Covid 19 -

[zilo]

Originally Posted by prydey

Surely there is enough school kids back at school to ease the minds of the paranoid sections of society.

Facts win educated people over every time over easily manipulated herds.

[FPV8U]

Any updates on testing in Australia relating to anti bodies or treatment therapy’s?

As active case at the moment appear to have stabilised at a very low number it would seem to be a opportune period to start to establish what the likely actual infection percentage of the population has been as we look forward to assessing the viability of further relaxing restrictions.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Any updates on testing in Australia relating to anti bodies or treatment therapy’s?

As active case at the moment appear to have stabilised at a very low number it would seem to be a opportune period to start to establish what the likely actual infection percentage of the population has been as we look forward to assessing the viability of further relaxing restrictions.

It seems a very reasonable question, but without testing the whole population at the same time,(i.e. not possible) how do we come up with better stats they we have now?

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by zilo

Facts win educated people over every time over easily manipulated herds.

Sweden has not closed schools and has not found they are a source of outbreaks, yet...

[CoupeKing]

cough Japan cough

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

It seems a very reasonable question, but without testing the whole population at the same time,(i.e. not possible) how do we come up with better stats they we have now?

Some countries have taken random samples to get an idea of how many have been infected. Done properly this is a reliable method to get data. Sweden found that approx 7% of their population had been infected at some time. This is a long way from the 60-70% needed to provide a natural herd immunity. I'm inclined to write their experiment off as a failure.

Their attempt to avoid lockdown and only isolate the vulnerable does not appear to have worked as the majority of deaths have been among the elderly in care homes. Although some figures are positive the majority of their economic indicators are negative. Export markets have collapsed (who needs a volvo during a pandemic), unemployment is equal to their scandanavian neighbours but the death rate is many times higher.

It seems they sacrificed the lives of their elderly and gained little.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

cough Japan cough

Are you choking on sushi??

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

It seems a very reasonable question, but without testing the whole population at the same time,(i.e. not possible) how do we come up with better stats they we have now?

As covered by PhilT2, it’s chasing a better sight picture as to what exposure the population has actually had rather than a current infection rate.

Realistically as you stated unless you could test everyone, you truely have no idea and are at the mercy of people coming forward to get tested to verify trends, the data is purely based on who comes forward based on how they feel.

The antibody test has the ability to be far more randomised, if they got the Red Cross involved as part of donation screening it would potentially be a massive win-win for increased donations and clear data.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

As covered by PhilT2, it’s chasing a better sight picture as to what exposure the population has actually had rather than a current infection rate.

Realistically as you stated unless you could test everyone, you truely have no idea and are at the mercy of people coming forward to get tested to verify trends, the data is purely based on who comes forward based on how they feel.

The antibody test has the ability to be far more randomised, if they got the Red Cross involved as part of donation screening it would potentially be a massive win-win for increased donations and clear data.

They are testing the sewage treatment plants; apparently they can get a good idea from the other end as well!

Bags not doing that job....

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Breaking news- when driving in a car you have to wear a seatbelt now- in a crash you will be exposed to injuries and a seabelt will reduce risks of injury.

Public: Bugger- we have to pay for the seatbelts, pain in the butt to wear all the time, infringes our freedoms, bugger- not wearing get a fine oh well might as well wear them.

Public member- crash car into wall at 50 kph with seatbelt on. No injuries whatsoever. Public member retorts- what was all the fuss about- that was not so bad- and I am ****ed I am out of pocket buying the seatbelts, the infringement of my rights, and the inconvenience of wearing it. All a waste of time- no injuries- see it was never needed

That was quite possibly the worst analogy i've ever heard.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

They are testing the sewage treatment plants; apparently they can get a good idea from the other end as well!

Bags not doing that job....

Dare I even ask how that would work?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

They are testing the sewage treatment plants; apparently they can get a good idea from the other end as well!

Bags not doing that job....

They do the same thing with our cities testing for traces of drugs to get a societal view of drug usage - traces come out of your system when you take a pee or a crap if you use.

Australians spent $9.3bn last year on cocaine, meth, MDMA and heroin, with cocaine and meth consumption rising from previous years.

