Covid 19 -

[Tickford.]

There was plenty of scientific and medical evidence back in June/July that said pre teens DO get infected, and CAN spread the virus. I also remember mentioning it in this thread back in July. See my post below.

https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?p=6460920


Who is giving Berejiklian this incorrect medical information? Is it NSW CHO Kerry Chant? Or is it Federal CHO Professor Paul Kelly? Is it the same person who gave the PM health advice?

The first two paragraphs from the Hopkins Medical article I linked previously states:

Can children get coronavirus?

Yes. Although in a majority of cases disease seems to be milder in young children, it’s important for parents and caregivers to understand that children can be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and can transmit it to others.

In rare cases, children can become very sick with COVID-19, and deaths have occurred. That’s why it is important to use precautions and prevent infection in children as well as adults.

[Work Horse]

All the best Northern Beaches and greater Sydney!

I recently sent this to one of my best mates in Dee Why.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXmpxYXrTrw

Sing along...

I close my eyes
And I'm still thinking of you,
Through the lonely year
We both been through.
I've been feeling so alone,
Back here baby without you home
There's a dream I wanna hold on to
I'm still dreaming
Of a Christmas
With you

There's so much love gonna carry us on,
So much trust
Even when you're gone
I'm so glad we stayed in love together
Separated by the storm
And like the storm rain finds the river
And the river finds the sea
I know you're coming back baby
Coming back to me
Cause I've been feeling so alone,
Back here baby without you home.
And there's a dream I wanna hold on too
I'm still dreaming of a Christmas with you

No more sounds of crying
There'll be laughter everywhere
I feel the seasons changing
No tear drops to fill the air
I know what Santa's gonna be bringing
And I hear the sleigh bells ringing
Bringing me what I really, really need
Bringing my baby back to me
Murray river won't seem so wide
Together we'll see the other side
I look across and I can't help but smile
My baby's coming home in a little while
By the riverbank arm in arm
Like that baby we'll head home
That's the dream I wanna hold on to
I'm dreaming of a Christmas with you

[mostly_broncos]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

There was plenty of scientific and medical evidence back in June/July that said pre teens DO get infected, and CAN spread the virus. I also remember mentioning it in this thread back in July. See my post below.

https://fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?p=6460920


Who is giving Berejiklian this incorrect medical information? Is it NSW CHO Kerry Chant? Or is it Federal CHO Professor Paul Kelly? Is it the same person who gave the PM health advice?

The first two paragraphs from the Hopkins Medical article I linked previously states:

Here where I live our kids are at school 50% of the time , basically 2 days in 3 days distance learning then the following week 3 days in 2 days distance . So at any time the school is half full.


No cases , in fact the biggest thing affecting in person learning is how much clout the teachers union has.



There are reports that one thing that might protect children is the MMR vaccine , apparently it might offer protection against the corona but it wears off as you age and adults don't get it here as a rule

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

Get right out there and be the one ahead of the curve

How is it ahead of the curve when you can be infected a second time? There have even been cases of people getting mild symptoms the first time and then dying from it the second time. You're putting yourself in harms way for no good reason.

[mostly_broncos]

Originally Posted by leesa

How is it ahead of the curve when you can be infected a second time? There have even been cases of people getting mild symptoms the first time and then dying from it the second time. You're putting yourself in harms way for no good reason.

Sure sure there are cases , out of what 18 million supposed cases 4 or 5 second infections? Is that statistically significant? We put ourselves in harms way every time we leave the house .

Maybe a piano will fall on my head and on the way to the hospital I will get hit by a truck , I suppose some people hit the lottery twice too , but thats not a valid retirement strategy


I'm not saying go seek it out , just that its there just a little bit and better to get in warm weather with an empty hospital . Plus , not stressing about yourself with this is a great weight off your shoulders. living in constant stress of an invisible enemy is exhausting.


