Covid 19 - - Page 355

Citroënbender · 12-05-2021, 10:31 AM

That sounds intense, the shock will linger with you a while.

If his daughter has an iPhone or iPad, any PDF from the medical team (to justify her flight) can be attached directly to an iMessage. I mention this as it can add a little convenience.

BENT_8 · 12-05-2021, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That sounds intense, the shock will linger with you a while.

If his daughter has an iPhone or iPad, any PDF from the medical team (to justify her flight) can be attached directly to an iMessage. I mention this as it can add a little convenience.

Thankyou so much, ive never experienced shock like that before, couldnt even stand up as the doctor told us the gravity of the situation, to go from laughing and joking to that realisation in lless than 2 minutes is overwhelming.
He's been my best mate for 35yrs, closer than any of my siblings and has no family of his own in SA so im trying to be so many different things whilst grieving and contemplating the future without him.

**russellw** · 12-05-2021, 11:01 AM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 11th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

7 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.040%.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.983% and active cases 27.

The UK had a higher 2,474 cases yesterday and 20 deaths.

Just over 30k new cases in the USA yesterday and 394 deaths sees CMR at 1.779%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 160M, the last 1M in 1 day;
South America passes 26M cases;
India passes 23M cases;

Only -
Maldives (1,501);
Bahrain (1,732); and
Nepal (9,317)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and none drop below.

yakcam · 12-05-2021, 11:57 AM

Don't worry about the cross border application time. I did mine on my phone while taxiing to the runway at Tullamarine airport. I totally forgot to do it beforehand. She'll be fine.

Sorry to hear about your mate.

**russellw** · 12-05-2021, 12:42 PM

Let's have a look at how some Asian countries are faring.

We'll start with India - after the first wave they had a reasonably steady period before this second wave started in mid March and it has been much worse than the first with their peak only coming last week.

Azerbaijan - after the first wave ended in July last year they had a reasonably steady period before a worse second wave started in mid October and then a 3rd smaller wave which peaked in April this year.

Bahrain - they are probably now on their fourth wave although it could be argued that they never really got over the third wave and this one probably still hasn't peaked because yesterday was a new high.

Bangladesh - the first and second waves were fairly close followed by a steady period between January and mid-March this year before a much worse third wave which peaked in early April this year.

Cyprus - they really didn't have their first wave until October last year but it lasted awhile and peaked in late December but they also had a bigger second wave which started in early March and peaked in mid April this year.

Georgia - they also really didn't have their first wave until late September last year but it lasted awhile and peaked in mid December but they are also now having a second (smaller) wave which started in mid April and probably hasn't peaked yet.

Indonesia - has really just had a long first wave that peaked in mid January and still hasn't dropped back to the levels of mid last year.

Iran - has two distinct waves but the first was steady for almost 6 months before peaking in mid November while the second wave started at the end of March and is still going although it peaked in mid-April. What is clear from the relatively flat trend line is that they really haven't got on top of it at any point.

Iraq - also has two distinct waves with the first lasting from June to November while the (bigger) second wave started in early February and is still going although it peaked in late-April.

Israel - also has two distinct waves with the first lasting from June to October, peaking in September, while the second wave started in early December and ran until mid-March but since then case numbers have dropped to almost nothing.

Japan - has four distinct waves with the third of those (November to February) being the worst, peaking in early January, while the fourth wave started in late March and is still going with the peak of this wave only a few days back.

Jordan - has only had two distinct waves with the first of those not starting until late September and peaking in November while the second (bigger) wave started in late February but has been in decline since mid April with the peak in mid March.

Kazakhstan - has three distinct waves with each being worse then the previous wave. The third and biggest wave started in mid March and is still continuing with the peak (so far) only last week.

Kuwait - has two distinct waves but each has lasted for an extended time period. The second and biggest wave started in early January and is still continuing and despite the peak being in early March, current case numbers are still above the 90th percentile so they aren't getting to grips with it.

Lebanon - really only has one very long wave that started in July last year, peaked in mid January this year and then gradually declined (albeit with a couple of spikes) till now - where it is at manageable levels.

