Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Just heard that the clowns who organised that one are planning another one for this weekend in Newtown (inner city suburb)

There was someone on TV gloating that they are expecting 3 times the number of people as last week. I would be very surprised if authoraties don't have their people signed up to those encrypted groups organising the protests.
If they start to see lot of people in the morning, they should throttle the public transport system.

Interesting though, it's been a week now and no mass numbers of cases from last week.

[DoubleTrouble]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Interesting though, it's been a week now and no mass numbers of cases from last week.

Why would there be? you listening to the government's propaganda.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by DoubleTrouble

Why would there be? you listening to the government's propaganda.

IMHO the fleetingness of this variant has been overused as an excuse for poor response management.

I look at the cases from the MCG and AAMI stadium, only a handful of people go it. If it really was that contagious we should have seen hundreds or thousands of cases. Then you look at Young and Jacksons, more should have got it. Then there is that pub on Lygon st, 400 people going nuts watching EURO finals, in a confined space, not many got it.

So...what are we missing?

[DJR-351]

Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection, CDC document warns

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coron...vere-in_300721

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across Greater Sydney and around the world appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal document from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

The document - a slide presentation - outlines unpublished data that shows fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people.

CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky confirmed the authenticity of the document, which was first reported by The Washington Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...mask-guidance/

"I think people need to understand that we're not crying wolf here. This is serious," she told CNN.

"It's one of the most transmissible viruses we know about. Measles, chickenpox, this - they're all up there."

The CDC is scheduled to publish data today that will back Dr Walensky's controversial decision to change guidance for fully vaccinated people.

She said on Tuesday that the CDC was recommending that even fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors in places where transmission of the virus is sustained or high.

And she said everyone in schools - students, staff and visitors - should wear masks at all times.

"The measures we need to get this under control - they're extreme. The measures you need are extreme," Dr Walensky told CNN.

She said the data in the report did not surprise her.

"It was the synthesis of the data all in one place that was sobering," she said.

The CDC presentation says the Delta variant is about as transmissible as chickenpox, with each infected person, on average, infecting eight or nine others.

The original lineage was about as transmissible as the common cold, with each infected person passing the virus to about two other people on average.
That infectivity is known as R0.

"When you think about diseases that have an R0 of eight or nine - there aren't that many," Dr Walensky told CNN.

And if vaccinated people get infected anyway, they have as much virus in their bodies as unvaccinated people.

That means they're as likely to infect someone else as unvaccinated people who get infected.

"The bottom line was that, in contrast to the other variants, vaccinated people, even if they didn't get sick, got infected and shed virus at similar levels as unvaccinated people who got infected," Dr Walter Orenstein, who heads the Emory Vaccine Center and who viewed the documents, told CNN.

But vaccinated people are safer, the document indicates.

"Vaccines prevent more than 90 per cent of severe disease, but may be less effective at preventing infection or transmission," it reads.

"Therefore, more breakthrough and more community spread despite vaccination."

It says vaccines reduce the risk of severe disease or death 10-fold and reduce the risk of infection three-fold.

The presentation also cites three reports that indicate the Delta variant - originally known as B.1.617.2 - might cause more severe disease.

The CDC, the document advises, should "acknowledge the war has change".
It recommends vaccine mandates and universal mask requirements.

The virus is once against surging across the US - especially in areas where fewer people are vaccinated.

The US averaged more than 61,300 new daily cases over the last week - an average that's generally risen since the country hit a 2021 low of 11,299 daily cases on June 22, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

"The number of cases we have now is higher than any number we had on any given day last summer," Dr Walensky told CNN.

As of Wednesday, cases have risen in all but one state in the past seven days compared with the week before, according to Johns Hopkins.

"The one thing I will say is I've been heartened in the past couple of days to see more people taking action in response to the fact that it's bad -- more organisations, businesses, states, localities taking the action that's needed to get us out of this," Dr Walensky said.

