Australia housing bubble

[Sprintey]

Was working all around Adelaide metro and SA country in the 2000s
Quite liked it. To the south you could be up in the hills and farms (great driving roads) within about 20mins from the CBD. Got stuck in traffic on the South Rd many times... Going north, worked all through it up past Elizabeth and into the Wine regions (Clare valley is pretty too). As far as I can see, there's a heap of defence work going on in SA. If going north Franco, take the Lebonator!

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zilo

makes you think something is "brewing"

I just read that something like 500,000 people emptied their superannuation accounts since the government let them. Wait til September hits and Jobkeeper winds up. It's the section of the market that's predominantly populated by renters. New housing approvals are their lowest in 7 years, give that a few more months and we're going to start seeing builders going belly up en masse. No amount of building stimulus is going to put a renter in a house if they have no job....

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Was working all around Adelaide metro and SA country in the 2000s
Quite liked it. To the south you could be up in the hills and farms (great driving roads) within about 20mins from the CBD. Got stuck in traffic on the South Rd many times... Going north, worked all through it up past Elizabeth and into the Wine regions (Clare valley is pretty too). As far as I can see, there's a heap of defence work going on in SA. If going north Franco, take the Lebonator!

It's very fitting that I'll fit in like a glove with it in Adelaide's northern suburbs just as well as Melbourne's

It'll be staying registered in VIC though I think, rego is about $200 cheaper if it stays as a VIC car.

I think next time I'm in SA I'm going to be doing a bit of driving around and scoping out some suburbs and regions.

I like the hills as it reminds me of here but I'm not that fond of bushfires.

Originally Posted by pottery beige

paddocks

ride on / sheep / ride on

can rock big sheds

Seems to be about the same price as Northern suburbs Adelaide even though it's regional - is there something special about it?

Does SA get regional rego discounts like we do in VIC?

Is there an advantage to living on the regional outskirts out of the Adelaide metropolitan area compared to living within?

I already know the downside of living in Melbourne's rural fringe

[MercuryT]

Pottery Biege.

Sheep riding no doubt.

Also his wife.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It'll be staying registered in VIC though I think, rego is about $200 cheaper if it stays as a VIC car.

Does SA get regional rego discounts like we do in VIC?

Franco, got my Vicroads rego papers yesterday for the MH and its $10 cheaper than last year.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by zilo

This is an interesting story on just what is in store for the property experts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_dAMAwne9U

This video is confirming my suspicions Ive had at the beginning of the pandemic.

I was going to build a new home this year, now I think its a mistake even with the 25k building grant. The sale of my existing home will take a massive hit when it comes time to sell. So the grant barely creates a dent in the loss.

[78xcgxl]

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

[Mulva]

@Franco...Two Wells, Angle Vale, Virginia etc offer much bigger blocks compared to the Northern Suburbs that they are only a few minutes away from. Although they are in Adelaide's rural fringes they are on 'The Plains' and therefore much easier to defend against bushfire compared to 'The Hills' (Mt Lofty Ranges).

They aren't that much further up the road from Adelaide's outer suburbs, not much further in KM's nor time as you are travelling at open road speeds, and the Northern Connector has made those towns and outer northern suburbs much closer timewise than what they were last year.

Last year my sister picked up a 5 bedroom 3 bathroom house built in 2008 on 1900+ square metre block within township of Angle Vale for $435k. 2 large living areas, separate meals area and dining room, double garage under main roof is 7.5m wide by 8.5m deep, large shed with 3-phase power, ensuite has spa and is bigger than the second bedroom in my house. Was advertised for $490k but they got price down a bit as it was not presented very well and needed bit of clean-up/tidy-up. At open listings the dining room had a pulled-down Harley in it, and it was filthy...needed paint throughout and carpets replaced, and yards were completely over-grown. Was only 11 years old and structually sound, just needed few $k on carpets, paint and landscaping.

[Mulva]

Think it was one of those opportunities where you can do well if they are selling due to one of the 3 D's...Deceased, Divorced or De-bank.

[guzzis3]

This article is concise and readable but packs some interesting information into it. Note that property was cheaper in 1885 than 1900, and that chart is Australia not just Melbourne which was the center of that collapse.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-h...bF2cmLGQ2_u8Dg

[b0son]

Originally Posted by blueoval

I was going to build a new home this year, now I think its a mistake even with the 25k building grant. The sale of my existing home will take a massive hit when it comes time to sell. So the grant barely creates a dent in the loss.

Same. Rental yields before covid-19 were crap in Sydney at 3%. By the time land had registered and construction finished, we'd have been looking at Sept-Nov before we could have had a tenant in. No way we'd have been getting anything like 3% in all likelihood, and why wear such a crap return while the property isnt appreciating, and probably wont for minimum 1-2 years? I'd rather park my deposit in a term deposit for the next 1-2 years and look again once borders start reopening and the population starts growing again. The amount of empty properties in Sydney right now is pretty staggering.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Mulva

@Franco...Two Wells, Angle Vale, Virginia etc offer much bigger blocks compared to the Northern Suburbs that they are only a few minutes away from. Although they are in Adelaide's rural fringes they are on 'The Plains' and therefore much easier to defend against bushfire compared to 'The Hills' (Mt Lofty Ranges).

They aren't that much further up the road from Adelaide's outer suburbs, not much further in KM's nor time as you are travelling at open road speeds, and the Northern Connector has made those towns and outer northern suburbs much closer timewise than what they were last year.

