Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm not arguing with your logic given that the countries I've been watching seem to have a CMR about 1/3rd of ours (0.43% v 1.16%) but in some cases the hospitalisation rates amongst the unvaccinated are a bit higher than our ~7% and that was the point I was making.

If we can manage to open up with a phased approach and avoid the disaster that is Florida at the moment where the health system hasn't been able to cope and ICU utilisation is already above 90% despite their high vaccination levels.

Would be good to know what the average capacity take up at our hospitals and ICUs were before covid, say on a bad flu year. Not just the beds, but also the people supporting the system.

When we open up, non covid illnesses will also be on the rise and take up capacity e.g. flu, mental health related, accidents etc?

I've also heard one theory that kid's immune systems may not have developed as strongly as they otherwise would be, because they have not been out and about being exposed to viruses and bacterias.

I assume this has all been factored into the Doherty modelling. The director of the Doherty has now come out and clarified that the modelling does allow opening with "hundreds" of cases.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

How about " alternate vaccine ".....ever given that any thought?

How about 'alternate reality' were you seem to spend most of your time.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by russellw

How about 'alternate reality' were you seem to spend most of your time.

I'm a deep thinker?
Just the content that seems to irk, but this damn virus has been around awhile and no cause found yet, I have to think outside the rules, I don't think the cause will be found through normal human endeavour, but at least I try to understand just what is happening to our planet and its inhabitants, if it means meandering off dead centre where we all feel safe then I will!


Cheers Billy

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Would be good to know what the average capacity take up at our hospitals and ICUs were before covid, say on a bad flu year. Not just the beds, but also the people supporting the system.

I don’t think it’s practical to make this comparison now. There have been significant running changes to large hospital ICUs in response to issues heightened by transmission risk of coronavirus. I make that comment having had family in ICU/Emergency (too!) many times since the late ‘90s. :-/

It’s my perception that some of procedure changes take a little more staff time than before, and maybe more net staff. Reducing drastically the number of permitted visitors to almost nil; pretty much only end-of-life or touch-and-go will have greatly lifted the drag on staff from excess interactions. That said, I believe the emotional toll on doctors may be higher due to everything being so buffered and depersonalised. So whether the capacity of staff is really up to coping, it’s an unknown.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by russellw

How about 'alternate reality' were you seem to spend most of your time.

Thats a little nasty, seems anyone with differing views, cops that here....

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The director of the Doherty has now come out and clarified that the modelling does allow opening with "hundreds" of cases.

I saw that this morning. That is all we need, more mixed messaging. From this:

An expert (University of Melbourne professor of mathematical biology James McCaw) who helped develop the modelling underpinning Australia's four-stage plan to transition away from lockdowns says virus case numbers in NSW need to drop for the high vaccination rates outlined in the plan to be effective.

"The roadmap is all built around the fact that we can open up when we are able to manage the virus circulating in the community," he said.

"Effective management of circulating virus without lockdowns requires high vaccine coverage and it requires there not to be a lot of cases in the community."


To this

Professor Lewin said while the modelling was based on an initial outbreak of 30 cases, the increased numbers NSW and Victoria are experiencing do not make a material difference.

"Whether you open up at 30 [cases] or you open up at 800, you will still continue to see numbers escalate," Professor Lewin said.

Two Professors. Same organisation. They are meant to guide not confuse. Anyone wonder why we cant get a coordinated response when this is the advice from the body doing the research just a few days apart?

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by HIPO

Thats a little nasty, seems anyone with differing views, cops that here....

Back up your views with verifiable facts and you should be fine 👍

[Citroënbender]

A bit of positivity for NSW, so I’ll re-post my question for the locked-down states:

Originally Posted by Me

…what’s the first thing you will (or plan to!) do when lessened restrictions allow it?

I’m looking forward to visiting a friend 60km away. And also, driving my 90 year old neighbour to visit her sister in Goulburn, housebound with dementia.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A bit of positivity for NSW, so I’ll re-post my question for the locked-down states:

I’m looking forward to visiting a friend 60km away. And also, driving my 90 year old neighbour to visit her sister in Goulburn, housebound with dementia.

I am really hoping by second week of school holidays we are freed so we can get to the coast if I can find accomo, might actually ask a few places if they dont penalize if we cancel 48hrs prior.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A bit of positivity for NSW, so I’ll re-post my question for the locked-down states:

I’m looking forward to visiting a friend 60km away. And also, driving my 90 year old neighbour to visit her sister in Goulburn, housebound with dementia.

Hit the pubs / clubs / house parties. Everything else I've pretty much been able to do when we had sparodic "freedoms".

[russellw]

Originally Posted by HIPO

Thats a little nasty, seems anyone with differing views, cops that here....

Not at all. Alternative views supported by reasoned argument or some shred of logic are perfectly acceptable but lunatic fringe theories about the virus dropping from aircraft passing overhead or secret vaccines is a step too far.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by HIPO

Thats a little nasty, seems anyone with differing views, cops that here....

