Holden cuts off communication with Federal Government

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by fte50

here are 2 quick links to get you not questioning but understanding the viability of local investment.

http://www.fcai.com.au/library/FCAI_...SUBMISSION.pdf

http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/...CT%20SHEET.pdf

Both good links though no real hardcore numbers shown, especially per vehicle. The report from 2008 wasn't glowing and would be even worse now.
The first link justifies clearly my belief that car manufacturing here is too dependent upon government subsidies for a declining market.

It actually went on to state that while manufacturing was lessening, our R&D facilities that support overseas markets is the shining beacon for all three manufacturers. I have said all along if we can keep the engineering here then so be it. We have the brains behind the engineering but making cars themselves is where I see it needs to change.

The report indicates that all three needed (back in 2008) needed to open their markets to increase manufacturing due to the decline in local buyers and government purchasing of local cars.

[flooded one]

It seems to me after reading this that Holden are closing?? Not good news for the workers employed there.

[fte50]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Both good links though no real hardcore numbers shown, especially per vehicle. .

Holden makes a huge contribution to our economy through its engine export enterprise, more so than its cars.
On average something to the tune of 1billion p/a, some yrs less others more, amongst there best year in the last decade was 1.9billion.

In short Holden's success cant be measured on local vehicle sales alone as a big core of their business is engine export, many folks don't realise this fact though. Its for this reason you cant compare holden & ford as manufactures when considering ford has no export program and thus puts nothing back into the economy through export gain.

However the money both these companies put back through company taxes, payroll taxes, super contributions etc etc more than out way the assistance received.

[P6LTD351]

Detroit has spoken.

[mr smith]

The Button plan worked well................

[stevz]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

I've already predicted a closure announcement within 3-4 weeks.

I wish Sportsbet were providing odds; could clean up nicely.

It sounds to me as if you are almost excited about it.

Are you going to be putting on a few slabs at your place to celebrate?

Shame on you.

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

I know it's going back many, many years but this probably wouldn't be happening had GM not bought Holden those long decades ago.

Would have stayed an Australian company like Mercedes is German and Bentley is British etc. and Holdens could have been sold globally as uniquely Australian vehicles instead of the company being dictated by its US parent.

As others have pointed out, you're wrong about what Holden would have become had GM not bought them out. But the point you're making is spot on. The debate on who's to blame can go around in circles for ever, but by far the biggest reason we wont be manufacturing cars in this country for much longer is the fact that we never had a locally owned car company. If we did, and they were competent, they would have made very different product decisions over the last few decades than what we've seen from Ford and Holden. They would be actively chasing export opportunities, and anything else that would make them viable. But with Ford and Holden, they have accountants in Detroit trying to save money - they cant wait to get out of Australia! Who would blame them?

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

The bigger tragedy is if Toyota closes as a result of Holden's demise. Unlike Ford and GMH, Toyota have actively pursued and maintained a strong export base with annual output from Altona being in excess of 100k units. They've dealt ethically with the government and have done far more than both FoA and GMH combined to stay in Australia.

The government should be looking at this in the context of "if we don't prop up an incompetent, small-scale and unproductive car maker then a competent, large-scale and (relatively) productive car maker will fall too".

See I dont think losing Toyota is anywhere near as bad as losing Ford and Holden, because they don't do any R&D in this country. They just whack together Camrys that are entirely designed and developed overseas. They don't provide the high skilled engineering and design jobs on the level that Ford and Holden have. All those talented people who gave us the Falcon and Commodore will have no choice but to look overseas for a similar level of employment.

