Australia housing bubble

[buggerlugs]

Damo, is this near you ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...pains/11537562

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Damo, is this near you ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...pains/11537562

I'm central Vic - regional fringe of Melbourne.

That's Melbourne's Western suburbs - unfortunately what's happening out that way is HUGE development without adequate public transport so it forces everyone into cars, I was driving around that area last week.

On the freeway the traffic was banked up about a kilometre in the emergency lane, what they were doing was trying to turn left about a kilometre down the road but lining up in the emergency lane on the freeway, by the time people realised they needed to be in the emergency lane not the left lane like normal they'd stopped on the freeway completely blocking the left lane trying to get in.

It's similar with the SE suburbs but they have better public transport options, except that industry is moving in large numbers to the SE suburbs like Dandenong and Dandenong South, that sucks for people like me who work in those industries as it's a 2.5 hour commute taken up mostly by getting stuck in congestion, it's probably only 100km distance wise.

The problem is there's about 130,000 people moving to Melbourne every year, prior to this government we haven't really had infrastructure investment required to sustain our huge growth for the past 20 years.

The government should incentivise business to move out to the other capital cities, Adelaide is a city that lacks opportunity for the little ones coming through University, they come out with a degree and no opportunity at home so they move to Melbourne or Sydney - Melbourne essentially is growing by an entire Adelaide every decade.

It's not sustainable development expanding Melbourne further and further out while we all commute by road to Melbourne CBD or Melbourne SE suburbs.

We're expected to eclipse Sydney by 2026 and become Australia largest capital city in population.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm central Vic - regional fringe of Melbourne.

It's not sustainable development expanding Melbourne further and further out while we all commute by road to Melbourne CBD or Melbourne SE suburbs.

We're expected to eclipse Sydney by 2026 and become Australia largest capital city in population.

I think the only thing saving Sydney from more over development is, it is surrounded by three huge National Parks and the sea. Not to mention topographically it is basically an island, the Nepean River almost meets the Hawkesbury.

[MITCHAY]

Bank passed on 0.15 for me. Asked my broker to get them to knock the other 0.10 off to match new business rate.

They knocked off extra last time so why the **** wouldn't you ask?

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I think the only thing saving Sydney from more over development is, it is surrounded by three huge National Parks and the sea. Not to mention topographically it is basically an island, the Nepean River almost meets the Hawkesbury.

Sydney still has an absolute ton of dirt ripe for development.

They just drag things out with rezoning and make residential lot development financially crippling.



Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

[Franco Cozzo]

Sydney is an absolute monster too geographically - especially Western Sydney.

If you went as far North from Melbourne as you did West as that Penrith region is you're in regional Victoria, it's not 'Melbourne' - you're talking Gisborne.

The first time I went to Sydney I booked a hotel in Rooty Hill expecting it to be within 'Sydney', technically it is but it was a $113 one way drunken Uber ride from Circular Quay

That RSL is like the Crown Casino of pokies - like an old fogies arcade

[roKWiz]

Franco,
I can not complain as I'm currently staying in Darling Harbour.
My old man was jammy when he bought this apartment just as he sold his place in Florida (a month before Sept 11) and walk into this corporate apartment just as they were flogging them off cheaply, one year after the Sydney Olympics.
Every thing was included even the plates and cutlery.

I reckon I wouldn't stay here if I had to stay in the burbs now.

Just been googling Truck Part suppliers in Sydney (for the Louie) and do you think I can find anything which is easy to get to now from central Sydney.
They're all out the back of beyond, in fact I can find more places in Albury to chase parts.
Grew up in Sydney but how things have changed, no one makes anything here anymore (apart from coffee)

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Franco,
I can not complain as I'm currently staying in Darling Harbour.
My old man was jammy when he bought this apartment just as he sold his place in Florida (a month before Sept 11) and walk into this corporate apartment just as they were flogging them off cheaply, one year after the Sydney Olympics.
Every thing was included even the plates and cutlery.

I reckon I wouldn't stay here if I had to stay in the burbs now.

Just been googling Truck Part suppliers in Sydney (for the Louie) and do you think I can find anything which is easy to get to now from central Sydney.
They're all out the back of beyond, in fact I can find more places in Albury to chase parts.
Grew up in Sydney but how things have changed, no one makes anything here anymore (apart from coffee)

Gleeman Truck Parts - Western Sydney

This is an interesting perspective about the current state of our economy:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...d9697efcc81fb5

It has truths to it, I come out of our education system a decade ago, out of the 250 of us who started in year 7 together, 140 of us made it to the end of year 12, of those 140, it was myself and 9 others who went onto trades, the rest went to university.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Gleeman Truck Parts - Western Sydney

This is an interesting perspective about the current state of our economy:

It has truths to it, I come out of our education system a decade ago, out of the 250 of us who started in year 7 together, 140 of us made it to the end of year 12, of those 140, it was myself and 9 others who went onto trades, the rest went to university.

