Covid 19 -

[zilo]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Is there a country in the world, well lets talk a relative one with good population (not a backwater island or something with a handful of people) maintaining 0 covid and managed doing so for a long time since ?
Let the google searchs come in.

New Zealand rated #1 safest place in the world
Tasmania #5

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Welcome to the party, pal! - McClane

We've been here before. A lot more than you guys have!

So maybe it should be "Welcome back to the party, pal".

[russellw]

In terms of successes, 222 (of 249) countries have had at least one case and of those, there are 4 that have no currently active cases but they are all tiny islands with tiny population bases.

In terms of larger population bases, assuming you can trust the data, Hong Kong is a success story. Their case numbers peaked in the 140/day range (twice) but have been in single digits since late April with only 3 deaths since May 1st and only two 48 hour lockdowns with one of those being localised. But ... with a population of 7.5M they have totalled 12,050 cases and 212 deaths - that's 160 cases per 100k compared to our 162 / 100k and 2.82 deaths per 100k (3.8/100k here) so the overall results are similar because their 3 waves were all longer than ours.

Singapore is another example. They had very low case numbers (typically <20/day) all the way from October last year until July this year but they have been on the rise this last 6 weeks and their total 66,406 cases is a much higher 1,135/100k (based on a population of 5.7M) although the deaths are much lower at 0.78 / 100k. Having said that, their very low 0.069% CMR is suspicious to say the least.

In fact, the list of countries below either our 160 cases or 3.8 deaths / 100k is short and there aren't very many that you'd trust the data for frankly - I've highlighted the believable ones below -

Angola 138 / 3.44 (Africa)
Benin 83 / 0.98 (Africa)
Burundi 85 / 0.32 (Africa)
Chad 30 / 1.94 (Africa)
DRC 60 / 1.17 (Africa)
Laos 155 / 0.12 (Asia)
Madagascar 155 / 3.45 (Africa)
New Zealand 60 / 0.54 (Oceania)
Nigeria 90 / 1.089 (Africa)
Syria 152 / 11.1 (Asia)
Taiwan 66 / 3.46 (Asia)
Yemen 25 / 4.7 (Asia)

[MITCHAY]

Always appreciate your analytics Russ.

Throwing back to Hong Kong though, they were out in droves protesting and there was a lot of chaos. It has gone since Covid so for now China has won that battle. They have still kept it under control.

[MITCHAY]

I was reading the economic news and it looks grim. We might enter recession soon after it going nuts. Not unexpected with half the population under lock down.

McFlog likes to think he is saving Australia literally but it seems China are finally kicking us in the balls with the iron ore price taking a dive.

I think the budget was very conservative estimating $50-60 per tonne over the forward estimates so we will see how it plays out.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Once upon a time it may have been, or for a certain region. Did you mean to say that the Mosquito is or was the most deadly animal to humans?

Biggest killer, not deadliest to humans, so you have, heart attack, lung cancer, stroke, car accident, shooting deaths etc, etc.
They had malaria at the top of list as kills more humans than any other disease, illness or accident or murder!

Sorry for late reply but in bed most of yesterday


Cheers Billy

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Same thing can be said about Dan. He's really hitting his straps like he never fell down the stairs

Dan knows he failed the people who he represents in Victoria, this is just him "pulling his socks up" cos he knows he in deep sh.t, all State Premiers are drowning in something they can't comprehend, they became pollies for the easy ride, this virus has sorted the "wheat from the chaff" they are drowning not waving, the blind leading the blind


Cheers Billy

[T3rminator]

Jeff Kennett has started a pretty vicious rumour about Victoria's lock downs overnight. But he is another knob that has been tweeting all kinds of BS during this pandemic. Seems a bit far fetched authorities would make a call into 2022 right now, but I feel where there is smoke there might be some fire in this one. Sure they'll get grilled at the presser today, so might be one worth tuning in. But its a beautiful day outside....

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I was reading the economic news and it looks grim. We might enter recession soon after it going nuts. Not unexpected with half the population under lock down.

McFlog likes to think he is saving Australia literally but it seems China are finally kicking us in the balls with the iron ore price taking a dive.

I think the budget was very conservative estimating $50-60 per tonne over the forward estimates so we will see how it plays out.

Some analysts were saying that we were already sleep walking into a recession pre covid. The forward budget estimates used $62.50. Heard that for every $10 drop in price results in $2b less from tax revenue for the feds. Analysts have been saying that the real impact of other sanctions won't be fully felt until year 2, which is next year?

