Covid 19 -

[Charliewool]

Oh... Also land borders (Nicaragua to the North, and Panama to the South) are completely SHUT! (Nicaraguans illegally entering, early days, was found to be Costa Rican version of Victoria’s hotel quarantine fiasco!)

To facilitate freight transport through Costa Rica, the police organise a convoy of around 50 semis, who assemble at norther border (Nicaragua) and under police escort, are chauffeured down to Panamaian border. Police ensure no random stopping except at pre-determined government controlled points for toilet and food. This occurs once in each direction per day.

[Citroënbender]

That sounds largely like a pragmatic compromise.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Sweden or Uruguay put paid to your propaganda

Uruguay had the luxury of HCQ where they pop this medication like candy.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

5835 deaths total isn't quite '71x' the mortality rate of Australia.

image

Look at that - the last day recorded on these stats has a big fat 0 for deaths and a graph which has only been heading in one direction.

Deaths in Sweden are currently 19.3 times greater than that of Australia.

Or instead of the 774 deaths, if we had followed the Swedish model, all things being equal Australia would have recorded 14587 deaths.

So who wants to go with the current plan and who wants to follow the furniture salesman?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Deaths in Sweden are currently 19.3 times greater than that of Australia.

Or instead of the 774 deaths, if we had followed the Swedish model, all things being equal Australia would have recorded 14587 deaths.

So who wants to go with the current plan and who wants to follow the furniture salesman?

How is 5850 deaths 19.3x higher than 774?

They're also tracking better than Victoria on daily deaths recently.

It has one of the lowest rates of death in Europe.

How about deaths in Uruguay? That's another nation which didn't go the lockdown route and it's a neighbor to Brazil.

[arronm]

All you ****s just stay out of WA

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

How is 5850 deaths 19.3x higher than 774?

Australia has 2.5X the population of Sweden. Do the maths...

The argument you are trying to make has been made and lost....

You keep regurgitating the same BS, perhaps to entertain yourself, it's sad...

[nstg8a]

What if there’s no vaccine?

No economy can survive ongoing lockdowns, at some point we have to learn to live with the threat of the wuflu amongst us.
Simple measures each individual can take massively reduce the risk of getting it in the first place, and well, we’ve all seen the survivability numbers.

It’s time we accepted responsibility for our own health and stopped expecting the govt to act like our parents and tell us what to do, we aren’t stupid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[T3rminator]

Sweden will be a very interesting case study in the future. They took a gamble, and bet against the house. If vaccine comes earlier than expected or the virus potency diminishes over time, like a lot of virus do, then they have taken a very bad gamble.

If we don't get a vaccine for another 18+ months then they may have taken a good gamble. Only time will tell.

Their economy isn't exactly booming.

I think we've become somewhat desensitised to death rates given what we've seen in other parts of the world.

[Polyal]

Next few weeks will be interesting in VIC, people at home frustrated = issues.

For the government to essentially say we are not looking at opening until we have 14 days of 0 is crazy IMO. We need to start planning as if there is no vaccine, and learn to live with it. Can not keep going in and out of lock down on such a large scale.

The recorded cases may be the only way to put some science on this, but, there must be so much thats not identified and those areas are going about their business. So once we notice that people are infected its too late.

IMO the next phase is trying to get ahead, like always we are so reactive, I cant see states moving forward until we get some kind of random or targeted testing ahead of hot spots. Even if it finds nothing atleast you have an idea?

[FPV8U]

The Andrews government stance would make complete sense if it were using potential therapies in HCQ and Ivermectin treatments to try and eliminate the virus, have the state health officials coming out asking people to exercise daily, get plenty of time in the sun and eat healthy food.

Instead we get nothing, no state government backed treatment trials in the aged care homes that have been hit or in others to prevent the same from happening, no nutritional advice in relation to supplements, restricted hours outside in daylight which makes no sense, there is no scientific benefit and are several studies out on the benefits of vitamin D.

I’m not going to pretend he isn’t in a difficult position, but shutting everything and hiding under the bed for another six, twelve or eightteen months until a potential vaccine arrives then turning around to the public and saying take it without question or you never get to return to normal isn’t anything like leadership.

