Covid 19 -

[Citroënbender]

Interesting episode à maison this morning, new personal care service starting for my father as I look to ramp up the “hands on” care. Brothers had agreed with me that a woman was preferred for showering and general personal hygiene. When she arrived, it was the same chick who’d been previously here as a cleaner two years ago!

The relevance? Working legitimately on a visa, no PR, no single employer, no fixed workplaces. A perfect candidate for contracting and then spreading coronavirus. I wasn’t annoyed, more dismayed for this woman’s sake. If she gets sick, she’s just discarded, and potentially on the next plane home.

You’d think that it might be sensible to lock in your health and aged care workforce so far as possible. Fixed places of work, confirmed residency, ideally one employer. Better than running a sickness lottery.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Fed

Russell could you define "CMR" there seems to be so many different ways of expressing these numbers it's starting to hurt my head.

I'm sure you did make mention of it earlier in the thread but at ~150 pages... you know.

Case mortality rate. Deaths vs infections.

[russellw]

466 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so CMR drops to 0.993% and active cases rise to 4,221. NSW recorded 16 and the balance were in Victoria except for 1 in SA.

No new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.415% and active cases remain at 27.

The UK recorded 560 new cases and 79 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.352%.

Just over 67k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,119 deaths sees CMR down to 3.598% and active cases at 49.6% with the raw numbers still rising and passing the 2M mark. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases set a new daily high of 261,894 (a rise of 5%) and that will go higher when all the numbers are in;
The USA completes 50M and Germany 7M tests;
North America and Europe both pass 200K deaths;
Asia sets a new high for daily cases with 72,660;
South America sets a new high for daily cases with 76,992;

El Salvador (393), Venezuela (443), Israel (2,043), Argentina (5,782), India (45,599) and Brazil (60,982) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Was about to post saying that with attitudes like the below, it's no wonder the authorities are having trouble keeping things under control once a hot spot appears.

I just don't get it....

More than 200 people supposed to be under self-quarantine in Queensland have vanished, with most suspected of giving false contact details at the border.

Just another example of how today's society doesn't respect authority.

People look at the statistics, 99.7% survival rate. And then wonder why bother. That's why.

That, and covid fatigue. People are just over it and are willing to take their chances.

Don't shoot the messenger.


But people who are confirmed to have it, and then don't isolate, and willingly spread it around are scumbags.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

People look at the statistics, 99.7% survival rate. And then wonder why bother. That's why.

That, and covid fatigue. People are just over it and are willing to take their chances.

Don't shoot the messenger.


But people who are confirmed to have it, and then don't isolate, and willingly spread it around are scumbags.

So, any of those reasons make it ok to blatantly lie to an authority just so that you can do whatever you feel like whilst the authorities are trying to control an epidemic?

I must have been raised with a different morale compass than some.

[Fed]

Originally Posted by prydey

Case mortality rate. Deaths vs infections.

Thanks prydey.

Death Vs Total Infections or Resolved Infections?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

Russ, do you have a graph showing the fatality trend from the start? I believe the fatalities normally follow about 4-6 weeks behind the infection rate. Probably too early to tell if the deaths will follow the same initial trend.

Not sure if this really shows what we are trying to see. It's the logarithmic case and mortality trends and 5 day moving average. You can see the case and mortality spikes being roughly mirrored with an approximately two-week shift in the spikes.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Fed

Thanks prydey.

Death Vs Total Infections or Resolved Infections?

It's deaths vs identified infections.

As I said earlier, it's a bit misleading really because the more testing you do (and therefore the more cases you identify) the lower the CMR is likely to be.

It's probably only directly comparable between countries that have tested similar percentages of their population but in the absence of any other measure, it's as good as any.

We are a case in point. Back in the early days of the pandemic our CMR was as high as 3.84% based on the fact that we'd done very little testing and only had the severe cases. We've now done a lot of testing (20% of the adult population) and the CMR is down to below 1%. Interestingly, the USA has tested a similar percentage of their adult population (24%) but their CMR is still almost 3.6% and the UK has tested 26.5% for a CMR that is still above 15%.

[Fed]

Thanks Russell.

[russellw]

That also raises another interesting point about Australia. We have been doing a lot of testing recently but we still have one of the highest test:case ratio in the world.

We test 282 people for every positive case (only NZ with 287 is higher) with the UK next highest at 46 and the USA at 12. The global average is 24.

There are a couple of other countries with higher ratios but they have generally done little testing or have very few cases.

It does probably highlight the inaccuracy of the Chinese numbers as they have only tested 6.5% of the population but have supposedly conducted over 1,000 tests per identified case.

[Fed]

That suggests to me that the lower countries are only testing sick people where we are testing wider band.

Overwhelmed & Surrender VS Search & Isolate.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

So, any of those reasons make it ok to blatantly lie to an authority just so that you can do whatever you feel like whilst the authorities are trying to control an epidemic?

I must have been raised with a different morale compass than some.

Where did I say it was ok? Really have no idea how you managed to make that silly assumption from what I said

I just gave reasons why some people would no longer care. I didn't say anything about my own views.

[.:4:.]

I noticed a small sign at the counter of 7/11 when i was getting fuel in today, they sell masks but theyre behind the counter. If in need it saves lining up with potential desiesed rats at a chemist.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by russellw

Not sure if this really shows what we are trying to see. It's the logarithmic case and mortality trends and 5 day moving average. You can see the case and mortality spikes being roughly mirrored with an approximately two-week shift in the spikes.

image

So there is some correlation...

In a couple of weeks I guess we'll start to hear of more deaths?