Malaysia - has had two waves - the first (and worst) started in October last year, peaked in mid January this year and then gradually declined before the second started around mid April and is still going with the peak of this wave (so far) only last week.

Myanmar - has had only a single wave which started in August last year, peaked in mid October and was over by the end of January since when they have had almost no cases to speak of and they make a very good example of a country which took a determined approach to eradication.

Nepal - currently in the midst of their third and worst wave which started in mid April and probably hasn't peaked yet with the current 'high' being recorded yesterday.

Oman - also currently in the midst of their third wave which is better than the first but worse than the second and which started in early March and peaked in late April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall.

Pakistan - also currently in the midst of their third wave which is better than the first but worse than the second and which started in early March and peaked in mid April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall.

Palestine - has had two distinct waves with the second (starting in November last year) being the worst; peaking in early December and over by the end of January and although the case numbers have returned to the level they were at between the two waves, that level is still too high.

Philippines - currently in the midst of their second wave which is much worse than the first and which started in early March and peaked in early April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall.

South Korea - currently in the midst of their third wave which is worse than the first but better than the second and which started in early April and peaked in late April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels although the trend line is now downward overall.

Sri Lanka - currently in the midst of their second wave which is much worse than the first and which started in late April and probably hasn't peaked yet with the current 'high' only a couple of days ago.

Syria - currently at the end of their third (or maybe even fourth) and worst wave which started in early March and peaked in late March.

Turkey - also at the end of their third and worst wave which started in early March and peaked in mid April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall.

UAE - best described as a good example of what not to do, it's hard to know if the current wave is their second or third but case numbers have continued to get worse each wave and although the peak of this current wave was back in January case numbers are still too high.

**FairmontGS** · 12-05-2021, 03:10 PM

Hundreds of AFL fans urged to test and isolate after train service listed as exposure site

Quote:

Victorian contact tracers are working with the AFL to track down hundreds of fans who attended the blockbuster clash between Richmond and Geelong last Friday and then travelled on the same train as a Wollert man who has tested positive to COVID-19.

Health Minister Martin Foley said the two clubs were helping contact members and supporters who travelled to or from the game on the same train as the infected man.

Anyone who travelled on the 5.28pm Craigieburn to Southern Cross service, or the Flinders Street to Craigieburn departing at 10.20pm on Friday night has been asked to get tested urgently and isolate until receiving a negative test result. The service is considered a tier-2 exposure site.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...12-p57r1i.html

T3rminator · 12-05-2021, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

Let's have a look at how some Asian countries are faring......

Interesting Pakistan and Bangladesh have not seen the same sustained spike as India, even though they share quite a large border. If India does decide to go with a nation wide lock down, I wonder if people will try to get over?

**FairmontGS** · 12-05-2021, 08:00 PM

Victorian authorities blame new Covid case on South Australian quarantine

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...outh-australia

T3rminator · 12-05-2021, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Victorian authorities blame new Covid case on South Australian quarantine

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...outh-australia

Come on buddy. Get with it, that was yesterday's news. Try this one...

Testing confirms Melbourne man picked up COVID-19 in hotel quarantine

https://www.theage.com.au/national/a...09.html#p526ya

6:02pm - Travellers discharged from SA hotel quarantine told to self-isolate

Itsme · 12-05-2021, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Victorian authorities blame new Covid case on South Australian quarantine

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...outh-australia

Why not! all the states have a bad habit of blaming each other, surprised Scomo never got blamed.

Cheers.

zilo · 12-05-2021, 11:29 PM

Gain of function research, thanks to China and the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research
https://dreddymd.com/2021/04/09/fauc...uced-covid-19/

**FairmontGS** · 13-05-2021, 06:37 AM

Covid pandemic was preventable, says WHO-commissioned report

Quote:

The Covid pandemic was a preventable disaster that need not have cost millions of lives if the world had reacted more quickly, according to an independent high-level panel, which castigates global leaders and calls for major changes to bring it to an end and ensure it cannot happen again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ssioned-report

Easy to be wise after the event I guess...

T3rminator · 13-05-2021, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Covid pandemic was preventable, says WHO-commissioned report

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ssioned-report

Easy to be wise after the event I guess...

