Muscle Car Prices Rising Again - Stupidity - Page 2

BENT_8 · 25-11-2009, 11:15 AM

I just took a look back to when i signed up on this forum, early 06.
One of the first debates i got involved with was about GT pricing and the unrealistic prices.
My views then were that the bubble would burst as the economy slowed, cars fetching 5-600k then would drop to a more realistic 2-400k.
I was shot down by the usual suspects who had so many GT owning friends and were in the know of all things GT...
Prices were gonna hit 1mil, doubling the then prices, but no fear as these high end cars were owned by enthusiasts who were cashed up and didnt need to sell.
Well sorry to say guys but my prediction was right then, GT's have fallen, and i doubt the fall has ended yet.

I guess i still have NFI...

xy500 · 25-11-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I just took a look back to when i signed up on this forum, early 06.
One of the first debates i got involved with was about GT pricing and the unrealistic prices.
My views then were that the bubble would burst as the economy slowed, cars fetching 5-600k then would drop to a more realistic 2-400k.
I was shot down by the usual suspects who had so many GT owning friends and were in the know of all things GT...
Prices were gonna hit 1mil, doubling the then prices, but no fear as these high end cars were owned by enthusiasts who were cashed up and didnt need to sell.
Well sorry to say guys but my prediction was right then, GT's have fallen, and i doubt the fall has ended yet.

I guess i still have NFI...

geez anyone could have worked that out, no one was arguing the fact that their prices would drop with recession rubbish, but you can count on the fact the prices will come up again

**Polyal** · 25-11-2009, 11:36 AM

I think a more interesting point will be longer term.

Will the future generations hold the GT badge so dear to their hearts and wallets? In other words, once the current owners fall off will future Ford fans be willing to pay that much coin?

Youd be wrapped if you where an owner that sold during the last boom IMO, it will creep back but that high again? hmm

xy500 · 25-11-2009, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I think a more interesting point will be longer term.

Will the future generations hold the GT badge so dear to their hearts and wallets? In other words, once the current owners fall off will future Ford fans be willing to pay that much coin?

You be wrapped if you where an owner that sold during the last boom IMO, it will creep back but that high again? hmm

if house prices are any indicator, i'd say for sure!
its only a matter of time

**Polyal** · 25-11-2009, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xy500

if house prices are any indicator, i'd say for sure!
its only a matter of time

I dont think you can compare house prices to investment car prices. As a market indicator to strength maybe but thats about it.

Emotion, build number, paint combo etc are all factors with cars; houses have a far greater reach with potential buyers.

GT0132 · 25-11-2009, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xy500

geez anyone could have worked that out, no one was arguing the fact that their prices would drop with recession rubbish, but you can count on the fact the prices will come up again

It is very likely they will go up in the short to medium term to pre GFC levels...However it will be interesting to see how values change once the current generation of baby boomers/ older Gen X's leave the planet as from all reports I hear from the ranks of car fanatic teenagers these days, (my 16 yo son included) turbo Jap cars are the go, nothing else will do and anything with a Ford or Holden badge is a grandpa mobile and totally uncool to be seen in, let alone own.

auxr · 25-11-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4Vman

My friends who have musclecar collections are 35-45 yo successful small business owners with a passion for musclecars and excess disposable income.. They own their collections outright.
I have 4 friends with P3's who fit this description. the GFC didnt effect them at all, none of them are interested in selling so relative market values mean nothing to them.

Totally agree, these are the people that have the spare cash to indulge their passion and are the right type of enthusiast that will specifically look after these rare vehicles for the future, I would assume that profit would not be a considering factor - having the car and enjoying it would be the prime consideration.

Trek · 25-11-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GT0132

It is very likely they will go up in the short to medium term to pre GFC levels...However it will be interesting to see how values change once the current generation of baby boomers/ older Gen X's leave the planet as from all reports I hear from the ranks of car fanatic teenagers these days, (my 16 yo son included) turbo Jap cars are the go, nothing else will do and anything with a Ford or Holden badge is a grandpa mobile and totally uncool to be seen in, let alone own.

There's still bound to be a minority that share a passion for classics, so prices and level of interest would be unlikely to fall as such. The quantity of people that share the interest as such would be unknown, however, I'd think it'd be shrinking, gradually. That and too many teens are easily manipulated by the media, hence they don't really make their own decisions. I'd be sure they'd choose a classic over rice if they had a clear mind, with no air in their heads

(nothing directed at your son there, but moreso people I've met)

Highway · 25-11-2009, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GT0132

It is very likely they will go up in the short to medium term to pre GFC levels...However it will be interesting to see how values change once the current generation of baby boomers/ older Gen X's leave the planet as from all reports I hear from the ranks of car fanatic teenagers these days, (my 16 yo son included) turbo Jap cars are the go, nothing else will do and anything with a Ford or Holden badge is a grandpa mobile and totally uncool to be seen in, let alone own.

