Covid 19 -

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Just heard on the news that the WHO has recorded the largest single day new case tally of over 338,000.

Seems like the northern hemisphere winter is starting to have an impact.

Just heard on ABC 7 am news that Melbourne is very UNLIKELY to meet the October 19 deadline to be able to come out of lockdown.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Jesus Christ. I haven't been following this conspiracy, but every few weeks it seems more like something deeper is going on.

You fool Hazzard! Never reveal the Deep State exists. Never mind, we'll have erased him and his family by lunchtime.



In before the morning thread clean-up.

[xxx000]

Random fact: Brad was one of my high school teachers

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by xxx000

Random fact: Brad was one of my high school teachers

What's your address? We'll send a black Ford Transit van for you as well

[zilo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Now we've all had fun for the morning can we get back on topic.

Good moderating.

[Tickford.]

Back on topic of COVID, to please zilo, the "cure" for COVID (as portrayed by President Donny), could it be that members of the Trump family own shares in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals?

Could it also possibly be that it's CEO "Lenny" is a good friend of Donny, and is also a member of the Trump National golf club in Briarcliff Manor, New York?

And finally, could it be that Lenny had a meeting with Donny in May of this year to discuss a new drug his company was developing?

Just asking for a friend.

[Tickford.]

Staying on topic, Donny has been very vocal about his health in the media. Even stating he feels 20 years younger, that he's never felt better, etc., but he has not mentioned a word about Malaria Trump's progress?? Or how any of his 30 odd staff members are doing after testing positive to COVID??

Donny boy is solely focus is on himself. Not a care given to his accessory of 15 years? Or the health of any of his staff members and their families. Says quite a bit about the 'man' really.

[wodahs]

so he lies to the American people

I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic

and then goes and hypes up a snake oil cure thats not been proven yet , even after denouncing the Russian leader of doing this same thing with a cure they are trying to streamline in to production
and such an announcement may create panic in its own , the way it was delivered
also this cocktail concoction cure is derived from the stem cells (and we know where they come from)
i see he has respect for his nation
https://nypost.com/2020/10/08/regene...-tissue-cells/
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysi...whacked/32932/

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Staying on topic, Donny has been very vocal about his health in the media. Even stating he feels 20 years younger, that he's never felt better, etc., but he has not mentioned a word about Malaria Trump's progress?? Or how any of his 30 odd staff members are doing after testing positive to COVID??

Donny boy is solely focus is on himself. Not a care given to his accessory of 15 years? Or the health of any of his staff members and their families. Says quite a bit about the 'man' really.

Yeah yeah, keep your head buried & asleep in MSM....

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT October 9th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

23 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.294% while active cases rise to 1,360. NSW recorded 10, WA recorded 2 and SA recorded 1 case with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 10.71 with metro slightly up at 9.5 (10 unknown) and regional at 0.4 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 14 new cases for the last 24 hours.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.340% and active cases rise to 40.

The UK had 13,864 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 87 deaths.

Just under 57k new cases in the USA yesterday and 957 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.779% and active cases remain at 33.1% with the raw numbers rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 37M, the last 1M also taking only 3 days;
Global deaths passed 1.05M on the 6th, the last 50k in 9 days;
Global cases set a new daily high of 351,596;
The USA completes 116M, India 84M and France 12M tests;
Europe recorded a new daily high of 102,352 (8/10);

Bulgaria (612); Morocco (3,445); Romania (3,186); Poland (4,739); Belgium (5,728); Ukraine (5,804); Netherlands (5,971); Czechia (8,617); Russia (12,126, the previous high on May 11th) and France (20,339) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Romulus

My oh my, finally proper investigative questions at Andrews press conference by no other than Peta Credlin. It's taken the job of a lawyer to what the 'journalists' should have done at each and every Andrews press conference.

We'll finally find out the detail of the missing 6 minutes and who gave the instruction to use private security contractors leading to the deaths of over 800 Victorians.

I don't know how many times I've now heard DA say he takes full responsibility. They won't stop until he resigns, but he won't, good. The people of Vic should decide, not mouth pieces for a tabloid.

