Covid 19 -

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Winter and Spring is best,, because of flower season, but its an experience wherever you go, I will have to have a look at " Claire's Footsteps " sounds like an interesting blog, hope you get here someday and you really should find your own way around.

https://clairesfootsteps.com/broome-...ive-itinerary/
(Typical blogger, she has to put herself in nearly every photo. )

I really do want to put time into shoring up my own assets, though. It’s killing me that the best working seasons have been excluded.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

My dearest person has been dying to visit the Kimberley, Broome etc for several years. Our template was the tour blogged on “Claire’s Footsteps”. We both agreed lux package prices are OTT, but the expectation then falls upon me to source a vehicle, all the gear, plan faultlessly and have the know-how to safely chauffeur Madame on her bucket list trip (she only has an east European licence). It’s just not that high on my radar - when restrictions are loosened I’d rather be on my block putting in new fences.

off topic completely, but it is a respite:

If you are going to the Kimberley it is not as bad as some would have you believe, if you go within the tourist season there are plenty of vehicles around.

Broome is OK, but 3 days max

We left our A'Van at a farm stay at Parry Creek and tented it through the Kimberley, we didn't go up to Kalumburu, a bit sorry we didn't, we listened to 'campers whispers' we shouldn't have.

The trip took 5 days and it was magnificent, we just had a tent, clothes, food water, bedding, etc the back of the PK Ranger. Sure the road is rough in parts but nothing that required up to go into 4WD, it wasn't wet.

You need to do it

Bells Gorge:


Imiji roadhouse - cheapest fuel:


Windjana camping:


Windjana Gorge:

[shedcoupe]

Broome is a base for looking around but itself is a big fat zero.
Bring a fly net.

[Citroënbender]

Nice pictures Trev, thanks - and without an English pipsqueak in sight. Bell’s Gorge looks wonderful.

[wodahs]

I have travelled through the nor~west a fair bit over the years by car and truck (even these tripples Billy talks of) and still consider my self having only minorly checked out it
tho I always full recommend people do come see it , I'd suggest no matter how much you don't mind the humidity don't go dur up there dur in wet the wet season and when sight seeing take more water/food/fuel than you think you need (and I don't mean heaps) cause you may get side tracked or run in to a problem that sees you in need andwith out

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by shedcoupe

Broome is a base for looking around but itself is a big fat zero.
Bring a fly net.

and take a fat wallet to pay for your caravan park site. $73 per night - min 3 nights and 560 sites at Cable Beach Caravan park - not a bad little earner, booked solid for 3 months and lap in and out either end - do the sums

[Citroënbender]

Potentially close to $15M/yr gross on those numbers, as you say not a bad little earner.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

and take a fat wallet to pay for your caravan park site. $73 per night - min 3 nights and 560 sites at Cable Beach Caravan park - not a bad little earner, booked solid for 3 months and lap in and out either end - do the sums

from memory the roebuck Plains roadhouse was cheaper and had accommodatinon
and last I heard the road to Cape laveake (how ever is spelled) is now bitumen and probably good places to stay/see now

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Potentially close to $15M/yr gross on those numbers, as you say not a bad little earner.

and the facilities weren't that flash for that sort of income - the numbers aren't high during the wet season, but they cream it during the tourist season

We were in an A'Van Cruiseliner, no ensuite in the van, but we had an external shower, I set it up instead of using their old and not very clean facilities

[Trevor 57]

Anyway, back on topic - kinda


Won't it be great to get back to some sort of normality - but it might a bit of the 'have's' and have not's' - vaccinations I mean - the vaccinated go places the un-vaccinated can't - it will be interesting for sure

[Citroënbender]

NSW dipping below Russell’s trend line again, although I note the number of Covid tests per week is apparently diminishing while related vaccination rates stay strong.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 31st 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,232 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR is 1.868%. NSW records the 100th death this outbreak.

50 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.728%.

The UK had a higher 31,951 cases yesterday and higher 50 deaths for a CMR of 1.952%.