Thanks mate but in reality I am a little different from others, a bit like Galileo Galilei with his helicopter design, just imagine the 15th century and he designs an "air screw" operated by 4 men!....
He was watching maple seeds fall and that gave him the idea, it was proved in Canada 20 years ago maybe, could of been later, guess what! It worked!

What I would like to see on this forum is a function where you can thank yourself for your own posts


Cheers Billy

[MITCHAY]

30 more for the ACT.

[Pis-ton broke]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A bit of positivity for NSW, so I’ll re-post my question for the locked-down states:

I’m looking forward to visiting a friend 60km away. And also, driving my 90 year old neighbor to visit her sister in Goulburn, housebound with dementia.

rap the 90 y/o completely head to toe in toilet paper, should be fine. as i understand, toilet with fix everything.

but being serious, don,t you have to get a permit for travel outside greater sydney. (assuming your in greater sydney)

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A bit of positivity for NSW, so I’ll re-post my question for the locked-down states:

I’m looking forward to visiting a friend 60km away. And also, driving my 90 year old neighbour to visit her sister in Goulburn, housebound with dementia.

Very nnice gesture CB re your 90yr old neighbour.

Yer I'll love spending sometime with my aging parents at my place, for a bbq/pis s up family gathering and inlaws for starters.
Next jump in the T3 or Sprint with the handbrake next to me, to the Hunter or Orange overnighter I don't care for sex drugs and rock & roll, < yer nup that ain't gonna happen my rush will be driving to anywhere and being free and take it all in......

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by PB

…but being serious, don,t you have to get a permit for travel outside greater sydney.

Yes, but soon as practical (legal) that trip will be done. It’s not right for me to park out the street with cars and expect a pensioner next door to use public transport.

[Pis-ton broke]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Yes, but soon as practical (legal) that trip will be done. It’s not right for me to park out the street with cars and expect a pensioner next door to use public transport.

not saying putting him on a bus, just questoning the covid rules side of it.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 23rd 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

892 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.191%.

38 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.851%.

The UK had a lower 31,675 cases yesterday and lower 40 deaths for a CMR of 2.018%.

A higher 189,828 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,401 deaths sees CMR at 1.670% although some of those cases and deaths were carried over from the previous day.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 4.45M, the last 50k in 5 days;
Global cases pass 213M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Asia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period;
Asia passes 68M cases;
Asia passes 1M deaths;

French Guyana 392;
Mauritius (1,028) - weekly reported;
Benin (1,838) - weekly reported;
Sri Lanka (4,355) - the 6th consecutive day; and
Philippines (18,332)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Algeria drops below.

[Trevor 57]

Shepparton cases linked to someone from the Glenroy cluster

Rumour has it they attended a funeral in Shepparton

Then Shepparton person took it back and gave it to the Royal Melbourne Hospital

[russellw]

The NSW graph looks a bit better today having dipped below the trend line and with 755 cases the 10-day average growth is now 1.06.

[Metdevil]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...to-covidnormal

179 consecutive days of 0 community cases says otherwise, Scomo. How about you just worry about your lot and we'll do our best to clean up the mess over here.
Mr Morrison seems to have conveniently left out the part about where our outbreak originated from...

Reminds me of the time Trump called it a 'hell hole' here when we were at 17 cases and the US was cracking 40k a day. Classic diversionary tactic to distract the viewers.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...to-covidnormal


Mr Morrison seems to have conveniently left out the part about where our outbreak originated from...

Wuhan?

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

The NSW graph looks a bit better today having dipped below the trend line and with 755 cases the 10-day average growth is now 1.06.

That's an improving trend. Honestly, let's hope that trend continues.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

For the “perpetually” or frequently locked down on here, what’s the first thing you will (or plan to!) do when lessened restrictions allow it?

Two main things I'd like to do:

The first is to get to Winton for the Supercars. I'm doubtful it will proceed at the moment, but hopeful that it will, at least for regional folk. We planned to go to the original scheduled round, staying at a mate's parents' place at Bonniedoon, but, of course, that got postponed.

The second is to get up to Gosford to visit a mate, which I have been planning to do since November 2019 when we were planning on going to the Newcastle round of the Supercars together. For a number of reasons, including covid lockdowns, we just have not had the opportunity to make a visit happen yet.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by russellw

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 23rd 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

892 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.191%.

38 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.851%.

The UK had a lower 31,675 cases yesterday and lower 40 deaths for a CMR of 2.018%.