Last year my sister picked up a 5 bedroom 3 bathroom house built in 2008 on 1900+ square metre block within township of Angle Vale for $435k. 2 large living areas, separate meals area and dining room, double garage under main roof is 7.5m wide by 8.5m deep, large shed with 3-phase power, ensuite has spa and is bigger than the second bedroom in my house. Was advertised for $490k but they got price down a bit as it was not presented very well and needed bit of clean-up/tidy-up. At open listings the dining room had a pulled-down Harley in it, and it was filthy...needed paint throughout and carpets replaced, and yards were completely over-grown. Was only 11 years old and structually sound, just needed few $k on carpets, paint and landscaping.

Angle Vale seems to have some large properties available - check out this one:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...vale-132937582

2000m2, sheds and concrete as far as the eye can see

Trucks, trailers and earth moving equipment in the back? Even prepared the neighbors for what living next to me would be like

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ilda-132044142

Or this with the pirate ship and massive slides a short walk away

[MercuryT]

Adelaide a great spot.

Easy to navigate, cheap accom at Glenelg in brilliant hotel.

I liked it.

Vics crap on about St Kilda and so on.

Not even comparable and Tassie another step above.

[zilo]

A couple of guys calling it like it is.

One is a successful trader other is a statistical analyst.

talk about property, shares, unemployment.....

It doesn't sound good....

The full screen version is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysqGA3FZd_g

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Polyal

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

I hear what you're saying. For the record I have an investment property, but made it an investment property as a part of my SMSF. So not in it to negatively gear, but in it to secure my retirement when the time comes. I found having Super in shares and other areas was too risky and I wanted my hard earned to go into something a little more stable.

[John 13]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

Some of us who been through the property investment cycle have been fortunate, that was years ago. It's getting more complex now a significant part of the investment money is not part of the Australian economy and so the link between domestic housing pricing and the local economy, particularly in capital cities, rarely applies. The latest calamity has spawned another of John Howard's "Housing led recovery" responses.
The outcome will likely play out over the decade provided our world drops back onto it's axis !

[zilo]

Some great news today, banks are extending the mortgage holiday for another 4 months....

It's a win, win, win, win (that's four wins for 4 banks)


So...what was a 30 year mortgage has already become a 35 year...

add another 4 months holiday and it becomes.....


A FORTY year mortgage....

wow...just wow...

[MercuryT]

I sold up so now driving my Parent's mad.

Banks aren't being too bad Zilo.

Sure some self interest (in both ways) but clients require support.

I think individuals to companies (unlike certain sectors like Building secfor highly (stupidly imo) propped up) are feeling it.

[MercuryT]

I'm genuinely thinking of buying Land (in a battling spot....plenty going down) and then buy a Caravan to live on it.

Seriously as Land maybe 300, Caravan 50 to 70 - beach front property.

[Mulva]

You'll find a few threads on here about getting land and a caravan, with added bonus of tips on how to make friends and meet women when you can't drive far because your car might not make it.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I'm genuinely thinking of buying Land (in a battling spot....plenty going down) and then buy a Caravan to live on it.

Seriously as Land maybe 300, Caravan 50 to 70 - beach front property.

What about Ravenswood? Cheap houses there, and far enough from your parents they can’t mess with you. There was one I looked hard at a couple of years ago, no bites at $60K - needed a lot of remedial work. But a house, on its own land, 20 minutes by pushie from Launceston CBD.

[Polyal]

When we lived in Lonnie I am sure a Ravenswood was labelled the bronx.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

What about Ravenswood? Cheap houses there, and far enough from your parents they can’t mess with you. There was one I looked hard at a couple of years ago, no bites at $60K - needed a lot of remedial work. But a house, on its own land, 20 minutes by pushie from Launceston CBD.

Ha........not a bad suggestion. Driven through Ravo a few times when younger.

Sadly no work up there for me to make it happen!

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Polyal

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

I often have this discussion at work and I'm not looking to buy an investment property ever and people think I'm nuts.

I'm just not interested in bricks and mortar unless it is a home. I'm lucky that I have been able to buy my own.

As far as I'm concerned I think any perk should only apply if it increases supply, not simply trading hands. With the perk should come risk also.

That's just what I think. I don't judge those who simply play the game. I don't hate the player.

Originally Posted by zilo

Some great news today, banks are extending the mortgage holiday for another 4 months....

It's a win, win, win, win (that's four wins for 4 banks)


So...what was a 30 year mortgage has already become a 35 year...

add another 4 months holiday and it becomes.....


A FORTY year mortgage....

wow...just wow...

Not great but what is the alternative mate? About as altruistic as banks are likely to get.

A bunch of people foreclosing ain't going to do them any good either.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Mulva

You'll find a few threads on here about getting land and a caravan, with added bonus of tips on how to make friends and meet women when you can't drive far because your car might not make it.

I have no idea what that reference is but I'm keen to look it up! ha

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I have no idea what that reference is but I'm keen to look it up! ha

Another member on this forum asking funny questions in many threads

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Another member on this forum asking funny questions in many threads

I usually look at those posts and thinking WTF? Either the best troll ever or just a bloke who has a few difficulties in life and doing their best in it. I think the later is true.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I have no idea what that reference is but I'm keen to look it up! ha

Anyone else feeling guilty about not stopping MercT before it's too late - kind of like when you know there is a spiderweb but you let someone walk into it to see them do that spiderweb-dance where they beat themselves up to kill the possible spider, wherever he may be.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I usually look at those posts and thinking WTF? Either the best troll ever or just a bloke who has a few difficulties in life and doing their best in it. I think the later is true.

Yep this part, we tend to give him a fair bit of leeway. Even Franco behaves himself in those threads