Yep, everyone wants to go to uni, learn everything in "theory", come out and walk into the top paying jobs. Doesn't happen like that anyone.
The trade education system has been falling apart for a long time, now its starting to bite back on skills shortage and hence our economy because we don't know how to build, fix or make stuff here anymore.

And everyone complains about cashed up tradies.

Franco, Gleemans are Ok I use them a lot when here.

[.:4:.]

Uni degrees, trades licences, all that. Put that aside. The wrong attitude people have today is the qualification makes the money. No, hard work with the qualification is how you make the money, not even that, but just hard and honest work. I see it all the time. The amount of young blokes i see come through the door and leave because they cant take an 8 hour day of not even a hard slog, but an honest day, thinking that in 4 years cruising they will instantly be a cashed up tradie blows my mind. Im not cashed up. I work hard for what i have. And its nothing amazing. But still, the other hard working blokes who are my colleagues still question how the hell i own a house. Being on the same or a better rate then myself, i just have to say, well, i only earn the extra 20k over them because saturdays to me are considered work days. Overtime, work. Money can be exchanged for goods and services. So i put in the extra service in exchange for money, and that money i use in exchange for goods. Well, the entitlement which people think they have, wake up sunshine. You only take out what you put in. Nobody cares about what is handed to them, yet sonething earned is treated like gold. Its a generational attitude thing.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Uni degrees, trades licences, all that. Put that aside. The wrong attitude people have today is the qualification makes the money. No, hard work with the qualification is how you make the money, not even that, but just hard and honest work. I see it all the time. The amount of young blokes i see come through the door and leave because they cant take an 8 hour day of not even a hard slog, but an honest day, thinking that in 4 years cruising they will instantly be a cashed up tradie blows my mind. Im not cashed up. I work hard for what i have. And its nothing amazing. But still, the other hard working blokes who are my colleagues still question how the hell i own a house. Being on the same or a better rate then myself, i just have to say, well, i only earn the extra 20k over them because saturdays to me are considered work days. Overtime, work. Money can be exchanged for goods and services. So i put in the extra service in exchange for money, and that money i use in exchange for goods. Well, the entitlement which people think they have, wake up sunshine. You only take out what you put in. Nobody cares about what is handed to them, yet sonething earned is treated like gold. Its a generational attitude thing.

I been approached by young blokes numerous times in my travels asking to be my offsider then process to tell me what they can not do.
Oh I got a sore back, Oh I can not travel far, I spend a lot of time in the gym so I might not be able to work long hours one guy insisted I should provide a forklift for any helper.

Can you do the F ing work or not if not p*ss off.

This laziness is effecting every industry and I can see why it is effecting the housing market, really if anything, less trade skills means the housing market should go higher due to less houses.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I been approached by young blokes numerous times in my travels asking to be my offsider then process to tell me what they can not do.
Oh I got a sore back, Oh I can not travel far, I spend a lot of time in the gym so I might not be able to work long hours one guy insisted I should provide a forklift for any helper.

Can you do the F ing work or not if not p*ss off.

This laziness is effecting every industry and I can see why it is effecting the housing market, really if anything, less trade skills means the housing market should go higher due to less houses.

Gym junkies being weak? Image not translating into being capable of work due to last nights sesh? Yeah, seen that. It annoys me. Just because you bench 140, doesnt translate to actual work. When i show up these blokes at work with my anohrexic preying mantis frame with dad bod thrown on top and they ask what i bench. My response is i bench fat bitches. That shuts them up fast. I also do this thing that is these days unthinkable. At work i disconnect from anything personal and focus on the task at hand. None of this glued to a phone business. Work ethic is really hard to find these days. Its bred out i reckon. The acceptance of failure and personal image is a major factor in that. Work = house. House=work. House=expensive. Expensive=work. House= not renting. Rent=gets more expensive. So the rental market is for fools. Why cop it and complain. Granted i can control my income. Overtime is available. But for a salary, be good at the job, get yourself into such a state where the company will take a hit if you leave then ask, well, tell, for more. Things do not magically happen.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Gym junkies being weak? Image not translating into being capable of work due to last nights sesh? Yeah, seen that. It annoys me. Just because you bench 140, doesnt translate to actual work. When i show up these blokes at work with my anohrexic preying mantis frame with dad bod thrown on top and they ask what i bench. My response is i bench fat bitches. That shuts them up fast. I also do this thing that is these days unthinkable. At work i disconnect from anything personal and focus on the task at hand. None of this glued to a phone business. Work ethic is really hard to find these days. Its bred out i reckon. The acceptance of failure and personal image is a major factor in that. Work = house. House=work. House=expensive. Expensive=work. House= not renting. Rent=gets more expensive. So the rental market is for fools. Why cop it and complain. Granted i can control my income. Overtime is available. But for a salary, be good at the job, get yourself into such a state where the company will take a hit if you leave then ask, well, tell, for more. Things do not magically happen.