[Franco Cozzo]

How you Mexicans going with your masks?

I had the horse mask on at work for a bit for some lols

I've got the reusable home made job going at the moment, it gets real moist though, I still keep it on while talking on the phone I just yell over the phone and they can hear me OK

No mask - no entry at work, haven't seen anyone without one so far today.

I noticed no one on ABC News this morning had a mask on?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

So there is some correlation...

In a couple of weeks I guess we'll start to hear of more deaths?

Unfortunately, yes. Even at the present CMR of under 0.993%, the 4,085 new cases in the last 14 days will top out at some 40 deaths. In Victoria, we currently have 216 of the current 3,147 cases in hospital with 40 of those in ICU and 24 being ventilated but those numbers will probably climb for a couple more days before the deaths reduce them.

I've not seen any data on what the survival rate is for those admitted to ICU or being ventilated but I'd guess it's not all that great. Nationally, 6% of active cases are in hospital; 1.18% of active cases are in ICU and 0.71% of active cases are being intubated. Those ICU numbers are pretty close to the CMR which would support the view that the survival rate is low at best.

PS - I did find some early research that suggested the survival rate for intubated patients was 10% or less but more recent studies seem a bit more optimistic.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by russellw

Unfortunately, yes. Even at the present CMR of under 0.993%, the 4,085 new cases in the last 14 days will top out at some 40 deaths. In Victoria, we currently have 216 of the current 3,147 cases in hospital with 40 of those in ICU and 24 being ventilated but those numbers will probably climb for a couple more days before the deaths reduce them.

I've not seen any data on what the survival rate is for those admitted to ICU or being ventilated but I'd guess it's not all that great. Nationally, 6% of active cases are in hospital; 1.18% of active cases are in ICU and 0.71% of active cases are being intubated. Those ICU numbers are pretty close to the CMR which would support the view that the survival rate is low at best.

Once you're on ventilation the survival rate is pretty low unfortunately.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Once you're on ventilation the survival rate is pretty low unfortunately.

I've seen a figure of 50%, but that was for the UK early on in the pandemic. Although no "miracle cure" has been found, I would expect that doctors have learned something by now and survival rates should have improved lf only slightly.

Can't find a link but it was on one of John Campbell's youtube videos I think.

[cheap]

Kick a Vic on steroids!

https://youtu.be/gTKiF58UZrQ 😂

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by cheap

Kick a Vic on steroids!

https://youtu.be/gTKiF58UZrQ 😂

Love it.

[Work Horse]

Mark Brandon "Chopper" Read born 17 November 1954 in;

MELBOURNE

Is there nothing we are not good at?

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Once you're on ventilation the survival rate is pretty low unfortunately.

That has been the case for most other countries, Australia has done much better so far.

'Of 118 patients placed on mechanical ventilators, 78 per cent have survived'.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/best...14-p55byq.html

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by cheap

Kick a Vic on steroids!

https://youtu.be/gTKiF58UZrQ 😂

Gold. If that isn't a warning not to replace an industrial base with a festivals and dining services economy, I don't know what is lol

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Just heard on 7 news that 1 in 4 in intensive care are under the age of 50.

Apparently there are quite a number under the age of 30 in ICU who did not have any underlying health issues.

Anyone who still thinks this is an old person's issue needs to have a rethink.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

How you Mexicans going with your masks?

I had the horse mask on at work for a bit for some lols

I've got the reusable home made job going at the moment, it gets real moist though, I still keep it on while talking on the phone I just yell over the phone and they can hear me OK

No mask - no entry at work, haven't seen anyone without one so far today.

I noticed no one on ABC News this morning had a mask on?

They mentioned it 3 or 4 times thru the program, that they are not wearing masks so the hearing impaired can still read their lips........

[Tickford.]

Daniel Andrews had a message for those people who don't quarantine after being tested - delivered through the AUSLAN interpreter.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

They mentioned it 3 or 4 times thru the program, that they are not wearing masks so the hearing impaired can still read their lips........

Yeah that's why we have teletext/subtitles.

Same with 9 news tonight in Melbourne CBD tonight with their reporter being the only person on the street without a mask.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's deaths vs identified infections.

As I said earlier, it's a bit misleading really because the more testing you do (and therefore the more cases you identify) the lower the CMR is likely to be.

It's probably only directly comparable between countries that have tested similar percentages of their population but in the absence of any other measure, it's as good as any.
......

I have noticed in USA that CMR is no a really good comparitor between places, but can be good over time if things are stable, by things I mean the many subjectivities in the figures.
Did he die 'of' or 'with' test verified Covid ?
Did he die with symptoms like covid, but we never proved it ?

Did he get test verified 4 months ago and then 2weeks later test negative then die today ?
Did the 'for profit' hospital fudge the books to get more money ?
If say I am tested today and have it, then retest in 2w, still have it, then retest next day, still have it, the retest a week later and am clear - how many people am I, how many cases get recorded ?

[cheap]

Interesting video regarding C19 and what it does to the body and a very promising treatment for C19.

https://youtu.be/wqDd7ixh184

Raises the question, do people actually die from C19? As it seems C19 interferes with the bodies immune system such that other virus get a hold i.e. influenza.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by cheap

Interesting video regarding C19 and what it does to the body and a very promising treatment for C19.

https://youtu.be/wqDd7ixh184

Raises the question, do people actually die from C19? As it seems C19 interferes with the bodies immune system such that other virus get a hold i.e. influenza.

Dr Campbell, (PhD, not MD), is a great communicator and spends most days in his retirement putting out these free YouTubes to inform the public.

Interestingly his free information may also persuade stock market investors....