Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by kypez

Sigh. This is where I'll stop responding to you given it's clear you're biased beyond comprehension.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Any comparison or quotations of European or such like proposals is totally irrelevant to Australia.

Of course it's relevant. We dont make cars. If they stop making ICEs, we have little option but to get on board.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by hayseed

image

Now I know you're just trolling.

I'm literally the least biased person! I have both EV's and V8's. I've had LPG, 6 cylinder Turbos, 4 cylinder Falcons, Audi's, Mercs; I'm totally open minded about all types of transport and propulsion from any company though I probably would never buy a Holden or a Toyota Camry. Heck, my last purchase was a V8 Mustang... Not an EV.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by b0son

Of course it's relevant. We dont make cars. If they stop making ICEs, we have little option but to get on board.

So USA, Japan, Korea, Thailand etc etc are all going to stop making ICE for other markets, get real.

Forget the euro mob as it's not rocket science to accept that many manufacturers will also have EV models and some may confine their production to EV's but most will continue to also have ICE models for other markets and to not do so will be at their peril.

Do you seriously believe Toyota will stop making ICE for Australia, Africa and Arabian countries etc being their largest markets for Hilux's, Cruisers etc. An EV Cruiser will never cut the mustard with Oz grey nomads and many others holiday cruising in Australia nor would it be practical in any manner whatsoever.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

So USA, Japan, Korea, Thailand etc etc are all going to stop making ICE for other markets, get real.

Of course not, but those other markets will increasingly be third/second world nations. Low end cars good for point A to point B driving and little else. That's hardly going to service the majority of Aus new car buyers.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Mate, FFS I'll give you a hint about the REAL world we live in.

It's called Australia and it's not a fart sized tin pot European country that you could drive across in an hour. Any comparison or quotations of European or such like proposals is totally irrelevant to Australia.

Most also have massive populations compared to our measly 25m so when you're crammed in a fart box country EV's use probably can make some sense, especially when most also have nuclear power for easy charging. Piddly sized France apparently has over 100 whereas Australia has zero and would have to rely on useless windmills or eveready's.

By all means if it floats you boat talking about the "other" worlds use of EV's go ahead but anyone who thinks Australia is going to go anywhere near being mostly EV in the foreseeable future is smoking some good sh*t and need to face Australia's reality.

While Australia has a small population in a big land mass, it is still one of the most heavily urbanised populations in the world at 86%. This makes Australia more urbanised than the UK(84%), USA (83%), France (81%), Germany (77%), etc

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...alue_desc=true

As for European push ... well ... the biggest EV firm at present happens to be American (go figure).

For most Australians, the EV is a workable proposition. In Australia, the average car trip is 36km per day. Well within existing range of current generation EV. And, unlike an ICE, the EV can be recharged at home overnight, completely resetting its range back to maximum each day.

And while the roads are full of big 4WD, the sad fact is that a large percentage are Toorak Tractors that never climb over anything bigger than the speed bump at the local shopping centre. I am sure yummy mummies will be quite happy in their cybertruck, F150, EQC, Rivian, et al.

I also think it is a serious mistake to think that "country folk" are wedded to ICE. When I am bush, I get quizzed (being a sparkie and all that...) about my impressions of where solar PV, battery, and EV technology is at. I know a few isolated farmers who are surprisingly well briefed. They all have long term plans for large PV arrays, battery banks, and toys like F150 Lightning. They already harvest the sun, rain (storing it in local dams), and land to produce cattle. So they feel quite comfortable at harvesting more sunshine to produce electricity and storing the rest in batteries for a rainy day or two. All they are waiting for is for the costs to come down.

As for how long the twilight is, it is generally accepted that it took around 50 years for the ICE to replace horses. I suspect that it will probably take that long for EV to replace ICE. If we assume that EV technology became accessible, say, in 2020, that implies the changeover from ICE to EV wont be complete until sometime in 2070.