Can see a lot of younger people going into the (ol skool) cars as they call them. I have shown a few of the young guys I have at work Photo's of my car and all they can say is "dood that thing is fully sick, I want the 1st ride" (I think thats a good thing so I understand)..

Yellow Fire · 25-11-2009, 12:07 PM

I'm not sure why people care so much about what other people do with their money. Buying cars (especially Falcons) isn't a logical decision. People buy them because they love them. Do you think buying a brand new GT is a logical decision with the way they depreciate? Of course not. People buy them because they love them. Its not about money.

The only difference between buying a new GT or an old GT is that they stopped making old ones a long long time ago. That means you can't just order one from Ford. That also means that to get one you have to buy one from someone who already has one & may take a lot of convincing ($$$).

Riksta · 25-11-2009, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

edit: not a ford but still cheap as, http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1979-...item4cec2c0125

Brand is now dead, one if its more famous cars for $10kUS + freight.

You HAD to use that particular one as an example didn't you, its exactly what I want at the moment!!! Damn I wish I had some spare cash!!! I really didn't want to see that.

MO · 25-11-2009, 12:42 PM

+1 on the trans am however I think a very important point is being missed here and that is that sometime down the track you won't be able to drive them. This is based on the way this anti pollution stuff is going and the safety side airbags etc,you just wont be able to get the fuel to run them. So all they be is nice cars sitting in the shed.
Unless of course you are going to do an engine swap or something so as to be able to drive them. Just a thought what do you guys think.

XWGT · 25-11-2009, 12:43 PM

There is one other factor that I didnt mention which I think also has a serious impact on the top end of the market.

A lot of buying was fuelled by people settling up their own personal superannuation funds and investing their own cash in classic cars. Effectively they spent their superannuation on muscle cars. Which is great, however the problem is when you actually need those funds (when you retire etc) you actually need to liquidate the assets to generate cash. In addition to that when market prices fall in creates a whole other world of pain. That pain hasnt been realised yet (and to be fair, may never be if they can hold the asset long enough for prices to recover) So will be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Also I think you get the "passing of the baton" effect. Like me, many people have owned them. I loved them, but in outright evaluations, you can get a whole lot more fun / performance / nostaliga for your money in other marques for a whole lot less, or if you can live with the depreciation, new simply eclipses everything in the performance stakes. Upshot is I would never invest my $ in a GT again at those prices. So unless there is a younger generation coming through (read sub 35) who have the passion and the cash, I'm not sure its all sustainable.

/sermon mode off

XWildGT · 25-11-2009, 12:52 PM

People loose money on cars every day you buy a new car now off the show room floor and tell me what it is worth in 10+ yrs you by a old muscle car now yeah it might go up and down but it will do better then your off the show room new ordinary car

HEMI POWER · 25-11-2009, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I think a more interesting point will be longer term.

Will the future generations hold the GT badge so dear to their hearts and wallets? In other words, once the current owners fall off will future Ford fans be willing to pay that much coin?

Youd be wrapped if you where an owner that sold during the last boom IMO, it will creep back but that high again? hmm

You will find that the new generation GT's has somehow contributed to the understanding of the GT nameplate to the younger generation.Now wether in years to come these younger guys find the urge to own a older classic due to today's hype is too hard too predict.But i have seen many younger guys and girls quite interested in the whole GT history since FPV have bought the GT name back so who knows.
I have been around GT's and owned them for around 20 years and still find it hard not to own both old and new.

:

flappist · 25-11-2009, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

Spending $400k on an XY GT is probably better economical sense than say spending the same on a Aston Martin DB9

That really depends of what you want to do.

If you want to drive and enjoy a supercar then buy the DB9.

If you want to look at and very occasionally drive (but not too far as you will get too many liles on it and not on the road in case some one hits it and not on a track as it will be uninsured and not when it it reaing as it will get wet and not early morning or evening as it will get bugs on it and not anywhere away from the freeway as it might get stone chips) it the buy a collectable.

There are many people in retirement villages with stories of their art or antique or stamp or car or whatever collections that they sold for a fortune and now have huge amounts of money that they can't do anything with.

