Peak Oil, diesel first to go?

[marty351]

Originally Posted by mike_nofx

So maybe... wipe out the entire Middle East?
It would reduce population and give us free access to large oil supplies.

"sensible and sustainable" depopulation.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Just got back from working at Barrow Island. The Gorgan and Janske basins have enough gas and oil reserves for the next 50 years. Chevron have entered and arrangement with Woodside regarding other gas and oil fields in the Northwest. Peak oil? It's alarmist language from the climate change fraud peddlers and the NWO.

BTW, France isn't protesting about fuel tax. They're protesting about the take over of their country by the EU and globalists. I see a European Spring upon us. People have had enough of the LGBTI, politically correct and NWO narratives.

From the Al Jazeera link -

"It all started on November 17 when tens of thousands of people took to the streets across the country to protest against rising fuel prices."

"They were angry about the almost 20 percent increase in the price of diesel since the start of the year, as well as the planned fuel tax hike President Emmanuel Macron had recently announced."

"Macron said the tax was necessary to "protect the environment" and "combat climate change", protesters claimed the decision was yet another sign that the "arrogant" and "privileged" president is out of touch with regular folk struggling to make ends meet."

"The intensity of the protests quickly forced the government to make a U-turn and first suspend and later permanently shelve its plans for fuel tax increases. However, the protest movement was not only about fuel prices. It encompassed wider anger and frustration against the political establishment in general and President Macron in particular. As a result, the government's decision to abandon fuel tax hikes failed to calm tensions."

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/op...083636240.html

cheers, Maka

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Then what will we do when we reach peak energy consumption and we have black outs?

EV's just introduce new problems cause our pollies don't have the balls to build new power plants.

There is more then enough renewable to power Australia many times over and cost have come down so much investments funds worldwide are investing in massive amounts. An investment in a solar farm can provide locked in solid returns over 20 + years.

The issue is going to be the cost of energy storage.... which will be solved when the world produces massive amounts of batteries which they are now starting to do.

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by Eaturbo

Yes we are running out of oil. Well if you consider that we only have so much oil and we are using it an an ever increasing rate. There has to come a point when we will need more then can be found. Its not like we can produce or wait for another million years for more to form.

Mate peak oil supply has already been debunked...

Peak oil demand is now estimated sometime before 2030 as demand starts falling as renewables costs keep falling.

Its cheaper for many third world countries to go solar and wind then oil and coal.

[Vesper Martini]

What sort of car do you drive Kmav23?

[Maka]

Referring to renewables in this thread is a bit off topic imo, i respectfully ask members not to go there in this thread anymore, please start your own thread on the subject ok.

Diesel production falls, diesel price hikes in general & the possible excuse (according to the authors of the link i provided in the o/p) of climate change instead of just saying market forces are at play for rising diesel fuel prices (beause of a loss in diesel fuel production) is what this thread is about & the possibility of the same happening here in Oz in the future.

Please read the link in o/p, its a thought provoking read & perhaps may possibly enlighten us for what could be in store for the future.

cheers, Maka

[Sprintey]

& back on topic, here's Monash turning plastic into diesel fuel:

https://lens.monash.edu/2018/06/05/1...stic-into-fuel

heaps of links all over the web of people breaking down the plastic into fuel. This also avoids plastic accumulating in our oceans as it runs off, and this is a massive problem at the moment. All those milk containers, I read each one has 1/4L fuel in it...

[roKWiz]

Diesels the first to go ??
What price are you prepared to pay for your petrol, groceries, a boat ride, a bus ride, a train ride. (for those of us living outside the city walls)

[Sprintey]

It seems one of my favourite energy analysts, SRSRocco, has picked up the story:

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-...snt-look-good/

He's a bit more succinct than I was explaining the original article:

"The article provides some sobering data suggesting that the global production of diesel fuel may have peaked.

Furthermore, due to the peak of conventional oil in 2005 and the considerable increase of U.S. shale light tight oil, the production of heavy fuel oil (not diesel, rather bunker fuel for ships, etc.) has also declined. Turiel explains in the article The Peak of the Diesel: 2018 Edition, that the refineries cannot make as much diesel from the U.S. light tight shale oil, so they are forced to crack the heavier fuel oil to make diesel. If true, what we have here is the cannibalization of the refinery system to continue to produce diesel at the expense of the heavier fuel oils.

If Peak Diesel has arrived, Peak Gasoline isn’t too far behind."

[Sprintey]

A bit of a note on him, he's consistent in his message, and explains it won't be 'peak oil' per se that makes life difficult into the future. It will be peak 'EROEI'.
Energy Returned On Energy Invested.

For eg, in my grandfather's day when he helped open the giant Venezuelan fields, you might put in 1 unit of energy and get 100 fold return of energy from the oil. This is because it was light, 'sweet' crude that was easy to crack.

Today, you might put in 1 unit of energy, but only get 5 units in return.