[xxx000]

Funny how people crap on about the size of Australia and claim that makes EV's not feasible here.
Setting up charging stations in remote areas is far easier than building a servo and they don't require deliveries of multiple fuel types.
The notion that charging stations is an insurmountable issue or one that's going to take 10 years or more to 'solve' (to their satisfaction) is preposterous unless you have an illogical hatred towards EV's that blinds normal thought processes.
It's a bit like the anti vaxxers who magically have 'found' something secret on the Internet that proves they are right.
As some have stated already, farmers are aware of the upcoming changes and many have plans in place to embrace it, to their benefit.
By all means, keep on resisting the inevitable if you like but I note some already have stopped the regular 'snake oil salesman' BS that was rampant on here previously.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by kypez

Sigh. This is where I'll stop responding to you given it's clear you're biased beyond comprehension. As with others in these forums, I cannot share sources and have shared a lot, even Ford related, that I've been privy to in the past and all were accurate and even got in a little trouble with Ford for sharing too much.

Anyway, the source is the source. I have no vested interest in Tesla doing well or not. I have no shares in them and get no bonus if people buy them or not.

Have fun on the Forum Maurice.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

shruggs shoulders emoji.
A response similar we've seen before, labelling.
As in any forum its prudent to think who might be behind the keyboard. Many would be privvy and subject to question from sources if need be for there's always someone watching or being advised.
Vested interest isn't in the equation but when projected sales numbers from shipments or forward orders as quoted in the past, sooner or later people call you or anyone out right.
Yet you ridicule information that was brought in (even though I shouldn't as well and you fob off) to discussion - large and small companies I know (some global) have paid thousands and thousands for.
Software sourced and worked with to suit our carpark similar/same used by large EU/USA organisations.
I'll have to send an email to our Industry bodies that were working with a bogus invalid system.

whynot makes more sense on the subject compared to your last few posts.
Sorry it offends or whatever for obviously it triggered.

Yes have wonderful day.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by xxx000

Funny how people crap on about the size of Australia and claim that makes EV's not feasible here.
Setting up charging stations in remote areas is far easier than building a servo and they don't require deliveries of multiple fuel types.
The notion that charging stations is an insurmountable issue or one that's going to take 10 years or more to 'solve' (to their satisfaction) is preposterous unless you have an illogical hatred towards EV's that blinds normal thought processes.
It's a bit like the anti vaxxers who magically have 'found' something secret on the Internet that proves they are right.
As some have stated already, farmers are aware of the upcoming changes and many have plans in place to embrace it, to their benefit.
By all means, keep on resisting the inevitable if you like but I note some already have stopped the regular 'snake oil salesman' BS that was rampant on here previously.

It’s much easier carrying jerry cans of fuel in remote areas, than to carry a generator or solar panels to recharge from.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by b0son

Of course it's relevant. We dont make cars. If they stop making ICEs, we have little option but to get on board.

How many of these Euro cities are building cars? and though Australia doesn't manufacture maybe check where our cars are built.

you are right though, we can only get on board with what is produced and though there may not be many V8s anymore they will be making ICE for years to come.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It’s much easier carrying jerry cans of fuel in remote areas, than to carry a generator or solar panels to recharge from.

True. The energy density of liquid fuel is far superior to chemical batteries at present, and will probably remain that way for awhile.

However, in thinking about emergency energy, don't rule out fuel cells over ICE. It is quite possible that the 4WD of the future for remote work is an EV with a backup source of a couple jerry cans of methanol and a direct methanol fuel cell to burn it in.

Regardless, the example (of needing jerry cans for range extension), while very valid, is an edge case as most automobiles have not, and never will, leave the bitumen.