Analysis of wastewater shows how much of each of the drugs is being consumed around the country, underlining the size of the black market.

The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission on Wednesday released its sixth national wastewater drug monitoring program report, which monitored 58 wastewater stations in July and August 2018.

It estimates more than 9.6 tonnes of methylamphetamine was consumed in Australia in the year to August 2018, along with four tonnes of cocaine, 1.1 tonnes of MDMA, and more than 700kg of heroin.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...stewater-shows

Industry is estimated to be worth $9.3B in Australia.

[Bossxr8]

https://www.caradvice.com.au/853406/...l-coronavirus/

They are installing a new mode that turns the heaters on full bore, with the engine idling at a higher rpm, to get the interior up to 56 degrees C for 15 minutes. Which is apparently enough to kill the virus.

[superyob]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Dare I even ask how that would work?

If they find one stamped Manufactured by FC Industries, there might be a knock on Franco's door...

[russellw]

11 new cases for Australia with another 7 overnight that will be in the figures tomorrow. No deaths so CMR drops to 1.441% and active cases drop to 6.5%.

No new cases but 1 death for NZ so CMR rises to 1.463% and active cases remain at 1.396% (21).

The UK had just under 1.9k new cases and 197 deaths so the CMR is back down to 14.059%.

Just over 20k new cases in the USA and 1,535 deaths sees CMR up to 5.849% and active cases down to 66.1%.

Other notable points:
The USA completes more than 16M tests;
Costa Rica (Charlie) reaches 1,000 cases;
Asia (25,111) recorded a new high for daily cases;

Mauritania (54), Mali (78), South Korea (79),Ethiopia (100), Kenya (147), Nepal (156), Azerbaijan (191),Iraq (322),Philippines (539),Bolivia (632),Oman (636), Argentina (769), Egypt (1,127),Colombia (1,262),Qatar (1,967), Bangladesh (2,029),Mexico (3,463) and India (7,300) all recorded their highest daily total to date - those in blue on consecutive days and in red on the 3rd (or more) consecutive day.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Dare I even ask how that would work?

It's just a giant urine sample.

[russellw]

There are some other countries not doing well. The data below is based on total population rather than the adult population numbers we usually look at.

Globally, the average CMR is 4.63 deaths per 100k of total population.

Several countries are well above this including: Andorra (66), Belgium (81), Canada (18), the Channel Islands (26), Ecuador (19), France (44), Ireland (33), the Isle of Man (28), Italy (55), the Netherlands (34), San Marino (123), Sint Maarten (34), Spain (58), Sweden (42), Switzerland (23), the UK (55) and the USA (31).

Likewise, the global average for detected infection rates is 75 cases per 100k total population but some are also way over that: Andorra (987), Armenia (277), Bahrain (591), Bangladesh (245), Belarus (419), Belgium (499), Canada (235), Chile (455), Djibouti (300), Faeroe Is (383), Falkland Is (374), France (285), Iceland (529), Ireland (503), Isle of Man (395), Italy (383), Kuwait (565), Luxembourg (640), the Netherlands (268), Panama (271), Peru (430), Qatar (1,767), Russia (260), San Marino (1,975), Saudi Arabia (230), Singapore (568), Spain (609), Sweden (353), Switzerland (356), UAE (329), UK (396) and the USA (534).

It's worth considering if any of those countries have high testing rates and thus are closer to getting 'real' infection rates and certainly some of them do. Here are the test percentages of the population for those listed above, sorted by cases low to high:

Saudi Arabia (230) 2.2%
Canada (235) 4.1%
Bangladesh (245) 1.7%
Russia (260) 6.6%
Armenia (277) 1.8%
France (285) 2.1%
Djibouti (300) 2.5%
UAE (329) 21.3%
Switzerland (356) 4.4%
Falkland Is (374) 14.4%
Faeroe Is (383) 19.2%
Italy (383) 6.0%
Isle of Man (395) 5.6%
UK (396) 5.7%
Belarus (419) 5.2%
Peru (430) 2.8%
Chile (455) 2.7%
Belgium (499) 7.0%
Ireland (503) 6.6%
Iceland (529) 17.6%
USA (534) 4.9%
Kuwait (565) 6.6%
Singapore (568) 5.7%
Bahrain (591) 17.5%
Spain (609) 7.6%
Luxembourg (640) 11.3%
Andorra (987) 4.8%
Qatar (1,767) 7.1%

There is some sort of pattern from that data although it isn't necessarily consistent but you could argue that the rate is somewhere between 300-600 infections per 100k of population although one of the common traits of those countries that have high test percentages is that they have low population bases and thus maybe the UAE (9M) and the UAE (1.6M) are the best examples above.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

It seems they sacrificed the lives of their elderly and gained little.