Its no wonder why other state premiers are being extra anal on border restrictions, coincidentally all Labor. They know they will be lynched if they put a foot wrong. Meanwhile free pass on ruby and newmarch. Where was Peta when documents showed passengers being let off ruby at 2am, which was not subject to the inquiry? Tell me this isn't political.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I don't know how many times I've now heard DA say he takes full responsibility. They won't stop until he resigns, but he won't, good. The people of Vic should decide, not mouth pieces for a tabloid.

Its no wonder why other state premiers are being extra anal on border restrictions, coincidentally all Labor. They know they will be lynched if they put a foot wrong. Meanwhile free pass on ruby and newmarch. Where was Peta when documents showed passengers being let off ruby at 2am, which was not subject to the inquiry? Tell me this isn't political.

Of course it's political where News Corp vs. Andrews in concerned.

But you need to get a bit of perspective here - Newmarch and Ruby didn't kill 809 people and set a torch to the NSW economy.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

But you need to get a bit of perspective here - Newmarch and Ruby didn't kill 809 people and set a torch to the NSW economy.

Fair point. But out of that 809 deaths, how many were aged care related? And who exactly is responsible for the aged care sector, the state or the federal government?

A cynic might even say the federal government turned a blind eye early on once they knew that the VIC aged care facilities were infected with COVID. You know, like.. "playing political games" for ones own benefit.

[CoupeKing]

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Or don’t wear one when you know you’re infected

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

A cynic might even say the federal government turned a blind eye early on once they knew that the VIC aged care facilities were infected with COVID. You know, like.. "playing political games" for ones own benefit.

Whilst we all have differing opinions, I’d like to think that no one would accept that’s the case.

[jmack]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Fair point. But out of that 809 deaths, how many were aged care related? And who exactly is responsible for the aged care sector, the state or the federal government?

A cynic might even say the federal government turned a blind eye early on once they knew that the VIC aged care facilities were infected with COVID. You know, like.. "playing political games" for ones own benefit.

The force is strong in this one

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Of course it's political where News Corp vs. Andrews in concerned.

But you need to get a bit of perspective here - Newmarch and Ruby didn't kill 809 people and set a torch to the NSW economy.

Well I do have a different perspective on this saga.

We are told this is a 1 in 100 year event, it is a highly infection disease. No one alive has had past experience in how to handle such an event. States were made to take on quarantine at quite a short notice. Granted other states have done well, but I did read in a report that Melbourne was taking in 50% of overseas arrivals in the early phases. That was just due to how flights arrived into Australia, and you had to quarantine in the states were you arrived. Risk was always going to be greater.

These hotels are not built for quarantine purposes. Risk was always going to be high. Lots have been said about security guards, who have not covered themselves in glory, but lets not forget patient zero was not a security guard, it was a hotel night duty manager. From what we know so far, that manager infected the guards, who then took it home to their families, and that is how it snowballed. Where is the outrage and scrutiny with the night duty manager and the hotel company?

I don't understand the issue with using a security firm to guard hotels. That is what security firms specialise in, guarding. The unfortunate thing is that the security firm they chose took short cuts, that issue lies with the firm's management, and there is currently a criminal investigation into their conduct. I don't understand the push to use ADF in hotel quarantine either, the last thing you want is for this virus to spread through your defence force.

A large percentage of Vic's deaths were due to aged care. You would have hoped authorities responsible for aged care had learnt from Newmarch, but nope, it happened again....that to me is inexcusable. There has been a royal inquiry into aged care and covid. It is very clear who owns the errors. I wouldn't go as far as to say the authorities "didn't care", but I do believe a conscious decision was made on return on investment. Where is the outrage? Buried. Excluding aged care, deaths in Vic would be sitting around 200? The story would be very different.

As for DA, resigning now would be a gutless move, and pass the poisoned chalice to the next premier. I'm sure he could take a cushy job elsewhere, and not have his family cop the vile abuse. Anyhow, the Coate report will be an interesting read. My guess is that a number of failures will be identified across a multitude of lines of responsibilities, rather than a finger being pointed at one particular person.