You know there is a spectrum of people out there reacting to this , some sit home and try to wait it out and others go out and volunteer for vaccine trials . They take the fight to the enemy on his own patch of ground so their grandparents or their kids don't have to.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

living in constant stress of an invisible enemy is exhausting.

After dealing with this 'invisible enemy' for nearly a year, I guarantee to you that the only exhausting part is all the deniers holding the world back.
We would have been done with this months ago if people had actually jumped when asked and 180'd when evidence changed, because like it or not, that's the reality of science, your view needs to change if new evidence comes up.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

.....Hopkins Medical article I linked previously ...

I was disappointed in that article in that it offered opinion before facts - It did have some stats.
I recrunched some of these to see if Children actually suffer less harm than Adults (Stats alone cannot support the theory that Kids do or dont carny Covid-19 to others)

The numbers it stated seemed ok, but there was a nice study done by the American Academy of Pediatrics https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AA...20%20FINAL.pdf

Using these figures to give some context:

Children are 22.7% of the US population.
Children represent 10.0% of US Covid-19 cases
Children represent 1.73% of US Covid-19 hospitalisations
Children represent 0.065% of US Covid-19 deaths

Children have CMR of 0.000191 (0.0191% chance of mortality)
Compared to the population CMR 0.029284 for total US population (2.93%)
(I hope I got the orders of magnitude the same as Russ)

Based on these figures a child is half as likely to get diagnosed with Covid-19 and once diagnosed 1/200th as likely to die.

So a child is arguably 400 times as 'safe' as an average person.

For some random context:
Cleaning with Dettol is 1000 times as safe as not cleaning, because Dettol kills 99.9% of germs
Note: Kids are included in the total population, so a better comparison would make those figures more favourable

<opinion>
Kids = half as safe as Dettol
I would allow my kids to go to school based on that


I do find so many places use an alarmist attitude, evidently JH as well - it wears me out.
Maths relaxes me.

<\opinion>

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I was disappointed in that article in that it offered opinion before facts - It did have some stats.
I recrunched some of these to see if Children actually suffer less harm than Adults (Stats alone cannot support the theory that Kids do or dont carny Covid-19 to others)

The numbers it stated seemed ok, but there was a nice study done by the American Academy of Pediatrics https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AA...20%20FINAL.pdf

Using these figures to give some context:

Children are 22.7% of the US population.
Children represent 10.0% of US Covid-19 cases
Children represent 1.73% of US Covid-19 hospitalisations
Children represent 0.065% of US Covid-19 deaths

Children have CMR of 0.000191 (0.0191% chance of mortality)
Compared to the population CMR 0.029284 for total US population (2.93%)
(I hope I got the orders of magnitude the same as Russ)

Based on these figures a child is half as likely to get diagnosed with Covid-19 and once diagnosed 1/200th as likely to die.

So a child is arguably 400 times as 'safe' as an average person.

For some random context:
Cleaning with Dettol is 1000 times as safe as not cleaning, because Dettol kills 99.9% of germs
Note: Kids are included in the total population, so a better comparison would make those figures more favourable

&lt;opinion&gt;
Kids = half as safe as Dettol
I would allow my kids to go to school based on that


I do find so many places use an alarmist attitude, evidently JH as well - it wears me out.
Maths relaxes me.

&lt;\opinion&gt;

But can kids carry and transmit? I think that's key.

Apparently the UK strain (originally from Brazil) is infecting kids.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I was disappointed in that article in that it offered opinion before facts - It did have some stats.
I recrunched some of these to see if Children actually suffer less harm than Adults (Stats alone cannot support the theory that Kids do or dont carny Covid-19 to others)

The numbers it stated seemed ok, but there was a nice study done by the American Academy of Pediatrics https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AA...20%20FINAL.pdf

Using these figures to give some context:

Children are 22.7% of the US population.
Children represent 10.0% of US Covid-19 cases
Children represent 1.73% of US Covid-19 hospitalisations
Children represent 0.065% of US Covid-19 deaths

Children have CMR of 0.000191 (0.0191% chance of mortality)
Compared to the population CMR 0.029284 for total US population (2.93%)
(I hope I got the orders of magnitude the same as Russ)

Based on these figures a child is half as likely to get diagnosed with Covid-19 and once diagnosed 1/200th as likely to die.

