Australia housing bubble

[John 13]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

We needed a good recession. A housing fall would be nice.

While this sounds a bit severe (depending where one sits in the domestic housing system) and the 'index of affordability" currently sits around 7 in the major capital cities, it was a lot better for first home buyers when it was 4-5.( a ratio variously calculated, but for example cost of house/average adult wage.) However the housing market is very complex location, interest rates, population growth and taxpayer funded grants among other factors feed into the mix.
It always appears that the domestic building industry is the major employer in Australia, remember John Howards "housing led recovery" well are we still looking for that ?
Here in Perth, the last 20 years has seen a dramatic simplification of house construction, requiring a lot less on site skill and a lot of frills have been cut out. Personally I would prefer to see government's investing tax payers' contributions in either infrastructure or in industries which provide a developmental progression of skill/knowledge levels for employees.

[Franco Cozzo]

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.



Surely that would have good insulation and sound deadening properties and its tough as god damn nails cause the whole thing aside from the roof is concrete.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.



Surely that would have good insulation and sound deadening properties and its tough as god damn nails cause the whole thing aside from the roof is concrete.

Franco, I built a chimney for a guy who built one of these, the panel construction looked pretty good. After all, the way it is going there ain't going to be to many brickie left and wooden houses are few and far in fire regions.

The older guys I know up here are getting out of building spec homes.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Franco, I built a chimney for a guy who built one of these, the panel construction looked pretty good. After all, the way it is going there ain't going to be to many brickie left and wooden houses are few and far in fire regions.

The older guys I know up here are getting out of building spec homes.

They are 3D printing houses with cement.

Minimal waste, no smoko, no inconsistent laying, no 'mis-understanding' of the plans to cut a corners, the ability to do unique designs that would be hard with bricks.

Neighbour did is place in Hebel. Not sold on it - too industrial, large slabs of the stuff with think expansion joints.

Too brittle, would hate to bang a wheel barrow or a trailer into it by accident.

[Franco Cozzo]

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

It should be cheaper - much the same as any modern or new building method should be cheaper.

How much cheaper? Those pre-cast panels will weigh a motza - transportation costs, permits for the crane as well as the daily cost and the inflexibility / restrictions of the design once set will offset any perceived savings.

Service conduits are probably planned ahead and cast into the mould. Good luck if you get it wrong.

It would have to be planned spot on with no scope for modifications.

Geeze, when I built my place I diverted from the plans probably 50 times. Easy when you are project manager and organising the trades yourself and you explain what the changes are and ensure it's done.

We just have too much red tape and bureaucracy.

You watch in the states how they can pick up and shift a 3 story brick house on the back of a truck - can you ever imagine entertaining that thought here?

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats it cost to build a basic house, I'm not sure if buy 30 year old home or build the Kia Picanto of homes at the cheapest price point

You get what you pay for. Cheaper project homes start falling apart pretty much immediately. Building regulation is different in each state and I'm no expert on victoria but it's pretty much useless in Qld and NSW. I know a bloke who built a dixon home. Within 18 months the bricks started cracking really badly. Not covered. Brick veneer is cladding not structural. I know a girl who built a spec home, the photos from the build were breathtaking. You wouldn't think any human could make the mistakes they did. She didn't take Elizabeth's advice and hire a professional inspector, so she signed off on it. The gaps under all the internal doors were about 4". There are a few that focus on quality rather than fruit but they are few.

I've had a chance to look at the emerging details of the grant. I'm thinking the master builders donated to the coalition election campaign and now it's payback time. No owner builders. Short time frame for approvals. I bet 90% of it will go to dodgy project home builders, they have structured it to exclude everyone else.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by GXA

When my parents bought in 1955, my grandfather said to my father "why are you buying now, they're gunna come down". Guess wot.....

I lived through the '90s recession. Prices might have flattened-off for a few years, but there was no dramatic drop.

The moral of the story is don't hang your hat on a magic 30% price plunge. It's not gunna happen....

Actually that's not true. Unfortunately I haven't seen the raw data only calculations from it, but in the 1990 recession prices fell something like 14% averaged across Australia. Our biggest property crash was in the late 1890's and was centered on Melbourne. From memory it was 40% but I can't quite remember.

Unfortunately people don't deal well with long term trends, anything much over 12 months and the disbelief or just plain deafness increases exponentially.