A lower 147,152 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,428 deaths sees CMR at 1.644%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 218M, the last 1M in 2 days;
North America passes 48M cases;
Asia passes 70M cases;
The USA passes 40M cases;

Nicaragua (568); and
Norway (1,785) - the previous high on 20/3/21;

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Syria moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[russellw]

With lower case numbers in the current reporting period (1,118), the NSW 'actual' line continues to move below the predictive trend line but not yet by enough to stop that line trending higher. The 10-day average growth rate drops slightly to 1.038 and the YTD adjusted CMR for NSW finally dips below 1% to 0.98% - note that the 'adjusted' CMR is deaths divided by total cases less cases in the last 14 days.

[Trevor 57]

Victoria 12 new cases and 2 deaths, although I think the deaths were reported late yesterday, a woman in her 40's and a woman in her 60's (they sound familiar to what I heard yesterday)

[russellw]

I've been trying to get my head around what the hospitalisation / ICU rates are in this country but have only really had NSW data this year. It's not an easy thing to even guesstimate as the duration of a stay can be anything from a few days to several weeks and the only raw data we get is point-in-time data.

It's a little easier in Australia as we publish the 'mean' duration of the stays in hospital which is 7.5 days for hospitalised cases and 10 days for ICU ones - the latter shortened by the numbers that don't survive.

Having thought about it for awhile, I've decided that for comparative purposes it doesn't matter what method I use to calculate that rate so I'm going to use the previous 14 days of case data given that they are the more likely source of hospitalised cases. You could argue for a longer period, or for the 14 days before the current week or any other variation but as I said, mathematically it just requires consistency in the approach.

Now that Vic has a reasonable number of cases in the current outbreak, I can compare that data with the NSW data to see if there is any conclusion that can be drawn.

NSW has had 13,241 cases in the last 14 days with 917 in hospital and 150 in ICU which is 6.9% of cases hospitalised and 1.1% in ICU.

Victoria has had 869 cases in the last 14 days with 37 in hospital and 21 in ICU which is 3.7% of cases hospitalised and 2.1% in ICU.

It's a bit of a small sample in Victoria for any meaningful conclusions but the most obvious difference is that 57% of Victorian hospitalised cases are in ICU whereas it's only 16% in NSW and the hospitalisation percentage for Victoria is just over half that of NSW.

We'll probably know more in a few weeks as the numbers become clearer.

[T3rminator]

Target of 70% by 23rd Sept for Vic, by which time we can travel from 5km to.....wait for it......10km.....GTFO!!

If that is it, and these are the rules which would be similarily applied for states with Covid, its no wonder WA and QLD wants to keep their borders closed.

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

Victoria 12 new cases and 2 deaths, although I think the deaths were reported late yesterday, a woman in her 40's and a woman in her 60's (they sound familiar to what I heard yesterday)

Reckon you missed an important zero there Trevor.
120 cases

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

With lower case numbers in the current reporting period (1,118), the NSW 'actual' line continues to move below the predictive trend line but not yet by enough to stop that line trending higher. The 10-day average growth rate drops slightly to 1.038 and the YTD adjusted CMR for NSW finally dips below 1% to 0.98% - note that the 'adjusted' CMR is deaths divided by total cases less cases in the last 14 days.

image

Russ, if its not too much trouble, would you mind doing the same for the Vic figures each day? I'd be interested to see how our actual numbers are tracking against your predictive model.

It is certainly interesting that the narrative coming from Dan Andrews today is that we can continue to expect numbers to climb, but at the same time, we are prepared to relax the restrictions (a little) for the regional areas. I wonder if there's just a little bit of resignation starting to creep in?

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's a bit of a small sample in Victoria for any meaningful conclusions but the most obvious difference is that 57% of Victorian hospitalised cases are in ICU whereas it's only 16% in NSW and the hospitalisation percentage for Victoria is just over half that of NSW.

We'll probably know more in a few weeks as the numbers become clearer.

A cynical would be forgiven for Thinking that Gladys is cherry picking Data...

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Reckon you missed an important zero there Trevor.
120 cases

Yeah I did, sorry

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by hayseed

A cynical would be forgiven for Thinking that Gladys is cherry picking Data...

Hopefully in Vic they are escalating cases earlier as they have the capacity, and using the facilities to gain some valuable training for what is to come.

Would be excellent foresight if they are doing that.

If not, there is definitely something fishy with those numbers!