[tweeked]

The biggest problem is will any vaccine work? Covid-19 attacks the upper respiratory surface, it is not effectively "inside' the body. That is a big reason why no one has ever developed a vaccine for any coronavirus (there are many of them, the common cold if from the same family). There is a huge chance that there will be no effective vaccine.

We need to start living with it, and work out how to do so as safely as possible, not batten down the hatches waiting for a unicorn vaccine to arrive.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Their economy is doing better in comparison to France, Spain and Italy in terms of retractions:



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

Slightly better but hardly booming. Is it enough to justify letting it rip? Only time will tell.

Originally Posted by tweeked

We need to start living with it, and work out how to do so as safely as possible, not batten down the hatches waiting for a unicorn vaccine to arrive.

So who do we throw under the bus for that to happen? I mean, we know that people are going to get sick and die until we find that sweet spot on how to live with it as safely as possible... so who's up first? Our elderly parents/neighours/friends? They've already lived a full life and shouldn't be so selfish, having the country shut down just to protect them and their few years they had left anyway, jeez. Or how about cancer patients? I mean, they are immunocompromised and god has clearly already marked them for termination, right?

Who do you think is our best choice to take one for the team with getting infected and risking death so that we can get our economy started up again?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by leesa

So who do we throw under the bus for that to happen? I mean, we know that people are going to get sick and die until we find that sweet spot on how to live with it as safely as possible... so who's up first? Our elderly parents/neighours/friends? They've already lived a full life and shouldn't be so selfish, having the country shut down just to protect them and their few years they had left anyway, jeez. Or how about cancer patients? I mean, they are immunocompromised and god has clearly already marked them for termination, right?

Who do you think is our best choice to take one for the team with getting infected and risking death so that we can get our economy started up again?

A little over dramatic are you not? Did I say roll out the weak like trying to make sure all the kids get chicken pox? I said to do it as safely as possible, but you probably didn't read that far.

Why do we allow cars? Who do we allow to be thrown under the bus to allow the rest of us to drive? Over a thousand people are sacrificed every year allowing the rest of us to live a life that we all enjoy. We could save all those live by banning cars. Plus then add the lives "saved" by everyone exercising more. While in your world we could also ban public transport, I mean the amount of people catching and succumbing communicable diseases by being jammed together on communal transport is just not worth contemplating.

Keeping everything locked down forever is not then answer and waiting for a vaccine is not either. I bet if the health community were the ones losing their jobs their opinion on shutting everything down would be different. Our way of life is threatened by this. We have fought wars to protect our way of life. We did not want to be overtaken by a tyrannical despot 80 years ago who wanted to change the way we all lived. This is just a different war against a different opponent. You want to surrender.

We need smart government that minimises risks. We need an economy running top support all of this. The money does not grow on trees, it cannot go on for years. The people you are looking to protect are the ones who will suffer most if this continues much longer. Smart measures, protect the weak, but don't lock everyone down. That way we can afford to protect the weak.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

They've had single digit death rates since mostly since middle of July, except for an incident where it got into aged care homes (sound familiar?)

They had a few days of 0 deaths in there - everyone keeps referring to the first few months in Europe - look at their COVID-19 deaths from middle of June to current day.

Also they didn't have the luxury of being an island in the middle of the *** end of the planet.

Does that matter? You could say the same for Australia prior to this 2nd wave in Victoria as we had single digit deaths from March through to August, including several weeks of zero deaths but the overall numbers are what we are counting to gauge whether the strategies are right.

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

5835 deaths total isn't quite '71x' the mortality rate of Australia.

Look at that - the last day recorded on these stats has a big fat 0 for deaths and a graph which has only been heading in one direction.

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

How is 5850 deaths 19.3x higher than 774?

They're also tracking better than Victoria on daily deaths recently.

It has one of the lowest rates of death in Europe..

You clearly have missed the difference between raw numbers and rate. The 'rate' is the number of deaths (or cases) per 100k of population as it is the only measure that balances out different population sizes.

Sweden has had 84,985 cases and 5,835 deaths for a CMR of 6.86% which is more than twice the case mortality rate of Australia but they have also had 1,035 cases per 100k adults (Australia is 145.6) so that's 7x higher and they have had 71.1 deaths per 100k of population compared to Australia with 4.51 (so 15x greater).