As I have said before it is too early to tell. You need to properly understand the reasoning behind their approach. It was never designed to yield short term results.

Unrelated: It amazes me there are people now complaining that fewer people died than expected. Over reaction ? Maybe. But if our fearless leaders had done less regardless of the toll people would be complaining about that. Go back in time, forget everything you have learned since february and let YOUR hand sign the orders. See if it trembles...

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by zilo

Send one infected child to a school with a thousand other kids
Send one infected adult to a school with a thousand other kids

send both groups home to their grand parents or parents over 50.

interesting clinical trial....

That is technically the opposite of what you said previously. I'm being pedantic here but what you TYPED was that children are more prone than adults to transmit the virus. What you have written above is that anyone put in a superspreader environment with an infected individual is equally likely to spread the virus.

The interesting thing is from what data I've seen it appears not to be so. There are jurisdictions all over the world where children have remained in school and other social environments and significant proportions of the outbreaks in that jurisdiction have not traced back to the institution.

1. I am prepared to be educated if you have data I've missed.

2. I do not understand the mechanism for this. It doesn't make sense, but it's not the only thing that doesn't make sense to me about infection rates. More research required.

A quick english lesson. I'm not normally a grammar nazi because lets face it I make mistakes, but since this seems to elude several of you:

Contagion: Noun. It is the name in this case of the virus or it's mechanism of spreading. It is a contagion.

Contagious: Adjective. Describes the state of the noun. The virus is contagious. The contagion is contagious (terrible sentence).

Contagiousness: Also a noun but this time does not refer to the contagion but rather it's state. It's contagiousness is high. It is highly contagious. High contagious is incorrect as is highly contagiousness. It's contagion is high is also incorrect. Although both are nouns the only way contagion and high can work is if the contagion is physically high, as in up in the air, not stoned.

5pm. Medicinal. Tonight I have to choose between Jack and an alcoholic ginger beer. Hmm. I am capable of making the tough choices...I got this...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

As I have said before it is too early to tell. You need to properly understand the reasoning behind their approach. It was never designed to yield short term results.

Unrelated: It amazes me there are people now complaining that fewer people died than expected. Over reaction ? Maybe. But if our fearless leaders had done less regardless of the toll people would be complaining about that. Go back in time, forget everything you have learned since february and let YOUR hand sign the orders. See if it trembles...

No one is complaining that fewer people died than expected. They are complaining because the media pumped up these extreme death toll scenarios in an effort to pump up ratings, and then when it didn't eventuate they keep pumping the second wave theory to keep people in fear and tuned in.

Plus the state governments were too slow to unlock things once it was shown it was overblown and completely under control. Especially Victoria. The lockdown restrictions should have been eased weeks earlier imo.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Plus the state governments were too slow to unlock things once it was shown it was overblown and completely under control. Especially Victoria. The lockdown restrictions should have been eased weeks earlier imo.

LMAO state governments were blamed when infection numbers were rising because they did not act fast enough to lock things down.

Now you believe they are not unlocking things fast enough...

I believe that means they got the balance about right.

In Victoria, Dan (Mr Careful) Andrews is sitting on a 75% approval rating.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

That is technically the opposite of what you said previously. I'm being pedantic here but what you TYPED was that children are more prone than adults to transmit the virus. .

Where?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

LMAO state governments were blamed when infection numbers were rising because they did not act fast enough to lock things down.

Now you believe they are not unlocking things fast enough...

I believe that means they got the balance about right.

In Victoria, Dan (Mr Careful) Andrews is sitting on a 75% approval rating.