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Target of 70% by 23rd Sept for Vic, by which time we can travel from 5km to.....wait for it......10km.....GTFO!!

I would hope NSW offer a similar concession, as we’ll hit 70% this weekend or earlier. My mate and his family are suffering intense cabin fever, there would be so many in such situations.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Russ, if its not too much trouble, would you mind doing the same for the Vic figures each day? I'd be interested to see how our actual numbers are tracking against your predictive model.

I'd already started that one so here it is ...



The 10-day average growth rate is higher than NSW at 1.111, up from the 1.061 yesterday.

The comparative growth rate data chart probably shows it better although bear in mind it's a polynomial so doesn't reflect changes quickly.

[roKWiz]

Dan hinting regional Victoria to ease some restrictions next week.
Doesn't include Shepparton, sorry Trevor.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Dan hinting regional Victoria to ease some restrictions next week.
Doesn't include Shepparton, sorry Trevor.

I know - but there might be some light at the end of the tunnel. Only 5 new cases in Shepp and they were all in quarantine - so that is good news

On the bright side for the regional home-schooling parents, he did say definitely no return to school for metro, but not necessarily for regional - he will say more next week

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by tweeked

In round figures for you.

160 million are fully vaxxed in the US (about half of the population)

In your article you point out that 1400 fully vaxxed have died since January.

In the same time in the other half of the population (not fully vaxxed)......

215000 have died.

I cannot see what you are trying to say about vaccination not working.

I did not say it wasn't working. Do people even read posts before replying? Go back and read what I said. I simply showed the claim the other person made that being vaccinated means you won't end up in hospital or die from covid, is completely false. There have been over 1400 people in the US that have died from covid despite being double vaxxed.

Do people want to argue with facts now?

Originally Posted by zilo

You need to pay attention to what people post instead of shooting your mouth off...

He did not say vaccination not working....stop trolling and twisting.

Another person who can't read. He said being vaxxed means you won't end up in ICU. This is 100% false. Even if it dramatically reduces the chances, it's not going to stop some people still getting sick and dying. SOME being the key word. Tiny numbers, but SOME all the same. I have shown that to be true. How hard is that to understand?



Please people, if you are going to get in a huff about what people are posting, at least have the capacity to read the posts properly before you mouth off and make yourself look silly.

[Work Horse]

Whatever you do DO NOT mention Poland!

You have been warned!

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Whatever you do DO NOT mention Poland!

You have been warned!

Poland.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I did not say it wasn't working. Do people even read posts before replying? Go back and read what I said. I simply showed the claim the other person made that being vaccinated means you won't end up in hospital or die from covid, is completely false. There have been over 1400 people in the US that have died from covid despite being double vaxxed.

Do people want to argue with facts now?




Another person who can't read. He said being vaxxed means you won't end up in ICU. This is 100% false. Even if it dramatically reduces the chances, it's not going to stop some people still getting sick and dying. SOME being the key word. Tiny numbers, but SOME all the same. I have shown that to be true. How hard is that to understand?



Please people, if you are going to get in a huff about what people are posting, at least have the capacity to read the posts properly before you mouth off and make yourself look silly.

Once full vaccinated,it gives you around 90% protection,if you catch Covid (that is still possible) you do not end up in ICU.Just like having a cold etc…The reason that they are also pushing Astra Zeneca,is that it is now manufactured here,it is a lot cheaper than Pfizer or Moderna.Booster shots will be required,just like the flu shot,the Virus is evolving all the time.I have had both shots btw of Astra.
https://www.fordforums.com.au/showpo...ostcount=14309

I read hackneys post as 90% effective at stopping you from going to hospital. Not 100%. Probably not worded perfectly, but I think we are both reading into it from our own viewpoint.

I think we all need to read things more carefully.

[FTE217]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-CDC-says.html

Key points


Effectiveness of COVID vaccines in keeping patients out of hospitals falls to as low as 75% against Delta variant: People over 75 are highest risk
Effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines in keeping recipients out of the hospital drops as low as 75% over time, the CDC reports
Panel met this week to advise the CDC on its decision whether to approve COVID-19 vaccine booster in the U.S.
White House officials announced earlier this month that they plan to roll out boosters starting September 20
Israel has already begun the rollout of booster shots, and has found that the shots are effective