Covid 19 -

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Was just down at the local farmers market this morning. Absolute chocker blocks. Whilst 99% were masked up, social distancing was out the window. The fear is gone and people are over it. Was obviously council sanctioned as there were a few covid marshals there.

Wouldn't surprise me if there is unofficial "learn to live with it" experiments going on in selective parts of metro melb, which could then give gov some learnings for when they open up.

Have been waiting for someone to say that, it's exactly what I've been thinking for 6 months or so, but I dident want to be the one to say it, now you have and I fully 100% agree



Cheers Billy

[Citroënbender]

I feel like heeding the initiative of our honourable Premier and “intermittently” doing the right thing vis-à-vis following the Covid rules.

A quick perusal of Waze shows Sydney road policing is currently directed at restricting traffic to some key recreational areas - the lower Mountains, the Hawkesbury, Northern Beaches… I expect tomorrow we’ll find out if it was revenue driven or just aiming to improve compliance with travel limits.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 11th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

2,060 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 8 deaths so the CMR is 1.506%.

24 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.694%.

The UK had a lower 28,856 cases yesterday and higher 156 deaths for a CMR of 1.864%.

A higher 173,887 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 1,762 deaths sees CMR at 1.622%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 224M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Africa moves below the 90th percentile for the 10-day period;

Angola (405);
Australia (2,060); and
Philippines (22,603)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Greece drops below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 1,262 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases slightly to 1.0052 (from 1.0417) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line and is falling.



VIC records 392 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.1018 (from 1.1613) while the actual line moves back to almost level with the predictive trend line.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Another ABC story looking at other countries' progress with Covid, this time Singapore.

They have achieved an 80 percent fully vaccinated rate of their entire population, but are reintroducing restrictions due to the delta strain, as case numbers start to rise again.

This is the view from Dr Chow, a clinical psychologist:

Dr Chow — who studied at Monash University and Deakin University in Victoria — warned locked-down Australians not to think of the 80 per cent vaccination mark as a cure-all panacea.

"It doesn't mean the end of the pandemic, as we've seen here in Singapore," she said.

"Eighty per cent is just a plaster onto the problem. We still don't know what's going to happen under plaster with the wound."

[T3rminator]

UK have come out over the weekend declaring no vaccine passports, and no more lock downs. The first can, in theory, be set in stone, but the second will depend....

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 12th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,638 new cases for Australia and 7 deaths so the CMR is 1.482%.

23 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.690%.

The UK had a lower 28,614 cases yesterday and lower 56 deaths for a CMR of 1.857%.

A lower 73,447 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 719 deaths sees CMR at 1.621%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)

Only..
New Caledonia (300);

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Georgia, Morocco, Mauritania, Ivory Coast and Uzbekistan drop below.

[slowsnake]

You do these stats everyday russellw, so what in all honesty do you think is going to happen down the track here in Australia!

Just what you think, personally



Cheers Billy

[russellw]

NSW records 1,260 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 0.9939 (from 1.0052) while the actual line remains well below the predictive trend line and is stabilising. In promising news, that’s the first 10-day average below 1.0 growth rate which should herald the turning point if it holds up over the next few days.



VIC records 473 cases in the current period (another high for this outbreak) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1108 (from 1.0907) while the actual line falls slightly below the predictive trend line.

[Citroënbender]

Another data source (ourworldindata.org, as at 8th September) has Singapore at “only” (my interpretation) 76,5% fully Covid-vaccinated. I would also think given the climate and population density there are potentially quite different factors affecting the spread of coronavirus in its people when compared to Australia.

[Trevor 57]

Still no reprieve for Shepp, virtually zero new cases since last week, there was a couple early last week, but not much

How come we are still locked down and put into the same category as those dodgy ****ers in Melbourne?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

Still no reprieve for Shepp, virtually zero new cases since last week, there was a couple early last week, but not much

How come we are still locked down and put into the same category as those dodgy ****ers in Melbourne?

The "freedom" Dan gave us is sweet fa anyway. May as well still be locked down.

It's all chairman dan knows how to do anyway. Even when we hit 80% he'll still be reaching for the lockdown button when he see's fit.

[Citroënbender]

Quite a nice article on the ABC’s website about Dr Rifi:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...yard/100428080

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

Still no reprieve for Shepp, virtually zero new cases since last week, there was a couple early last week, but not much

How come we are still locked down and put into the same category as those dodgy ****ers in Melbourne?

Do you buy "we are all in this together?"



I'm really hoping they extend the 10km to at least 25km, otherwise there is really no change, for me anyways. Vic Gov has got to give a bit more carrot for those jabbed. As of next week I will have been double jabbed for 2 months. Patience is wearing thin.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

You do these stats everyday russellw, so what in all honesty do you think is going to happen down the track here in Australia!

Just what you think, personally

Personally, I think our lives will be changed for a number of years and I even expect that there will be some impact to our average life expectancies which had been rising over the last 2 decades.

