Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

[FTe342]

Originally Posted by GhiaEB

As someone who is looking at getting my first house, I am very worried about it. I've factored in a 2% rate rise into my affordability but if it goes higher I could be in a spot of bother.

Add to it a loss in value (if the housing market drops) and I'll be in real trouble. I might just wait another 6months. I'll have a bigger deposit as a bonus.

Cheers

Good strategy. But you won't have to worry about rates going up. They are about to head south. When banks calculate your borrowing capacity they have a margin of about 1.5% factored in but you should work out whats comfortable for you.

[SEZ213]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Mate, I couldnt agree more. Times up for dodgy over paid tradies and business that have taken their customers for granted over the last decade. The good players will be fine and their customer support will now pay off (they may even make some gains, as the rouges go bust).

What dodgy trades are you talking about? More importantly what state?

Gross generalisations are generally what gets people into trouble...particularly when it comes to the suggestion that tradies are over paid...

As for a depression...it's probably well past due - I concur with the sentiment that it may lead people to understand that they don't 'need' all that crap, that the over-inflation that has occurred, particularly over the last decade or so, is a false economy...the money isn't real...

[GTP owner]

Originally Posted by FTe342

Good strategy. But you won't have to worry about rates going up. They are about to head south. When banks calculate your borrowing capacity they have a margin of about 1.5% factored in but you should work out whats comfortable for you.

Placing bets on which way the interest rates, local market, global market is just like any other form of betting. The experts have LESS than average (50/50) chance of predicting these things well. This strategy has very little to recommend it when you are looking to provide a margin of safety for yourself, your home, your family, and ensuring there is food on the table when things go bad.
As for the banks having their margin of safety - they are far more cautious now, but they all had to be bundled out in the sub-prime crisis. They don't care if you lose your house, they just want to make money out of you. One way to ensure you remain on top is to not give them that opportunity.

Just as a slight aside, given house prices are falling at the moment (2% over the last 12 months), I would be happy to wait longer until things are looking more rosy. We are looking to invest in our first investment property, and have a substantial deposit sitting in a cash account right now. Buit there is no way we are spending it. Better to earn interest and wait to see how far down the realestate market goes down.

[GT]

Originally Posted by Sezzy

What dodgy trades are you talking about? More importantly what state?

Gross generalisations are generally what gets people into trouble...particularly when it comes to the suggestion that tradies are over paid...

Deliberately baiting people is what gets people into trouble! Please read the new sticky thread in this Forum for a guide to acceptable posting. Zero tolerance from this day forward!

Gaela

[GTP owner]

Originally Posted by GT

Deliberately baiting people is what gets people into trouble! Please read the new sticky thread in this Forum for a guide to acceptable posting. Zero tolerance from this day forward!

Gaela

Ouch!

By the way - which sticky thread?

[GT]

Originally Posted by GTP owner

Ouch!

By the way - which sticky thread?

Russell has just removed it to add something to it but should be back up in a few minutes. I can hear him tapping away ........

GT

[GT]

Originally Posted by GT

Russell has just removed it to add something to it but should be back up in a few minutes. I can hear him tapping away ........

GT

The STICKY is now up for all to read and hopefully absorb.

http://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11339192

GT

[creative]

Now is a very good time to invest..but look for dual ocupancy properties. My boss has just purchased 3 houses, renovated them and is getting an average return of between 15 - 22%! National average is 4 - 6%. He intends to have approx 100 properties before the market turns.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by creative

Now is a very good time to invest..but look for dual ocupancy properties. My boss has just purchased 3 houses, renovated them and is getting an average return of between 15 - 22%! National average is 4 - 6%. He intends to have approx 100 properties before the market turns.

That is an outstanding return! A lot of these opportunities were around in the late 90's prior to the boom. Perhaps we will see similar opportunities again?

[Scott]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

That is an outstanding return! A lot of these opportunities were around in the late 90's prior to the boom. Perhaps we will see similar opportunities again?

Wouldn't that be nice!