[BHDOGS]

I thought ford where keeping the r and d development here in oz for other cars around the world after the factorys gone

[danzvtil]

See I dont think losing Toyota is anywhere near as bad as losing Ford and Holden, because they don't do any R&D in this country. They just whack together Camrys that are entirely designed and developed overseas. They don't provide the high skilled engineering and design jobs on the level that Ford and Holden have. All those talented people who gave us the Falcon and Commodore will have no choice but to look overseas for a similar level of employment.[/QUOTE]

This is the exact reason why toyota SHOULD succeed in manufacturing here, they dont have the R+D burden of an orphan model not suited to any other market. They are able to amortize that development across 8 or 9 other plants worldwide that make the IDENTICAL model.The only reason toyota will make the next gen camry here is if the Middle East supply contract is won.The cynic in me says with Taiwan,Thailand and China camry factories all putting their hat in the ring to send cars to UAE, we have a snowballs chance in hell.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by fte50

The delegation is a mixture of shop stewards and workers of varying levels, in conjunction with union officials

Haha.... the union thinks it has some say in how a corporation overseas will be spending its money? Methinks its just posturing, the union trying to remain relevant.

[fte50]

Well they still are somewhat relevant, but they surely cant tell Holden how to run their business, even though they may try.
If this meeting was fair dinkum, its beyond the capacity of the biggest people there, that's why me thinks its all propaganda fluff.

[uniacidz]

I think there is more to it then just a media release depicting one side of a story

[1TUFFUTE]

Originally Posted by Rob 18

Weird! Sounds like the fed government are trying to help Holden and find a solution to the problem & Holden give them the middle finger!!!
I don't think I will bother feeling sorry for Holden anymore. Whats the point & you watch, WHEN they go they will blame the federal government. How ironic!
This is a main part of the reasons I am a supporter of the Ford Motor Company. There business ethic is by far superior to that of not just Holden, but GM world wide.
We might not all like the decisions Ford make, but at the end of the day they are running a business & run it much more professionally & ethically than the mob on the other side of the tracks.
It's not just the the cars I like, I love the brand & what it stands for!

And I wish I had a dollar for every time I've argued the same pro ford topic. Holden are muppets....

[1TUFFUTE]

Originally Posted by fte50

Holden makes a huge contribution to our economy through its engine export enterprise, more so than its cars.
On average something to the tune of 1billion p/a, some yrs less others more, amongst there best year in the last decade was 1.9billion.

In short Holden's success cant be measured on local vehicle sales alone as a big core of their business is engine export, many folks don't realise this fact though. Its for this reason you cant compare holden & ford as manufactures when considering ford has no export program and thus puts nothing back into the economy through export gain.

However the money both these companies put back through company taxes, payroll taxes, super contributions etc etc more than out way the assistance received.

got any sources for your figures there?

[XBGTFGGTP]

Originally Posted by TC200six

Anyone game enough to predict when Holden will announce closure? Early next year, or will they last longer than I think?

March-April. They waited for Ford too do it and take the heat off them especially with the handouts they have had. Don't have to be an accountant to work out if you sell something for $500 but costs you $700 which way your business is going.

[geehaa]

Probably too late but manufacturing in OZ cannot be allowed I die. Has it been that long since we had to have this to defend ourselves?

Although at this stage, I cannot see it, I'd love to witness the birth of a truly OZ car builder out of all this. It would not be competitive on a world stage but where there is a will we should find the way. Add the tech know-how we have with our development expertise, "voila".

Yeah, I know, dreaming.

[RANGEREST]

Originally Posted by 1TUFFUTE

got any sources for your figures there?

A 2012 report by the University of Adelaide’s Professor Barry Burgan estimated closing Holden’s Elizabeth plant would result in South Australian tax revenue losses of between $25 and $80 million; $133 million in wage losses; and serious employment losses amongst auto industry suppliers. Holden is estimated to contribute directly and indirectly up to 16,000 jobs in South Australia, and up to A$1.5 billion in state GDP.

[SB076]

I think Holden are tired of the politics (as I suggest Ford were) At the moment there is another review of the car industry, many would suggest it is too little too late

I think the government is mad for letting another industry go (labor Liberal I dont care) You look at the situation world wide, where countries are protecting their industries and jobs (USA, Germany, Korea, Japan) There must be some very good reasons for them to protect their industries and my concern is that Australia wont learn until its lost them.

[Bill M]

Originally Posted by fte50

Holden makes a huge contribution to our economy through its engine export enterprise, more so than its cars.
On average something to the tune of 1billion p/a, some yrs less others more, amongst there best year in the last decade was 1.9billion.

