Petrol Price crisis......

[roKWiz]

Watched a guy filling his RAM this morning, $284. Ouch.
Then spent $10 of it leaving the servo driveway.

[jpd80]

One good thing about the Ford V6 Ecoboost engines versus the GM/Ram V8s is that they use a lot less fuel idling in peak hour gridlock. The V8 cylinder deactivation only works when cruising, not at idle.

[jpd80]

So where will fuel prices be by Christmas, $3/litre?
How much before people cry enough and change…..

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

So where will fuel prices be by Christmas, $3/litre?
How much before people cry enough and change…..

It went from $0.16/L to $0.32/L and Kazakhstan set their country on fire

[nibble]

PULP $2.20 at local today. Hmmm. At this rate I think I may be going EV sooner rather than later.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by smoo

Promo for this type of stuff seems wildly optimistic but vague on specifics. 500km of range, at what weight and terrain travelled.
How much $$ to charge these things to achieve max range, and how many battery packs is needed for a fleet of say ten trucks running between two main cities...

400 kms for B Double, 500 kms for conventional Semi Trailer.

On their website Janus says the conversion is similar to a major rebuild $150,000 or about a third of a new ICE Truck.

Janus also says that it costs about $110,000 for the battery or they can be rented for $140 per day, thinking that would be roughly $1000 per week, which is better compared to Diesel daily consumption.

Yes, they are really promoting this to raise $8 million ahead of an IPO towards the end of the year, so maybe more expansion of services after that. I think we’re getting an insight into the future where fleets don’t have to spend $450k on a new ICE or BEV truck. Even the yanks haven’t thought of battery exchange through the front of the vacant engine bay, that’s Aussie thinking, the grille is meh though….

The cost of an engine rebuilt (approx $30-40k to inframe a Cummins) to convert to full electric, sounds too good to be true.
Brakes on most line haul units good for 1 million km or close to.
By then if the linings/pads haven't worn, S Cams/bushes or caliper pins/bushes will be flogged out due to vibration regardless of what is powering the truck, so thats a moot point.
Hydro gearbox retarders will work as good as any regenerative braking and make conventional brakes, and engine brakes redundant. So another moot point.
Brake fade is down to operator abuse or negligence (drive to conditions etc) not the tech used. Plus, brake fade isn't a regular thing, so thats clutching at straws to promote the supposed virtues of unproven tech in this application.

I was thinking regen on trailer brakes as well but not sure if I misled you….
Regenerative brakes improve efficiency and save energy that would normally be lost to friction and heat, over a million klms that adds up to tons of saved “fuel”. Fleet managers interest in whole of life running costs would have to consider that…

Also, an electric cab is a much nicer place to be with no buzzing droning diesel with vibrations for hours tiring the driver. There’s a lot of good things coming once we get past holding onto diesel. Heck, autonomous vehicles on mine dump trucks and straddle carriers transporters in port areas are proving that removing humans might save on maintenance and breakdowns. Not for all situations of course but it does offer the solution to driver fatigue…..

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Also, an electric cab is a much nicer place to be with no buzzing droning diesel with vibrations for hours tiring the driver. .

Dunno about this new fangle stuff. I would probably need to buy a CD soundtrack of Driptroits to go with it.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Dunno about this new fangle stuff. I would probably need to buy a CD soundtrack of Driptroits to go with it.

What about a Cleveland sound track purring along under the floorboards, might make you all misty….

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

What about a Cleveland sound track purring along under the floorboards, might make you all misty….

Little petrol engine.....meh

[smoo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

400 kms for B Double, 500 kms for conventional Semi Trailer.

At what weight though, a double full of tissues at 25 tonne gross is going to use significantly less energy than one full of coke bottles at 60 tonne. I assume they are quoting best case figures?

Originally Posted by jpd80

On their website Janus says the conversion is similar to a major rebuild $150,000 or about a third of a new ICE Truck.

Janus also says that it costs about $110,000 for the battery or they can be rented for $140 per day, thinking that would be roughly $1000 per week, which is better compared to Diesel daily consumption.

Might have their figures mixed up or seriously skewed to swing in their favour.
A crate engine with warranty from most makers is around ~$60k. Rebuild around half that. A far cry from $150k.

Is it safe to guess one of these running say Syd to Melb will need 3 battery packs per truck as a precaution. One at each depot, one half way. So that $140/day is going to be $280 or 420/day...