SRSRocco argues that a complex society depends upon a high EROEI, and measures how it is falling.




** As a postscript, we are all petrolheads here, and mostly Ford fans. It was Henry Ford who pioneered affordable transport, and affordable performance, for most people. He was also a massive ethanol fan, and on a Model T (iirc) you could adjust the timing of the motor manually from the dash to drive on different fuels. It was Henry's vision that the farmers of America would run on ethanol they produced themselves, in their Fords. This would mean they did not pay a conglomerate for transport, and enabled them to keep and grow the wealth their work and land produced. Independence.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by kmav23

There is more then enough renewable to power Australia many times over and cost have come down so much investments funds worldwide are investing in massive amounts. An investment in a solar farm can provide locked in solid returns over 20 + years.

The issue is going to be the cost of energy storage.... which will be solved when the world produces massive amounts of batteries which they are now starting to do.

So just move the pollution from the coal plants to the mines raping the earth for lithium etc.

Love how greenies turn a blind eye from this.

[Sprintey]

Edit to above, Venezuela is a heavy oil and requires extra refining, not light as I posted before. Saudi is light.

[csv8]

Hilux might become diesel only. Toyota wouldn't do that if there was no future in diesel. https://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/n...cid=spartandhp

[zipping]

The federal government has discovered a massive new reserve of oil and natural gas in Texas and New Mexico that it says has the “largest continuous oil and gas resource potential ever assessed.”

“Christmas came a few weeks early this year,” Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke said of the new reserve, which is believed to have enough energy to fuel the U.S. for nearly seven years.

In all, the new reserve is said to contain 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 46.3 billion barrels of oil, and 20 billion barrels of natural-gas liquids, the Interior Department’s U.S. Geological Survey said.

Almost a third of the U.S.’s total crude-oil production comes from the Permian Basin where the reserve was found, making it the biggest shale-oil-producing region in the U.S.

“American strength flows from American energy, and as it turns out, we have a lot of American energy,” said Zinke. “Before this assessment came down, I was bullish on oil and gas production in the United States. Now, I know for a fact that American energy dominance is within our grasp as a nation.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...ve-in-history/

Remember when America’s political class fretted about “peak oil” and dependence on foreign energy? So much for that. The U.S. the other week for the first time in 75 years became a net petroleum exporter as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wrangled over how to respond to America’s growing energy bounty.

U.S. crude production has surged 20% in a year and nearly tripled in a decade thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. American output is rising at the fastest rate in a century. Earlier this year the U.S. eclipsed Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.

For nearly six decades OPEC has dominated oil markets by setting production quotas among its 15 members. In late 2014, OPEC flooded the market with oil in an effort to break U.S. drillers who were burning cash on mounds of debt. As oil prices fell below $40 a barrel in 2015-2016, many wildcatters folded or were absorbed by larger producers.

But the survivors became more efficient. Technology—including drones with thermal imaging to detect leaks along with improvements in horizontal drilling—boosted productivity. Over the last five years production per rig has more than tripled in the Permian Basin and quadrupled in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale. While the Bakken rig count has fallen by 70%, output has increased by a third.

Most American oil refineries have processed heavier crudes, which depressed prices for lighter, sweeter grades produced in the new wells. But in late 2015 the GOP Congress expanded shale-oil’s market by lifting the export ban on crude in return for Barack Obama’s demand to extend renewable energy tax credits. U.S. crude exports have since soared to 3.2 million barrels a day.

Many U.S. producers say they can turn a profit at $50 a barrel and even as low as $30 in the Permian’s most productive regions. Yet most OPEC members need prices ranging between $70 and $90 per barrel to balance their budgets. The cartel scaled back output in 2016, but shale producers roared back as prices recovered. America’s shale gusher has presented a quandary for OPEC and especially its largest member, Saudi Arabia, which faces large budget deficits as it works to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Earlier this year, the Saudis obliged President Trump by increasing output to prevent prices from soaring with the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran. Even so oil prices hit a four-year high in early October. But they have since declined 30% amid weakening world economic forecasts, sanctions exemptions and surging U.S. production.

OPEC and Russia last week agreed to scale back production collectively by 1.2 million barrels a day, but the meeting exposed the cartel’s cracks. Qatar quit amid hostilities with the Saudis. Small producers carped they were too insignificant to affect global supply. Algeria produces one million barrels per day, which is as much as U.S. output has increased in five months.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and allied producers agreed to shoulder the bulk of the cuts while Libya, Iran and Venezuela received exemptions. Some in the media claim the Saudis defied Mr. Trump’s pleas to keep oil prices low, yet U.S. shale producers are likely to benefit from OPEC’s cuts by capturing more market share.

One of the biggest constraints on U.S. production has been a distribution bottleneck. Hence West Texas Intermediate now sells at a $8 to $9 discount to Brent crude on the world market. But next year three pipelines capable of delivering two million barrels of Permian crude to the Gulf Coast are expected to come online. In 2020 two more pipelines that can carry two million barrels a day are expected to be completed.