In short Holden's success cant be measured on local vehicle sales alone as a big core of their business is engine export, many folks don't realise this fact though. Its for this reason you cant compare holden & ford as manufactures when considering ford has no export program and thus puts nothing back into the economy through export gain.

However the money both these companies put back through company taxes, payroll taxes, super contributions etc etc more than out way the assistance received.

Bravo! Some clarity at last!
At least there are a few members here who don't want to see the remaining industries put to death.

[BroadyFord]

^^ The engine plant will close in 2016 regardless of what happens re vehicle investment.

On another note, article in today's AFR says GM will discuss Holden's fate in Detroit this week but no decision is expected. The article says that GM management will make a recommendation to the board about whether Holden should stay, leave or wait for the Prod Com's findings before deciding.

It all comes down to the next couple of weeks.

[Elks]

The mail is the new car to replace the commodore in 2017 can't be economically made as a RHD.

GM has already started shedding engineering staff.

They are gone. .. Sooner or later? Gone.

Whilst I bleed blue, and wishing Holden well is a little like barracking for Collingwood. I hope my mail is wrong and for the good of the industry and the country they stay on. But let's face it. There are people in Detroit talking about taking work back to them. I know if I was making the decision to bring stuff back to Oz it would be easy.

Of course no GM makes it even harder on the supply chain for Toyota.

[Elks]

Also when you look at subsidies and returns. And that Germany pays $95 per head, the return is different as they produce nearly 5.9 million cars in 2011 vs our 180k.

So while they have 4 times the population. They produce 30 times as many cars. Plus they are home to VW Group, Daimler Group and BMW so there economy benefits even further from cars made by these groups offshore.

[mik]

Originally Posted by Rodge

Strange...arn't they the ones calling for more Govt support ? I don't get why they arn't taking a more consultative approach, unless the end is imminent ? what other conclusion could one possibly draw from this ?

I think it is a forgone conclusion that they will pack up Rodge, just a matter of when rather than if.

[fte50]

Originally Posted by velvet

A 2012 report by the University of Adelaide’s Professor Barry Burgan estimated closing Holden’s Elizabeth plant would result in South Australian tax revenue losses of between $25 and $80 million; $133 million in wage losses; and serious employment losses amongst auto industry suppliers. Holden is estimated to contribute directly and indirectly up to 16,000 jobs in South Australia, and up to A$1.5 billion in state GDP.

Thanks for that velvet - even though I have posted multiple substantiated sources in various threads relating to this subject , some members clearly don't accept the truth and try to discredit the info put in front of them all to be the keyboard hero - mind you while they themselves continue their proverbial expert spin based purely on biased personal opinion and emotion without ever having a glimpse of the industry from the inside.

Here is a few links to show you a glimpse of Holdens Engine export history. The sources below is public information from the net.
Whilst their golden times and biggest export earning contributions were in fact during the export of Family II which was made redundant in 2009, there is no denying its significance as a national earner over the last 30yrs.
Although HFV6 does not have the same export volumes, it still accounts for on average 50,000 units p/a exported alone.. more than Ford make total, so its got to amount to something.

http://www.just-auto.com/news/genera...s_id70673.aspx

http://www.autoweb.com.au/cms/A_1030...wsarticle.html

http://www.autoweb.com.au/cms/newsarticle.html?&A=51504

http://www.trademinister.gov.au/rele...mvt087_04.html


Early V6 launch export 'expectations' that 'were realised' although have dropped off since 2011.

http://www.autointell.com/News-2003/...r-12-03-p8.htm

[Bossxr8]

GM have pretty much already made the call on the V6 plant, it's gone in 2016 wether the Commodore will continue or not. They are cutting the number of V6 plants from I think it's 6 to 4?, and guess which one makes the least amount of engines and probably has the highest costs. Not hard to see which one of the 2 will get the chop. It just requires the final announcement.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

GM have pretty much already made the call on the V6 plant, it's gone in 2016 wether the Commodore will continue or not. They are cutting the number of V6 plants from I think it's 6 to 4?, and guess which one makes the least amount of engines and probably has the highest costs. Not hard to see which one of the 2 will get the chop. It just requires the final announcement.

three areas that make the V6 Australia, Canada, Flint Michigan south.
oz and Canada are the only crate export: that will probably change if/when oz tanks.