The CDC document walks through new "communication challenges" as a result of breakthrough infections, along with the need to retool public health messaging to highlight vaccination as the best defence against the Delta variant.

The agency should "improve (the) public's understanding of breakthrough infections" and "improve communications around individual risk among vaccinated," it says.

Earlier today, President Joe Biden announced a number of new steps his administration will take to try to get more Americans vaccinated, including requiring that all federal employees must attest to being vaccinated against COVID-19 or face strict protocols.

"This is an American tragedy. People are dying - and will die - who don't have to die. If you're out there unvaccinated, you don't have to die," Mr Biden said during remarks at the White House.

"Read the news. You'll see stories of unvaccinated patients in hospitals, as they're lying in bed dying from COVID-19, they're asking, 'Doc, can I get the vaccine?' The doctors have to say, 'Sorry, it's too late.' "

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Unfortunately, it seems as though there may be more deaths than just those who are curerently in hospital, if this report is right:



From the blog here.

Tragic indeed.

People are presenting to the hospital dead
?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

A bit better than Geelong eh?

lived in Torquay for 20 years had an esplanade address and 100 acres out back...now a sheet hole...full of self entitled footballers.

Geelong? Even Ford got out of the place...

On the news tonight, Tasmania declared as one of the top 5 places to survive a major societal catastrophe. (virus,climate.war...etc etc)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...apse/100333892

BTW...no covid here...no masks..no restrictions...cya!


.

[MITCHAY]

National cabinet agrees in principal to 70% fully vaccinated target rate to ease restrictions and 80% to end lock downs

<15% right now so gonna be a while yet. And as we have seen these decisions have no binding on the members. Remember it wasn't about elimination to begin with either

We have hit 12m total doses. I think we have increased by 4m in one month so definitely trending upwards by a fair amount.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

IMHO the fleetingness of this variant has been overused as an excuse for poor response management.

I look at the cases from the MCG and AAMI stadium, only a handful of people go it. If it really was that contagious we should have seen hundreds or thousands of cases. Then you look at Young and Jacksons, more should have got it. Then there is that pub on Lygon st, 400 people going nuts watching EURO finals, in a confined space, not many got it.

So...what are we missing?

It's very selective, it only seems too appear wherever you find high ground pollution, if it's a stadium or pub it don't matter, if the air you breath is purer than the next suburb that's a hotspot then that's why!..only an opinion.



Cheers Billy

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

People are presenting to the hospital dead
?

I read it that the family decided late in the illness to take their family member to the hospital, but by the time they made it, the person had passed away.

I've been thinking about this a bit, and I wonder if it's a cultural thing? Firstly, with all of the advertising around getting tested if you have covid symptoms, why wouldn't you get tested once the symptoms were displayed? Second, once things got so bad that you decided that medical treatment was required, why would you decide to take your relative to the hospital yourself in lieu of calling an ambulance?

Some nationalities may not trust the authorities in Australia as those born in Australia might. They also may have a tendency to look after their family themselves as opposed to relying on the medical system to look after relatives.

If so, is this part of the reason as to why compliance with the restrictions in Sydney us not as high as the authorities would like?

[prydey]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

IMHO the fleetingness of this variant has been overused as an excuse for poor response management.

I look at the cases from the MCG and AAMI stadium, only a handful of people go it. If it really was that contagious we should have seen hundreds or thousands of cases. Then you look at Young and Jacksons, more should have got it. Then there is that pub on Lygon st, 400 people going nuts watching EURO finals, in a confined space, not many got it.

So...what are we missing?

I've asked this same question myself at home. The only thing I can think of is that the terminology is slightly misleading, mainly with how the media use it.

I think the difference is between the use of 'can' and 'does'. In other words, the virus 'can' be transmitted by marginal contact but that doesn't mean it is being transmitted everywhere like that. Otherwise, like you say, the numbers should be much higher. That's the only explanation I can come up with.

As for no spike in cases, didn't nsw jump up, or was that just the way the trend was going?

