the problem

Surely there is enough school kids back at school to ease the minds of the paranoid sections of society.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I present this textbook example of galvanic corrosion:

image

Reaction 1: Contractor declares it’s going to be a terrible water leak. Everyone in the house needs to pack up and move out while experts come in to remediate the issue and institute preventive measures. People do as told, and are eternally grateful the damage was limited to a few drips and a bucket of cash spent.

Reaction 2: The contractor pushes the galvanised ant capping away from the pipe, gives that a wiggle to make sure it’s still sound and says to the owner “Keep an eye on that every year or two”. Life goes on.

Reaction 3: That was just carbon and off colouring due to the heating done to bend it, nothing wrong.