There are also many people in the same situation with bugger all money but memories and stories of the amazing fun crazy adventurous and costly things they did during their life.

Which one do you want to be?

RedHotGT · 25-11-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flappist

That really depends of what you want to do.

If you want to drive and enjoy a supercar then buy the DB9.

If you want to look at and very occasionally drive (but not too far as you will get too many liles on it and not on the road in case some one hits it and not on a track as it will be uninsured and not when it it reaing as it will get wet and not early morning or evening as it will get bugs on it and not anywhere away from the freeway as it might get stone chips) it the buy a collectable.

There are many people in retirement villages with stories of their art or antique or stamp or car or whatever collections that they sold for a fortune and now have huge amounts of money that they can't do anything with.

There are also many people in the same situation with bugger all money but memories and stories of the amazing fun crazy adventurous and costly things they did during their life.

Which one do you want to be?

You know what Flappist.... I usually like arguing with your opinions... But I agree with you 100% on the above....

I'm a Gen Y - and I will be building a muscle car collection for my 3 sons and I to enjoy in the future....
Some of them will be just basic classics and some will be mighty muscle cars... And honestly the only time I will care about the $$$ is when I buy them... because once I buy them - I WILL NOT BE SELLING THEM....

and I will always hold the "GT" significant in my heart, as I would hope anyone that is remotely interested in cars.....

So, to respond to the quote above... I KNOW which one I WILL be

GT0132 · 25-11-2009, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loftie

You know what Flappist.... I usually like arguing with your opinions... But I agree with you 100% on the above....

I'm a Gen Y - and I will be building a muscle car collection for my 3 sons and I to enjoy in the future....
Some of them will be just basic classics and some will be mighty muscle cars... And honestly the only time I will care about the $$$ is when I buy them... because once I buy them - I WILL NOT BE SELLING THEM....

and I will always hold the "GT" significant in my heart, as I would hope anyone that is remotely interested in cars.....

So, to respond to the quote above... I KNOW which one I WILL be

Mate , looking at your signature you seem to be off to a flying start....Well done and good luck

RedHotGT · 25-11-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GT0132

Mate , looking at your signature you seem to be off to a flying start....Well done and good luck

Flying Start - maybe not....
I doubt whether the daily drivers will ever turn out to be classics (though in retrospect i'm sure that was the same thought of most in the 70s)

I've already got my collection penned out.... I've just gotta find the cars.... and the cash....
Basically I need 4 x cars.... One for each son, and my own...

Car#1 - Calypso XA GT 4-door (be it mock or real) just like the Phase IV
Car#2 - ZH Fairlane 351 (must have vinyl roof for that retro look) Colour is not important at this stage
Car#3 - Landau Coupe (darker original colour preferred)
Car#4 - 1968 Dodge Charger (Hemi looker, with the rear hoop/stripe and pref 440ci... though a 318ci will do)

That would do me I reckons.... I reckon I could get that all together for less than $100,000 (current financial climate)....

Gives a broad range of classics.... Granpda cruiser, Go fast GT, Tough Coupe, and American Muscle (that ISN'T a MUSTANG or a 57CHEV)....

GT0132 · 25-11-2009, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loftie

Flying Start - maybe not.... )....

Sorry I misread it , you dont actually own the XY GT..

The ZH Fairlane brings back some memories...My Dad had a ZH Marquis in that light green/blue colour they came out in with cream vinyl roof.

outback_ute · 25-11-2009, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trippytaka

OK, so I am going to get smashed here by some... but I honestly don't believe that any Aussie Muscle Car is worth a million bucks. We saw what has happened to the market since the GFC - XY GT Phase IIIs aren't even clearing for 400k.

The HO is on the Shannons site as withdrawn from the auction so an opportunity to gauge prices was missed. Would have been interesting as the description made it sound like an excellent example.

Looking at the same auction the HK 307 is roughly the equivalent of an XW/XY V8 Fairmont and I'd say an expected price. The Torana I'd say was good buying if you were after one, the Galaxie was a case of top price for top car.

Look at the Jag Mk2 - back in 1990 that would have been $50k - then the crash came, then they recovered, then prices decline as the car ages and passes it's 'peak' of around 40yo - exactly where the XW/XY is now.

mik · 25-11-2009, 07:12 PM

when it all comes back to it, if a shaker model makes you happy and you can afFORD the beast

, it does`nt matter what you paid for it, the smile on your face every time you look at it, drive , etc, etc, is all that matters.

