Covid 19 -

[ute83]

We get the government (leader)we deserve me thinks.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Stick this up the anti Vics!

Victorians are proving more resilient than the rest of Australia may realise
https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...28-p55q7y.html


And this...

The Herald Sun Tried To Torpedo Dan Andrews With A Popularity Poll & It Did Not Go Well
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/heral...-opinion-poll/

68% to 32% on 175k votes.

Good news and full support and I think Dan has done a remarkable job too

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

As Russell said strictly speaking the Red Duster goes with the Australian Registered Ship, although having said that, just poking my head out here in the marina i can see at least half a dozen tattered dusters fluttering around, go to the Chandlery here and you can buy a made in china one for $30-

Outside of officialdom flag etiquette has lost much of it's relevance these days...

Apologies, drifted of topic

Thanks DJR351 - some of us still care about flags flying properly.

[Sprintey]

To ad to news snippets, from yesterday:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...by-13/12605186

Tatts club in Sydney CBD,
Greater Sydney/Cenny coast advised not to visit age care

If there's one thing we've learned in Vic, it's that this thing can get away from you really fast, so good luck NSW, QLD and Perth.

And thanks to Russell for those polynomial charts, I think I learned something!
Would it be accurate to say they are 1st derivative, 2nd derivative charts, or something else?

[Sprintey]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...tions/12607350

Also I think Schoolies in QLD 2020 has been cancelled - just all the events cancelled?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...tions/12607350

Also I think Schoolies in QLD 2020 has been cancelled - just all the events cancelled?

Oh no! all the Goldy Drug dealers will have to go on job seeker!

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Oh no! all the Goldy Drug dealers will have to go on job seeker!

You mean JobKeeper right?

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

If there's one thing we've learned in Vic, it's that this thing can get away from you really fast, so good luck NSW, QLD and Perth.

A couple of weeks back, ScoMo pulled out the trumpet and gave it a blow saying NSW is the perfect example of how a suppression strategy is supposed to work. The most populated state is showing the rest how it should be done, etc. etc.

You have to wonder, is the suppression strategy for the virus, or the media? I get the feeling something is NQR with the figures coming out of NSW. I don't think we are getting the full story.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

You mean JobKeeper right?

Do I? Not being a Centrelink client I was just guessing

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Do I? Not being a Centrelink client I was just guessing

They'd already be on job seeker - dunno how many drug dealers would take eftpos

[Captain Stubing]

Originally Posted by Romulus

There's a clinical definition for that. Stockholm Syndrome.

I know it's completely off-topic, but...

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

They'd already be on job seeker - dunno how many drug dealers would take eftpos

I've heard some take Bitcoin....

[gooseneck]

nearly getting to 1 million deaths worldwide. 831,827 according to google.

To put this into perspective:

according to this pretty pdf: https://www.un.org/en/development/de...ataBooklet.pdf

There were 58,394,000 deaths in 2019. Obviously since Covid-19 wasn't considered around in 2019 that should give you an idea how bad so-far this thing is.

167 deaths in Australia in 2019.

I wonder what the entire world deaths + covid-19 deaths have been so far for this year. I mean we are almost 9 months into 2020.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

A couple of weeks back, ScoMo pulled out the trumpet and gave it a blow saying NSW is the perfect example of how a suppression strategy is supposed to work. The most populated state is showing the rest how it should be done, etc. etc.

You have to wonder, is the suppression strategy for the virus, or the media? I get the feeling something is NQR with the figures coming out of NSW. I don't think we are getting the full story.

Plenty of suppressed info here in Aust., including the PM's past.........

[Franco Cozzo]

Big protests in Germany against lockdown:

https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/...094131714?s=19

[Fed]

Someone should build a better mask, small, medium and large that fits and works properly.

Guaranteed sales for the next 5-10 Years or more.

[russellw]

99 new cases for Australia and 17 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.349% while active drop to 4,091. NSW recorded 14 cases, Queensland recorded 4 cases with the balance in Victoria which was back down in double digits for the first time since July 5th. The Victorian weekly total of 941 cases is 41% lower than last week although the 115 deaths is 9 more than last week.

13 new cases and 1 death for NZ so CMR is 1.332% and active cases rise to 137.

The UK had 1,108 new cases and as we know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines we are going to ignore those figures.

Just under 50k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,105 deaths sees CMR drop to 3.049% and active cases remain at 41.6% with the raw numbers still rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 25M with the last 1M taking only four days;
The USA completes 81M, India 40M, Russia 36M and Switzerland 1M tests;
Asia recorded a new high for daily cases with 103,635;

Honduras (1,141), Costa Rica (1,214), Ukraine (2,481), Indonesia (3,308) and India (78,472) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[cheap]

Comorbidities

CDC has released this latest data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.

For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities...

To date, less that 10,000 USA people have died exclusively of C19.

I wonder what the numbers mught be for Australia?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by cheap

Comorbidities

CDC has released this latest data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.

For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities...

To date, less that 10,000 USA people have died exclusively of C19.

I wonder what the numbers mught be for Australia?

Things like this and the tragic death of the young boy due to the storm in Melbourne the other night made me ponder some hard, logical numbers. Covid has hit those in their twilight so much harder than other tragic death causes such as the road toll.

****warning, this is purely a numbers thing - definitely not trying to say any life if more important than another!

I was interested in the "years lost" effect in Australia. Of the age group data I found (was @540 deaths) i applied some rudimentary (not from data, just an educated guess) "years of life left" to each break. (<10 80, 10 to 20 70, then 60,50,40,30,20,12,6 and finally 3 for the 90-100 age group.)

This gave 4081 years lost.

the median age for Australia is 37, (50 years left in that bracket), so I divide 4081 years by 50 years.

so by the years lost, 81 "median age" lives lost.

