Covid 19 -

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by tweeked

That sounds like the statisticians or medical experts have found a great way of muddying the waters and confusing people.

No one in the general population cares about what the death rate is for different "case" definitions. They just want to know what the chances are if they test positive. That is so simple and in the end all that matters.

Death isnt all people are concerned about, while obviously its not a good outcome severe ongoing issues are pretty top of the list too. Time will tell.

Its been noted before that if CV gave you spots on the face peoples opinions would be very different as a general rule.

[tweeked]

All the more reason for the stats to be presented in a way that does not at first glance overestimate the effect. Death rate or permanent damage rate should be presented in the same way. Making it sound like 78% of near 30000 Australians that tested positive now have damaged hearts is just irresponsible.

Using some "medicalese" that says "you don't know the difference between a case and a case" smacks of medical arrogance.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT January 6th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

13 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.185%. NSW recorded 5 cases, WA / Victoria 3 each, Queensland / SA recorded 1 case each.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.141% and active cases 61.

The UK had a new record 62,022 cases yesterday and 1,041 deaths.

Just over 233.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,736 deaths sees CMR fall to 1.695% and active cases at 38.7% with the raw numbers rising and now at 8.3M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 87M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Africa records a new daily high with 34,872 cases, a 14% increase;
South America records a new daily high with 102,442 cases, the previous high back on July 7th;
The USA completes 263M and India 177M tests.

Malta (224);
Norway (787);
Uruguay (944) - 26% above the previous high;
Nigeria (1,664) - 23% above the high yesterday;
UAE (2,067);
Malaysia (2,593);
Tunisia (2,820);
Slovenia (3,354) - 28% above the previous high in October;
Lebanon (4,166) 15% above the high yesterday;
Japan (4,357);
Ireland (7,832) - 28% above the previous high;
Indonesia (8,854);
Portugal (10,027) - 31% above the previous high;
Czechia (17,278);
South Africa (21,832) - 21% above the previous high; and
the United Kingdom (62,022)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Citroënbender]

So… While the experts are most likely experting on other matters, and without intent of stirring up inter-state friction…

What are the goals of Victoria and New South Wales in relation to the current outbreaks and management thereof (including border restrictions)? I don’t recall reading clear detail on this.

[FairmontGS]

Coronavirus Australia live: Queensland records first case in 113 days

A worker at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane has tested positive for coronavirus overnight - breaking the Queensland's 113-day run without a local case.

Workers are allowed to be out in the Queensland community and contact tracing is underway. Queensland’s Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young has urged anyone in Sunnybank Hills, Calamvale and Algester to get tested if they have symptoms.

She was infectious from January 2, and was out and about in Brisbane until January 6.

https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...3616ae276b810d

Put up the borders!

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

So… While the experts are most likely experting on other matters, and without intent of stirring up inter-state friction…

What are the goals of Victoria and New South Wales in relation to the current outbreaks and management thereof (including border restrictions)? I don’t recall reading clear detail on this.

I am not sure, but VIC classifying all of NSW a zone is out of control and we need a national stance on this.

We can not close off borders at a drop of a hat for a handful of cases.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by tweeked

That sounds like the statisticians or medical experts have found a great way of muddying the waters and confusing people.

It sounds to me like people are easily confused by a simple concept. Didn't we learn that viruses cause diseases decades ago? It's like how you get AIDS by being exposed to the virus, HIV. AIDS is not HIV. HIV causes AIDS.
The hint is also in the name 'COVID', COrona VIrus Disease. The reason the case figures are so bloated is because you can test positive for virus inoculation, but there's no nasal swab which tells you that you've contracted the disease.

Not everything is a conspiracy against you by statisticians and medical experts....

[Citroënbender]

I’m somewhat impressed by the “clowning” aspect of full-body PPE displayed by a few cricket-goers. It carries more authenticity in terms of saying we’re all in it together than politicians without masks on, telling us we’ll be fined for not wearing masks.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I am not sure, but VIC classifying all of NSW a zone is out of control and we need a national stance on this.

We can not close off borders at a drop of a hat for a handful of cases.

Funny, NSW did that to all of Victoria for months, country Victoria didn't have cases either.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I am not sure, but VIC classifying all of NSW a zone is out of control and we need a national stance on this.

We can not close off borders at a drop of a hat for a handful of cases.

It says more about their confidence (or lack thereof) in the contact tracing space. Given what they endured most of last year, I don't blame them.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Because people are greatly misinterpreting a 'case' as somebody who has contracted the disease.
Getting covid and getting coronavirus are two different things.

I'm not quite picking up what you are putting down.

The tests aren't generic. They test for specific triggers for covid, not just any coronavirus.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'm not quite picking up what you are putting down.

The tests aren't generic. They test for specific triggers for covid, not just any coronavirus.

Yes, they test for the specific strain of coronavirus which causes covid. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 does not necessarily indicate the contraction of the disease. The symptoms which usually follow inoculation of the virus are normally your immune system fighting off infection and are not necessarily symptoms of the disease.