Either way, I don't think anyone has all the answers yet. Some countries are prepared to sacrifice some human lives for freedom. Australia isn't one of them. Which way is correct will depend on whether you're affected by death or not.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

National cabinet agrees in principal to 70% fully vaccinated target rate to ease restrictions and 80% to end lock downs

<15% right now so gonna be a while yet. And as we have seen these decisions have no binding on the members. Remember it wasn't about elimination to begin with either

We have hit 12m total doses. I think we have increased by 4m in one month so definitely trending upwards by a fair amount.

Very optimistic targets. Even the US and UK aren't anywhere near it. Combination of supply and logistics is going to make it difficult.....unless of course Australians just say "fek it I'll get the AZ", but it hasn't been recommended by ATAGI for those under 50 unless you are in a hotspot. Hmmmmm

It sounds like international caps won't be changing for a long long time then. And those locked down LGAs won't be seeing freedom for a while either if Gov maintains their "vaccination is our way out" strategy.

I was expecting to see something like 40% for phase B and 70% for phase C.

[MITCHAY]

Yeah I reckon we have no chance of that. I'd say that was heavily influenced by some states.

ACT, NT, Tas going hard naturally but ACT stats are distorted a bit since about 10% of those are actually NSW residents getting it here

Truth be told like I said a while back I called up to register for a jab but it was busy and I hung up thinking I would just try again later but since then I just forgot to call back

It's really not worth worrying about here at the moment and it won't be long where you could just get in easy if the supply picks up as expected, roughly double I think.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The ADF could always misunderstand, sending military bands to help… Or maybe Israel can send some of their soldiers. That will flummox Avi.

First A-Z shot tomorrow, got to admit the media hubbub has given me a little more apprehension than I should have. That said, not backing away - it’s like enlistment; I’m doing it mostly for others.

You sound depressed/negative. The upcoming stress will take it's toll. That will end you before covid.

No shot's for me. No flu shots either.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

IMHO the fleetingness of this variant has been overused as an excuse for poor response management.

I look at the cases from the MCG and AAMI stadium, only a handful of people go it. If it really was that contagious we should have seen hundreds or thousands of cases. Then you look at Young and Jacksons, more should have got it. Then there is that pub on Lygon st, 400 people going nuts watching EURO finals, in a confined space, not many got it.

So...what are we missing?

It's always been indoors that is the biggest risk.

Look at that birthday party with over 30 guests where just about everyone who wasn't vaccinated caught it from just one infected person.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc...icle/100249612

Or the funeral where over 40 people caught it.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.new...c92242160e03a8

[auaust99]

I got no immune system due to transplants,every year people with "just a cold" or "a bit of flue" nearly kill me when I end up with pneumonia,and cost the hospital thousands to treat me.I had my two covid shots,they won't stop me getting covid but they will stop it being as bad.same as my flue shot.I'm in Tas,I know its coming stronger than last year,and it won't take long to spread across this little state.its hitting harder and faster every where else than they tell you.the govt try not to panic us,and cover their stuff ups,to keep our vote they try to keep our faith in their leadership.if youre one of the many people that are going to get it,wouldn't you at least want extra protection?none of us know if we get it if well survive or become a statistic.what about people like me,or my mum,or your mum?I think antivaxers have a kind of madness or something.Im pretty sure they look b4 they cross the road,wear seatbelts and strap the kids in.lots we do just in case,yet when it comes to vaccine and mass gatherings they don't care.or maybe they think they're too tough,or too young?never thought I see this kind of attitude in Australia to something so dangerous.our diggers stuck together and watched each others backs,these days people fight over toilet paper.where's our Aussie spirit mates?who's got your back?