So a child is arguably 400 times as 'safe' as an average person.

For some random context:
Cleaning with Dettol is 1000 times as safe as not cleaning, because Dettol kills 99.9% of germs
Note: Kids are included in the total population, so a better comparison would make those figures more favourable

<opinion>
Kids = half as safe as Dettol
I would allow my kids to go to school based on that


I do find so many places use an alarmist attitude, evidently JH as well - it wears me out.
Maths relaxes me.

<\opinion>

I think you have confused the mortality rate of those under 12 with the fact that they are just as infectious as the rest of the population...and that is the point....they spread the virus prolifically and due to schools inability to socially distance it makes it high risk to older people.

No need for maths on this one.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT December 23rd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

18 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 3.216%. NSW recorded 16 cases while Victoria and Queensland recorded 1 each.

7 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.175% and active cases 49.

The UK had a new record 39,237 cases yesterday and 744 deaths.

Just over 199k new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,456 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.771% and active cases at 39.7% with the raw numbers rising and now over 7.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 79M with the last 1M in 1 day;
Asia passes 20M cases;
Africa set a new daily high with 24,152 - the prior high on 24th July;
The USA completes 240M, India 164M, Turkey 23M and Kazakhstan 5M tests.

Uruguay (709) - 17% above the previous high;
Latvia (1,145);
Lebanon (2246) - the previous high on 6th November;
Lithuania (3,737);
Mexico (12,511);
South Africa (14,046) - the previous high on 24th July;
Colombia (14,233); and
UK (39,237)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[Tickford.]

Another more deadly strain has been found in the UK. This one more transmissible than the strain found to be from Brazil, which was said to be 70% more transmissible.




How effective will the Pfizer and/or the Moderna vaccine be with these two new mutated strains?

[au350hp]

Unfortunately, on a global scale, 2021 is going to be much worse than anything we have seen so far. The way I see it, the biggest threat to our country is overseas people & incoming freight. If we see more situations such as Flight Crews or Seamen being ferried back and forth by drivers without P.P.E, or situations like Northern Beaches. Self entitlement is a big problem, as we have seen these people that are ill but still go out to eat, drink, shop, gym etc.... Economy wise, businesses relying on overseas manufacturing will continue to be affected and I believe that problem may get worse. It amazes me that other countries leaders have not introduced the changes that are proven, controlling movement, masks etc. My biggest gripe besides politicians using this as a popularity contest, is the lack of military involvement. The Australian Defence Force eat this sort of stuff for breakfast. They would be perfect for every task that has been dumped in the Police's hands, especially the quarantine hotels and road blocks.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Another more deadly strain has been found in the UK. This one more transmissible than the strain found to be from Brazil, which was said to be 70% more transmissible.




How effective will the Pfizer and/or the Moderna vaccine be with these two new mutated strains?

It almost appears they are making these "discoveries" to deflect some attention away from the complete mismanagement of CV19 over there. Just last wednesday the gov OKed families to have Christmas gatherings with 3 other households, then on the Satday they did a complete U turn.

Even as far back as Feb, we knew there were different strains, and virologists could already associate certain strains with specific countries. What makes these two so news worthy all of a sudden, and within the last week?
How do these compare to the strains in the US, which seem pretty infectious to me!? How do you determine if something is 70% more infectious? Based on case numbers? If so, is it infecting more because of the strain or because of the lack of control?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Roostercam

The Australian Defence Force eat this sort of stuff for breakfast. They would be perfect for every task that has been dumped in the Police's hands, especially the quarantine hotels and road blocks.

