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#13591 | |||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Quote:
![]() Cheers Billy |
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#13592 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,974
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I would nominate the 1970 national road toll, indexed for population increase, as being an upper limit of deaths from a single cause, which could be socially absorbed.
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#13593 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,564
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Quote:
This virus will spread and we will have to live with the consquences. Hope I'm wrong but time will tell. |
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#13594 | ||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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Just got informed by my eldest (who is a surgeon operating in Sydney),
that they are now using a Covid tester that does not involve a swab, just a saliva test. It takes 15 minutes for the result....and is very accurate. That is a game changer I reckon.
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#13595 | |||
Former BTIKD
![]() Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sunny Downtown Wagga Wagga. NSW.
Posts: 53,197
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Quote:
1034 being the road toll for 1969 or 1970.
__________________
Dying at your job is natures way of saying that you're in the wrong line of work.
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#13596 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,974
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Must have been the state road toll, as national road toll from the late ‘60s to the late ‘70s was 3000+. Everyone knew of someone who’d died or been significantly injured in a car accident; that was the perspective I strived to endow.
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#13597 | |||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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Quote:
Victoria the first state in the world to do so.
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#13598 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
This will be one of the harshest decisions of the century. For me the only answer is everyone who wants a vaccine gets one, when we reach that point the resulting number will be whatever it is. I was more asking what those who want to open up right now and run the gauntlet, what their number was. They are quick to say others a sheep and watch this you tube video blah blah blah, but pretty thin on saying what they believe will be the result of their wishes/beliefs. Be it nothing happens and it was a sham, right through to survival of the fittest.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#13599 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,049
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Quote:
It's a bit early to make a call on Israel yet as the current (derestricted) wave is only in the early stages having started in mid July and it is still growing. What can be determined is that the last 2 weeks of July saw average case numbers at ~1,700 per day and those are what translate to the deaths per day we are currently seeing. It's a bit rough but the last 12 days of July had 21k cases and the first 12 days of August has 176 deaths which is a CMR of 0.838% or about twice what we are seeing in other high vax rate countries but also higher than the CMR for Israel across the whole pandemic to date. The current 12 day period in August has upped the daily case rate significantly with an average of 4,121 cases per day but we'll need to wait for the next two weeks to pas before we get a picture of what that mortality rate is like. What can be extrapolated from the data is this: - If the CMR remains at 0.838% then the 49,549 cases over the last 12 days will result in another 415 deaths; and - There is no sign (yet) of those case numbers reducing although they presumably will at some point. Even if the case numbers halve or the CMR halves to about the UK/Florida level that is still going to amount to something like 6,000 deaths per annum which is 100 deaths per 100k of adult population. In Australian terms, where our adult population is 3x the 6M of Israel, that would means something like 18k deaths per annum and I guarantee we wouldn't wear that.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#13600 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,049
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The National road toll in 1970 was 3,798 or 30.4 per 100k of our much smaller population. With our current population that would equate to 7,775 deaths or about 8x the current rate which is 3.6/100k.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#13601 | ||
Former BTIKD
![]() Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sunny Downtown Wagga Wagga. NSW.
Posts: 53,197
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I think the 1034 figure was the Victorian road toll
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Dying at your job is natures way of saying that you're in the wrong line of work.
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#13602 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,900
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Surely I can't be the only one on this thread who knows of relatively healthy people dying of covid?
2 weeks ago mum got a message from her old high school friend that she had caught covid. In her 60s, no pre-existing conditions. No hospital beds available where she is at. Gone in a week. The husband tested positive a week ago. Knocked him out but was recovering. 3 days ago he sent photos around the class whatsapp group showing that he was recovering well and in good spirits. Last night, got a message from the son saying his dad lost the fight. Sudden deterioration is not unheard of with Delta. Not sure on their vaccination status.