[whynot]

For those interested in current EV manufacturing in AU check out these links

https://www.voltra.net.au/

https://www.zeroautomotive.com.au/

https://www.tembo4x4-elv.com/

[kypez]

Originally Posted by whynot

For those interested in current EV manufacturing in AU check out these links

https://www.voltra.net.au/

https://www.zeroautomotive.com.au/

https://www.tembo4x4-elv.com/

Maybe move these to the EV topics rather than flood this one. Also, no point trying to share anything about EVs here. The ones that are interested and open minded already are checking them out. And those who are stuck in their ways and refuse to try anything new, will be just that. The "what if" brigade will no doubt always shout out. EVs will never be all things to everyone just like Petrol cars aren't nor are Diesels. If you say solar, they'll come back that they do most of their driving at night time...

Poor Poyal was opening this thread with what ICE cars to enjoy whilst they are still relevant.

[FTE217]

I’m sure Polyal is absolutely fine you could easily carry on with the subject.
Moral high ground approach not warranted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Crazy Dazz]

Let's be honest, you'd have to be mentally-challenged to buy an EV at this point.
And that's what all the dribblers can't seem to understand. It's not like buying shares In Microsoft or Google.
If EVs are a viable proposition in 5, 10, or 20 years, then buy one THEN. It will presumably be cheaper and hopefully better.
If you've got $175K+ to drop on a Tesla S, then have at it, but I could definitely find better ways to spend that kind of money.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

If you've got $175K+ to drop on a Tesla S, then have at it, but I could definitely find better ways to spend that kind of money.

Well you don't. So move on.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by b0son

Of course not, but those other markets will increasingly be third/second world nations. Low end cars good for point A to point B driving and little else. That's hardly going to service the majority of Aus new car buyers.

You must have not comprehended that the words "other Markets" also includes Australia and its hardly likely Toyota for instance will ignore the continued need Hilux's and Cruisers along with the "others" such as the UAE market, who would not appreciate being labelled a second or third world nation who love their Cruisers.

Originally Posted by whynot

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I also think it is a serious mistake to think that "country folk" are wedded to ICE.......................

You must be talking to greenie hobby farmers. All the serious farmers and Station owners I've ever spoken to will only have diesel farm equipment and vehicles and won't have it any other way. No matter what the circumstances are they depend on diesel ICE to always fire up when needed for a long hard days work. I can't really quote on here what they say about EV's lovers.

............ If we assume that EV technology became accessible, say, in 2020 - typo ?" , that implies the changeover from ICE to EV wont be complete until sometime in 2070.

Bugger me that sums it up. 2070 !!!! Why are we even talking about this now. As I've said before and with your now projection virtually all of us will be camping underground well before then and be of no use to a worm whatsoever.

I guess maybe by then Australia might have finally made the move to nuclear power so as to recharge these things as solar or windmills won't cut it.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by kypez

I'm literally the least biased person!.

If you say So..


I'm out.........

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

You must have not comprehended that the words "other Markets" also includes Australia

and Australia is a small market in the context of places like Africa and India. we wont dictate the spec of cars sold here, economics will. ICEs will increasingly make up the bottom end of the market.

Toyota will plug the gap with hybrids going forward, but we've already seen they are moving down to smaller engines in the LC. there's a reason Toyota hold the most patents of anyone in solid-state battery tech, and it isnt because of cranking power to start an ICE.

who knows how long the move to BEV will take, but ICE probably wont be sold new in western markets within the next 10-15 years.

[ozrunner]

Originally Posted by b0son

and Australia is a small market in the context of places like Africa and India. we wont dictate the spec of cars sold here, economics will

Really.

In late Sept 2019 Toyota announced the following but I guess it doesn't really mean anything to Toyota.

Toyota Motor Corporation today announced Australians have bought more LandCruisers than any other country as the iconic vehicle brand passes 10 million global sales.

USA is the biggest importer of all Toyota's and unlike many other manufacturers Toyota build both RHD and LHD of its models and proper versions no cobbled imitations. So given the US market requirements alone and not to mention the other markets just for Cruisers including the largest, ie Australia are you seriously suggesting that Toyota will replace all these with hybrids in the very near future but given the comment below I guess so.

You appear to have a propensity to ignore the facts so let me give you some.