"Clark described February 2020 as “a month of lost opportunity to avert a pandemic, as so many countries chose to wait and see”."

According to the WHO timeline, I would say decisions made in January was the pivotal point.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...tive-timeline#!

Have a look at the events from 15th to 25th Jan. There was a real chance for the world to stop it in its tracks, but many chose economy over health.

Now, given the political events that have transpired, I can't see how the "world" can agree on a set of standards. Independence no longer exists.

**russellw** · 13-05-2021, 10:51 AM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 12th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

8 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.039%.

-1 case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.984% and active cases 26.

The UK had a lower 2,284 cases yesterday and 11 deaths.

Just over 35k new cases in the USA yesterday and 741 deaths sees CMR at 1.779%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 161M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Asia passes 45M cases;

Trinidad & Tobago (615);
PNG (771); and
Paraguay (2,828)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and Pakistan drops below.

**russellw** · 13-05-2021, 11:55 AM

So, yesterday we looked at Asia where the results were a bit mixed which view is supported by the fact that 13 of the 32 countries we watch closely are above their 90th percentile as is the 10-day rolling average.

Today we are going to look at North & South America where 15 of the 19 countries we watch are above their 90th percentile as is the 10-day rolling average for South America.

South America first.

Argentina
Currently in the midst of a third and worse wave which started back in early April and peaked in mid April. Having said that, the drop between the waves hasn't been big enough with rolling averages still above 5k cases/day which only looks good next to the current 21k cases/day average.

Brazil
Basically a basket case. The relatively smooth (upward) trend-line is a good indication that they really haven't got to grips with the pandemic at all and the small dip in October last year was nothing more than a brief respite. The only plus is that the peak of nearly 100k cases was in late March but the current 60k cases/day average isn't far under the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have been over that mark.

Chile
They are probably just coming off their 2nd (or maybe 3rd) wave which peaked in early April but the current 4.9k cases/day average is too many and 2 of the last 10 days have been over the 90th percentile.

Colombia
Starting to come off their 3rd wave which started in late March and peaked in late April but the current 15.5k cases/day average is still over the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark so this wave has a way to go yet.

Ecuador
Another relatively flat trend line that has started to trend upward and peaked only a couple of weeks back. The current 1,733 cases/day average is just below the 90th percentile but 2 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark.

Peru
They are now coming out of their third and largest wave which started in early January and peaked in mid April although the trend line is only just starting to flatten. The current 5.3k cases/day average is below the 90th percentile but 1 of the last 10 days has been over that mark.

Uruguay
A bit of an odd case. They managed to get through most of last year with very low case numbers but the current wave which started in late November saw a rapid climb in case numbers and peaked in mid April although the trend line is still upward. The current 2.5k cases/day average is well above the 90th percentile and 8 of the last 10 days have been over that mark.

Venezuela
Still in the midst of their 2nd wave which started in mid March and peaked in early April although the trend line is still upward. The current 1,125 cases/day average is above the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark.

North America is in the post below.

**russellw** · 13-05-2021, 12:34 PM

North America.

USA
They are stabilising after their second and largest wave which started in late October and peaked in early January although the current 40k cases/day average is too many even if it is a lot less than the 190k 90th percentile.

Canada
They are now coming out of their third and largest wave which started in late March and peaked in early April although the current 6.8k cases/day average is only just below the 90th percentile and 4 of the last 10 days have been above it.

Costa Rica
They are now in the midst of their second and largest wave which started in early April and (maybe) peaked a few days ago although the current 2.2k cases/day average is well above the 90th percentile and 9 of the last 10 days have been above it.

Cuba
Another odd case. They also managed to get through most of last year with very low case numbers but the current wave which really started back in late December saw a rapid climb in case numbers and peaked in mid April although the trend line continues upward so it isn't over. The current 1,068 cases/day average is above the 90th percentile and 8 of the last 10 days have been over that mark.

Dominican Republic
They might be starting a third wave although it's hard to tell when the troughs have been quite small. The current 604 cases/day average is well below the 90th percentile and none of the last 10 days have been above it so the next few weeks will tell more.

