Covid 19 -

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

BTW, it appears that those who have caught covid recently and who are not allowed to get the jab, do in fact, get an exemption. Said anti vax friend that caught covid recently, will be getting a certificate exempting her from the jab for 6 months, and will be allowed to do all the things that a vaxxed person can do in the mean time.

It's going to be like a chicken pox party!!!

Raress beat me to it!!!!

[T3rminator]

haha and that is exactly what we were just discussing. Catch it very 6 months, get 2 weeks off....PAID, and avoid the jab. Surely new variant every 6 months?

Anyway, I'm keen to see this certificate. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Cav]

You haven't lived on the edge if you haven't had a post deleted in the Covid thread

[Work Horse]

Stand up drinking allowed in Victoria from 12.00 tonight!!


Who's with me!

[FairmontGS]

On my way tomorrow! Get them set up.

[blue sleeper]

Originally Posted by rare ss

Rona party.. just like sending the kids around to sleepovers with the chicken pox kids in school

Is that you Helmut Marko?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/...virus-n1172156

[Syndrome]

I calculated that since Feb 2020 I've only covered about 52% of my usual monthly mileage. Saved a few bucks on fuel, plus less wear and tear on the car. The only positive I can see from this farce we are living through.

[CoupeKing]

For a solid two years nurses were constantly called heroes on the front-line.
So why would you sack experienced nurses during a pandemic that certain people keep stating that the hospitals are overrun and the vaxx was over 80%?

And just like that, leading up to Christmas, plenty of restrictions are lifted. I called this at least 6 months ago.





https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/...vention-funds/

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

And just like that, leading up to Christmas, plenty of restrictions are lifted. I called this at least 6 months ago.

You called it that when we got to ~90% double-vaxxed that the plague would subside? Well done

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by cs123

So that means no NSW app, no checkins, no vaccine mandates?

And right on que, NSW Services Minister was just on ABC Sydney and said that QR Code will begin to be turned off for "low risk" locations, like outdoor venues, cafes, coffee shops, etc. "High risk" like aged care facilities will remain.

He said that they could be turned back on later if we get a spike in cases.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 216 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0105 (from 1.0479) while the actual line is a bit further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 1,273 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0327 (from 1.0012) while the actual line moves further above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

And right on que, NSW Services Minister was just on ABC Sydney and said that QR Code will begin to be turned off for "low risk" locations, like outdoor venues, cafes, coffee shops, etc. "High risk" like aged care facilities will remain.

He said that they could be turned back on later if we get a spike in cases.

We had the same new draconian restrictions due to begin here on Dec1st (double vax proof to enter virtually anywhere, including hotels, restaurants etc)
Yet, Zero requirements for entering the country apart from compulsive covid health insurance… No negative test, no Vax QR… Nothing!
December here is the beginning of high season… Costa Rican tourism board turned on Government and said “you’ll destroy our high season”.. Letting people in with no vax requirements, yet when they arrive they can’t stay or go anywhere!
Oooops said Gov… “let’s change that til.. Ummm, how’s May 1st sound?”

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 18th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,266 new cases for Australia and 15 deaths so the CMR is 0.990%.

167 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.370%.

The UK had 46,858 cases yesterday and 199 deaths for a CMR of 1.477%.

116,534 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,519 deaths sees CMR at 1.632%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 256M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe sets a new daily high with 378,847 cases;
Asia passes 81M cases;
Oceania deaths pass 4,000 - almost half in Australia;

South Korea (3,287) - the previous high on 25/09/2020;
Austria (15,145);
Netherlands (23,591); and
Germany (64,164)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Some interesting research out of Scotland on deaths amongst the fully vaccinated.

COVID-19-related deaths in fully vaccinated individuals were defined as death in those who tested positive by RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 at any time-point more than 14 days after receiving their second dose of Pfizer–BioNTech or Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines and subsequently died with COVID-19 listed as an underlying or contributory cause of death on the death certificate.

Of the 3,273,336 individuals in Scotland who were fully vaccinated by Aug 18, 2021 (73·6% of the eligible population), 1,205,642 individuals received two doses of Pfizer and 2,026,198 individuals received two doses of Astrazeneca. As there were no deaths among the 41,496 individuals who received two doses of Moderna vaccine during the study period, they were not further considered in this analysis.

236 deaths in fully vaccinated people were recorded (0·007% of the total vaccinated): 47 (0·004%) of those individuals had received Pfizer (median age 74·0 years and 188 (0·009%) individuals had received Astrazeneca (median age 80·0 years. One death was in an individual who received a first dose of Astrazeneca followed by a second dose of Pfizer. 195 (82·6%) individuals had COVID-19 as the underlying cause of mortality and 41 (17·4%) had COVID-19 as a contributing cause of mortality.

Within the vaccine-eligible population of Scotland aged 65–79 years, the death rate per 10,000 person-years was 64.8 for unvaccinated individuals and 4.2 for fully vaccinated individuals. This difference in death rate was most marked in the population older than 80 years (14.0 deaths per 10k person-years for fully vaccinated vs 420.1 deaths per 10k person-years for unvaccinated individuals older than 80 years) but attenuated in individuals aged 18–64 years (0.8 deaths per 10k person-years for fully vaccinated vs 3.1 deaths per 10k person-years for unvaccinated individuals aged 18–64 years). For fully vaccinated individuals who subsequently tested positive, there was a median of 8.0 days (IQR 5–13) between a positive test and dying of COVID-19.

Exec summary.