BPXR6T · 25-11-2009, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mik

when it all comes back to it, if a shaker model makes you happy and you can afFORD the beast

, it does`nt matter what you paid for it, the smile on your face every time you look at it, drive , etc, etc, is all that matters.

You would have to really reeeally like Fords to pay what some have paid for a though. These machines belong on the road in the hands of enthusiasts not parked in garage controlled by speculators.

flappist · 25-11-2009, 08:27 PM

I have just thought of a cunning plan, Baldrick.

A group of money enthusiasts decide to make a quid from the great unwashed.

They chose something iconic that is a bit thin on the ground, say LJ GTR XU1, the car that beat that Ford whats its name thingo, you know the red one.

They acquire a few of them for the going price of say $100,000 or so.
As these cars are quite rare for a mere $3,000,000 they can grab 30 which would be a significant percentage of those made.

Over a period of a couple of years they auction them off and make sure that one of the "group" wins unless the price is just too silly.
e.g. If the price is $200k they buy it themselves if it goes to 400k++ they let it go. High prices are publicised, low prices are kept secret.
Of course none of the "group" have any direct ties or at least none that can be proven.

Mug speculators will always appear and grab one of these iconic LJs as they are a great investment, they seem to be worth more than anything else and are just going up an up.

Bloody good investment these high profile LJs. Every second copy of "car scammer weekly", "Wotor" and Mheels" runs an "unpaid" story about them.

Gradually the price of LJs skyrockets to between 5 and 10 times what they were worth a few years before even though everything else hasn't.

The "group" decide to keep one or two of the best specimens and dump the remainder making themselves several million dollars untaxed profit before the bum falls out of the economy (as it does every 10 years) and the market for and value of LJs just evaporates, well except for in the mind of the new owners and the true believers.

I wonder if anyone has thought of this idea before.....

Do you think it would work?

Can people be so blinded by legend and spin that they would fall for it?

Nah..... They are only Holdens, no one is that silly......

mr smith · 25-11-2009, 08:30 PM

The only thing the auction results from shannons shows is high priced OZ muscle is over.
All the big priced cars passed in or withdrawn.

**Polyal** · 25-11-2009, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riksta

You HAD to use that particular one as an example didn't you, its exactly what I want at the moment!!! Damn I wish I had some spare cash!!! I really didn't want to see that.

Well then try this one for size.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eB...K%3AMEWAX%3AIT

A SVT Cobra R replica track car in the making for $8k + freight. Nearly makes you want to cry.

MO · 25-11-2009, 10:23 PM

@polyal,you can go off ppl you know,fancy showing these sorts of cars,oh well time for a lotto ticket...sigh.

trippytaka · 25-11-2009, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

Spending $400k on an XY GT is probably better economical sense than say spending the same on a Aston Martin DB9

True that! I agree with that one 100%. It's just a shame you have to pay half a mill to get a phase 3 :(

Morexbs · 25-11-2009, 11:31 PM

I think there were a lot of people who were quite happy to pay big money for cars just so they could tell people how much they had spent.There were plenty of blokes getting around telling anyone who would listen that they had just paid a new world record for whatever it was that they had just bought.
I recall a comment made by someone from one of the upmarket auction houses who were selling a Phase 3.He said that overseas when someone buys a million dollar classic car they usually prefer to be anonymous and discreet and he couldn't understand why the people buying Australian muscle cars were so happy to tell people what they had spent.

BENT_8 · 26-11-2009, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xy500

geez anyone could have worked that out, no one was arguing the fact that their prices would drop with recession rubbish, but you can count on the fact the prices will come up again

Lol..you sound just like the people i was referring to.

There is a very well known, supposedly 'in the know' member of this forum who said prices for HO's would never drop, but 'level out' before climbing again.
He was wrong, clearly, what makes you think your crystal ball works any better.
Oh and BTW, this same member claims our economy is on the comeback too, even though the projected growth for the September qtr was estimated at 1% whereas actual figures show a drop of 2.9%. Thats a 3.9% turn around

Fact is proof is in the pudding, and the pudding has flopped.

As for the current collectors handing down to off spring. Sounds good now, but who knows what their kids gonna want when their 30-40.
We have a family member who recently inherited a number of cattle/sheep stations from his father. Now this bloke was born and raised on the land, knows little else and so it seemed like the perfect plan.
Move forward 3 years and he's ready to sell as he cant be bothered anymore.
If you asked his father 5yrs ago wether the stations would still be in his sons hands now the answer would most certainly be yes.
Unfortunately things change and not everyone shares the same passions regardless of the upbringing and influences.