Covid 19 - - Page 232

**russellw** · 11-10-2020, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweeked

Hey Russ, might be a dumb question, but why do the metro and regional 14 day averages for Vic never come close to adding up to the total? Are there other averages that are not classed as Metro/Regional?

It's a good question and one which I can't answer. It could be because the State average comes from one data source whereas the regional / metro is from another.

**russellw** · 11-10-2020, 01:17 PM

Let's drill down on Europe a bit. The data is up to midnight on the 9th October.

The first set of data looks at the countries with the highest case numbers and we can see a steep increase for France over the last week; the UK having continued to climb over the last month and only Spain showing a steady downward trend.

The next highest group have all trended upward quite sharply since the beginning of October, only Romania slightly less so.

The third group have also all trended upward at different rates over the last week with Portugal having the steepest climb and the other two fairly similar curves.

The fourth group is a little more inconsistent with Bulgaria having the steepest increase; Norway, Denmark and Croatia having milder but similar increases; Serbia, Greece and Bosnia having relatively mild increases, with only Albania trending downward.

All but one of those countries (Serbia) is higher than their 95th percentile daily case numbers over the last 7 days; 10 of them (Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Romania & the UK) have recorded new daily case highs within the last 10 days and most of those which haven't had very high first wave cases.

**russellw** · 11-10-2020, 01:40 PM

Looking at those which haven't recorded their highest case numbers inside the last 10 days we have:

Albania, which recorded their high of 178 cases on 24th August and their high last week of 169 isn't far off it.

Serbia has already had two waves, one in March and one in July / August and looks to be starting a third wave even if the trend line is downward.

Norway is in the midst of a second wave that is nowhere near as bad as the first wave but the number have been climbing this last 10 days.

Italy is also in the grip of a strengthening second wave and the numbers are starting to close in on the first wave peaks.

Germany is also having a strong second wave but they are still well short of the first wave peak even if they are steadily climbing.

Austria is probably already above the first wave peak realistically as that peak was a 'one-day' number and the recent numbers have all been higher than anything since.

Spain looks OK but only because they are on the downward side of the second wave, having peaked some three weeks ago.

Mr_G6ET · 11-10-2020, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

I think we need to start considering the longer term 'new world order' for dealing with COVID19.

Always good info, this one among the best (IMO) for promoting thought about what we know and the reality of what we don't know

Thinking it will all be under control via a vaccine 'soon' is unlikely I think we all agree.
Not sure where it's at (latest dev.) but better testing, hot spot control I feel will take over from economic destruction long before vaccine. Common sense ?

T3rminator · 11-10-2020, 03:34 PM

Looking for some advice. Has anyone successfully applied to leave the country since restrictions were imposed?

My cousin had his first child in Oct last year. In Jan, the mum took the baby overseas to meet relatives. Then the pandemic hit and restrictions kicked in and they haven't been able to return since. Yes, they are aware they can fly back, but they think flying and quarantining in a hotel with other potentially infected guests is too risky for the baby. Probably a good call given what has transpired.

My cousin applied to the gov to "reunite" with the family overseas. He is willing to take the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. Application was rejected! He has missed the 1st bday and doesn't know when they will reunite. He lives alone and I can't imagine what his mental health would be like, but he assures me he is "ok".

Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country?

How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand.

**cs123** · 11-10-2020, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Looking for some advice. Has anyone successfully applied to leave the country since restrictions were imposed?

My cousin had his first child in Oct last year. In Jan, the mum took the baby overseas to meet relatives. Then the pandemic hit and restrictions kicked in and they haven't been able to return since. Yes, they are aware they can fly back, but they think flying and quarantining in a hotel with other potentially infected guests is too risky for the baby. Probably a good call given what has transpired.

My cousin applied to the gov to "reunite" with the family overseas. He is willing to take the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. Application was rejected! He has missed the 1st bday and doesn't know when they will reunite. He lives alone and I can't imagine what his mental health would be like, but he assures me he is "ok".

Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country?

How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand.

Yes, Tony Abbott and George Pell did. I assume they have friends that you don't...

**DJR-351** · 11-10-2020, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Looking for some advice. Has anyone successfully applied to leave the country since restrictions were imposed?

My cousin had his first child in Oct last year. In Jan, the mum took the baby overseas to meet relatives. Then the pandemic hit and restrictions kicked in and they haven't been able to return since. Yes, they are aware they can fly back, but they think flying and quarantining in a hotel with other potentially infected guests is too risky for the baby. Probably a good call given what has transpired.