Originally Posted by jpd80

I was thinking regen on trailer brakes as well but not sure if I misled you….
Regenerative brakes improve efficiency and save energy that would normally be lost to friction and heat, over a million klms that adds up to tons of saved “fuel”. Fleet managers interest in whole of life running costs would have to consider that…

Yes fair enough, I was under the impression regenerative braking was mentioned in regards to brake wear on conventional trucks, as if they're doing relines on a monthly basis.

Originally Posted by jpd80

Also, an electric cab is a much nicer place to be with no buzzing droning diesel with vibrations for hours tiring the driver. There’s a lot of good things coming once we get past holding onto diesel. Heck, autonomous vehicles on mine dump trucks and straddle carriers transporters in port areas are proving that removing humans might save on maintenance and breakdowns. Not for all situations of course but it does offer the solution to driver fatigue…..

They're all pretty civilised now. Minimal vibration, and any is cancelled out by poor quality road surface which takes more of a toll on fatigue than the sound of a muffled engine.
Each to their own though. In a similar way car enthusiasts are a dying breed, no kid is going to aspire to drive a characterless electric truck when they grow up.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Dunno about this new fangle stuff. I would probably need to buy a CD soundtrack of Driptroits to go with it.

If they are making these memes on Volvo drivers I wonder what they are gonna come up with about drivers of electric trucks.

[Franco Cozzo]

Not related to unleaded but related to our massive gas resources:

Call for gas reservation policy on east coast of Australia as energy prices soar

“We have more gas than you can poke a stick at – the problem is most of it is exported at world market prices and that leads to Australians paying a lot more for gas than they should.

“It is our gas; it doesn’t belong to these multinationals. We grant them a licence to export this finite resource and in return they, and the government, they in turn need to meet their social licence obligations.”

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...93958ecd6ff4b9

Of course this could only happen here in Australia, export so much of our natural resources that we create shortages locally and charge our own people out the *** for something we have an abundance of, while we sell it to China and Japan for cents in the dollar on fixed price contracts over 5-10 year periods

Might be time we nationalise these resources I think - vote one Franco

Using gas for heating is a crap idea IMO - better off using split systems/refrigeration cycle as its probably more cost effective, you're only powering the compressor moving refrigerant around and the fan, and just moving heat around from the air outside to inside.

We don't have that many areas in the country that regularly see below -5 degrees C where the efficiency drops off a cliff.

The problem is if we use gas for power generation (and we do), you'll see this reflected in your power bills.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

We don't have that many areas in the country that regularly see below -5 degrees C where the efficiency drops off a cliff.

We do here. No one uses reverse cycle for heating here, its too expensive.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

We do here. No one uses reverse cycle for heating here, its too expensive.

So do we, but 40% of Australia lives in Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan areas where it doesn't get this cold

Given there's been a 520% increase in gas prices in eastern states over the past two years, you may find modern split systems will be better even in colder climates where they aren't as efficient.

I like how they use the war in Ukraine to justify gas price increase, last time I checked our LNG is on our door step, not in Ukraine, its just like COVID being blamed for everything.

Order tenders at KFC, takes 20 minutes, sorry war in Ukraine causing 20 minute delay on tenders at the moment.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

So do we, but 40% of Australia lives in Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan areas where it doesn't get this cold

Did you hear on the news a couple of days ago the cost of electricity would go up in Vic by 5% and NSW possibly 18%. To keep it on subject, diesel is currently $2.05 here.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Did you hear on the news a couple of days ago the cost of electricity would go up in Vic by 5% and NSW possibly 18%. To keep it on subject, diesel is currently $2.05 here.

Diesel $2.08 here, out of curiosity is anyone tracking their fuel usage with fuelly? So far in 2022, I'm averaging about 11 cents per kilometer in my diesel Focus for this year, where as during COVID lockdowns it was around 7 cents per kilometer.

I'm guessing power price increases will be blamed on:

1) COVID
2) War in Ukraine

Wonder if the bigger increase in NSW is because more power generation using gas?

My cars are doing a bit of driving for someone without a licence, its not me driving them though

So far the most I've paid for fuel was $2.47/L for 98 in Mallacoota far eastern side of VIC, locally here for diesel was $2.22/L.

I saw $1.30/L for LPG in Taree, NSW which is the most I've ever seen it for when it was going for $1/L in Sydney.