[Ratmick]

Originally Posted by auaust99

I got no immune system due to transplants,every year people with "just a cold" or "a bit of flue" nearly kill me when I end up with pneumonia,and cost the hospital thousands to treat me.I had my two covid shots,they won't stop me getting covid but they will stop it being as bad.same as my flue shot.I'm in Tas,I know its coming stronger than last year,and it won't take long to spread across this little state.its hitting harder and faster every where else than they tell you.the govt try not to panic us,and cover their stuff ups,to keep our vote they try to keep our faith in their leadership.if youre one of the many people that are going to get it,wouldn't you at least want extra protection?none of us know if we get it if well survive or become a statistic.what about people like me,or my mum,or your mum?I think antivaxers have a kind of madness or something.Im pretty sure they look b4 they cross the road,wear seatbelts and strap the kids in.lots we do just in case,yet when it comes to vaccine and mass gatherings they don't care.or maybe they think they're too tough,or too young?never thought I see this kind of attitude in Australia to something so dangerous.our diggers stuck together and watched each others backs,these days people fight over toilet paper.where's our Aussie spirit mates?who's got your back?

You take care of yourself mate and stay away from the crazies that think this is a joke and some sort of sick conspiracy.

Really at this time you're going to have to look after #1.

My missus has a donor kidney and as such with her medication her immune system is screwed...and she works in an Aged Care home.

She was told if she caught COVID there was a greater than 1:5 chance it would kill her. Luckily she didn't (and she's still working) but she did work through the wave that went like a dose of salts through the nursing homes and came through the other side a bit mentally scarred even though her workplace wasn't that badly affected.

All the residents were vaccinated after that wave, she managed to get herself done at the time the residents had their second dose and had her second dose 3w ago (the same time I had my first). I have my second on Sunday. My daughter was an early adopter of AZ before they limited its use for young people and has had both doses...which given she's has been travelling in every day since March last year on public transport makes me feel a bit less worried.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

People are presenting to the hospital dead
?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

I read it that the family decided late in the illness to take their family member to the hospital, but by the time they made it, the person had passed away.

I've been thinking about this a bit, and I wonder if it's a cultural thing? Firstly, with all of the advertising around getting tested if you have covid symptoms, why wouldn't you get tested once the symptoms were displayed? Second, once things got so bad that you decided that medical treatment was required, why would you decide to take your relative to the hospital yourself in lieu of calling an ambulance?

Some nationalities may not trust the authorities in Australia as those born in Australia might. They also may have a tendency to look after their family themselves as opposed to relying on the medical system to look after relatives.

If so, is this part of the reason as to why compliance with the restrictions in Sydney us not as high as the authorities would like?

And why all "new" Australians should have a codicil attached to their residency status paper, either learn English and, be self dependent of others in your closed family, who's logic may be based on 15th or 16th century beliefs, who may have a cultural system based on Matriarch or Patriarchal thought systems, systems that should of been upgraded as the people's progress technologically.

Be taught that they have to leave all past enmity in their old country, all hatred too.
Even Australians need to stop living in a "we are better than that" State of mind, most newer and current until recently refugees, may have moved countries, but they brought their countries State on mind here, and it is a collective thing, but also dangerous when they believe "witch doctors" from their own country cast defensive spells, "true"!

When I was in the a NT in the late 70's early 80's we were warned that every Vietnamese boat person was infected with TB, I was vaccinated at school but was given boosters because my TA's were Vietnamese?...I found them to be hard workers, if you were watching them, but I get back to Cabramatta and it was like Little Chinatown, there was no mention of TB anywhere!

Disease and virus are insidious, age,religion race or creed, no problems, if it's going to infect you it will, but in my opinion it depends just were you are at a particular time on a particular day, in a particular place, "hotspot"



Cheers Billy

[DJR-351]

I received this article/video from my cousin who is a retired nurse and who worked in this hospital in Birmingham Alabama while in the US years ago.

I think it's a great insight from a medical professional dealing with un-vaccinated COVID victims in end of life situations and dealing with the family's left behind, In my opinion it's definitely worth a read no matter whether your an anti-vaxxer or not, she (the doctor) is also a COVID survivor herself having contracted the virus while pregnant.

https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/im-s...-patients.html

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

I received this article/video from my cousin who is a retired nurse and who worked in this hospital in Birmingham Alabama while in the US years ago.