My cousin applied to the gov to "reunite" with the family overseas. He is willing to take the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. Application was rejected! He has missed the 1st bday and doesn't know when they will reunite. He lives alone and I can't imagine what his mental health would be like, but he assures me he is "ok".

Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country?

How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand.

Guys from my work crewed on company ships that needed delivering out of Australia, 3 went to Singapore and had to Quarantine on the ship for the leftover 3 days out of 14 (11 days sail to Singa) they then did a 14 day quarantine on return to Aus. The fourth was on a ship that went to Subic Bay in the Philippines, he has to do a 14 day stint in the Philippines (they don't count the time on the ship like Singapore did) and another 14 on his return, i think he has another 3 days to go before returning to Aus. I know of 2 others that did a similar delivery to Malaysia but don't know the details....

And of course there is this fellow.....

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...21-p55o8s.html

tweeked · 11-10-2020, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country?

How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand.

Because they will want to come back and we have a huge problem already re admitting citizens, why send more over? - pretty compelling.

T3rminator · 11-10-2020, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJR-351

..

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...21-p55o8s.html

Reading that nearly made me put a screw driver through the laptop. I can understand politicians being granted leave to perform national duties, but that one just smells bad all over. I was hoping there would be another category he could use on the basis of "compassionate and compelling" reason. I just checked the gov website, and it seems to say if you are leaving for more than 3 months than that is a valid reason. I might ask him to check it out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweeked

Because they will want to come back and we have a huge problem already re admitting citizens, why send more over? - pretty compelling.

Yeh I get that, but he was willing to wear the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. His work had granted him 6 months leave too. Father in law is loaded so his livelihood doesn't hang on his day job. He wasn't asking to go on holiday, I would have thought his reason was pretty solid. Maybe not "heart bleeding" enough.

Having said that, another cousin was granted leave after her father unexpectedly passed away. It was granted on the day before all outgoing flights were temporarily grounded. The letter came 15 mins after her original and last flight departed from Melb. So she had to book an immediate flight to Syd, then from Syd to Bris, then out.

That was about 3 months ago, she hasn't asked to return.

nstg8a · 11-10-2020, 10:12 PM

Just get them on a plane back to Australia as soon as possible.

Any small risk faced in hotel quarantine is a risk I’d be far happier with than sitting in a country overseas with no support and the very real risk of the situation deteriorating even further.

Get them home while you still can.

**Polyal** · 12-10-2020, 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Looking for some advice. Has anyone successfully applied to leave the country since restrictions were imposed?

My cousin had his first child in Oct last year. In Jan, the mum took the baby overseas to meet relatives. Then the pandemic hit and restrictions kicked in and they haven't been able to return since. Yes, they are aware they can fly back, but they think flying and quarantining in a hotel with other potentially infected guests is too risky for the baby. Probably a good call given what has transpired.

My cousin applied to the gov to "reunite" with the family overseas. He is willing to take the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. Application was rejected! He has missed the 1st bday and doesn't know when they will reunite. He lives alone and I can't imagine what his mental health would be like, but he assures me he is "ok".

Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country?

How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand.

My brother is in the same boat, child is now 4 months old and cant go OS to see them even if the intention is to stay over there.

I cant imagine how that must feel, not having any idea of when you are going to see your new born would be tough.

**FairmontGS** · 12-10-2020, 07:32 AM

I have a cousin in Israel who had a serious heart attack recently. He's not getting the medical assistance that he needs given how dire the second Zombie outbreak is there ATM and he can't fly home. We could lose him as a result.

Citroënbender · 12-10-2020, 08:09 AM

I’ve been waiting to hear some recent official figures come out for Israel, given the several weeks of holiday events only concluded Sunday night.

**russellw** · 12-10-2020, 11:48 AM

Data valid as at 23:55 GMT October 11th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

21 new cases for Australia and 1 death so the CMR rises to 3.294% while active cases increase to 1,364. NSW recorded 5; WA & SA 2 cases each with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now back down to 10.57 with metro rising to 9.9 (11 unknown) and regional at 0.4 with no unknown cases. Victoria reported 15 new cases for the last 24 hours.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.336% and active cases rise to 46. The country completed 1M tests or the equivalent of 27% of the adult population. (Disclaimer: before the pedants step in, it should be noted that this does not imply that 27% of the population have been tested as some individuals may receive numerous tests. It is only useful to compare with similar data from other countries as an indicator of how much testing has been conducted).