EV new car sales in 2020 in Oz represented 0.7% and in 2019 0.6% and bugger me sales of all EV's and hybrids apparently only represented 4.2% of worldwide sales so when is this EV tsumani you keep referring to happening and will I actually live to see it.

Notwithstanding the above facts you then make the dumbest statement ever made on this issue;

Originally Posted by b0son

who knows how long the move to BEV will take, but ICE probably wont be sold new in western markets within the next 10-15 years.

So there you have it guys these 3 muppets have decreed that possibly as early as 2031 (10 years) all new cars sold in western markets including Oz will all be BEV or EV or maybe even have pedals but NOT ICE. But realistic people put new sales of EV's in OZ still only around 18% by 2030. WTF they must be wrong as you guys reckon it's likely to be 100%.

How could supposedly intelligent people {Hmmm} support such a dumbass comment given the facts but more so obviously believe it. Boson are you really Bill Shorten?

Honestly guys the mind boggles.

There is an obvious place for EV use in Australia but given all the prevailing factors they will not take the place of ICE in our lifetime.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

In late Sept 2019 Toyota announced the following but I guess it doesn't really mean anything to Toyota.

They still dropped the V8, despite our protests. Both LC and Hilux are going to be available as hybrids from 2023. It's getting harder and harder to get diesels over the line in terms of emissions, so small capacity petrol turbo hybrids appears to be where the ICE is headed this decade. Meanwhile, a number of manufacturers have committed to ditching ICE altogether. As soon as Toyota has its solid-state battery ready for market, I believe it will do the same. Toyota play the volume game, and it doesnt make good economic sense to have lots of bespoke shapes of cookie cutter.

EV new car sales in 2020 in Oz represented 0.7% and in 2019 0.6% and bugger me sales of all EV's and hybrids apparently only represented 4.2% of worldwide sales so when is this EV tsumani you keep referring to happening and will I actually live to see it.

Australia sold more than double the EVs in the first half of 2021 than in all of 2020. In the US, over the least 6 years, YoY market share growth for EVs has been around 35%. That means that in under 10 years, EVs could go from <4% to over 50% market share in the US.

Do you think if a single category shows that type of growth, manufacturers wont scramble to ride that train? If you don't believe me, just look at how the SUV has changed the motoring landscape. It destroyed local car manufacturing, and tempted sportscar companies to get in on the action.

So there you have it guys these 3 muppets

Not sure why you're taking this so personally.

BTW, go back and read my posts here and in the Tesla thread. I've hardly been drinking the BEV Kool aid, just that at some point, the writing on the wall becomes obvious.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Really.

In late Sept 2019 Toyota announced the following but I guess it doesn't really mean anything to Toyota.

Toyota Motor Corporation today announced Australians have bought more LandCruisers than any other country as the iconic vehicle brand passes 10 million global sales.

USA is the biggest importer of all Toyota's and unlike many other manufacturers Toyota build both RHD and LHD of its models and proper versions no cobbled imitations. So given the US market requirements alone and not to mention the other markets just for Cruisers including the largest, ie Australia are you seriously suggesting that Toyota will replace all these with hybrids in the very near future but given the comment below I guess so.

You appear to have a propensity to ignore the facts so let me give you some.

EV new car sales in 2020 in Oz represented 0.7% and in 2019 0.6% and bugger me sales of all EV's and hybrids apparently only represented 4.2% of worldwide sales so when is this EV tsumani you keep referring to happening and will I actually live to see it.

Notwithstanding the above facts you then make the dumbest statement ever made on this issue;



So there you have it guys these 3 muppets have decreed that possibly as early as 2031 (10 years) all new cars sold in western markets including Oz will all be BEV or EV or maybe even have pedals but NOT ICE. But realistic people put new sales of EV's in OZ still only around 18% by 2030. WTF they must be wrong as you guys reckon it's likely to be 100%.

How could supposedly intelligent people {Hmmm} support such a dumbass comment given the facts but more so obviously believe it. Boson are you really Bill Shorten?