Oil companies are also racing to build more export terminals to handle the supply gusher, which isn’t likely to stop anytime soon. The U.S. Geological Survey reported recently that the Permian’s Delaware Basin holds more than twice as much oil and 18 times as much natural gas as the heavier-drilled Midland region.
***

Barack Obama, hilariously, is now claiming credit for the shale boom. “You know that whole suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer . . . that was me, people,” he said last month at Rice University. But drilling leases on federal land declined 28% during his two terms amid new restrictions on land use. Drilling skyrocketed on private land, despite attempts by his regulators to block pipelines, slow down approvals, and impose higher costs on production.

The Trump Administration is expediting pipeline and terminal permitting and opening new federal land to drilling. Last year’s tax reform unlocked Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The Interior Department recently scaled back needless Obama protections for the sage grouse, which will allow drilling on nine million acres in oil-rich states. Leases are being snapped up at auction, even in areas where recoveries are now low and expensive. As technology advances, many investors expect the break-even price of production to fall.

Politicians in the past have sought to secure American energy independence with price controls, ethanol mandates and the oil export ban. But they and OPEC should note that America owes its new energy prosperity to industry innovation, private property, and the free market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ame...ec-11544831785

In my previous post earlier actually meant Silver for Solar panels, copper is a substitute but not as efficient

[jpd80]

The American situation is interesting, the more OPEC tries to dry up supply and jack up prices,
the more it encourages the US to use of it own resources and keep more money in the US.

Either way, the Saudis are on a hiding to nothing trying to force smaller nations to cut supply,
they need all the revenue they can get. The Americans are ready for OPEC this time around.

[Bossxr8]

It's awesome that OPEC can no longer do whatever they want and bleed the world dry. Competition from the US is only going to keep oil prices affordable.

[aussie muscle]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Same old, same old mate. The 'Peak Oil' alarmists told us we were going to run out 20 years ago.

I'm not too concerned. Just a few more diesel haters having a sook.

Meh!

That's not what 'Peak Oil' means. Peak oil means maximum possible production has been reached. It doesn't mean end of production.

We've found all the 'easy' reserves, so any new wells will be more difficult to extract shale oil and more remote places, making production more expensive (ie less profits for oil companies).

[zipping]

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

That's not what 'Peak Oil' means. Peak oil means maximum possible production has been reached. It doesn't mean end of production.

Actually, you are both right.

Here is Hubbert with his diagrams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY

His theory clearly show once "peak" has hit oil runs out quick.

"Peak (Hubbert) oil theory" saw Hubbert extrapolated the theory globally, arguing that worldwide peak oil production would occur in the 1990s. With help from doomsday futurists such as Paul Ehrlich, citing additional work by Hubbert, “peak oil” entered the non-energy sector lexicon as a shorthand for the inevitable exhaustion of the world’s natural resources, most especially fossil fuels.

Essentially Ehrlich believes we will run out of everything

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%...3Ehrlich_wager

[Maka]

Back on topic please before the mods intervene..

cheers, Maka

[Romulus]

I've observed a 40cpl drop in V Power price in Perth. It's gone from 180cpl to around 140cpl, a bit drop.

E85 from United is still sitting around 182cpl, which is ironic, as only 15% of the fuel content is 91 octane petrol. Price gouging anyone?

[Sprintey]

Think I saw 1.28 in G Town yesterday with autogas getting as low as 0.57... those kind of figures make gas competitive again...

[FairmontGS]

I was in Perth last week on business and was drinking with some American oil people who were visiting - they were very bullish on the new reserves and yet to be discovered reserves that are on the horizon. Plus new technology for being more efficient on existing reserves. One of them predicted to me that the world will probably stop using oil before oil runs out.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Maka

Back on topic please before the mods intervene..

cheers, Maka

Too late, anymore off topic/political posts will be having Christmas holidays early.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by malazn mafia

So by common sense, isn’t the correct path depopulation? Since life expectancy is increasing, lowering birth rates throughout the board should work wonders for all the issues facing humanity

feminism got that covered in the west,

can't speak for India, china thou..

[burnz]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Think I saw 1.28 in G Town yesterday with autogas getting as low as 0.57... those kind of figures make gas competitive again...

104.9 north Gosford/wyoming

[Sprintey]

104.9 would be very good for petrol price, but I'm guessing that's gas. Ouch if so.

The benefits of having a refinery nearby, as per my deleted post. You got away with yours Burnz lol

[burnz]

no petrol,, today 111.9.
haven't priced LPG..

[burnz]

Lpg 84.8

[Sprintey]

Yeah wow!
That would make me want to convert a dedicated LPG car to petrol!

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by csv8

Hilux might become diesel only. Toyota wouldn't do that if there was no future in diesel. https://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/n...cid=spartandhp

In the short term there is enough demand.

But Europe and China are planning to ban diesel cars.