That's the long term view.

In the short term (the next 3 months), I expect to see a rise in case numbers and deaths as we start to open up in much the same way that other countries like the UK, Israel and Singapore have seen. That, in turn, may lead to localised lockdowns and/or some restrictions being put back in place given that one of the key points from the recently released AIHW report on the 2020 outbreaks identified that "~12.5% of people with COVID-19 were admitted to hospital for treatment" which is not only higher that I thought but cause for concern if we see the sort of increases those countries have had.

Let's take Israel as an example. Their adult population is 5.9M and their vaccination rate is considerably higher than ours but in the last 45 days they have had 214,507 cases and 968 deaths so in Australian terms that would be 653k cases, 2,950 deaths (at a CMR of 0.451) and 78k hospitalisations in a 45 day period. I know that's a worst-case scenario (well maybe) but it has to be food for thought.

The UK is a bit better with a CMR over 60 days of 0.292% but Florida is worse with a 45 day CMR of >1.010% so take your pick.

In the mid term (3-6 months), the path will very much depend on what happens in those first 45 days of 'freedom'. If we see major uncontrolled outbreaks in that first period, it's likely that 'freedom' will get a new meaning and I really don't expect to see a time in that period when masks shouldn't be compulsory (indoors at least) along with restrictions on gathering sizes and (of course) there'll be very little freedom for the unvaccinated.

That's all crystal ball stuff so I'm not even thinking of it as a prediction - more of a spit-balling exercise.

[GO FURTHER]

Russ, unless I am reading your graph wrong, should today not show 473 cases?

Thanks - I've updated the original graph as it was missing today. It also means the trend line continues to increase!

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

Still no reprieve for Shepp, virtually zero new cases since last week, there was a couple early last week, but not much

How come we are still locked down and put into the same category as those dodgy ****ers in Melbourne?

Don't be surprised if you stay in lockdown as I'm thinking country Vic or some more regions may be heading back into lockdown and people can blame themselves for it.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Do you buy "we are all in this together?"



I'm really hoping they extend the 10km to at least 25km, otherwise there is really no change, for me anyways. Vic Gov has got to give a bit more carrot for those jabbed. As of next week I will have been double jabbed for 2 months. Patience is wearing thin.

Patience young padawan!

[russellw]

Another data source (ourworldindata.org, as at 8th September) has Singapore at “only” (my interpretation) 76,5% fully Covid-vaccinated. I would also think given the climate and population density there are potentially quite different factors affecting the spread of coronavirus in its people when compared to Australia.

Amazing what you can do with data.

Singapore (as of yesterday) has 80% vaccinated but that's based on the TOTAL population of 5.89M as they have fully vaccinated 4.51M people. We are only looking to vaccinate 80% of the eligible population (12+) which means we are currently at 42.08% of eligible (nationally) and 33.7% of total population fully vaccinated.

Actually, it's a bit worse as the data being used in the National target is 80% of over 16's so that's another ~1M people not being counted in the target percentages but that's an estimate because the population breakdown is in 5 year age ranges so it doesn't cover 12-15's.

Here is the current fully vaccinated data based on both eligible (16+) population and total population (estimated) for each State as of yesterday:

NSW: 46.76% and 37.1%;
VIC: 40.18% and 33.3%;
QLD: 37.61% and 30.2%
ACT: 50.32% and 40.5%;
TAS: 47.94% and 39.5%;
SA: 39.74% and 32.9%
WA: 37.45% and 30.0%;
NT: 43.62% and 34.1%

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The "freedom" Dan gave us is sweet fa anyway. May as well still be locked down.

It's all chairman dan knows how to do anyway. Even when we hit 80% he'll still be reaching for the lockdown button when he see's fit.

I get quite ****ed at the reference to 'Chairman Dan' - it just shows a huge level of ignorance about how the Emergency Provisions work in Victoria. The Government (not the Premier) have to follow the advice of the Chief Health Officer's office. The Premier is just a spokesperson for the Government on these matters.

Smarten up your homework and find out how the system works - this name calling bull-**** is exactly the same tirade that was unleashed on Julia Gillard - it is weak as ****.

I am not that happy either, but at least I do my best to educate myself on the process

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Don't be surprised if you stay in lockdown as I'm thinking country Vic or some more regions may be heading back into lockdown and people can blame themselves for it.

I would be more that a little annoyed if they lock down down all regional Victoria again, they singled out Shepp as a stand alone in regional Victoria, they did it for us they can do it for other LGA's that are recording numbers

Shepp has worked its **** off to quarantine and to get vaccinated, it would be a poor reward

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The "freedom" Dan gave us is sweet fa anyway. May as well still be locked down.

It's all chairman dan knows how to do anyway. Even when we hit 80% he'll still be reaching for the lockdown button when he see's fit.

So what is the Premier of Victoria doing differently to the Premiers of Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia? Why aren't you calling them Dictators as well

I have been told on here a number of times that the Sydney lockdown was waaaay tougher than Victoria's so why aren't you calling the Premier of NSW a dictator too?