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. ![]() |
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#13603 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,219
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I noted this in the NSW presser today:
Quote:
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#13604 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
if the median age of those who die is over 70. I haven't bought in too much to the die of/die with debate, but if it is predominantly taking people who were in their last 5 years who had serious complications then we would have to be pragmatic. The vaccine may protect 95%, but I am not sure what it will do for someone who is already on the knife edge. On the other hand, if it is averaging in the 40's I would agree with you.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#13605 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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Quote:
Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the common cold, with rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, adenoviruses and enteroviruses being the most common. Yes the rhinovirus is the most common so what their traits are similar. DO you think long term we can keep the virus out? How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy? Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus? |
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#13606 | ||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Lung Cancer is an example of what we call an acceptable compromise. Ave age of those who die is 74, nearly 9000 a year, 25 a day. And yet cigarettes are legal, you can smoke in the street. Admittedly it is hard to catch from someone else except for passive smoking. If we lost 25 ave age 30 year olds each year I think laws would change faster than what they have.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#13607 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,219
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Here's the NSW's Premier's view of when we live with COVID. No details on death rates though.
NSW: 'Living with COVID' will only happen once 80 per cent of the community is double dosed Premier Gladys Berejiklian addressed speculations about reopening in September: "I want to make very clear that what we want to achieve in September and October is provide some opportunities for people to have an extra thing they can do, which they currently can't do today. I don't want to give the impression that it will be freedom all round," Ms Berejiklian said. "It will not be freedom all round until it is 70 per cent double doses, at least, and 80 per cent is when we learn to live with COVID. "Having said that, I think all of us have got to come to terms with what living with COVID means. Once you get 80 per cent double doses it essentially means whoever isn't vaccinated, and whoever chooses not to be vaccinated by that point, because by that point everybody will have had the opportunity to be offered the vaccine, living with COVID is very different to what we're doing now. "At the moment we are trying to get the numbers down as much as we can, trying to make sure that the case numbers don't accelerate exponentially. It is very, very concerning when you see the case numbers are going up. I want to make very clear that the Doherty report says you have to get to 70 per cent double doses before you can really start living freely, and then 80 per cent double dose before you can actually live with COVID. We support that."
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#13608 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,049
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 12th 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 376 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.508%. 9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.893%. The UK had a higher 32,706 cases yesterday and lower 94 deaths for a CMR of 2.115%. A higher 149,344 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 616 deaths sees CMR at 1.715%. Other notable points: Global cases pass 206M, the last 1M in 1 day; Asia passes 65M cases; French Polynesia (1,443) on 9/11; Japan (15,792); Malaysia (21,668); Mexico (22,711) - the previous high on 12/1/21; and Thailand (22,782) ... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. El Salvador moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Kyrgyzstan drops below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#13609 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,049
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Quote:
In response to your questions: DO you think long term we can keep the virus out? In the long term, I frankly don't know. In the mid-term, I don't think we can keep it out and there is certainly a point at which we are going to have to accept some rate of mortalities in the way we do with Influenza now. How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy? Frankly, I think we will continue to have to lockdown until we reach the 80% mark if only to keep case numbers manageable because unvaccinated people are going to start filling hospital beds at a rate we aren't equipped to handle otherwise. Even at 80%, there is going to be a period where things will look really bad with high case volumes and mortality numbers much as we are seeing in the UK but we might just have to bite the bullet and accept that although I'd be surprised if any Federal Government would do so this side of the next election. Or maybe we just take the hard road and say 'if they aren't vaxxed it's their own silly fault and if something like 0.5% of those 3.6M adults (18,000) end up dead then tough'. Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus? Realistically I can't. I agree there is one but under the rules applicable to MMT (Modern Money Theory) that may be a really big number.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#13610 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 589
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Apart from the 'acceptable number of deaths' angle, another issue is the 'how many other medical interventions that are delayed due to IC wards being full' number.