The US just passed a $1 trillion infrastructure funding bill. They'll need iron ore

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Always appreciate your analytics Russ.

Throwing back to Hong Kong though, they were out in droves protesting and there was a lot of chaos. It has gone since Covid so for now China has won that battle. They have still kept it under control.

I have a friend in HK and she tells me the 'anti vaccination' movement is now the new chaos.

Many against the jab, problems with rule compliance and restrictions.

I would have thought otherwise would be the case..

[slowsnake]

You have to expect chaos if China is involved, which it is, I'd hazard a guess that it's not the vaccination per se, but the government that is ordering it be done that HK nationals object to!


Cheers Billy

[PHANTMXR6]

Originally Posted by TrVrPhiLpsiNdstrys

Yes and ?

Apologies mate, poor attempt at humour.

[DJR-351]

NSW recorded 825 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night...

I read service NSW are now sending texts to people aged between 16-39 to allow them to get priority access to the vaccine....

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

OK, so seems the outcome of my prediction was on the money, but I was just waaaaay optimistic on the timing!

Look out MITCHAY, the life of the party has arrived

[T3rminator]

Heard that as at a couple of days ago 50% of active cases in Vic were kids and teens. 25% were kids under 10 years old.

With new cases per day now heading towards 1000s, the people working in our health system could come under immense stress.

Leaked doc: National cabinet counts ICU beds, underestimates cases by 50 per cent

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/...-cases-50-cent

While the paper notes NSW has the capacity to establish surge arrangements, which would more than double the number of “ventilator-equipped ICU beds”, it is careful to point out that this does not include staff.

“Staff remain in shorter supply than beds and ventilators to meet ICU demand,” it says.

There may come a point where “interventions” such as moving staff across state borders to “facilitate” surge capacity is required, the document says, especially if healthcare workers are “furloughed” for isolation, either as close contacts or because they have contracted the virus.

[DJR-351]

And as some predicted Victoria goes into a statewide lockdown from 1pm today

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...rom-1pm_210821

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Jeff Kennett has started a pretty vicious rumour about Victoria's lock downs overnight. But he is another knob that has been tweeting all kinds of BS during this pandemic. Seems a bit far fetched authorities would make a call into 2022 right now, but I feel where there is smoke there might be some fire in this one. Sure they'll get grilled at the presser today, so might be one worth tuning in. But its a beautiful day outside....



Some analysts were saying that we were already sleep walking into a recession pre covid. The forward budget estimates used $62.50. Heard that for every $10 drop in price results in $2b less from tax revenue for the feds. Analysts have been saying that the real impact of other sanctions won't be fully felt until year 2, which is next year?

The US just passed a $1 trillion infrastructure funding bill. They'll need iron ore

Nothing is far fetched these days and I would certainly listen to Jeff than listening to you.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Nothing is far fetched these days and I would certainly listen to Jeff than listening to you.

Yeh well I'm not surprised. I got sucked into a post that I can now see was meant to be a political statement. Will try not make that mistake again. People are free to listen to whoever they want. Don't care if you argue / debate the point, but you can stop finger waving at me .

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 20th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

708 new cases for Australia and 4 deaths so the CMR is 2.306%.

14 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.876%.

The UK had a higher 36,987 cases yesterday and higher 114 deaths for a CMR of 2.045%.

A lower 160,276 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 1,077 deaths sees CMR at 1.682%.

Other notable points:
Fiji moves above Australia for the most cases in Oceania despite having 1/25th the population. That's 4,800 cases and 48 deaths / 100k compared to our 162 / 3.8.
Global cases pass 211M, the last 1M in 2 days;

Brunei (197);
Laos (440);
Burundi (593);
Sri Lanka (3,807);
Vietnam (10,657);
Philippines (17,231) - the previous high 02/04/21;
Malaysia (23,564); and
Japan (25,155)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

And as some predicted Victoria goes into a statewide lockdown from 1pm today

Oops wrong linky

Protests in Melbourne CBD

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...4-8fcd6a004df8

[russellw]

Day 44 of the current NSW and another record case day with 832 cases which also is the highest single day total in this country. Neither graph, the comparison or predictive model look good at the moment.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

Day 44 of the current NSW and another record case day with 832 cases which also is the highest single day total in this country. Neither graph, the comparison or predictive model look good at the moment.

image


image

I think, no matter how you look at the situation in NSW atm, it's not good.

Out of interest Russ, what's the correlation coefficient (r) value for that 3rd order polynomial trend in the first graph? Looking at the graph, I'd expect it be above +0.9?