House prices may go down, they may go sideways, they may even maintain their current value. But with all of that in mind, I can't see a compelling reason to rush to buy at present.

If you have the cash on hand to drop as a nice sized deposit, I'd be putting it in a term deposit and sleeping easy knowing I have plans a, b and c lined up if I need them.

[Bent8]

The recent news about the US defaulting on it's debt is a smoke screen, as long as people rely on the news to keep them informed, these guys can just keep scamming us with all sorts of "excuses".

The US Federal Reserve was setup in 1913 on "Jekyll Island" by a bunch of bankers who most of them, still to this day remain unnamed.

Their system works by printing money as IOU's to this privately owned Federal Reserve bank and the income taxes of American's pay the "INTEREST ONLY" on this printed money!

A few years back if you went to a bank and deposited say $100, the bank was allowed to lend out 10 times this amount as loans ($1000), also known as "Fractional-Reserve Banking". Today these same banks can lend out around 20 - 30 times the original amount.

So in other words, the mortgage you have on your house was paid for by money created out of thin air (printed on a computer screen as available funds )

It's designed to collapse but the banksters want it to happen when they have their "solution" ready for you, and that solution is a One World currency.

Seems far-fetched and apparently they're behind schedule because people are waking up to their lies...

My guess is that Australia is currently about 6-9mths behind the US in terms of fiscal health but the gap is closing every day.

There are many doco's on this subject...

Secret of Oz is excellent
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cq9yEVcGIU

Gerald Celente is a trends forecaster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRAvRtL0cz8

Be informed on what's really going on and you'll be fine.

[Elks]

Now I understand it all...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3...layer_embedded

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Elks

Now I understand it all...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3...layer_embedded

Haaaaa.... I watched that guy getting interviewed once and he was acting the part of a greedy bank manager. I had no idea who he was and thought it was a serious interview... lol

On an serious note..... Oh dear.....

[AMGC63]

One things for sure, if the media and people keep talking it up with doom and gloom and consumers start pulling in the purse strings as a result its sure to happen.
Consumer confidence dictates allot of this, a self forfilling prophesy i guess....

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Wayne351

One things for sure, if the media and people keep talking it up with doom and gloom and consumers start pulling in the purse strings as a result its sure to happen.
Consumer confidence dictates allot of this, a self forfilling prophesy i guess....

But the cause of this is easy credit IMO. If only easy credit wasn't available and real money from real purses was being spent then perhaps this would never have happened?

If we spend we are directly buggered, if we don't spend we are indirectly buggered.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

But the cause of this is easy credit IMO. If only easy credit wasn't available and real money from real purses was being spent then perhaps this would never have happened?

If we spend we are directly buggered, if we don't spend we are indirectly buggered.

If people change their regular sustainable spending habbits because of the henny penny banter were stuffed.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Wayne351

If people change their regular sustainable spending habbits because of the henny penny banter were stuffed.

I agree, however the problem is highlighted right there.

[robjh80]

Problem? ... what problem? .. No, can't see a problem here

http://www.debtclock.com.au/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

[Gobes32]

The debtclock for Australia shows the credit card amount owing going up, now correct me if I am wrong but wasn't it on the news not long ago how Australians are saving like never before, I don't get it.........

[burnz]

couple of things i don't understand!!
1/ didn't standards & poor like the other ratings companies, help cause all this in the first place by backing bad debt.
and said when inquired "it's just an opinion".
now they lower the US credit rating, obama should give'm the boot.
2/ why was their a dead line, why create a panic over a pseudo time limit?

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by robjh80

Problem? ... what problem? .. No, can't see a problem here

http://www.debtclock.com.au/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

How much is $14,300,000,000,000.00?

http://usdebt.kleptocracy.us/?p=1

[WMD351]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

The debtclock for Australia shows the credit card amount owing going up, now correct me if I am wrong but wasn't it on the news not long ago how Australians are saving like never before, I don't get it.........