The UK had 12,872 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 65 deaths.

Just over 54.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 723 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.760% and active cases rise to 33.2% with the raw numbers rising and now back over 2.6M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases set a new daily high of 359,612 (10/10);
Europe passes 6M cases;
The USA completes 118M, India 86M, Germany 18M, Canada & Australia 8M, Saudi Arabia 7M and New Zealand 1M tests;
Europe recorded a new daily high of 110,050 (9/10);

Slovenia (411); Slovakia (1,087); Belgium (7,950) and Russia (13,634) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

**russellw** · 12-10-2020, 11:53 AM

Quote:

I’ve been waiting to hear some recent official figures come out for Israel, given the several weeks of holiday events only concluded Sunday night

Probably too early to tell yet as the festivities seem to have slowed down the reporting as well. The numbers for last week were well below the previous week (25,432 against 37,343) so we'll have to wait and see what shakes out over the next few days.

Ben73 · 12-10-2020, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by .:4:.

I went to the doctors today. I havent seen a doctor in years. But since covid, its very different. First you wait outside, there are signs saying if you are sick, do not attend, which is kinda why most see a doctor. I wasnt sick, then the lady from the front desk comes out to find out your appointment etc. Then the doctor calls your mobile, asks a stack of questions as to why youre there, then you go in and see them. So what do you have to do if you are actually sick?

They let you in? That's alright. Mine said they can only do phone appointments unless its 100% necessary to come in.
I also got a vaccination in my car in the car park during a heavy downpour. Dodgy AF.

AlanD · 12-10-2020, 05:18 PM

And a second head rolls over the security SNAFU in Victoria.

Chris Eccles, the permanent Secretary of the Victorian Dept of Premier and Cabinent, resigned earlier today when phone records show he did contact the then Police Commissioner in the missing six minute interval.

Go here for the full story:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...signs/12753610

Makes for interesting reading - and as we might expect the Leader of the Opposition is busy making statements about resignations of others.

I feel that Mr O'Brien needs to be careful - the day may come when he finds himself in a similar position. One wonders how he might react in similar circumstances.

I know it feels good to assign blame, but I do wonder if any good purpose follows the blood letting.

If the lessons resulting from the enquiry are heeded, then we will see a more co-ordinated response if, and i hope they do not, similar actions are required at a future date.

And to avoid taking this thread away from the Covid 19 question, I'll start a new thread about lessons to be learned in the BAr.

Go your hardest!

Tickford. · 12-10-2020, 06:34 PM

Despite scientific evidence that immunity from COVID is not possible, one man in the USA has stated he is now immune to COVID, and there's a "protective glow" around him.

Anyone know anything about this protective glow, and where it might be coming from?

**Polyal** · 12-10-2020, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Despite scientific evidence that immunity from COVID is not possible, one man in the USA has stated he is now immune to COVID, and there's a "protective glow" around him.

Anyone know anything about this protective glow, and where it might be coming from?

...its just embarrassing and I have no care whatsoever for any US politics.

EgoFG · 13-10-2020, 01:48 AM

The second wave analysis is interesting, but I wonder at its meaningfulness without more context.

A second wave where only symptomatic people are tested is different in meaning to a second wave where asymptomatic people are tested.
Also a second wave with no corresponding second wave in deaths (two weeks behind) or hospitalisations (half week behind), means something else.
And a second wave where there were strict lockdowns vss where there were minimal lockdowns.
A second wave where some individuals are tested more than once.

Perhaps you guys see my point - context.

T3rminator · 13-10-2020, 06:58 AM

Gents, don't be so cynical. Leading health expert, Dr Fauci, has endorsed him in an un-fabricated campaign video. True story.

Speaking of 2nd wave, has there been any other country in the world who has been able to "contain" a genuine 2nd wave as well as we have? Not talking about a NZ who had one or two cases pop up here and there, but say reaching 500+ new cases each day?

It's looking like it is out of control again in Europe. UK hospitalisation rates are rising again.

Sweden...now thinking about restrictions?

Mulva · 13-10-2020, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Despite scientific evidence that immunity from COVID is not possible, one man in the USA has stated he is now immune to COVID, and there's a "protective glow" around him.