[MITCHAY]

Geez it's not good. 12 cases yesterday and 8 today in the ACT so our numbers are heading the right way.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I would contend that both WA and NZ are similar. Melbourne and Sydney are each larger than either of them in an tiny area in comparison. WA and NZ's programs and responses are not realistic in "World" cities.

Compare the Vic and NSW results with anywhere comparable and they actually look incredibly good. Good old Australia always pulls out the "knock ourselves down" mentality. I have been guilty about it with covid. Sure we messed some thing up, but as a whole, even right now, compared to other places of commercial importance we have actually done an amazing job.

If we hit the line hard with the vaccinations we would have one of the best results in the world.

Yep go on talk yourself into feeling good about the mess over there

Way back in the start of this thread I posted how I couldn't believe how well Oz was doing considering the half *** lockdowns (bunnings open etc) now your premier is paying the price for a pathetic lockdown IMO you either do it properly or don't bother at all ....just a waste of everyone time

I'm not saying NZs done everything right but they're trying to ......Dan Andrew's has copped flack for everything hes done yet the NSW premier seams to have a get out of jail free card?
And everyone's all ....oh well it all works out in the end were better off than America so it's all good

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Nothing is far fetched these days and I would certainly listen to Jeff than listening to you.

In hindsight I probably shouldn't have mentioned it, but must admit I thought there was some element of truth in it. Anyhow, here is the response from Martin Pakula, the minister responsible for that industry. People can choose to believe or not.

https://twitter.com/MartinPakulaMP/s...809527815?s=20

[LG17]

I am flabbergasted at these selfish protestors and their antics.
Is there somewhere secure in NSW or Victoria where they could all be sent and make them fend for themselves in fighting covid?

Originally Posted by PHANTMXR6

Apologies mate, poor attempt at humour.

All good brother, i actually watched it lol...

Because i got my first tetanus in over 30yr's a month or so ago and i didnt feel that one either ??

My arm is a bit sore today tho'

I have been scared of needles my whole life for no reason

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

In hindsight I probably shouldn't have mentioned it, but must admit I thought there was some element of truth in it. Anyhow, here is the response from Martin Pakula, the minister responsible for that industry. People can choose to believe or not.

https://twitter.com/MartinPakulaMP/s...809527815?s=20

Since you thrown it up I would listen to Jeff any day over that ****** bag Martin Pakula; don't forget some of these state ministers cannot give straight answers or remember what is going on as proven in the last 12 months.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by LG17

I am flabbergasted at these selfish protestors and their antics.
Is there somewhere secure in NSW or Victoria where they could all be sent and make them fend for themselves in fighting covid?

Water Cannon / Dye, problem solved

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by LG17

I am flabbergasted at these selfish protestors and their antics.
Is there somewhere secure in NSW or Victoria where they could all be sent and make them fend for themselves in fighting covid?

Just where they are will be fine. My biggest worry is we dont open up due to these people stopping us from getting to 80%

Hopefully we reach a point and just open up, rather than trying to convince these people, as empirical evidence does not seem to sway them. Then they can have exactly what they are wishing for. We need a % level AND a date. That will stop these "wait and see" people from slowing everything down. If its available and you haven't had it, bad luck.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by PooDog

Yep go on talk yourself into feeling good about the mess over there

Way back in the start of this thread I posted how I couldn't believe how well Oz was doing considering the half *** lockdowns (bunnings open etc) now your premier is paying the price for a pathetic lockdown IMO you either do it properly or don't bother at all ....just a waste of everyone time

I'm not saying NZs done everything right but they're trying to ......Dan Andrew's has copped flack for everything hes done yet the NSW premier seams to have a get out of jail free card?
And everyone's all ....oh well it all works out in the end were better off than America so it's all good

Not talking myself into anything, just stating facts.

Its a fact that we have done very well when looking at comparable economies. NZ is not comparable. NZ is more disconnected from the rest of the world, is much smaller, less densely populated than Sydney or Melbourne, and has less requirement to remain connected. When you compare South Australia and Western Australia, you see a similar result to NZ. Just a fact, you don't need to get defensive, NZ has done very well (aside from vaccination, which is even worse than what Australia achieved - we do not hear much about your leaders failure with this over here??) within their position.

You cant run international cities with 5 million residents like a country with 5 million.

And if you think Gladys is getting off lightly, well I am not sure what you have been watching. She has been hammered for being too slow this time, and the way it panned out, deservedly so. As a leader, you are judged on results, not actions. But it served her well with the previous wave. Again, just facts.