A higher 189,828 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,401 deaths sees CMR at 1.670% although some of those cases and deaths were carried over from the previous day.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 4.45M, the last 50k in 5 days;
Global cases pass 213M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Asia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period;
Asia passes 68M cases;
Asia passes 1M deaths;

French Guyana 392;
Mauritius (1,028) - weekly reported;
Benin (1,838) - weekly reported;
Sri Lanka (4,355) - the 6th consecutive day; and
Philippines (18,332)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Algeria drops below.

russellw report same day 12 months ago.http://www.fordforums.com.au/showpos...postcount=5649

210 new cases for Australia and 17 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.023% although active cases dropped to 5,077. NSW recorded 4 cases; Queensland recorded 2 cases; WA and SA recorded 1 each with the balance in Victoria. Australia passes 500 deaths.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.314% and active cases rise to 114.

The UK had 1,041 new cases and (supposedly) 6 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 12.722% although we know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines.

Just under 44k new cases in the USA yesterday and 974 deaths sees CMR fall to 3.084% and active cases remain at 43.0% with the raw numbers rising again. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 76M, India 35M, Russia 34M and Italy 8M tests;

Greece (283) and South Korea (397) recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.
__________________

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Wuhan?

Key word being 'outbreak'. It originated from NSW.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Key word being 'outbreak'. It originated from NSW.

Oh, you mean failed NZ quarantine?

Sorry, I jest. In all seriousness NZ quarantine has been awesome.

Personally, I think we all need to get past being upset at the last place that had it, everyone gets upset at everyone else, and then it flips around and spreads the other way.

You are right, Scomo should be quiet and concentrate on his issues and not comment on the Jacinda still carrying on about zero community cases while saying nothing about having probably the worst vaccination effort of any developed country in the entire world. She even makes Scomo look like a champ at vaccinating the nation, and that is saying something.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Oh, you mean failed NZ quarantine?

Sorry, I jest. In all seriousness NZ quarantine has been awesome.

Personally, I think we all need to get past being upset at the last place that had it, everyone gets upset at everyone else, and then it flips around and spreads the other way.

You are right, Scomo should be quiet and concentrate on his issues and not comment on the Jacinda still carrying on about zero community cases while saying nothing about having probably the worst vaccination effort of any developed country in the entire world. She even makes Scomo look like a champ at vaccinating the nation, and that is saying something.

I would call it a failed 'Trans-Tasman Bubble', but yea, our quarantine was going great until tourism had to get involved

With no cases in the country for the last six months, we really had no rush for the vaccine. Now that Delta is finally here, that seems to have called attention to it.
I work with a lot of people who were eligible for it long before the outbreak but didn't get it because they felt there was no point.
Now, those people are all booked in to get the jab for some reason :p


The roll out itself was fine, it was the MedSafe approval process that has been slow.
Gotta make sure it's safe after all, wouldn't want people thinking that it was rushed and hasn't been properly tested

[cs123]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I saw that this morning. That is all we need, more mixed messaging. From this:

An expert (University of Melbourne professor of mathematical biology James McCaw) who helped develop the modelling underpinning Australia's four-stage plan to transition away from lockdowns says virus case numbers in NSW need to drop for the high vaccination rates outlined in the plan to be effective.

"The roadmap is all built around the fact that we can open up when we are able to manage the virus circulating in the community," he said.

"Effective management of circulating virus without lockdowns requires high vaccine coverage and it requires there not to be a lot of cases in the community."


To this

Professor Lewin said while the modelling was based on an initial outbreak of 30 cases, the increased numbers NSW and Victoria are experiencing do not make a material difference.

"Whether you open up at 30 [cases] or you open up at 800, you will still continue to see numbers escalate," Professor Lewin said.

Two Professors. Same organisation. They are meant to guide not confuse. Anyone wonder why we cant get a coordinated response when this is the advice from the body doing the research just a few days apart?

Doesn't matter anymore. Gladys has made the call for the entire east coast what the strategy will be.

NSW has been reminding us recently they have the best CHO, best contract tracers and now the best vaccinators... in the world. The NSW govt love telling people how they are the best. And if they have decided something, then best we just do as she says.

The gaslighting that has been the NSW press conferences over the last two months are interesting.

It's very depressing.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Key word being 'outbreak'. It originated from NSW.

I dont doubt that statement, but i think (think being the operative word in my statement) its more correct to say the outbreak is more due to some peoples frustrations towards restrictions and therefore either being too lax or ignoring recommendations.
If you take out population numbers, but look at population density, that in my view is why case numbers in varous areas differ so greatly. So, as a poor and uneducated example. If say someone in a small town gets the virus, yet all people live in houses, people living in said house are most at risk. Yet, an infected person in living in a high rise unit block, if they get in the lift, sneeze, the lift stops 3 or 4 times on the way to ground floor, that sort of turns it into the 6 degrees of separation. So its case numbers x² sort of.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

With no cases in the country for the last six months, we really had no rush for the vaccine. Now that Delta is finally here, that seems to have called attention to it.

But thats why we are in the mess, somehow we thought we could hold this off, I am so sick of hearing about "delta', CV19 is CV19 and we had ages to get in better order and we didnt.

Now people are over it and those who want a jab are trying to get it done so we can test the Gov on when we can open up and live with it.