On one hand I think the ADF should be kept as far away from this virus as possible. But it appears they are being very selective on where, when and how help is given.

The reluctance of the ADF to help with QLD and VIC border patrol astounds me. Unless there is something happening in the background that requires more priority that we don't know about. In comparison, a huge amount of ADF resources were deployed to man the NSW border during Vic's outbreak. And before anyone harps on about the low numbers, remember Vic had that ring of steel around metro melb, so the regional areas were almost covid free.

"After four million vehicle checks at points on the NSW-Victoria border, Joint Task Unit 629.1.3 finished its part in Operation COVID-19 Assist on October 30.

More than 1200 ADF members from Army, Navy and Air Force – including reservists – served for a combined total of 41,000 ADF days at 20 checkpoints on the border operation.

They deployed to points stretching from the sea to the desert."

https://news.defence.gov.au/national...tion-comes-end

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The reluctance of the ADF to help with QLD and VIC border patrol astounds me. Unless there is something happening in the background that requires more priority that we don't know about.

I know that at this time of year the defence like to transfer a lot of it's people.

Anyone who lives close to an Army/Navy/Airforce base would notice the influx of furniture removalists in Dec. Although it may be more noticeable here as we have both Army and Air bases nearby.

[Tickford.]

ADF stated it will only provide support "for logistics, contact tracing and hotel quarantine", as border closures are a state issue. Not a National/Federal issue.

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds explained a couple of days ago that the reason to only provide only 50 ADF personnel to VIC (300 was requested) is due to "getting ready for the high risk weather season."

https://www.facebook.com/Sunrise/vid...13325969181137

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

On one hand I think the ADF should be kept as far away from this virus as possible. But it appears they are being very selective on where, when and how help is given.

The reluctance of the ADF to help with QLD and VIC border patrol astounds me. Unless there is something happening in the background that requires more priority that we don't know about. In comparison, a huge amount of ADF resources were deployed to man the NSW border during Vic's outbreak. And before anyone harps on about the low numbers, remember Vic had that ring of steel around metro melb, so the regional areas were almost covid free.

"After four million vehicle checks at points on the NSW-Victoria border, Joint Task Unit 629.1.3 finished its part in Operation COVID-19 Assist on October 30.

More than 1200 ADF members from Army, Navy and Air Force – including reservists – served for a combined total of 41,000 ADF days at 20 checkpoints on the border operation.

They deployed to points stretching from the sea to the desert."

https://news.defence.gov.au/national...tion-comes-end

The states have Covid19 mostly under control so for the need of the ADF is really not necessarily required. States can you use their own police and SES people.
ADF should only be used as last resort stop gap measure imo.

[buggerlugs]

Why, in the middle of a pandemic is this woman so keen to have Fireworks ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...-2021/13012864

[cs123]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Why, in the middle of a pandemic is this woman so keen to have Fireworks ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...-2021/13012864

Because ...no refunds on the fireworks ????

It's got me stuffed too. But pretty ballsy of them to have that sort of confidence.

[Citroënbender]

Last year there were strong calls to defer the fireworks as it was considered “tone deaf” respective to the raging bushfires. Lady Moore, Sydney’s Mayor-for-Life, was unsympathetic to the pleas.

I think there could be a bit of antagonism occurring this time.

[AlanD]

I think it is the season of good cheer, so:

Merry Christmas everyone.

And while many of us would prefer to forget 2020, we might reflect that in the face of adversity, we fared better than most communities, mostly because the majority of us heeded the scientific advice, masked up, kept 1.5m distance from others and only travelled when essential.

May 2021 be a much better year. Inoculations may make it less fraught with dangers from virus unseen.

If you are able to, may you all enjoy time with friends, family and those you love.

Keep well and virus free.