I don't want hard workers, I want smart workers and I want people with initiative - the latter is rare.

I don't mind people bludging as long as they get the work done and they can do process improvement, step into other roles and show initiative to think on their feet, we've got what you would term 'hard workers' in our production facility, mostly old blokes.

But they're all running out the door at 4PM when the siren goes and they've never tried to improve anything in their lives, one guy has been out there for 15 years and knows nothing other than the one product he has been assembling for 15 years, how do you work somewhere for 15 years and only learn one thing? Technically he's a hard worker but he's not worth the wages, he would be the first on my hit list if I was running the show, we've sacked 20 blokes on our production floor and we're turning out significantly more work than we ever have in the past - they're being managed by someone with a god damn clue in structure and organisation.

They work hard, but they've never lifted a finger to improve production methods, cross train, self improve etc, the majority of the workforce on the production floor, I can do their job, they can't do mine.

Chinese people work hard too, and they work hard for a 10th of what our production staff get paid, but they don't value add - so value add.

With me last year I didn't even ask for more money they just threw an extra 10% at me, I didn't even ask for a review.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I don't want hard workers, I want smart workers and I want people with initiative - the latter is rare.

I don't mind people bludging as long as they get the work done and they can do process improvement, step into other roles and show initiative to think on their feet, we've got what you would term 'hard workers' in our production facility, mostly old blokes.

But they're all running out the door at 4PM when the siren goes and they've never tried to improve anything in their lives, one guy has been out there for 15 years and knows nothing other than the one product he has been assembling for 15 years, how do you work somewhere for 15 years and only learn one thing? Technically he's a hard worker but he's not worth the wages, he would be the first on my hit list if I was running the show, we've sacked 20 blokes on our production floor and we're turning out significantly more work than we ever have in the past - they're being managed by someone with a god damn clue in structure and organisation.

They work hard, but they've never lifted a finger to improve production methods, cross train, self improve etc, the majority of the workforce on the production floor, I can do their job, they can't do mine.

Chinese people work hard too, and they work hard for a 10th of what our production staff get paid, but they don't value add - so value add.

With me last year I didn't even ask for more money they just threw an extra 10% at me, I didn't even ask for a review.

Ofcourse you want smart workers, but just because you know your job well, still means you can be lazy.
As an apprentice i worked for a bit under a really smart guy who came unstuck as he could go straight to the source of an issue, get it done in 15 minutes, know he could charge say 2 hours, charge said 2 hours and go shopping. His undoing was a random site visit from my boss who waited on site until he returned from going shopping. So understandibly my boss went nuts. All im getting at is you go places, get those pay reviews and earn your keep if you get good at your chosen career and put in the effort.

[roKWiz]

Yeah, I was referring to hard workers being both smart and not waste our time, they don't have to be big dumb ox's.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Yeah, I was referring to hard workers being both smart and not waste our time, they don't have to be big dumb ox's.

I work with a few blokes who work hard, but dont work smart, so they work harder then they should as they do not think. Does that sum it up?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

I work with a few blokes who work hard, but dont work smart, so they work harder then they should as they do not think. Does that sum it up?

Nah, I was referring to Franco's last post where he said this....

"I don't want hard workers, I want smart workers and I want people with initiative - the latter is rare."

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Nah, I was referring to Franco's last post where he said this....

"I don't want hard workers, I want smart workers and I want people with initiative - the latter is rare."

Initiative as all part of working smart. New solutions to an existing problem, getting it done with the same result but less time and effort. Its just getting in and not doing the slog, but smashing it out. As long as its the same result. Quality work, with a smarter technique. Any task, theres 400 different ways to acheive the same result. Some work for individuals better the others. But efficiency, or using the most efficient technique that suits a person is key.
But this is now a tangent. Houses are expensive. The market may be on a down turn, but still its not an easy carousel to jump on. But the only peice of advice my boss ever said, was once you jump on, never jump off.

[zilo]

Commonwealth bank forecast now says we are likely to see up to a 30% fall in house prices with Tasmania one of the hardest hit.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...yment/12241338

[Citroënbender]

Bring it on. I’ll buy two there.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Bring it on. I’ll buy two there.

Not just there but everywhere.

Australia is over valued and the housing market has been rorted for a long time. Let it crash and burn.

At least Govco didn't have to stuff around with neg gearing, they will be thankful for that. Or is it a time to smack it on the head while its down.... at least start a phase out plan.

Maybe people can actually invest in shares and the things that grow the economy and have risk and not have average people on average incomes with multiple houses that cant take a blip in the economy. Housing investment has been a protected species which IMO has held us back.