Capiche?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by leesa

So who do we throw under the bus for that to happen? I mean, we know that people are going to get sick and die until we find that sweet spot on how to live with it as safely as possible... so who's up first? Our elderly parents/neighours/friends? They've already lived a full life and shouldn't be so selfish, having the country shut down just to protect them and their few years they had left anyway, jeez. Or how about cancer patients? I mean, they are immunocompromised and god has clearly already marked them for termination, right?

Who do you think is our best choice to take one for the team with getting infected and risking death so that we can get our economy started up again?

Conversely, what do you do if a vaccine is 12 months away?

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by tweeked

The people you are looking to protect are the ones who will suffer most if this continues much longer. Smart measures, protect the weak, but don't lock everyone down. That way we can afford to protect the weak.

I struggle to imagine how hard it is now, for people previously on the social margin in Victoria. I know elderly here without close family, who are suffering due to the strictures which effectively removed their routines and social interactions. They may be “safe” but their lives have lost measurable value and purpose.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I struggle to imagine how hard it is now, for people previously on the social margin in Victoria. I know elderly here without close family, who are suffering due to the strictures which effectively removed their routines and social interactions. They may be “safe” but their lives have lost measurable value and purpose.

My mother is 84, in a nursing home with advanced dementia. The only thing she can remember is her children. Yet to protect her we are not allowed to see her, so she spends most of her time in her room by herself.

I know what she wants, but our government is "protecting" her so she can last as long as possible locked in her room.

Originally Posted by tweeked

A little over dramatic are you not? Did I say roll out the weak like trying to make sure all the kids get chicken pox? I said to do it as safely as possible, but you probably didn't read that far.

Perhaps "as safely as possible" means something differently to you, but "as possible" does imply that there will be some loss of life while we test the waters to find that sweet spot between safe and productive.

Sounds like your acceptable number of casualties is a lot higher than mine but so far the government seems to agree with my version instead of your version.

Originally Posted by tweeked

My mother is 84, in a nursing home with advanced dementia. The only thing she can remember is her children. Yet to protect her we are not allowed to see her, so she spends most of her time in her room by herself.

I know what she wants, but our government is "protecting" her so she can last as long as possible locked in her room.

and in the next room beside your mother's there will probably be another 84 year old who has no mental decline, is fully aware of what's going on and appreciates visitors being locked out. You visiting your mother puts everyone else at that home at risk. So what's the answer? Is there a solution that suits everyone? Probably not unfortunately.

Edited to add: You could probably pull your mother out of the nursing home and care for her at your home during the pandemic. If all she remembers is her children and that makes her happy, perhaps that's a good compromise for you to be able to see her this year but not risk the rest of the residents at the home?

[russellw]

71 new cases for Australia and 5 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.866% while active drop to 3,063. NSW recorded 10 cases; Queensland 2, WA 1 with the balance in Victoria.

5 new cases and zero deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.354% and active cases rise to 116.

The UK had 2,998 new cases yesterday and as we know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 40k new cases in the USA yesterday and 707 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.999% and active cases drop to 39.3% with the raw numbers rising again. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 87M, India 48M and Portugal 2M tests;
Africa passes 30k deaths;

Paraguay (1,217), Morocco (2,234) and India (91,723) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Worth commenting on, is the gap between Australia and New Zealand. Prior to this 2nd wave, Australia was either ahead or line-ball with New Zealand for most statistics but the gap is now an ever increasing one.

CMR, which AU led, is now 1.35% for NZ and 2.86% for Australia;
Cases per 100k adults, which used to be fairly close, is now 37 for NZ and 180 for AU;
Mortalities per 100k adults which was also fairly even is now 0.65 for NZ and 4.2 for Australia.

From a global perspective, they are both good results, particularly with the reasonably high volumes of testing in both countries.

[Bossxr8]

The irony of the state that locked down the hardest from the get go, and is now the state with the worst situation is not lost on Dan Andrews is it?

BuT DaN AnDrEwS iS DoInG a GoOd JoB.