If you look at the western world vs Australia long term we have been going through an anomalous period since at least 1970 but probably longer. We had 3 generations who were obsessed with home ownership and then property investment. More recently the highest rates of immigration in the OECD have been used to mask our declining productivity. But those property obsessed pre war, boomers and yes even my lot are getting old and dropping off the twig. Look overseas and you will see what our future holds. Return to trend and re balancing of property value income multiples.

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.

The shell isn't the problem. The bulk of cost in a house, apart from wifey's $1000 tap she just had to have, is in the internal fitout. A shed costs about $130 sqm all steel on concrete. A hardwood, cypress or pressure treated pine frame with colourbond cladding on a concrete base isn't MUCH dearer. It's mostly in the plumbing getting laid in the slab. Steel starts at about $15 sqm plus fitting brick veneer starts about $120 laid. Neither include the frame.

I looked into precast and tilt up concrete when I was thinking of buying a cliff face at Lake Macquarie. The view was unbelievable but thee block had "challenges".

If you are looking to build a cheap house: slab, possibly waffle slab if your soil and geotek is challenging, treated pine frame, trusses, steel cladding, glass insulation, sliding aluminium windows (or doors), cheap kitchen and plumbing fixtures, no $1000 fancy lighting fixtures, cheap carpets. You can build that for under $1000 sqm and do it so it lasts. Rectangle, hip roof or single pitch, even belcon but remember verandahs cost. Build a seperate steel shed at $130 sqm rather than an included garage at $1000sqm.

Project home builders don't offer that because women make the decisions and they rarely understand that if you dump the fancy cornice and roof tiles you can get another bedroom for the same money...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

We needed a good recession. A housing fall would be nice.

Might see slightly larger drops in overpriced melbourne and sydney, but outside of that i’d be very surprised to see anything more than 3-5% at the most.

And it will be back up within a couple of years. Anyone thinking they will suddenly be able to buy a cheap house is delusional. Much better to own now than to be renting.

1st quarter house prices in my area increased 0.8% so regional areas still going strong.

[mad2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

i doubt it would be much cheaper for a single house ..... if your doing multiples then yes/maybe if all same/same. and doubt a concrete framed house will be cheaper to heat/cool than a 'normal' wood framed house [dunno re metal framed] as i have noticed differances between the two.

also as was mentioned earlier ..... if you want to change internal walls etc .... your limited as per conduit/plumbing being preplanned in walls [as in older housing commission homes] so once it's up.......

as to a house price drop...? .... i don't know as i don't have a crystal ball to see with

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by mad2

i doubt it would be much cheaper for a single house ..... if your doing multiples then yes/maybe if all same/same. and doubt a concrete framed house will be cheaper to heat/cool than a 'normal' wood framed house [dunno re metal framed] as i have noticed differances between the two.

also as was mentioned earlier ..... if you want to change internal walls etc .... your limited as per conduit/plumbing being preplanned in walls [as in older housing commission homes] so once it's up.......

as to a house price drop...? .... i don't know as i don't have a crystal ball to see with

According to their website the cost is similar to traditional brick veneer but provides better thermal properties. One of the main advantages they seem to push is the time. Lock up within ten days.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, .

That's how my little house arrived, but built to lock up in a factory.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Much better to own now than to be renting.

Which is always the case so not sure what your point is concerning the future?

[mad2]

Originally Posted by naddis01

According to their website the cost is similar to traditional brick veneer but provides better thermal properties. One of the main advantages they seem to push is the time. Lock up within ten days.

not with the one i know of! ... crap thermal properties


as too lockup .. yep

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Which is always the case so not sure what your point is concerning the future?

That people think it’s a bad time to buy, but **** money away on rent.

[guzzis3]

Depends on what you are after. There are 2 aspects to thermodynamics in a house. The first is resistance to heat flow through walls, the second is heat retention.

Heavy masonry walls whether brick or concrete soak up heat in the day and release it at night. You might think that's desirable but I will never forget my parents getting insulation in their brick veneer house in the 80's. They'd built it a few years earlier and it was pretty livable but after the insulation it stayed freezing cold in winter till about 11 am and stayed stinking hot in summer half the night. Made getting up hard and getting to sleep impossible. It acts like a battery (or capacitor) slowing the ingress of heat not reducing it.

