Vfacts January 2019

[MAGPIE]

Originally Posted by HSVKILLA

A bit of nz news for january

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...nuary-2019.htm

I read that yesterday and wondered when was the last time Triton out sold the Hilux

[au2000]

Numbers are not surprising really, ford's current strategy is based on 2 cars, ranger and mustang and in all honesty more so ranger.
At work we have 7 mustangs in the carpark, only one of them is the new model, like any "niche" vehicle, it's sales will ebb n flow, but I doubt there will be massive months for it again.
I could be wrong but I doubt many who buy one aspire to move it on in a few years for a newer one, they either modify the one they have or move onto something else,
Colorado sales will increase over te next 6 months as holden has a contract with vic pol to supply them as the new divvy van to replace the commodore ute,
As has been mentioned, this years tax changes on duel cab utes I think will hit the duel cab market very hard and that's what's really gonna hurt the ranger motor company.

[Wretched]

Let's see what Feb figures bring with a full month's worth of sales data.

Ford have the new Focus on board now and hopefully will bring in some much needed oomph in the sales figures.

[anobserver]

Fords increasing reliance on high margin sellers should be cause for concern. Manufacturers with a more balanced mix of offerings will fare better through the business cycle.

This is partially why i think its a mistake that Ford usa is dumping most of its sedan range and more affordable cars. Without that product, buyers will have no choice but to shop elsewhere, especially when that is all they can afford and they insist on buying new.

Companies like mazda and Toyota, with well selling cars, will be better placed. Its a strategic view. When buyers cant afford a mustang or ranger, what other ford product could they opt for?

[Windsor220]

New Focus and Endura along with Focus Active, Fiesta ST and Mondeo later on. At least Ford has some new content to work with

[csv8]

Ford need a $19,990 Focus to lure people into the showroom. New Focus is $27k drive away. Nothing cheaper. And I am not rubbishing Ford, just stating a fact.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by csv8

Ford need a $19,990 Focus to lure people into the showroom. New Focus is $27k drive away. Nothing cheaper. And I am not rubbishing Ford, just stating a fact.

That won’t happen, they can’t land it for that much, nor can VW.

[PG2]

What I find interesting is that while Ford are relying on dual cab sales two manufacturers (Hyundai - 4th, Kia - 5th) are beating Ford and don't have a dual cab in their range.

Actually, three of the manufacturers in the top 10 (Hyundai, Kia and Honda) don't have a dual cab in their range.

With dual cabs taking up such a high percentage of sales how do these manufactures stay in the top 10. May be Ford should be looking at what there are doing to create sales in other areas apart from 4x4 dual cabs.

[Vesper Martini]

seems Ford don't want to be competing for the lowest price hatch, they have tried that and failed.

so they have set out a difference
to compare the base i30 $19,990 has a 2L 120kw engine promising 7.3L/100
same engine in the active which is price comparable with the trend
the focus trend has 1.5L ecoboost with 134kw promising 6.4L/100 (has a lot more torque too.

would you buy an i30 active over the Trend

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by PG2

What I find interesting is that while Ford are relying on dual cab sales two manufacturers (Hyundai - 4th, Kia - 5th) are beating Ford and don't have a dual cab in their range.

Actually, three of the manufacturers in the top 10 (Hyundai, Kia and Honda) don't have a dual cab in their range.

With dual cabs taking up such a high percentage of sales how do these manufactures stay in the top 10. May be Ford should be looking at what there are doing to create sales in other areas apart from 4x4 dual cabs.

Excellent points.
I guess the simple answer is you can have close to top or top seller in two segments (like Ford) or like Hyundai for example you have reasonably good sales in a large range spanning city, small, med sedans/hatches, 3 suv's, some ev's/hybrids, a people mover and light commercial van and a truck. As they do average or higher in each of these the total number looks very good...just imagine if Hyundai made a good ute or Prado/Landcruiser competitor?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by PG2

What I find interesting is that while Ford are relying on dual cab sales two manufacturers (Hyundai - 4th, Kia - 5th) are beating Ford and don't have a dual cab in their range.

Actually, three of the manufacturers in the top 10 (Hyundai, Kia and Honda) don't have a dual cab in their range.

With dual cabs taking up such a high percentage of sales how do these manufactures stay in the top 10. May be Ford should be looking at what there are doing to create sales in other areas apart from 4x4 dual cabs.

Im surprised no ones chimed in and explained that Ford arent interested in selling low profit margin vehicles to the common peasant, they'd rather sell Wildtracks and Mustangs at massive markups even if it equates to sliding down the ladder.
Thats the usual spin a suggestion like your's would provoke.

Mind you, they can only sell those high end products which they reap big rewards from if the punters are prepared to pay the premium.
The problem is, will/can the punters continue to pay those overs or has the downturn in the economy as evident in decline in housing sales/values and new car sales market, brought a level of reality to the equation where the punters will start looking for the cheaper options.

[jpd80]

Last time I looked Toyota has lots and lots of high margin vehicles,
so if a downturn comes, they are going to hurt too....

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Last time I looked Toyota has lots and lots of high margin vehicles,
so if a downturn comes, they are going to hurt too....