Wholesale LNG prices hit $58.44/GJ last year in VIC, so there's pain coming for those using LNG at home to heat water and their house if they start throwing around war in Ukraine as the excuse for higher gas prices.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Wonder if the bigger increase in NSW is because more power generation using gas?

.

Something to do with less self sufficient power generation they have according to the news.

[T3rminator]

Its an energy "crisis", of which petrol is just one form. Mates in the UK have reported that their power bills have gone up 100% over the last 12 months, and is expected to go up another 30-50% on top of that in the next 3 months.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Its an energy "crisis", of which petrol is just one form. Mates in the UK have reported that their power bills have gone up 100% over the last 12 months, and is expected to go up another 30-50% on top of that in the next 3 months.

Can understand Europe because huge reliance on Russian oil and gas, makes sense for them.

Doesn't make sense for Australia given our huge natural resources, ours is a crisis of retarded politicians (and voters who elected them).

[kevino]

I recently changed to a Brisbane based small energy retailer for electricity.
I got an e mail from them Friday advising prices are going up 110 per cent from June 1.
Obviously the market isn’t working for them anymore.
110 per cent is a go away we don’t want you advice.
Back to AGL. Supposedly the companies that are joint retailers and power generators will be more competitive than small retail only sellers of electricity.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by GASWAGON

Thank christ Albo won the election and will be raising wages for the poor buggers on minimum wage.

The fuel excise cut has basically done nothing for us all as prices are straight back to where they were 2 months ago!!!

that will go one of two ways, reduction in staff to cover the cost.
small businesses will close..

higher unemployment..

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Something to do with less self sufficient power generation they have according to the news.

For anyone interested if you go to this website you can look at the fuel mix each state is using to generate power and how much power they are generating, as well as spot prices:

https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/e...-dashboard-nem

Over the past 3 months, VIC generated 70% of its power from brown coal - why are our power prices going up? Ukraine war effecting price of brown coal coming out of the ground in Gippsland?

Honorable mention for SA on 11-12th of May and suddenly generating 62% of its power from gas and another 17% from diesel generators.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Order tenders at KFC, takes 20 minutes, sorry war in Ukraine causing 20 minute delay on tenders at the moment.

That's it. Invoke Article 5.

[Sprintey]

Here's a link to coal futures prices Franco, yes, they've gone up like all metals and energy commodities - and ominously, grains and agricultural commodities.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

My suspicion as to the cause is actually all the currency printed as response to corona - Austrian economics teaches that inflation is an increase in the currency supply, and that went absolutely nuts over the last 2 years

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicato...oney-supply-m2

[Sprintey]

do the 10 year options on both of those... correlation is not causation, but...

[whynot]

For those who get their jollies reading dry economic papers, the article “Historical Oil Shocks” by Hamilton, J. from the book “Handbook of Major Events in Economic History” is a good read. An extract of Hamilton’s chapter is available here https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/oil_history.pdf (about 50 pages including references and charts). It is quite fascinating reading, starting at the first crude oil well in 1859.

While every oil price shock (and there have been several) are unique, there is some interesting characteristics of the 2022 event. First are the wild swings in global consumption due to COVID-19. It was only two years ago that the pump price in my area fell below a $1/l at one (brief) point in April 2020. Future oil prices were negative, and one couldn’t give the product away. By itself, this would discourage investing in more exploration and extraction. Second is the push by some to transition away from fossil fuels, including specific targeting of banks and financial institutions that supply funding for hydrocarbon exploration. Third has been the dynamic around Ukraine and Russian oil exports, coupled with those who are producing oil are (as it natural in a market economy) extracting as high a price as possible.

What is more interesting to me is the medium to longer term impact on consumer behaviour. In economists speak, consumer behaviour with hydrocarbon is relatively inelastic in the short term and reasonable elastic in the longer term. In other words, consider if one has a V8 GT-F and that is the daily driver to work. It is probably beyond a typical person’s economic means to swap vehicles. So, the driver has to accept the price increase. In economist speak, their ability to change behaviour in response to a change in price is relatively inelastic. However, in the longer term, they may respond by selling the GT-F and buying a Festiva diesel.

Unlike past oil price shocks, where consumers were restricted to moving along their demand curve, what is becoming available this time around is a substitute. (An example of a substitution of a product is buying Coke verses Pepsi.) The electric vehicle is looming as a good, but not perfect, substitute. Further, as the “fuel” is manufactured locally, it completely snips it clear the geopolitical issues. Yes, EV are expensive, but I do firmly believe that their cost will come down in time. Yes, the price of electricity is going up, but doings the maths indicates it is still much cheaper than hydrocarbon.