[knight rider]

Originally Posted by russellw

A while back we looked at some modelling predictions about case numbers and likely deaths in Australia and the USA.

Starting with the USA and the model for case numbers, it is tracking pretty much in line with the higher of the two possible models so on target for 11M cases by the end of October.

image

Thankfully, the mortality model is tracking with the lower of the two potential outcomes but that's still going to be ~220k deaths by the end of October.

image

It's a different story in Australia where the case numbers are currently trending above even the upper prediction but I'd expect that to start heading back down toward the lower of those lines in the next few weeks.

image

I'm not so confident that the mortality trend will get back down to the lower line or even the upper line given we are still recording high daily numbers however, with the smaller case numbers this week it might.

image

If they where dyno printouts that would be impressive


Sorry something worthwhile to add- but hey that never stopped anyone before

[russellw]

Like India, Russia presents an interesting case study if the reported numbers are accurate.

They have tested ~30% of the adult population (a bit less than us) which is well ahead of the 4% in India but their CMR is fairly similar to that of India at 1.728% and better than our 2.349%. Where they differ alarmingly, to the point where you'd have to question the data, is in cases and deaths per 100k of population.

Russia has 842 cases / 100k adults where India has 351 / 100k and Australia has 141 / 100k. You'd expect Russia to be higher than India given the higher test percentages so the more relevant data is that for deaths per 100k adults as that shouldn't be impacted by testing volumes. Here we see that Australia is at 3.33, India 6.32 and Russia 14.55.

Even when we count them based on total population, Australia is 2.28, India 4.54 and Russia 11.59 per 100k. To put that in perspective against other countries; Argentina is 17.98, Canada 24.13, Iran 25.29, Bangladesh 25.34, Ireland 35.98, Colombia 36.29, Ecuador 36.86, France 46.87, Mexico 48.54, USA 56.10, Brazil 56.25, Sweden 57.64, Chile 58.23, Italy 58.66, UK 61.11, Spain 62.05, Belgium 85.28 and Peru 85.76.

At the other end of the scale Singapore is 0.46, New Zealand 0.56, Japan 0.97, Hong Kong 1.12, Lebanon 2.17, Greece 2.48, Indonesia 2.62 and Palestine 2.84.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by cheap

Comorbidities

CDC has released this latest data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.

For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities...

To date, less that 10,000 USA people have died exclusively of C19.

I wonder what the numbers mught be for Australia?

What we need to see now is the corrected data that's been published over the last 4-5 months, this time reflecting the number of those who died of CV-19, and those who died with CV-19.

Code away.........

[prydey]

Originally Posted by cheap

Comorbidities

CDC has released this latest data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities


Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.

For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities...

To date, less that 10,000 USA people have died exclusively of C19.

I wonder what the numbers mught be for Australia?

personally, i fail to see why this matters so much to some. many many people have 'issues' with their health. some of these are probably undiagnosed and only discovered once the patient is hospitalised with covid.

both my daughters are type1 diabetic. my wife is coeliac. these are autoimmune diseases. beside this condition they are all healthy people although in a more vulnerable category. even the 'flu will likely see them hospitalised hence a jab every year, no real choice.

some people seem to infer that those with other 'conditions' affecting their health are living with one foot in the grave already and covid just 'finished them off' so to speak. this is simply not true.

This is something that everyone should take responsibility for, regardless of whether it could affect you or not. Thats called being a decent human being.

If your neighbours house was on fire, would you help put it out, or only if it looked like it might affect your property?

[ute83]

Cmon prydey even you would have to agree that this covid crap has been one big con and a huge scare like many have been saying all along. And the COST.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by prydey

personally, i fail to see why this matters so much to some. many many people have 'issues' with their health. some of these are probably undiagnosed and only discovered once the patient is hospitalised with covid.

You beat me to it. Its good data, but people are bound to misuse or misinterpret it.

Take just diabetes alone. 5% of Australians have it. That's roughly 1.2m Most can manage it well and live a relatively normal life? Add CV what is the impact?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by ute83

Cmon prydey even you would have to agree that this covid crap has been one big con and a huge scare like many have been saying all along. And the COST.

I totally agree.

For the first time in history every Government on Earth got together with every Doctor and every business leader in the world to start a practical joke.

Now they're all sitting about chuckling at the millions that are out of work, all the grounded planes and all the involved countries budgets shot to pieces.

Gimmie a break!

[prydey]

Originally Posted by ute83

Cmon prydey even you would have to agree that this covid crap has been one big con and a huge scare like many have been saying all along. And the COST.

in what way is it a con? it is a real virus, with real people dying from it. are governments over reacting? well, its easy to criticise and point fingers from the cheap seats. i wouldn't want to be the one making the decisions in many instances.

lift your eyes beyond australias borders.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

I totally agree.

For the first time in history every Government on Earth got together with every Doctor and every business leader in the world to start a practical joke.

Now they're all sitting about chuckling at the millions that are out of work, all the grounded planes and all the involved countries budgets shot to pieces.

Gimmie a break!

Yeh man, didn't you know...

China created a fake virus, so that Bill Gates, Fauci, big western pharmas, and hospitals can get rich, in the meantime also working with western governments to apply restrictions to deliberately ruin their economy, all so they can rule the world. Have I missed anything?

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Yeh man, didn't you know...

China created a fake virus, so that Bill Gates, Fauci, big western pharmas, and hospitals can get rich, in the meantime also working with western governments to apply restrictions to deliberately ruin their economy, all so they can rule the world. Have I missed anything?

Can you somehow work into your sentence the words, nazis, socialism and communism. It doesn't have to make any sense but I think it will round off the ridiculous theories nicely. Thanks.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

If your neighbours house was on fire, would you help put it out

Depends which neighbors