Guatemala
They might be starting a second wave although it's hard to tell when the case numbers have been consistently high after the first wave. The current 900 cases/day average is a bit below the 90th percentile but 6 of the last 10 days have been above it.

Honduras
They also might be starting a third wave although it's hard to tell when the case numbers have been high and a bit 'spiky' after the first wave. The current 890 cases/day average is a bit below the 90th percentile but 3 of the last 10 days have been above it.

Mexico
Something of a success story as their 2nd wave peaked in mid January and case numbers have been in decline ever since. The current 2.1 cases/day average is well below the 11k 90th percentile and it's been a good while since any days have been above it.

Panama
Another success story as their 2nd (and largest) wave peaked in mid January and case numbers have been in decline ever since. The current 374 cases/day average is well below the 2k 90th percentile and it's been a months since any days have been above it.

Metdevil · 13-05-2021, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

North America.

Canada
They are now coming out of their third and largest wave which started in late March and peaked in early April although the current 6.8k cases/day average is only just below the 90th percentile and 4 of the last 10 days have been above it.

image

Just a heads up russellw, the graph for Canada displays USA's graph.

**russellw** · 13-05-2021, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Just a heads up russellw, the graph for Canada displays USA's graph.

Thanks. Fixed that and also resized the small ones.

Bossxr8 · 13-05-2021, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Covid pandemic was preventable, says WHO-commissioned report

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ssioned-report

Easy to be wise after the event I guess...

Same situation and China would still let it spread. They have gained from it, and they know it. They happily let it spread via out-bound flights, while at the same time shut off any in-bound flights. They knew what they were doing.

**FairmontGS** · 13-05-2021, 06:52 PM

Victoria’s COVID QR code system flaws trigger new $1652 on-the-spot fine for businesses

A new on-the-spot fine has been announced for Victorian businesses after a COVID-19 scare exposed flaws with the QR code system.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healt...sses-c-2829961

Citroënbender · 14-05-2021, 07:51 AM

I remain bemused at the vaccination “circus” in Australia. While other first world countries appear to be getting on with innoculating the willing, we appear stuck in a boot loop with what - approximately 2.7M?^* - total doses administered. Long way to go.

We’ve made rules about getting it, changed those rules, and most significantly - in the vein of spruikers forward-selling happiness - our powers keep announcing stuff that’s yet to come. Deals, not physical progress. It’s like the old days of computer software where the joke was an improved or replacement version was coming “real soon now”.

^* Source: ABC news article

**FairmontGS** · 14-05-2021, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I remain bemused at the vaccination “circus” in Australia. While other first world countries appear to be getting on with innoculating the willing, we appear stuck in a boot loop with what - approximately 2.7M?^* - total doses administered. Long way to go.

These "first world" countries?

Country, deaths
USA, 600k
France, 108k
UK, 128k
Italy, 124k
Germany, 87k
Belgium, 25k
Canada, 25k

Yeah, they've done a bang-up job...

jmack · 14-05-2021, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Victoria’s COVID QR code system flaws trigger new $1652 on-the-spot fine for businesses

A new on-the-spot fine has been announced for Victorian businesses after a COVID-19 scare exposed flaws with the QR code system.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healt...sses-c-2829961

Not just business but body corporate as well.now you need a qr code for your home

Citroënbender · 14-05-2021, 09:01 AM

That was entirely not my point. The two statistics can be viewed separately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

These "first world" countries?

Country, deaths
USA, 600k
France, 108k
UK, 128k
Italy, 124k
Germany, 87k
Belgium, 25k
Canada, 25k

Yeah, they've done a bang-up job...

T3rminator · 14-05-2021, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I remain bemused at the vaccination “circus” in Australia. While other first world countries appear to be getting on with innoculating the willing, we appear stuck in a boot loop with what - approximately 2.7M?^* - total doses administered. Long way to go.

We’ve made rules about getting it, changed those rules, and most significantly - in the vein of spruikers forward-selling happiness - our powers keep announcing stuff that’s yet to come. Deals, not physical progress. It’s like the old days of computer software where the joke was an improved or replacement version was coming “real soon now”.