Ive stocked up on popcorn.

[Bossxr8]

It's only a prediction. And you might see big falls in Sydney, where housing is ridiculously overpriced anyway, but I reckon it won't be anywhere near as bad as 30% everywhere else. Especially regional areas.

Sydney house prices need an adjustment. $1 million + for your average home is just insane.

[Charliewool]

You might actually see an increase in fringe/ semi-rural property?
I think a hell of a lot might be thinking twice about living shoulder to shoulder in densely populated city and inner suburbia?
WFH, I think will also have a big impact on giving people the choice to live further out.
Possibly a blessing in disguise, with congestion and pollution reduction?

[kaniSS]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I been approached by young blokes numerous times in my travels asking to be my offsider then process to tell me what they can not do.
Oh I got a sore back, Oh I can not travel far, I spend a lot of time in the gym so I might not be able to work long hours one guy insisted I should provide a forklift for any helper.

Can you do the F ing work or not if not p*ss off.

This laziness is effecting every industry and I can see why it is effecting the housing market, really if anything, less trade skills means the housing market should go higher due to less houses.

We get quite a few like that as well. Youngin's who just graduated and they "know it all". They think the office has to revolve around them and their needs. Mind you I've fired about 5 people like that. Very hard to find decent junior these days. We have 1 now he is good, shows respect and works hard without complaints.

[guzzis3]

Housing in the 3 east coast capitals is about 60% overvalued, supported by unsustainable immigration, domestic and overseas investors.

If you can be bothered charting average wage vs average house price in sydney for example it started in the 80's and has been getting worse ever since, apart from a hiatus after the recession in 1990. Cashed up boomers started it and then it became a contagion.

The lack of recessions is also a fallacy. Growth has been due entirely to ridiculous immigration levels. The highest rate in the OECD for almost 20 years now.

At some point the bubble has to burst, but I have been amazed for about 15 years now how it's managed to keep going. The small retraction about a decade ago was not nearly enough. Now finally with the virus maybe enough oxygen will be cut off for Australia's economy to get a forced reset, but who knows. Maybe we will just keep borrowing forever.

Incidentally real estate across Australia is cheap. You can buy a house in NSW or Qld for $80k sometimes less. Land can be had for $10k, but people would rather spend 1 mill in sydney and enslave themselves to a bank for life... bizarre...

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

You might actually see an increase in fringe/ semi-rural property?
I think a hell of a lot might be thinking twice about living shoulder to shoulder in densely populated city and inner suburbia?
WFH, I think will also have a big impact on giving people the choice to live further out.
Possibly a blessing in disguise, with congestion and pollution reduction?

I hope not. Please stay in the cities.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Housing in the 3 east coast capitals is about 60% overvalued, supported by unsustainable immigration, domestic and overseas investors.

If you can be bothered charting average wage vs average house price in sydney for example it started in the 80's and has been getting worse ever since, apart from a hiatus after the recession in 1990. Cashed up boomers started it and then it became a contagion.

The lack of recessions is also a fallacy. Growth has been due entirely to ridiculous immigration levels. The highest rate in the OECD for almost 20 years now.

At some point the bubble has to burst, but I have been amazed for about 15 years now how it's managed to keep going. The small retraction about a decade ago was not nearly enough. Now finally with the virus maybe enough oxygen will be cut off for Australia's economy to get a forced reset, but who knows. Maybe we will just keep borrowing forever.

Incidentally real estate across Australia is cheap. You can buy a house in NSW or Qld for $80k sometimes less. Land can be had for $10k, but people would rather spend 1 mill in sydney and enslave themselves to a bank for life... bizarre...

Within reason you need to live where the work is.

The other way to get around this is to stop investing in the cities are push companies out to regional areas or atleast 2-3 hours form the capitals.

Build some decent highways (up the speed limits) and stop relying on these hubs.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Within reason you need to live where the work is.

The other way to get around this is to stop investing in the cities are push companies out to regional areas or atleast 2-3 hours form the capitals.

Build some decent highways (up the speed limits) and stop relying on these hubs.

Nice, but there is not enough water available to support all this infrastructure. That why most cities have built up along coastlines.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Nice, but there is not enough water available to support all this infrastructure. That why most cities have built up along coastlines.

Didnt say it had to be inland. Plus we could actually try and make desal work for industry.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Didnt say it had to be inland. Plus we could actually try and make desal work for industry.

I agree with you but no one wants to move away from their city jobs, been proven time and time again with regionalisation programs various GovCo dept have tried.

Given there is a 5000km Great Dividing Range to content with, there wouldn't be to many options for regional towns along the coasts to expand and once over the range the water starts to dry up in anything other that winter.
For desal to work you need a water source to start with.