[mostly_broncos]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Why, in the middle of a pandemic is this woman so keen to have Fireworks ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...-2021/13012864

7 people with the sniffles shouldn't cancel the fireworks

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Why, in the middle of a pandemic is this woman so keen to have Fireworks ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...-2021/13012864

Why not! it has been a very daunting year with state governments cancelling lot of events, It would be nice to see some normality for once despite what has been happening with this damn covid19.

Cheers.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

7 people with the sniffles shouldn't cancel the fireworks

Originally Posted by Officemanager

Why not! it has been a very daunting year with state governments cancelling lot of events, It would be nice to see some normality for once despite what has been happening with this damn covid19.

Cheers.

It will be nice to see some normality... Once normality ensues...

[prydey]

Originally Posted by AlanD

I think it is the season of good cheer, so:

Merry Christmas everyone.

And while many of us would prefer to forget 2020, we might reflect that in the face of adversity, we fared better than most communities, mostly because the majority of us heeded the scientific advice, masked up, kept 1.5m distance from others and only travelled when essential.

May 2021 be a much better year. Inoculations may make it less fraught with dangers from virus unseen.

If you are able to, may you all enjoy time with friends, family and those you love.

Keep well and virus free.

The bolded bit is a bit 'rose coloured glasses' for mine. Personally I think it is mostly to do with being a small island and having a small population (relatively speaking) and being fairly spread out (again, relatively speaking). Same with nz and most other small islands where it's easy to shut down the borders.

Human nature is the same regardless of location. Anyone who thinks the virus hasn't taken hold here like it has in Europe and USA due to different human behaviour is very naive.

We should just be thankful we are a small island but sooner or later we have to open the international borders back up.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

But can kids carry and transmit? I think that's key. ...

Actually this is a bigger question, can someone who is not positive carry ?
This is not limited to kids.


If I powerwash the kids on the way into the house, is that enough ?
Can I do the same with my mate who had it in March ?



I makes sense that infected kids can carry, but have half the chance of being infected, so half the chance of carrying.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by zilo

I think you have confused the mortality rate of those under 12 with the fact that they are just as infectious as the rest of the population ....

I just gave some figures on whether kids were safe themselves or not. My opinion is that they are, I cold understand others drawing a different conclusion.


"Can Kids infect others"... is beyond any science I have available right now ... there was an early Australian study I believe



Note: I should have said "(These Stats ..."

Originally Posted by EgoFG

(Stats alone cannot support the theory that Kids do or dont carny Covid-19 to others)

[Citroënbender]

I’ve just seen a straw poll on the Nine News site that has 76% of respondents opposed to the Sydney NYE fireworks. Shame it doesn’t analyse the responses by where they originate.

Great to see the testing centres open on Christmas Day. It gives the introverts a legitimate excuse to avoid events and more flexibility to others who have perhaps been putting off a test.

Big thumbs-up to the NT for a nimble bureaucracy with respect to NSW residents, too.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

Why not! it has been a very daunting year with state governments cancelling lot of events, It would be nice to see some normality for once despite what has been happening with this damn covid19.

Cheers.

For sure, lets get 100 or 200 thousand people in close proximity to each other. What could possibly go wrong.............

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 24th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

25 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 3.213%. NSW recorded 18 cases, SA, NT and Queensland recorded 2 each and WA recorded 1.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.175% and active cases 49.

The UK had 39,036 cases yesterday and 574 deaths.

Just over 233.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,413 deaths sees CMR drop to 1.767% and active cases at 39.6% with the raw numbers rising and now over 7.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA passes 19M cases;
Italy passes 2M cases;
Europe passes 22M cases;
Africa set a new daily high with 26,449;
The USA completes 241M, India 165M, Russia 87M, UK 52M, Germany 33M, France 32M, Brazil 28M and Kazakhstan 5M tests.

Namibia (595);
Uruguay (747);
Latvia (1,270);
Lebanon (2,708) - 21% above the high yesterday;
Panama (3,413) - 16% above the previous high;
Lithuania (3,799);
South Africa (14,305);
Colombia (14,940);
Russia (29,935)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.