This is where so many of the figures seem contradictory or overstated, because they're usually two different figures. And not understanding this is usually why people are so quick to call BS on research showing that 78% of covid patients have myocardial involvement. Because they think that means that 78% of the UK's 60k positive tests for coronavirus can expect some kind of heart issues.

As for how many of those cases of positive coronavirus inoculations result in patients contracting covid? We probably won't know those numbers for another few years just like how we don't find out the real figures for the flu until years later.

[FairmontGS]

Live: Brisbane aged care sector goes into lockdown over hotel cleaner's positive case

A Brisbane cleaner who worked in a quarantine hotel has the highly infectious UK variant of COVID-19, prompting a lockdown of the aged care sector across the greater Brisbane area.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...a-qld/13037510

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

So… While the experts are most likely experting on other matters, and without intent of stirring up inter-state friction…

What are the goals of Victoria and New South Wales in relation to the current outbreaks and management thereof (including border restrictions)? I don’t recall reading clear detail on this.

I think Vic said "covid normal" would be rolling 14 day average below 5 with NO mystery cases. But now that we've had one mystery case, there hasn't seem to be any changes?

Originally Posted by Polyal

I am not sure, but VIC classifying all of NSW a zone is out of control and we need a national stance on this.

We can not close off borders at a drop of a hat for a handful of cases.

The handling of outbreaks has been too politicised now, so I doubt we will get a national stance.

IMHO closing the border was necessary given the volume of people that cross over between NSW and VIC, AND the circumstances of NSW's "handful" of cases i.e. patient zero not identified, no restrictions on at risk greater sydney travelling to other parts of NSW, mystery cases popping up, unlinked cases 100km+ away from the original outbreak, no mask enforcement despite health advice, relaxing gatherings for Christmas period. I have no issues with NSW taking the risk within their own jurisdiction, but no lecturing when other states don't fully trust the strategy. When you start getting 100-200+ cases a day, even a platinum contact tracing standard is going to struggle.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Yes, they test for the specific strain of coronavirus which causes covid. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 does not necessarily indicate the contraction of the disease. The symptoms which usually follow inoculation of the virus are normally your immune system fighting off infection and are not necessarily symptoms of the disease.

This is where so many of the figures seem contradictory or overstated, because they're usually two different figures. And not understanding this is usually why people are so quick to call BS on research showing that 78% of covid patients have myocardial involvement. Because they think that means that 78% of the UK's 60k positive tests for coronavirus can expect some kind of heart issues.

As for how many of those cases of positive coronavirus inoculations result in patients contracting covid? We probably won't know those numbers for another few years just like how we don't find out the real figures for the flu until years later.

Wow...you made me look that up. Spot on. Never knew that!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...that-causes-it

So these PCR tests that people are taking, is it to test for SARS-CoV-2 or Covid 19?

[Nu66et]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

When you start getting 100-200+ cases a day, even a platinum contact tracing standard is going to struggle.

NSW health claimed middle of last year the contact tracing capacity was in the region of 100-120 cases over 5 days, which at the time they were very marginal on. I'm not sure where the capacity stands now, but it would be well short of 100-200 a day.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

You're AFF's Kim jong un!

KJU?? Of all people, that's the best you can come up with?


BTW.., I see that you were at Capital Hill this morning. Nice headgear buddy. Very nice. Going by your avatar also, you've got a bit of a "furry fetish" aye?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

KJU?? Of all people, that's the best you can come up with?


BTW.., I see that you were at Capital Hill this morning. Nice headgear buddy. Very nice. Going by your avatar also, you've got a bit of a "furry fetish" aye?

image

Good to see you back. I was worried you’d been banned.



https://youtu.be/KCkmIyC6v00

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Wow...you made me look that up. Spot on. Never knew that!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...that-causes-it

So these PCR tests that people are taking, is it to test for SARS-CoV-2 or Covid 19?

Thanks for looking it up :P
The tests are looking for the presence of the virus genetic material, so they can't actually tell you if 'have covid'. That's usually confirmed by a symptom which isn't typically a part of the immune response. So you could have a cough, runny nose, fever, etc. and they still wouldn't call it 'covid' (because these are all usual signs of the immune system fighting off the infection).
The symptoms they would really be looking out for are the loss of taste and smell, or conjunctivitis (remember, one of the theories at the start of 2020 was that it was transmitted through your eye) because these aren't usual immune responses.

But, as has come up a few times in this thread, they have enough on their plate as it is to go back and check the 80 million confirmed coronavirus infection cases to find out which ones were covid-19 cases. The only way to really confirm the mild cases would be to cMRI scan patients, which is far too expensive.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Funny, NSW did that to all of Victoria for months, country Victoria didn't have cases either.

Stop with the facts will ya.

NSW failing to contain the NSW virus, not only in their own state, but spreading it to other states... but it's VIC's "lack of confidence in contact tracing" that has seen the border closed to the virus state.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Stop with the facts will ya.