If you use non massive lagging like a light cladding and material with low thermal conductivity it slows heat ingress (or loss for you southerners) but doesn't store it so if you want to change the temperature you can do that easily. In snow dwellers terms it means you can heat a room faster because you are heating the air not the wall structure.

Brick veneer looks expensive so people prefer it. It can be cheaper than most alternatives. I don't hate it, but if you are concerned with economics rather than aesthetics colourbond over pine with batts and gyprock is your friend. I personally prefer glass batts as they are fire resistant. Some might point out the material for say fibro sheet or weatherboards is cheaper but they aren't factoring in painting.

If you buy me flowers and dinner I'll let you see my spreadsheet.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

If you buy me flowers and dinner I'll let you see my spreadsheet.

Is that what the kids are calling it these days...

[Sprintey]

Myob

[BA-XT]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

That people think it’s a bad time to buy, but **** money away on rent.

This.

Our rent was $360 a week or $18k a year.... makes my eyes water thinking about it now. Say our $475k house dropped by say 5% for a year.... still better off buying because it will bounce back up. Our long term growth is around eight percent.

[Citroënbender]

Aside from the investment arguments, it’s all but impossible to discard the emotional security of owning your own place - or at least being in a solid position to retain it.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Aside from the investment arguments, it’s all but impossible to discard the emotional security of owning your own place - or at least being in a solid position to retain it.

Most important of all.

Your place, your terms, your ability to do as you please.

Priceless.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

That's how my little house arrived, but built to lock up in a factory.

Modular/prefab home, have also been investigating these options.

I'm open to thinking outside the box.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

That people think it’s a bad time to buy, but **** money away on rent.

Ok I agree but remember many people can't enter the market to start with.

I know various people who want to buy but simply can't (yes they want to buy in the same area not outside....lived a close city life so it doesn't help).

[Citroënbender]

FC, traditional owner-builder not an option? Surely you could scrape around the traps (eg forums like this) for necessary subbies to take the lottery out of that aspect?

[MercuryT]

If will be interesting.

I still predict a drop in prices.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

If will be interesting.



I still predict a drop in prices.

I got a small 1br unit in western Sydney.

December last year it was vacant. Tossed up selling. Value was only around $240k, 2 br places were around $280-300k.

Found someone after 2 months at $10 less a week.

Had a look last night. Only 1br is $330k (renovated) and a bunch of 2br places between $320-360k.

Earlier this year a 2br place went for $26X.

The lower end looks strong.

Top end looks stable.

Middle ground seems to be where a drop will be if at all.

Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I got a small 1br unit in western Sydney.

December last year it was vacant. Tossed up selling. Value was only around $240k, 2 br places were around $280-300k.

Found someone after 2 months at $10 less a week.

Had a look last night. Only 1br is $330k (renovated) and a bunch of 2br places between $320-360k.

Earlier this year a 2br place went for $26X.

The lower end looks strong.

Top end looks stable.

Middle ground seems to be where a drop will be if at all.

Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

Yeah...the commentators are saying prices are holding...for now...because everyone is scared and there are very few on the market selling....when jobkeeper runs out will be the litmus test apparently.

Keep filling that bag of popcorn and let's wait and see.

Anybody know of anyone unemployed with a mortgage at the ,moment is the question?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by BA-XT

This.

Our rent was $360 a week or $18k a year.... makes my eyes water thinking about it now. Say our $475k house dropped by say 5% for a year.... still better off buying because it will bounce back up. Our long term growth is around eight percent.

Oh? wages haven't been going up by 8% long term, where do you reckon the money will be coming from to keep that ball rolling along?

When you say drop by 5% a year do you mean they drop by 5% as well as not achieving the 8% compounding...cause that is 13%

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by BA-XT

This.

Our rent was $360 a week or $18k a year.... makes my eyes water thinking about it now. Say our $475k house dropped by say 5% for a year.... still better off buying because it will bounce back up. Our long term growth is around eight percent.

I just sold my house and mortgage repayments actually LESS than it would cost to rent.

If not for personal reasons I should have kept as an investment property but I needed to let it go.

[Franco Cozzo]

Those of you who live in SA - what's the opinions on Gawler region? Is that still Adelaide or is it the regional fringe of Adelaide?

Doesn't seem far out, like Sunbury region here in Melbourne being about 40km North of Melbourne.

There's a heap of 'over 50s' retirement living advertised in some place called Hillier - I could breathe some life into that joint