^* Source: ABC news article

She'll be right mate....we are a society that is addicted to big annoucements, keeps us happy and feeling safe. We also take comfort that our cousins across the ditch aren't doing that much better, for the time being.

Did you know that under 50s can now "sign up" for the pfizer jab in golden state? roll up roll up....don't let the train leave you behind.

**russellw** · 14-05-2021, 11:01 AM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 13th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

4 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.038%.

1 case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.983% and active cases 18.

The UK had a higher 2,656 cases yesterday and 11 deaths.

Just under 36k new cases in the USA yesterday and 834 deaths sees CMR at 1.780%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 3.35M, the last 50k in 4 days;
North America passes 39M cases;
India passes 24M cases;

Bahrain (1,816); and
Sri Lanka (3,269)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and the Netherlands drops below.

jmack · 14-05-2021, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

She'll be right mate....we are a society that is addicted to big annoucements, keeps us happy and feeling safe. We also take comfort that our cousins across the ditch aren't doing that much better, for the time being.

Did you know that under 50s can now "sign up" for the pfizer jab in golden state? roll up roll up....don't let the train leave you behind.

Can someone translate into redneck english

**russellw** · 14-05-2021, 01:03 PM

I've said before that the case for returning to a 'new normal' state, whatever that might be, is predicated on getting down to global mortality rates that are similar to those we already accept for Influenza at about 0.5M per annum.

Even if we accept the best case scenario and ~80% of the global population gets vaccinated (unlikely) and the vaccines are 100% effective (which we know isn't true) and we can keep outbreaks out of aged care and the real mortality rate is halved to 1% of those infected and the global rate for infections per 100k halves to 1k/100k then:

- that is potentially 15.6M new infections and 155k deaths (at 1%) or 310k (at the current 2%) which is probably below the level that we are willing to accept globally but even then we'd see the occasional localised 'spike' that had much higher infection and mortality rates like we saw here in Victoria and I'm not so sure what the appetite for that is.

If I ruled the world, I'd be gathering another year of data to see if we really are slowing down infection rates by vaccination alone or if the (small) improvements we've seen in some countries is more due to other countermeasures.

I know India has been hurting the global numbers but in the real world (just like Influenza) those localised outbreaks are not unusual and generally happen somewhere each year.

Leaving India out of the global case numbers for this year does show an apparent improvement albeit with a big caveat:

10-day average case numbers were 675k/day in early January although the Americans were the ones taking a hammering and setting record case numbers at the time as was Europe;

This was down to 380k/day by March after the USA and some of Europe had gotten over the worst; and

It's only dropped fractionally since then with the May average thus far at 378.5k/day as Europe comes out of their worst while Asia and South America head into theirs.

To achieve a global mortality figure similar to Influenza of half a million people that's got to come down by a shedload to somewhere between 68k/day at 2% mortality or 137k/day at 1% - if the latter is even achievable.

Here are the global case numbers since January with India left out.

Itsme · 14-05-2021, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I remain bemused at the vaccination “circus” in Australia. While other first world countries appear to be getting on with innoculating the willing, we appear stuck in a boot loop with what - approximately 2.7M?^* - total doses administered. Long way to go.

We’ve made rules about getting it, changed those rules, and most significantly - in the vein of spruikers forward-selling happiness - our powers keep announcing stuff that’s yet to come. Deals, not physical progress. It’s like the old days of computer software where the joke was an improved or replacement version was coming “real soon now”.

^* Source: ABC news article

I would imagine the uptake in vaccination would be higher if we were having deaths like other countries, I also blame the public for the slow uptake as we have too much of laidback attitude at present time.
How often do read, see and hear the authorities pleading for people to get vaccinated.

**FairmontGS** · 14-05-2021, 04:03 PM

Repatriation flight seats left empty after Australians test positive for COVID-19 in India

Quote:

An Australian man in India who tested positive to COVID-19 and will not be able to return on a repatriation flight tonight says he did "everything to protect himself" from the virus.

About half of the 150 seats on a repatriation flight set to leave India will be left empty after more than 40 people tested positive to the virus, meaning they and their close contacts cannot fly.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-...eats/100140260