I thought this was a really good article covering how "journalists" are approaching DA.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...09-p563lt.html

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Fair point. But out of that 809 deaths, how many were aged care related? And who exactly is responsible for the aged care sector, the state or the federal government?

A cynic might even say the federal government turned a blind eye early on once they knew that the VIC aged care facilities were infected with COVID. You know, like.. "playing political games" for ones own benefit.

A cynic (like me) might even believe the ultimate blame goes all the way to the top ie the Federal Government for letting returning traveller's go into hotel quarantine in the first place.

What was wrong with Christmas Island, 40 days quarantine. Yeah we all know it was about money they wanted to save initial but look what its cost them (and us) in the long run.

They were advised and knew how serious all this was right from the start but still pushed for hotel quarantine in different states, spreading the virus.

Seriously what were they thinking leaving something this big in the hands of dumba**e state governments when International borders are their responsibility.

[T3rminator]

Also I should add, the "journalists" gunning for DA work for an organisation that believes Covid has been overplayed, and have also been fueling conspiracy theories. One of the key issues Victoria is facing is that sections of the community, involved in the outbreak, believe this is all a hoax and are refusing tests and had continued to flout the rules with large family gatherings.

[russellw]

A couple of quick graphs looking at the rate of case and mortality growth.

Cases - no real improvement here with the more recent data being constant at around 3 days per 1M new cases although where they are coming from has changed a bit.



Deaths - it has been consistently around 9 days per 50k deaths but had started to look promising after the previous 50k had taken 10 days but it's back to 9 again.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

A cynic (like me) might even believe the ultimate blame goes all the way to the top ie the Federal Government for letting returning traveller's go into hotel quarantine in the first place.

What was wrong with Christmas Island, 40 days quarantine. Yeah we all know it was about money they wanted to save initial but look what its cost them (and us) in the long run.

They were advised and knew how serious all this was right from the start but still pushed for hotel quarantine in different states, spreading the virus.

Seriously what were they thinking leaving something this big in the hands of dumba**e state governments when International borders are their responsibility.

You do know that thousands of people were returning per week? That is what is wrong with Christmas Island, too remote, too small to handle anything like the amount of people returning. Hotel quarantine worked everywhere except for the amateur set up in Melbourne.

[Tickford.]

Which would have been better? Security guards or the ADF?

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6191070108001

Who was on security duty at the Pier One Hotel that allowed this to happen?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Which would have been better? Security guards or the ADF?

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6191070108001

Who was on security duty at the Pier One Hotel that allowed this to happen?

Well considering ADF security caught him, I think that question does not need to be asked. No catching of people in Melbourne, and it was the security that was breaking the quarantine as much as the people in quarantine.

[russellw]

I think we need to start considering the longer term 'new world order' for dealing with COVID19.

What we are currently seeing in Europe is a warning about complacency with the last 30 days seeing case numbers grow from < 40k per day to > 100k per day and the fact that despite only having 9.5% of the global population, they have 15.7% of all cases and 21.4% of all deaths.



Indeed, the 30 day trend shows Europe, North America and South America all trending upward while Africa is showing a slight upward trend and only Asia is trending downward.



It would be reasonable to suggest that as they enter winter, the European numbers are only going to worsen and we are largely powerless (short of economic ruin) of containing it at any reasonable level.

It then begs the question I've raised before which is what is the threshold at which society as a whole accepts the consequences of not containing this virus in the absence of a vaccine?

You can argue all day as to whether the CMR is higher for COVID19 than it is for Influenza but that virus is the closest example which we can draw on for 'community acceptance' of the consequences.

It's global mortality is anything between 290-600k based on what type of season the world has and which strains are more prevalent with a 10 year average of 403k and an infection rate that we can now agree is much lower and less volatile than COVID19.

If we extrapolate the 7 months worth of COVID19 data out to a full year then we are looking at somewhere between 80-85M case and 1.5M-1.6M deaths globally or about four times the deaths caused by Influenza so is that an acceptable number to live with?