Anyone know anything about this protective glow, and where it might be coming from?

Dunno. Could be coming from one of Pete Evan's special lamps, or could just be Le Tan

wodahs · 13-10-2020, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Gents, don't be so cynical. Leading health expert, Dr Fauci, has endorsed him in an un-fabricated campaign video. True story.

Speaking of 2nd wave, has there been any other country in the world who has been able to "contain" a genuine 2nd wave as well as we have? Not talking about a NZ who had one or two cases pop up here and there, but say reaching 500+ new cases each day?

It's looking like it is out of control again in Europe. UK hospitalisation rates are rising again.

Sweden...now thinking about restrictions?

i dont feel weve had a "second wave" as such and feel our "second wave" would come next winter
just my feeling

HIPO · 13-10-2020, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Despite scientific evidence that immunity from COVID is not possible, one man in the USA has stated he is now immune to COVID, and there's a "protective glow" around him.

Anyone know anything about this protective glow, and where it might be coming from?

Probs just a winning glow.... BTW, looking forwards to your reaction when he's re-elected for 4 more years!

**DJR-351** · 13-10-2020, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wodahs

i dont feel weve had a "second wave" as such and feel our "second wave" would come next winter
just my feeling

I agree, i don't think we had a 2nd wave i think it was more of a final spurt or last gasp of the first, having said that i don't believe suffering a 2nd wave is a given for every country either if we can learn and apply from the initial outbreak.....

2c's worth.........

wodahs · 13-10-2020, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJR-351

I agree, i don't think we had a 2nd wave i think it was more of a final spurt or last gasp of the first, having said that i don't believe suffering a 2nd wave is a given for every country either if we can learn and apply from the initial outbreak.....

2c's worth.........

as much as i agree , i feel being that unlike the northern hemisheir we will had our first run over our winter , and their second burst was in their first winter where we will have a longer time to be come lax about it by our next winter
ind is also hope our leaders would learn but not so faithfull

**russellw** · 13-10-2020, 11:41 AM

Data valid as at 23:55 GMT October 12th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

22 new cases for Australia and no deatha so the CMR drops to 3.292% while active cases increase to 1,376. NSW recorded 6; WA recorded 2 cases with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now back up to 11.29 with metro rising to 10.0 (13 unknown) and regional at 0.4 with no unknown cases. Victoria reported 12 new cases for the last 24 hours.

No new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.336% and active cases remain at 45.

The UK had 13,972 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 50 deaths.

Just over 42.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 325 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.749% and active cases drop to 33.1% with the raw numbers rising and now back over 2.6M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 36M, the last 1M taking 3 days;
Global cases set a new daily high of 368,555 (10/10);
The USA passes 8M cases;
The USA completes 119M, India 87M, Russia 51M, UK 27M and Spain 14M tests;
Europe recorded a new daily high of 116,575 (10/10);

Libya (1,109) and the Netherlands (6,845) both recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 13-10-2020, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

22 new cases for Australia and no deatha so the CMR drops to 3.292% while active cases increase to 1,376. NSW recorded 6; WA recorded 2 cases with the balance in Victoria.

Victoria reported 12 new cases for the last 24 hours.

Hey Russ, I may have missed the explanation for this, but it seems like your figures are not adding up? The first para implies Vic had 14 cases, but the second line states 12 cases. I noted this with yesterday's post, too.

Is this an error or a result of the reporting timeframes?

Edit. And I assume this is supposed to be in the 300,00 bracket, not millions?

Quote:

Global cases set a new daily high of 3698,555 (10/10);

**russellw** · 13-10-2020, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Hey Russ, I may have missed the explanation for this, but it seems like your figures are not adding up? The first para implies Vic had 14 cases, but the second line states 12 cases. I noted this with yesterday's post, too.

Is this an error or a result of the reporting timeframes?

Edit. And I assume this is supposed to be in the 300,00 bracket, not millions?

Fixed the European figure. The difference in the State numbers is that the first number (14) is the prior day reporting so that all the States are aligned whereas the second figure (12) is the one released at around 10:00 each day for the prior 24 hours.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 13-10-2020, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

Fixed the European figure. The difference in the State numbers is that the first number (14) is the prior day reporting so that all the States are aligned whereas the second figure (12) is the one released at around 10:00 each day for the prior 24 hours.

Cheers, Russ. Thought that the differing reporting times may have been the factor.