[BroadyFord]

The V6 plant was only built in 2004 at a cost of $400 million - could go down in history as the shortest lifespan for an automotive plant.

Having said that there's nothing stopping GM keeping the plant going if it exports and makes money, even after car making ceases.

[fte50]

Wont happen. Even from the outset its maximum life expectancy was 15-20yrs, and HFV6 was always compromised by design. Pontiac was to be a big recipient but now they're gone excess supply don't meet demand.

The building is a massive carcass and state of the art, fully airconditioned, insulated etc.
The machinery, tooling and equipment manufactured by Sanyo Japan though is all "bolt in" , meaning it never had the look or feeling of a permanent setting, unlike the older plants where pylons and footings and machine foundations were set in concrete 50mtrs short of China deep.
The building wont go to waste, wether its kept and relocate HSPO into it etc etc, or perhaps it will be sold off and become a massive Aldi store to serve the ever fast growing yuppie docklands community.

[BroadyFord]

Breaking:

holden factory closure: No decision until next year

http://www.carsguide.com.au/news-and...year_20131119/

holden expected to wait until productivity commission review outcome before deciding future.
The manufacturing future of holden is not likely to be decided until next year as negotiations between general motors and the federal government are on hold pending the outcome of a productivity commission review.

Although general motors board members in detroit this week have a routine monthly meeting about the company’s global operations -- during which holden will be a brief "line item" -- a formal decision regarding holden’s factory operations is not expected to be made until next year.
Although senior holden executives admit the outlook is grim given the federal government’s pledge to fulfill its pre-election promise to cut industry funding, news corp australia understands a decision has not been made to shut the factory.
The long wait means 1700 holden factory workers at the elizabeth car assembly line near adelaide will go into the summer holiday break not knowing their long term future.
If holden decides to close its factory operations, a secret document reveals it could happen as early as 2016, the same year as ford is due to close its victorian factories.
News corp australia has learned the december meeting of general motors board members is due before the preliminary productivity commission report is delivered to the federal government on december 20.
This means that a formal decision about holden is unlikely until mid-january at the earliest, when the regional bosses of general motors -- including former holden boss mike devereux and gm's international operations boss stefan jacoby who visited holden for two days last week -- will meet at the company’s global headquarters during the detroit motor show.
The outcome of the preliminary productivity commission report to be delivered in december is expected to influence general motors’ decision.
If it does not recommend an increase in subsidies, then gm may announce a factory shutdown by the end of january.
If the preliminary productivity commission report comes out in favour of an increase in taxpayer assistance to the industry, general motors could wait until after the final pc report is due to be tabled on march 31, and then wait to see what action the federal government takes based on the recommendations.
At stake is whether or not holden will close its manufacturing operations at the end of the current commodore’s lifecycle or proceed with two new models scheduled to be built from 2016 to 2022.
In march 2012, holden announced it would invest $1 billion in two new cars in return for $275 million in taxpayer assistance.
But less than a year later holden said it needed more public funding because market conditions had “changed significantly” since the original deal was signed.
Holden sales are at a 20-year low as imported cars buoyed by the strong australian dollar dominate the market.
Before ford announced in may 2013 that it would close its manufacturing operations in october 2016, the leadership team in detroit discussed ford australia’s operations in more than 300 weekly meetings over seven years, ford ceo alan mulally told news corp australia during his visit to sydney in august.
Ford decided to announce the closure of its australian factories three years in advance -- unusually long in the car industry -- to allow workers and suppliers time to adjust.
If holden shuts its manufacturing operations, general motors is likely to announce the news soon after the decision is made at board level.
Ford announced the closure of its australian manufacturing operations less than a week after the decision was made formally at a board meeting in detroit.

I would interpret this as a glimmer of hope. At least it confirms GMH are not hell-bent on shutting down ASAP.

[fte50]

So does your 3-4 week predicted announcement now happen 3-4 months or 3-4yrs ??