Before answering, bear in mind that:

1. Unlike Influenza, COVID 19 has a greater impact on the 60+ age group than any other group;
2. Without the current level of precautions globally, it is likely the total case numbers and total deaths will be higher in the future (at least until there is a viable vaccine); and
3. There is still no clarity around what the longer term health affects are even for those who recover, regardless of age.

[wodahs]

and there we have it

Originally Posted by russellw

'new world order'

theyve even got to russellw

sorry but you knew some one was going to i just got there first

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think we need to start considering the longer term 'new world order' for dealing with COVID19.

What we are currently seeing in Europe is a warning about complacency with the last 30 days seeing case numbers grow from < 40k per day to > 100k per day and the fact that despite only having 9.5% of the global population, they have 15.7% of all cases and 21.4% of all deaths.

image

Indeed, the 30 day trend shows Europe, North America and South America all trending upward while Africa is showing a slight upward trend and only Asia is trending downward.

image

It would be reasonable to suggest that as they enter winter, the European numbers are only going to worsen and we are largely powerless (short of economic ruin) of containing it at any reasonable level.

It then begs the question I've raised before which is what is the threshold at which society as a whole accepts the consequences of not containing this virus in the absence of a vaccine?

You can argue all day as to whether the CMR is higher for COVID19 than it is for Influenza but that virus is the closest example which we can draw on for 'community acceptance' of the consequences.

It's global mortality is anything between 290-600k based on what type of season the world has and which strains are more prevalent with a 10 year average of 403k and an infection rate that we can now agree is much lower and less volatile than COVID19.

If we extrapolate the 7 months worth of COVID19 data out to a full year then we are looking at somewhere between 80-85M case and 1.5M-1.6M deaths globally or about four times the deaths caused by Influenza so is that an acceptable number to live with?

Before answering, bear in mind that:

1. Unlike Influenza, COVID 19 has a greater impact on the 60+ age group than any other group;
2. Without the current level of precautions globally, it is likely the total case numbers and total deaths will be higher in the future (at least until there is a viable vaccine); and
3. There is still no clarity around what the longer term health affects are even for those who recover, regardless of age.

That is the big question Russ, and the reality is if we as a world try to live more of a "Covid normal" it wont be 1.6 million deaths, more like 10 million at least. I look at it this way, if alien spaceships turned up and they started killing people randomly except managing to get more older than younger, and we had the choice.... To all hide in our houses for 2,3 4 or more years, and lose 1 million at best, economic ruin for many but have our freedom severely curtailed....... Or as a world we fight it and try to live our lives, protect the old and ourselves as best we can, but at the cost of 10 million a year (or more) out of 7 Billion............

That is a war I would say is worth fighting rather than hiding from.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT October 10th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

15 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.292% while active cases remain at 1,360. NSW recorded 3 and Queensland recorded 1 case with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now10.86 (up) with metro down to 9.3 (10 unknown) and regional at 0.4 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 12 new cases for the last 24 hours. The 7 day case numbers for Victoria are up by 5% to 78 but deaths are down from 23 last week to just 4 this week.

4 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.337% and active cases rise to 44.

The UK had 15,185 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 81 deaths.

Just over 60.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 909 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.770% and active cases remain at 33.1% with the raw numbers rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases set a new daily high of 358,354;
India passes 7M cases;
The USA completes 117M, India 85M and Russia 50M tests;
Europe recorded a new daily high of 102,352 (8/10);

Angola (215); Hungary (1,374); Portugal (1,646 - the previous high on April 6th); Romania (3,517); Netherlands (4,499); Nepal (5,008); Poland (5,300); Russia (12,846) and France (26,896) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by wodahs

and there we have it

theyve even got to russellw

sorry but you knew some one was going to i just got there first

Good try but the term originated with Woodrow Wilson post WW1, the alleged 'war to end all wars', based on the belief that the world could not continue to go on as it had pre-WW1.

In reality, it largely did and we eventually ended up with WWII.

[tweeked]

Hey Russ, might be a dumb question, but why do the metro and regional 14 day averages for Vic never come close to adding up to the total? Are there other averages that are not classed as Metro/Regional?