I think it's a great insight from a medical professional dealing with un-vaccinated COVID victims in end of life situations and dealing with the family's left behind, In my opinion it's definitely worth a read no matter whether your an anti-vaxxer or not, she (the doctor) is also a COVID survivor herself having contracted the virus while pregnant.

https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/im-s...-patients.html

Nearly two years of articles exactly like this one and we still have people saying out loud things like 'it's just a seasonal flu', 'chances of death are slim', 'it's just a hoax'.
You could put out an article like this once a day and the only thing it will accomplish is to further push people into their respective echo chambers.

On a tangent, if Covid really was a hoax, that would be the best news humanity has ever had. In order to get every world leader to agree on the same thing all at once, we're closer to world piece than we've ever been.
Bring on the Covid Hoax, I reckon.

[MITCHAY]

Another snap lockdown for SE QLD . Do people actually think a 3 day lock down achieves anything?

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 30th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

183 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 2.722%.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.906%.

The UK had a lower 29,213 cases yesterday and lower 68 deaths for a CMR of 2.222%.

A higher 97,249 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 421 deaths sees CMR at 1.766%.

Other notable points:
Yesterday was the 3rd day over 600k cases since May 21st;

Iceland (139) on the 29/7;
Eswatini (667);
Kazakhstan (7,778) - the 9th consecutive day; and
Japan (10,697);

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period none drop below.

[MITCHAY]

Ah get ****ed. NRL cancelled this weekend.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Another snap lockdown for SE QLD . Do people actually think a 3 day lock down achieves anything?

Yes. It allows contact tracers a chance to get on top of things without the situation continuing to worsen.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by prydey

Yes. It allows contact tracers a chance to get on top of things without the situation continuing to worsen.

On top of **** all cases?

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

On top of **** all cases?

Maybe it’s someone else’s fault for “not listening” ?

[prydey]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

On top of **** all cases?

You'd prefer a nsw approach and let it get out of hand first?

SA locked down over 1 community case. That resulted in over 4000 people in quarantine as close contacts, and nearly 20000 in isolation, as secondary contacts.

You can't afford to dilly dally. Every state bar one understands that.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

On top of **** all cases?

Especially on top of **** all cases.
It really shouldn't have taken a scientific study to prove that an early lockdown has a better chance of success than a late one...

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743

In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence ... compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place ...

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

On top of **** all cases?

Gives them time to catch up. Takes time to interview, list all the exposure sites, then to contact the people that were at those sites. Only really needed if someone presents late, spent a few days in the community, or if they went to 50 different stores in a day.

[russellw]

My 30 day cases v mortalities review for the UK ended yesterday and while it only compares cases from 15-30 days ago with deaths in the last 15 days to allow for some delay, it's better than nothing.

In the cases date range they had 221,986 at an average of 14,800 per day.
In the deaths date range they had 990 at an average of 66 per day.
That's a crude CMR of 0.446% and the best indication yet of what mortality rates might look like in the future 'normal' where >70% of the population are vaccinated.

How that pans out for other countries will largely depend on their vaccination rates and quality of health care but let's see what it means for the UK.

In the next 15 day period, the UK average case numbers have been 23,791 per day so at the 0.446% CMR that's 106 deaths per day or about 38,000 per annum.

Compared to deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia combined, the annual 10 year average for the UK is 27,035 although it should be noted that (1) 2020 was well down on those numbers at a little over 14k; and (2) the majority of those are listed as Pneumonia.

That's probably close to what we are going to have to accept as the new normal much as we do with Influenza and just how bad that is globally will entirely depend on total case numbers. At at the current 10-day average rate of infections (globally 576k per day) a 0.446% CMR would mean close to 1M deaths per annum which is somewhere between two and four times as many as the WHO estimate for global deaths from influenza and associated conditions.