As for the price of oil, I will stick my neck out and make a prediction. Assuming the war in Ukraine does not become conflagrated, sooner or later it will come to an end. And when it does, Russia will be looking to rebuild its army, its economy, and its international currency reserves. That suggests it will be pumping as much hydrocarbon as it possibly can. In turn, leading to a decline, possibly a collapse, in oil pricing. As they say, watch this space …

[MrEL]

The big players in life are pushing the envelope to find the breaking point of us ordinary people.
Before too long it will get to the stage where for a lot of people it is no longer financially viable to go to work , especially if they have 2 or 3 kids.
Childcare , fuel costs , tolls etc.
People will get to the point that they will find that if they take the above off their weekly expenses by quiting their jobs and claim the rock and roll , they will actually have more money in their pocket each week.
Stay at home , have more of a part in their kids upbringing , have a small vege patch and bake their own bread.
Once fuel sales die in the **** , toll operators are not getting as much revenue , childcare centres shut due to loosing half their enrolments, businesses are screaming because they having even more issues getting workers then they are now , the government's incoming tax revenue drops steeply whilst at the same time they are paying out more in welfare there will be a snap to reality.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by smoo

At what weight though, a double full of tissues at 25 tonne gross is going to use significantly less energy than one full of coke bottles at 60 tonne. I assume they are quoting best case figures?




Might have their figures mixed up or seriously skewed to swing in their favour.
A crate engine with warranty from most makers is around ~$60k. Rebuild around half that. A far cry from $150k.

Is it safe to guess one of these running say Syd to Melb will need 3 battery packs per truck as a precaution. One at each depot, one half way. So that $140/day is going to be $280 or 420/day...



Yes fair enough, I was under the impression regenerative braking was mentioned in regards to brake wear on conventional trucks, as if they're doing relines on a monthly basis.



They're all pretty civilised now. Minimal vibration, and any is cancelled out by poor quality road surface which takes more of a toll on fatigue than the sound of a muffled engine.
Each to their own though. In a similar way car enthusiasts are a dying breed, no kid is going to aspire to drive a characterless electric truck when they grow up.

Thanks, appreciate your input and obviously the new guys are trying to sway perception but also curry favor with investors for IPO later in the year. Most likely they present worst possible case to improve their changeover figures, maybe imisleading maybe not

So yeah there’s spin mixed in with truth and thing that are not so….fleet managers will get to the bottom of it and if the figures don’t work, they’re out of business.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Its an energy "crisis", of which petrol is just one form. Mates in the UK have reported that their power bills have gone up 100% over the last 12 months, and is expected to go up another 30-50% on top of that in the next 3 months.

Hasn't quite reached 1970's crisis standards yet. I can remember sitting in my dads furniture truck waiting to buy fuel listening to this.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Here's a link to coal futures prices Franco, yes, they've gone up like all metals and energy commodities - and ominously, grains and agricultural commodities.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

My suspicion as to the cause is actually all the currency printed as response to corona - Austrian economics teaches that inflation is an increase in the currency supply, and that went absolutely nuts over the last 2 years

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicato...oney-supply-m2

Its the most ridiculous thing ever, why are Australians competing on market prices for our own resources?

How much you reckon Saudi Arabia is paying for 98? It ain't no $2.20/L thats for sure, its like $0.35/L at the moment with sky high oil prices and so it should be, its their oil.

This whole fiasco over gas prices, the gas companies don't pay any taxes, they only stump up the licensing fee, then in the case of WA they only have a tiny amount of the gas they have to reserve for WA's local consumption and the rest is cream going at market rates globally (including to Australians outside of WA).

At this point, if we're paying market prices on our own resources, why even have a local gas industry? Just import it from another country and let them ruin their own environment, we're paying the same rate as everyone else anyway and we're not receiving any revenue from it in the form of taxes either.

I'm not joking when I say we should nationalise our resources, if this **** is going to keep up and we're going to get torn a new ******* on our own resources nor receive any revenue from them in the form of taxes, then its time we take them back.

We're talking about inflation rate at 5.1%, whats the actual inflation rate if we were printing off Australian pesos at rates never seen before?