He better have his riot busting squad in full preparation because the weekend protest will be just the start. People are getting ****ed off big time.

And before one of the sheep chime in, i'm not for protests in large groups. Just stating my opinion on what is going to happen.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by leesa

and in the next room beside your mother's there will probably be another 84 year old who has no mental decline, is fully aware of what's going on and appreciates visitors being locked out. You visiting your mother puts everyone else at that home at risk. So what's the answer? Is there a solution that suits everyone? Probably not unfortunately.

Edited to add: You could probably pull your mother out of the nursing home and care for her at your home during the pandemic. If all she remembers is her children and that makes her happy, perhaps that's a good compromise for you to be able to see her this year but not risk the rest of the residents at the home?

Not an option for me as I am lucky enough to still be working. Even if I wasn't a 3 storey townhouse is not safe for her. And to your first point, when the staff there start up a skype call we have a quick chat, and I can assure you they are not saying that any of the residents are appreciating no visitors.

I am actually not advocating that they open up nursing homes, I understand the dangers in aged care, I was just relaying what she wants. That is an area that must be locked down, and that is tragic.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The irony of the state that locked down the hardest from the get go, and is now the state with the worst situation is not lost on Dan Andrews is it?

BuT DaN AnDrEwS iS DoInG a GoOd JoB.

He better have his riot busting squad in full preparation because the weekend protest will be just the start. People are getting ****ed off big time.

And before one of the sheep chime in, i'm not for protests in large groups. Just stating my opinion on what is going to happen.

That's because the medical team they're getting advice from are all from the 'elimination' camp - massively stacked panel it's just like Q&A except they don't have the solitary person from the other camp to all crucify.

Remember when it was just about 'flattening the curve'?

Now it's keep 6 million people under house arrest indefinitely - how fair is that on our arts/culture and hospitality industry? Or the massive amount of youth who get their first start in these industries?

Be careful which opinions you post though or you'll end up on the AFF moderation ****list because here on AFF we don't like opinions that are against the bull**** we're being fed and we need to protect the chicken littles from differing points of view

[Charliewool]

The next few days are going to be “interesting” in Vic?
Talking to family and friends back “home” and listening to 3aw just now....
LOTS of VERY frustrated and unhappy campers!
Stay safe all.....

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

The next few days are going to be “interesting” in Vic?
Talking to family and friends back “home” and listening to 3aw just now....
LOTS of VERY frustrated and unhappy campers!
Stay safe all.....

I don't think people will take to the streets but there's visible frustration going on.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

The next few days are going to be “interesting” in Vic?
Talking to family and friends back “home” and listening to 3aw just now....
LOTS of VERY frustrated and unhappy campers!
Stay safe all.....

Frustration is high, but it has been for months!

I see Neil Mitchell from 3aw did an opinion piece critiquing the Premiers handling of the pandemic.

They started a pole yesterday, 'Was it the right decision to extend the Melbourne lockdown by a further two weeks?'

So far over 70% agree with the extended lock down, from about 140 000 votes.


https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...5-9198ba112573

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Frustration is high, but it has been for months!

I see Neil Mitchell from 3aw did an opinion piece critiquing the Premiers handling of the pandemic.

They started a pole yesterday, 'Was it the right decision to extend the Melbourne lockdown by a further two weeks?'

So far over 70% agree with the extended lock down, from about 140 000 votes.


https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...5-9198ba112573

I think Daniel Andrews grinned from ear to ear when he saw the wording of that question.

I am amazed that 30% said no to it. I don't think anyone expected that the lockdown would be "lifted". People are not angry that there is still some form of lockdown ongoing - they are angry about the conditions of the lockdown.

If the question was "should we be safely opening up quicker than what the Government is proposing" it think you would see a very different result.

[nstg8a]

Imagine how different things could be if instead of all these resources being poured into locking down a whole damned state and country they were put into protecting the most vulnerable, educating and re-educating people on the simple measures to take to reduce the spread.
Beefing up the health system to be able to handle any large impact.
But people still being able to work, to see loved ones, to move freely except for near the aforementioned vulnerable.

There is much attention paid to the potential seriousness of this virus, yet real life figures around the globe do not support the extreme measure being taken.