I suspect that at the top end of town the 5% of people who own 95% of the money (figuratively speaking) may have gotten out of their risky investments and gone for the safety of cash, while at the other end of the scale the poor continue to get poorer.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

now correct me if I am wrong but wasn't it on the news not long ago how Australians are saving like never before, I don't get it.........

Saving money can mean spending less too.

[GTP owner]

Originally Posted by WMD351

I suspect that at the top end of town the 5% of people who own 95% of the money (figuratively speaking) may have gotten out of their risky investments and gone for the safety of cash, while at the other end of the scale the poor continue to get poorer.

If you are poor - you have nothing, right? So how can you get poorer? I think this is one of the stupidest thow-away lines there is.
The next one in this vein is that the gap between the righ and poor is growing. Once again, the poor can't get any poorer. Yes the righ are increasing their wealth, but you would too if you were in their shoes.

So we come back to how we as individuals can limit the effects of a recession. The answer is to live within your means. Just because you can buy now and pay later does not mean you have to!

[burnz]

Originally Posted by GTP owner

The answer is to live within your means. Just because you can buy now and pay later does not mean you have to!

wouldn't it be more prudent to buy australian instead of sending it over seas.
even if you go into debt the money stays here.

[gz1]

Originally Posted by mr smith

There is no GFC 2, GFC 1 hasnt finished yet. Artificial stimulus hasnt worked and has only driven most countries (and people) into more debt.

I'll go with this one as the most logical and backed up by empirical evidence.

[GTP owner]

Originally Posted by burnz

wouldn't it be more prudent to buy australian instead of sending it over seas.
even if you go into debt the money stays here.

Are you referring to the individual or the state? I agree that buying Australian is beneficial, but not putting yourself into too much debt to do it. Thats the way the banks make themselves fat off your hard work.
We can only be responsible for our own spending pattern. What governments do is driven by god-knows what!

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Haaaaa.... I watched that guy getting interviewed once and he was acting the part of a greedy bank manager. I had no idea who he was and thought it was a serious interview... lol

On an serious note..... Oh dear.....

John Clarke and Bryan Dawe. Brilliant Australian Satirists (Well ok. Clarke was born in NZ, but we claimed him!)

http://www.mrjohnclarke.com

[burnz]

Originally Posted by GTP owner

Are you referring to the individual or the state? I agree that buying Australian is beneficial, but not putting yourself into too much debt to do it. Thats the way the banks make themselves fat off your hard work.
We can only be responsible for our own spending pattern. What governments do is driven by god-knows what!

individual: as to your reference "buy now pay later" which is typically low end credit.

[Falc'man]

Originally Posted by Bent8

The recent news about the US defaulting on it's debt is a smoke screen, as long as people rely on the news to keep them informed, these guys can just keep scamming us with all sorts of "excuses".

The US Federal Reserve was setup in 1913 on "Jekyll Island" by a bunch of bankers who most of them, still to this day remain unnamed.

Their system works by printing money as IOU's to this privately owned Federal Reserve bank and the income taxes of American's pay the "INTEREST ONLY" on this printed money!

A few years back if you went to a bank and deposited say $100, the bank was allowed to lend out 10 times this amount as loans ($1000), also known as "Fractional-Reserve Banking". Today these same banks can lend out around 20 - 30 times the original amount.

So in other words, the mortgage you have on your house was paid for by money created out of thin air (printed on a computer screen as available funds )

It's designed to collapse but the banksters want it to happen when they have their "solution" ready for you, and that solution is a One World currency.

Seems far-fetched and apparently they're behind schedule because people are waking up to their lies...

My guess is that Australia is currently about 6-9mths behind the US in terms of fiscal health but the gap is closing every day.

There are many doco's on this subject...

Secret of Oz is excellent
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cq9yEVcGIU

Gerald Celente is a trends forecaster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRAvRtL0cz8

Be informed on what's really going on and you'll be fine.

Good post.

One thing that Gerald says is that politicians lie. I can't understand that. He also said the governments only supports and represent the very rich. Baaa.. it can't be true... Baaa.

George Carlin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0yhH...eature=related