Could this be a little bit of Labor hating?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I get quite ****ed at the reference to 'Chairman Dan' - it just shows a huge level of ignorance about how the Emergency Provisions work in Victoria. The Government (not the Premier) have to follow the advice of the Chief Health Officer's office. The Premier is just a spokesperson for the Government on these matters.

Smarten up your homework and find out how the system works - this name calling bull-**** is exactly the same tirade that was unleashed on Julia Gillard - it is weak as ****.

I am not that happy either, but at least I do my best to educate myself on the process

It is interesting how the whole CHO thing works in Vic. I find this part of the act funny in a "yes minister" kind of way.

(2) Subject to the general direction and control of
the Secretary, the Chief Health Officer has the
powers, duties, functions and immunities that are
conferred or imposed on the Chief Health Officer
by or under this or any other Act

The "secretary" is defined as the department head. So according to this, the CHO make the rules, but the Health Minister directs and controls him.

This is where everyone can blame someone else, everyone has the power, but can say someone else made the decision!!!

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I get quite ****ed at the reference to 'Chairman Dan' - it just shows a huge level of ignorance about how the Emergency Provisions work in Victoria. The Government (not the Premier) have to follow the advice of the Chief Health Officer's office. The Premier is just a spokesperson for the Government on these matters.

Smarten up your homework and find out how the system works - this name calling bull-**** is exactly the same tirade that was unleashed on Julia Gillard - it is weak as ****.

I am not that happy either, but at least I do my best to educate myself on the process

I agree with you.
The 'Chairman Dan' reference is the poster parroting News Corp and SkyNews propaganda.
It amazes me how adults will blindly turn into obedient children and do this.
Yes it reminds me too of the horrible smear and name-calling campaign by the very same group towards Gillard

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I would be more that a little annoyed if they lock down down all regional Victoria again, they singled out Shepp as a stand alone in regional Victoria, they did it for us they can do it for other LGA's that are recording numbers

Shepp has worked its **** off to quarantine and to get vaccinated, it would be a poor reward

To be quite honest Trevor everyone has been working hard to get rid of this virus so we can get our freedoms back, you have had only a mild taste of lockdowns compared to us city dodgy ****ers as you put it so I don't see why you should be released until Chairman Dan thinks the Shepparton people are cleansed properly of the virus.
Excuse my sarcassm but I could not help myself.
Cheers.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I get quite ****ed at the reference to 'Chairman Dan' - it just shows a huge level of ignorance about how the Emergency Provisions work in Victoria. The Government (not the Premier) have to follow the advice of the Chief Health Officer's office. The Premier is just a spokesperson for the Government on these matters.

Smarten up your homework and find out how the system works - this name calling bull-**** is exactly the same tirade that was unleashed on Julia Gillard - it is weak as ****.

I am not that happy either, but at least I do my best to educate myself on the process

Do you seriously think the premier doesn't have the final say? He just works off the CHO's advice, the CHO doesn't have the power to do things he wants to do. Get your head out of the sand.

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

So what is the Premier of Victoria doing differently to the Premiers of Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia? Why aren't you calling them Dictators as well

I have been told on here a number of times that the Sydney lockdown was waaaay tougher than Victoria's so why aren't you calling the Premier of NSW a dictator too?

Could this be a little bit of Labor hating?

No one in the world has locked down more than Dan. But gladys has done a terrible job too.

I'm a labor voter, but i'm not one who kisses dan's **** cause of whatever side of politics he's from. That's for the truly ignorant.

Kind of ironic considering all the shots you fire at the libs. Talk about hypocrisy.

[Bossxr8]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...orts/100456088

The people of the UK have spoken. Will the people of australia do the same, or just keep accepting having their freedom of choice taken away by the government?

The people should have the right to choose what they want to do, and not have it forced on them via underhanded means.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Do you seriously think the premier doesn't have the final say? He just works off the CHO's advice, the CHO doesn't have the power to do things he wants to do. Get your head out of the sand.

No one in the world has locked down more than Dan. But gladys has done a terrible job too.

I'm a labor voter, but i'm not one who kisses dan's **** cause of whatever side of politics he's from. That's for the truly ignorant.

Kind of ironic considering all the shots you fire at the libs. Talk about hypocrisy.

The Government makes the decisions on advice, The Premier CANNOT makes the rules himself, on his own, by his lonesome, all by himself - what don't you understand?

were you in this group? No man would stand by and let this happen

[Itsme]

QUOTE=Bossxr8;6627618
Kind of ironic considering all the shots you fire at the libs. Talk about hypocrisy.

Fully agree, you hit the nail on the head but old mate can't see he is bigoted in his political views.

[MITCHAY]

Yass in a snap lockdown now for 2 weeks.

Apparently some road map will be announced tomorrow for the ACT but fully expect another lockdown extension to go with it.