NSW failing to contain the NSW virus, not only in their own state, but spreading it to other states... but it's VIC's "lack of confidence in contact tracing" that has seen the border closed to the virus state.

Victoria's mystery case linked to NSW northern beaches outbreak
By Rachael Dexter
"Victoria's single mystery case has been genomically linked to the NSW northern beaches outbreak, Victoria's Health department has confirmed.

The development rules out fears of another strain of COVID-19 circulating in Victoria, although where and how the man, who is in his 30s, caught the virus is still unknown.

Health authorities are still calling for anyone who attended stores at the Chadstone Shopping Centre on 26 December from 6am to 1.30pm, or who went to the MCG for day two of the Boxing Day Test on 27 December, to come forward for testing.

The health department is still warning the mystery case may have picked up the virus at either of these two locations, and are hunting for the source."

So whoever passed it onto this bloke could still be roaming around sharing the NSW love.

[Citroënbender]

From the news pages of Aunty:

After genomic sequencing confirmed the diagnosis, the [WA] Premier's office issued a statement saying it would wait for more information before making a decision on WA's border with Queensland.

Interesting, I never realised WA and Queensland shared a border.

More locally to me:

NSW nursing homes are allowed to have visitors again as of tomorrow.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Stop with the facts will ya.

but it's VIC's "lack of confidence in contact tracing" that has seen the border closed to the virus state.

Is this a fact or your opinion?

I haven't heard anything about that being the reason, but it was due to the case levels late December, which is very different to contact tracing, which seems to have been excellent.

I agree with the border being closed when it was by the way.

[FairmontGS]

Three-day lockdown imposed on Greater Brisbane to stop spread of mutant COVID strain

From 6:00pm tonight people living in Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton and Redlands will be required to stay home until 6:00pm Monday in a bid to stop the spread of the highly-infectious United Kingdom strain of the virus.

Queensland records 9 new COVID-19 cases. There were more than 13,000 tests.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...train/13040436

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Is this a fact or your opinion?

I haven't heard anything about that being the reason, but it was due to the case levels late December, which is very different to contact tracing, which seems to have been excellent.

I agree with the border being closed when it was by the way.

I think you'll find its sarcasm Unless you've been following the tennis match you'll likely miss it.

[Polyal]

People in Brissy panic buying for a 3 day lockdown...LOL

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

People in Brissy panic buying for a 3 day lockdown...LOL

Well at least good to see they are planning to stay and isolate Mate in brissy has already started the drive down to the gold coast for the weekend

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT January 7th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

10 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.184%. NSW recorded 6 cases, WA / Queensland, 2 each and the NT recorded 1 case.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.143% and active cases 62.

The UK had 52,618 cases yesterday and 1,162 deaths.

Just under 271k new cases in the USA yesterday and a new record high 4,131 deaths sees CMR fall to 1.693% and active cases at 38.7% with the raw numbers rising and now at 8.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 88M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Global cases set a new daily high of 803,381 (6/1) - 50k above the previous high;
Global deaths pass 1.9M, the last 50k in 4 days;
The USA passes 22M cases;
Europe passes 25M cases;
North America passes 25M cases;
Brazil passes 200k deaths;
Africa records a new daily high with 35,241 cases;
South America records a new daily high with 129,364 cases;
North America records a new daily high with 289,811 cases;
The USA completes 265M, India 178M, UK 58M, Germany 35M, Denmark 11M and Georgia 2M tests.

Norway (825);
Estonia (1,104);
UAE (2,988) - 45% above the high yesterday;
Malaysia (3,027) - 17% above the high yesterday;
Lebanon (4,774) 15% above the high yesterday (again);
Japan (6,076) - 39% above the high yesterday;
Panama (5,186) on 6/1;
Indonesia (9,321);
Mexico (13,345);
Czechia (17,688);
Colombia (17,576); and
Brazil (87,134) - 23% above the previous high on July 29;

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Well at least good to see they are planning to stay and isolate Mate in brissy has already started the drive down to the gold coast for the weekend

The shops will still be open.

QUEENSLANDER!

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

It sounds to me like people are easily confused by a simple concept. Didn't we learn that viruses cause diseases decades ago? It's like how you get AIDS by being exposed to the virus, HIV. AIDS is not HIV. HIV causes AIDS.
The hint is also in the name 'COVID', COrona VIrus Disease. The reason the case figures are so bloated is because you can test positive for virus inoculation, but there's no nasal swab which tells you that you've contracted the disease.

Not everything is a conspiracy against you by statisticians and medical experts....

And yet tracking sites including government are called "Covid Live" or refer to Covid-19 all the time.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infect...nd-alerts.aspx

No I didn't think it was a conspiracy, just lazy health professionals, government departments and googlers on this page. But you think they have made it clear to to masses? ........ Near enough is good enough for you is it? Maybe instead of being condescending you might provide a bit of "peer review", sounds like you know what you are talking about.......and since you are a bit touchy on anyone questioning the way data is presented, you may be able to help and correct the wrong terminology being used in important places.