No one even knows who the other guy is. And the state libs are a basketcase. Labor could run a potato and still win.

[PhilT2]

It appears the governor of Florida has been accused of altering the figures for the number of covid deaths in his state. Possibly not the only state involved in this activity.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ore-reasonable

[CoupeKing]

I did say earlier, check their post count.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

It appears the governor of Florida has been accused of altering the figures for the number of covid deaths in his state. Possibly not the only state involved in this activity.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ore-reasonable

This a little Old, but I poked around.
A newsweek article from 29 April speaks of this in the past tense.


My understanding says that for its own dashboard FL did not include data from Medical Examiners, However the full data was available to CDC.


GA is a different, but related issue. GA attempts to assign all Tests, deaths back to the time of the first symptom - This means that the last two weeks appears understated. This is only in the GA dashboard, data reported to CDC is not adjusted in this way



These differences are evident by comparing the states' health dept dashboards to Worldometers .. or, well, any other data aggregator.

[CoupeKing]

World Health Organisation

1948-202O

R.I.P.












Draining the swamp

[russellw]

23 new cases for Australia and no deaths so CMR drops to 1.436% and active cases rise to 6.8%.

No new cases or deaths for NZ so CMR is unchanged and active cases drop to 0.5% (7).

The UK had just over 2k new cases and 324 deaths so the CMR is back up to 14.070%.

Just over 22.5k new cases in the USA and 1,223 deaths sees CMR down to 5.843% and active cases down to 65.3%.

Other notable points:
Global case numbers pass the 6M mark;
Brazil almost hit the 30k new case mark;
Russia completed 10M tests;
The UK completed 4M tests;
Iran case numbers are increasing again after a long period of decline;
North America passed the 2M case mark;
Africa (5,957), South America (42,523) and Asia (29,168) recorded new highs for daily cases (Asia on consecutive days);

Hong Kong (13), Mauritania (77), Ethiopia (137), Nepal (170), Azerbaijan (230),Bahrain (397), Iraq (416), Armenia (460), Oman (811), Philippines (1,046), Egypt (1,289), Colombia (1,322), South Africa (1,837), Qatar (1,993), Bangladesh (2,523), Pakistan (2,801), Peru (6,506), India (8,105) and Brazil (29,526) all recorded their highest daily total to date - those in blue on consecutive days and in red on the 3rd (or more) consecutive day.

[russellw]

The first graphs today show what is happening across the continents in raw number and trend terms:





They are all trending upward - Africa and Asia have been steadily increasing over the last fortnight; Europe and North America are also rising slowly after a period of decline and South America is sharply increasing after a period of stability.

The next looks at some of the countries we have focused on - the good news is that the UK and Turkey case numbers have been trending downward for a month now but all of the others are trending back up over the last 10 days or so after a period of decline. Note that we've taken Brazil out of the graph as it has shot through the roof.



Next up are the trends for selected Asian countries over the last 30 days. In the first graph, the almost linear trends for Pakistan and Bangladesh with case numbers approaching 2,000 per day indicate that there is little sign of any control being gained over their outbreaks and although Afghanistan has much lower numbers, the trend line is similarly steep. On the positive side, Kuwait, Indonesia and the UAE, seem to be gaining ground.



In the next Asian group, Iraq and Oman continue to climb steeply while Armenia and Bahrain are still climbing but less rapidly while Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are both heading in the right direction.



The trends within Africa aren't much better. In this first graph both Egypt and South Africa are still rising steeply



This next group is a bit more balanced with Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya trending upward and Algeria trending downward while the remainder are reasonably steady.



The last graph shows the Ivory Coast climbing steeply, with shallower climbs for Mauritania and Mali while Togo has started to decline.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by zilo

Where?

Well:

Thanks, but the context of my question related to contagiousness not deaths by under 17yo.

You can be a highly contagious school kid, and not die from it.

But...you go to school and bring it home to your parents and grandparents...and that is the problem

and

In the haste to get the covid spreader kids back to school two closures on the same day that kids went back.

Trust me it's safe...real important to get them kids back in child care (aka school) to pay for the next holiday or big plasma tv.

can't afford kids cause you both have to work for that mortgage? wear a friggin' condom or pull out...