True, if they lost 1/4 of their total sales, they'd only be selling 3 to 1...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

True, if they lost 1/4 of their total sales, they'd only be selling 3 to 1...

but still a significant chunk of profit., I believe more vehicles across the market actually leads to
even more exposure in a down turn market...depending on product of course..

But let's look at January sales, if there was a down turn in Ute sales wouldn't Hilux sales drop too?
I think January's low sales for Ford has more to do with less bargain basement stuff to sell..

if there was a slowdown across the market, why are Toyota's January sales up 17% compared to last year?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

But let's look at January sales, if there was a down turn in Ute sales wouldn't Hilux sales drop too?

There was, light commercial sales dropped by 1000 units in January compared to the same time last year, but Hilux grew by 80 anyway..

[jpd80]

Perhaps a little perspective on January sales.

Ute 4X4 sales:
Model...................Jan 19........Jan 18........Jan 18
Hilux 4x4..............2,993..........2,880..........1,9 64
Ranger 4x4...........2,243..........2,892..........2,221


Ute 4X2 sales:
Model...................Jan 19........Jan 18........Jan 17
Hilux 4x2..............958............988............738
Ranger 4x2...........321............368............401

This is not an excuse for Ranger, just simply showing what happens.
January 18 was exceptionally good for Ranger 4x4 compared to 2017 and 2019
while Hilux 4x4 had a similar jump as Ranger but managed to hold onto it in 2019.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Perhaps a little perspective on January sales.

Ute 4X4 sales:
Model...................Jan 19........Jan 18........Jan 17
Hilux 4x4..............2,993..........2,880..........1,9 64
Ranger 4x4...........2,243..........2,892..........2,221


Ute 4X2 sales:
Model...................Jan 19........Jan 18........Jan 17
Hilux 4x2..............958............988............738
Ranger 4x2...........321............368............401

This is not an excuse for Ranger, just simply showing what happens.
January 18 was exceptionally good for Ranger 4x4 compared to 2017 and 2019
while Hilux 4x4 had a similar jump as Ranger but managed to hold onto it in 2019.

I dont think ranger had an exceptional Jan 18, it grew by less than Hilux in a segment which was on the march over the last 18 months, this isnt an entrant thats come from nowhere its been biting at the heels and at times on top of Hilux throughout that period.
Look further back to January 16 and it sold 2418 to Hilux's 2341, if anything January 2017 was the anomoly.
The issue is its slump in 2019 which accounts for 80% of the light commercials downturn.
The fact Hilux bucked the trend says more about where the 2 are at especially with the negative press surrounding Hilux and its DPF issues, you'd think roles would be reversed but they arent.
Probably an inventory/stink bug problem..jimmy crack corn...

[Adamz Ghia]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I dont think ranger had an exceptional Jan 18, it grew by less than Hilux in a segment which was on the march over the last 18 months, this isnt an entrant thats come from nowhere its been biting at the heels and at times on top of Hilux throughout that period.
The issue is its slump in 2019 which accounts for 80% of the light commercials downturn.
The fact Hilux bucked the trend says more about where the 2 are at especially with the negative press surrounding Hilux and its DPF issues, you'd think roles would be reversed but they arent.
Probably an inventory/stink bug problem..

How much was to private buyers and how much to fleet? If you think selling 4000 cars mostly at fleet discount (Hilux) is better than selling 2500 (Ranger) at mostly retail then you’re either in denial or just arguing for the sake of it.

[kevino]

Talking about oh what a feeling Hilux.
Twice in the last week or so I have been following a late model Hilux doing some sort of burn off. The stench from the white smoke meant I had to turn the air con off put the windows down and break the speed limit to get past these pics quickly. Unbelievably bad stench.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

How much was to private buyers and how much to fleet? If you think selling 4000 cars mostly at fleet discount (Hilux) is better than selling 2500 (Ranger) at mostly retail then you’re either in denial or just arguing for the sake of it.

Actually, January is generally a slow month for fleet sales.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Or maybe Hilux discounts strike again, tons of dealers selling tons of $52,990 DAs ..oh what a feeling indeed..

Maybe the only stink bug here is you....

The persistent nastiness and goading in your posts is getting way past obvious...

#picantolyfe

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

That won’t happen, they can’t land it for that much, nor can VW.

The bottom line for small cars is now around 23 k. Yeah you might see some drive away deals below that but the RRP price has snuck up. Corolla, I30 and new Mazda 3 etc. There is next to no profit at 20k drive away, thats why Hyundai upped the price of the new I30 and stopped doing drive away deals under 20k. I have heard from a industry insider that those $19,990 drive away deals on the old I30's would struggle to make a profit if the dealer threw in a set of floor mats. That's how razor thin the margins were.

Ford no longer bothers doing this. If they can't make a reasonable profit on a car they won't bother selling it. That's why the new Fiesta will only come in as an ST. There is next to no profit in the other models.

Sourcing cars out of europe doesn't help, things might be a little better if they come out of South Korea or Japan.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I have heard from a industry insider that those $19,990 drive away deals on the old I30's would struggle to make a profit if the dealer threw in a set of floor mats. That's how razor thin the margins were.