Honestly guys the mind boggles.

There is an obvious place for EV use in Australia but given all the prevailing factors they will not take the place of ICE in our lifetime.

State Governor Kathy Hochul signed a bill earlier this week which will require 100 per cent of vehicle sales by 2035 to come from zero emissions vehicles, effectively eradicating ICEs from passenger vehicles in the area – while a mandate for heavy vehicles likely won't be introduced until 2045.

While manufacturers such as Rivian, Lucid, Fisker and Tesla already provide an all-electric model line-up, the 'Big Three' of Ford and Dodge haven't made specific committed to a date they were transition to an EV future – leaving only GM which has said it won't produce light duty ICE vehicles by 2035.

The European Union has recently table a proposal to ban the sale of ICE vehicles by 2035, while the UK has already introduced measures to stop new vehicles being produced from 2030.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news...k-ice-ban-2035


https://www.motoringresearch.com/adv...-petrol-diesel

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

You must be talking to greenie hobby farmers. All the serious farmers and Station owners I've ever spoken to will only have diesel farm equipment and vehicles and won't have it any other way. No matter what the circumstances are they depend on diesel ICE to always fire up when needed for a long hard days work. I can't really quote on here what they say about EV's lovers.

Agree, I don't know any real farmer around here that would use anything besides diesel.

Compared to some of these trendy alledged green towns around who are just city hobby farmers playing farm.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It’s much easier carrying jerry cans of fuel in remote areas, than to carry a generator or solar panels to recharge from.

Also only takes 15 minutes to refuel from jerry cans, not 12 hours from your 2KVA generator

Let's face it, the moment battery technology improves, ICE is dead in the water, I'm just very suspicious on the timelines imposed by various governments in Europe.

Remember, electric cars predate internal combustion engines.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Agree, I don't know any real farmer around here that would use anything besides diesel.

Compared to some of these trendy alledged green towns around who are just city hobby farmers playing farm.

and most i know have multipul on site tanks usually diesel tax paid 1 or 2 tanks diesel tax exempt a few tanks around the farm and unleaded small one near house for their "lux non 4wd hsv or fpv car"

[wodahs]

and with these being so easy to install and have card ability either sat mobile or hard comms wired
basically they only need a tanker to fill them even farms can become fuel outlets
my company has a few of these dotted round the place for us and the general public

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by wodahs

and with these being so easy to install and have card ability either sat mobile or hard comms wired
basically they only need a tanker to fill them even farms can become fuel outlets
my company has a few of these dotted round the place for us and the general public
image

Only have 600ltrs storage capacity. I would love one of those at my place for my biodiesel but I think the neighbour will notice.

[PG2]

All well and good to debate something and I completely understand that this is a very hot topic, however...

Keep the personal insults out of it. Quite frankly, between this thread and others around at the moment I am starting to lose patience again.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Only have 600ltrs storage capacity. I would love one of those at my place for my biodiesel but I think the neighbour will notice.

ours are 80000lts a tank and some sites have 3 or 4 on them
tho ive seen them as small as a 10ft container to a 50ft one
the front is separable and is the pumping facility
also see them popping up round perth lately as unmaned fuel/card only service stations
mine sites have the older round ones that need a crane to install but these can be placed with swinglifters cart and place buy one truck driver the sparky comes wires them up

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by wodahs

ours are 80000lts a tank and some sites have 3 or 4 on them
tho ive seen them as small as a 10ft container to a 50ft one
the front is separable and is the pumping facility
also see them popping up round perth lately as unmaned fuel/card only service stations
mine sites have the older round ones that need a crane to install but these can be placed with swinglifters cart and place buy one truck driver the sparky comes wires them up

I've seen them in a few transport yards around here, local biodiesel plant at Barnawatha has a couple.

Sort of on topic......Anyone from Sydney know it the biofuel service station is still in operation in Marrickville, heard they were shutting down due to some locals complaining.Also heard they were going mobile 5000ltr min delivered to your door.