And that's assuming that an even more infectious and deadly variant doesn't evolve. |
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#13611 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
I can see Morrison wanting to open up start of December. Start of summer. We go really well, small outbreaks that peter out. He goes for a March election on the back of "we beat the virus and only lost 1000 people, best real country in the world" (sorry NZ!). He wins Winter hits, 500 cases a day start of May becomes 10000 cases a day by the end of it. Morrison says "get vaccinated" or take your own risk. Call me a cynic!
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#13612 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 7,698
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That was just the Victorian road toll too. DECA's post office box number was 1034
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I reserve the right to arm bears
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#13613 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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Quote:
The Federal government really has no control over lockdowns or other suppressing tactics, although they will get the blame. Judging by the Vic gov actions another 18 months and 200 dyas of lockdown seems possible. |
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#13614 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Pharmaceutical companies will not let this virus die!...they will continue on with research, they will milk every possible red cent from the monetary system and will never stop!...not until the bottom line turns red.
And the market will then be hit with every possible product that " slows or helps you " stay well for the rest of your life, its never ending, the pursuit of wealth never ends, the only way around the inflation that's going to hit is to be very wealthy, poor folk get it continually from all sides, always have and always will, that's life, it's a given like death and taxes! Cheers Billy ![]() |
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#13615 | |||
T3/Sprint8
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 16,409
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Quote:
I see by your posts you have a wide network here and abroad. I'm sure your not alone, I have as well but have no need to quote as such but seeing your asking - no, none that are average health. Even haven't heard of aged ones. Wife's family she 1 of 8 from Portugal. Countless relos there/madeira europe/usa. Myself Italian background, relos mostly in the north of Italy that unbelieveably fine and round EU. I had my first info re a death just the other day here locally. A good friend of my eldest son cousin of his wife to be. Mind you he did have a heart prod/issue that I have no facts about and only mid 30's. Went real quick. Mind you I was told months ago they checked with their GP/Specialists is he ok to have the jab, they said and was told, they sat on the fence due to the typical what ifs and innuedo's so there you go. Somehow somehere he got it, was told they had been very careful due to his heart prob. https://www.northernbeachesadvocate....s-covid-death/ Poor Mum called an ambo, obviously couldn't ride with them, followed in the car with her other son. Upon arriving they got checked out and told can't go in, Mum and brother both positive as well. Can imagine the poor Mum, couldn't be with her suffering son, he died within 2days :( Devasting, but again he did have a heart issue, didn't get jabbed. Would the jab have saved him ? who knows but pardon the pun, worth a shot no.
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Tickfords T3/TS50 '02 Sprint8 manual Sept 24 '16 Daily Macan GTS "Don't believe everything you read on the internet. Abraham Lincoln" |
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#13616 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,564
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Quote:
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#13617 | |||
BLUE OVAL INC.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 8,645
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Quote:
I drive heavy vehicles for a crust, this is the equivalent of saying you must drive the bus to transport passengers, but if you have an accident you're not covered by work cover because driving has its risks. If i need to have a Covid Jab to do my job, i should be covered if that job requirement kills or maims me. |
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#13618 | ||||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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Quote:
Quote:
This problem isn't going away anytime soon. I think we all need to come to the realization that most of the population is going to end up catching covid at some point. And a hell of a lot of people are going to die. We can't keep locking down forever, and it's going to spread like wildfire when we eventually open up. |
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#13619 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
On a side note, I think that those old numbers for not catching the virus are copping a pummelling from Delta, though haven't seen any numbers yet, too soon still. It will be interesting to see if the protection remains to stop the disease. AZ 92% effective against symptomatic disease from delta according to this study https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...ined/100334138
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#13620 | ||
Cabover nut
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Onsite Eastcoast
Posts: 10,841
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Yeah, everyone seems to think this is the Silver Bullet, then next year it will be time to push the booster shot, then its a secondary booster shot and so on every year after.
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heritagestonemason.com/Fordlouisvillerestoration In order that the labour of centuries past may not be in vain during the centuries to come...... D. Diderot 1752
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