My Local Hyundai Dealer (Smallish NSW country Dealer) Told me That His mate who Owns the Local BETTA Electrical Franchise makes as Much money on a $2,000 Fridge Than he does on a $20,000 Car..

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Im surprised no ones chimed in and explained that Ford arent interested in selling low profit margin vehicles to the common peasant, they'd rather sell Wildtracks and Mustangs at massive markups even if it equates to sliding down the ladder.
Thats the usual spin a suggestion like your's would provoke.

Mind you, they can only sell those high end products which they reap big rewards from if the punters are prepared to pay the premium.
The problem is, will/can the punters continue to pay those overs or has the downturn in the economy as evident in decline in housing sales/values and new car sales market, brought a level of reality to the equation where the punters will start looking for the cheaper options.

It's not a forum opinion it's Ford Australia's stated position otherwise why are they not selling Hilux matching rwd base model units or matching price wise any base model of any of it's competitors. As to the success of this decision, it's Dearborn that will ultimately decide.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

It's not a forum opinion it's Ford Australia's stated position otherwise why are they not selling Hilux matching rwd base model units or matching price wise any base model of any of it's competitors. As to the success of this decision, it's Dearborn that will ultimately decide.

Ford execs have mentioned it numerous times in interviews that that is their approach. Don't even know why it's being questioned.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

It's not a forum opinion it's Ford Australia's stated position otherwise why are they not selling Hilux matching rwd base model units or matching price wise any base model of any of it's competitors. As to the success of this decision, it's Dearborn that will ultimately decide.

I didnt actually claim it as a forum opinion, just that certain people will regurgitate it to justify why they stopped servicing a particular part of the market when actual sales figures would suggest the reason they dont/cant compete in those segmants is because people stopped buying them In worthwhile numbers.
If lending/spending tighten up as is being suggested it will be high end products which fall first as people will seek affordability.
Fords biggest draw cards until recently were a niche sportscar and a dual cab, people dont need a sportscar and cheaper dualcabs are a dime a dozen, hence the downturn.

My2c.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I didnt actually claim it as a forum opinion, just that certain people will regurgitate it to justify why they stopped servicing a particular part of the market when actual sales figures would suggest the reason they dont/cant compete in those segmants is because people stopped buying them In worthwhile numbers.
If lending/spending tighten up as is being suggested it will be high end products which fall first as people will seek affordability.
Fords biggest draw cards until recently were a niche sportscar and a dual cab, people dont need a sportscar and cheaper dualcabs are a dime a dozen, hence the downturn.

My2c.

I won't get into your fellow forum member issues...and your point about financing is very, very valid. I also think whenever a Federal election is coming it has historically always created a "holding pattern" in the economy. I think the high end Rangers especially are bought by small business owners and "us small business owners" are definitely in a cost watching environment which I think started six months ago.

I see it with my clients where suddenly they are asking for a price-list "on everything you supply us" which is code for "I'm comparing your prices to competitors, I'm too lazy to look up all the prices on your invoices and want it in a single spreadsheet by you". When your own suppliers are now making more frequent sales calls to see if we require any stock you know things have slowed considerably as these suppliers are dealing in products that are bought upto 6 months in advance.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by BP'93

I'm going to get hammered here but I also think Holden has it better in this position then Ford.

Colorado and Astra are proving to be a strong sellers for Holden, with Acadia actually starting to gain higher than expected interest.

Whereas Ford are solely relying on Ranger, with no other strong seller to back them up if Ranger begins to decline.

Id hate to know how many of those Colorados and Astras are still sitting in dealerships with DEMO written on them.



Holden did it last year too to try and fudge the numbers... If they didnt they potentially would fall off the 10 top list.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Smoke Pursuit

Id hate to know how many of those Colorados and Astras are still sitting in dealerships with DEMO written on them.



Holden did it last year too to try and fudge the numbers... If they didnt they potentially would fall off the 10 top list.

In fairness to Holden, I think they did a great job of sticking to their knitting
and worked through inventory so now hopefully, fresh stock will be arriving soon.

Several members here have indicated that I've been way to aggressive on these forums,
so I'm turning over a new leaf and to all those I've offended here, particularly Bent 8
my sincerest apologies.

Does anyone have figures on HSV Camaro sales?

[BP'93]

Originally Posted by jpd80

In fairness to Holden, I think they did a great job of sticking to their knitting
and worked through inventory so now hopefully, fresh stock will be arriving soon.

Several members here have indicated that I've been way to aggressive on these forums,
so I'm turning over a new leaf and to all those I've offended here, particularly Bent 8
my sincerest apologies.

Does anyone have figures on HSV Camaro sales?

All Holden models bar Equinox and ZB Commodore are MY19 stock now. Colorado is a primary focus for Holden in 2019, Astra sedan stock should be exhausted by April and excess stock of Equinox and Commodore has been cleared, making way for MY20 stock, due mid-year.

Holden is targeting 10,000 units for Acadia for the year but huge interest has hampered supply. The next shipment isn't available unit April, with some customers waiting until June 2019 for stock allocation.