If you are 65-79 then your chance of dying if infected is 15x greater if unvaccinated which aligns with other similar studies;
If you are 80+ then your chance of dying if infected is 30x greater if unvaccinated; and
If you are 18-64 then your chance of dying if infected is 3.8x greater if unvaccinated.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

On my way tomorrow! Get them set up.

Now that's a MANDATE.

[hayseed]

Russell, Your Predictive Trend line, Looks to be a very steep & sharp upward trend to Me.. any idea how high it'll go..?

[MITCHAY]

It's been good to be back at work in the office this week and seeing the city slowly coming back to life.

A lot of business have gone under which sucks

[DJR-351]

Austria to enter lockdown, bring in mandatory vaccinations

https://www.9news.com.au/world/austr...inated-_191121

Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg has announced the country will go into a national lockdown to contain a fourth wave of the coronavirus.

On Friday, Mr Schallenberg said the lockdown would start on Monday and initially last for 10 days. Most stores will close and cultural events will be cancelled.

He initially said said all students would have to go back into home schooling.

Health Minister Wolfgang Mueckstein later said schools would remain open for those who needed to go but all parents were asked to keep their children at home if possible.

Starting on February 1, the country will also make vaccinations mandatory, public broadcaster ORF reported.

"We do not want a fifth wave," Mr Schallenberg said, according to ORF.

"Nor do we want a sixth or seventh wave."

Austria had initially introduced a national lockdown only for the unvaccinated, which started Monday but as virus cases continued to skyrocket the government said it had no choice but to extend it to everyone.

"This is very painful," Mr Schallenberg said.

The national lockdown will initially last for 10 days before the effects are assessed. If virus cases have not gone down sufficiently, it can be extended to a maximum of 20 days.

Austria's intensive care doctors welcomed the government's decision.

"The record infection figures that we have now experienced day after day will only be reflected in normal and intensive care units with a time lag. It really is high time for a full stop," Walter Hasibeder, the president of the Society for Anaesthesiology, Resuscitation and Intensive Care Medicine told Austrian news agency APA.

"Given the current infection developments, we believe there are no alternatives to even greater contact restriction than recently, so any measures that help curb the momentum are welcome."

Austria, a country of 8.9 million, has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Western Europe.

For the past seven days, the country has reported more than 10,000 new infection cases daily. Hospitals have been overwhelmed with many new COVID-19 patients, and deaths have been rising again, too. So far, 11,525 people have died of the virus in Austria.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed with many new COVID-19 patients and deaths have been rising again too.

Despite all the persuasion and campaigns, too few people had decided to get vaccinated, Mr Schallenberg said, leaving the country no other choice but to introduce mandatory vaccinations in February.

The Chancellor said the details would be finalised in the coming weeks but those who continued to refuse to get vaccinated would have to expect to get fined.

"For a long time, the consensus in this country was that we didn't want mandatory vaccination," Mr Schallenberg said.

"For a long time, perhaps too long."

[russellw]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Russell, Your Predictive Trend line, Looks to be a very steep & sharp upward trend to Me.. any idea how high it'll go..?

image

I don't and I really think it will trend back a bit given the current trend however it does take awhile before the trend line reflects those changes.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 19th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,513 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 0.988%.

200 new cases and 3 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.394%.

The UK had 44,237 cases yesterday and 157 deaths for a CMR of 1.472%.

110,203 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,444 deaths sees CMR at 1.631%.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 5.15M, the last 50k in 7 days;
Global cases exceeded 600k for the first time since 10th September;
North America passes 58M cases;
Brazil passes 22M cases;

Hungary (11,289) - the previous high on 26/03/2021; and
Austria (15,809)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 182 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9979 (from 1.0105) while the actual line is a bit further below the predictive trend line.





VIC records 1,166 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0304 (from 1.0327) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

[russellw]

We've not looked at the data set for awhile so here is the breakdown of Australian case numbers by age:



.. 29.6% are < 20 years of age; 59% are between 20 and 59 years of age and 11.3% are >60 years of age.

Here is the same data expressed as number per 100k of population where the three largest groups are 30-39 (1833/100k); 10-19 (1941/100k) and 20-29 (2,134/100k).



Looking at the mortality data, there are no deaths amongst the <10 age group and only 2 deaths in the 10-19 age group so they are left out of the chart. As you'd expect, 84.5% of all COVID deaths are in the 70+ age group but there are also 104 deaths among the under 60's.



In conjunction with that, the case mortality rate climbs steadily (and then rapidly) as you age from:
0.01% between 10-19;
0.02% between 20-29;
0.03% between 30-39;
0.09% between 40-49;
0.35% between 50-59;
0.98% between 60-69;
4.65% between 70-79; and
17.95% for the >80 age group.

The current Australian overall CMR is 0.998% so all age groups under 60 are below while all above 60 are above. It should be noted that these figures are probably slightly skewed against the older age groups after the aged care debacle of last year which contributed more than a third of the total deaths to date, all amongst the 60+ age groups.

[Citroënbender]

I’m waiting to see if my friend in Philadelphia mixes up Austria’s latest lockdown with the weekend demonstrations here…

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m waiting to see if my friend in Philadelphia mixes up Austria’s latest lockdown with the weekend demonstrations here…

Guaranteed same will happen here!…. I’ll expect numerous texts this morning from Canadians and gringos

[LG17]

Sadly there's now a child under 10 who has died with Covid. From what I read it seems as though that child was struggling with multiple health problems and Covid was the final straw.

[Citroënbender]

It’s interesting to see the ongoing disparity in new case numbers between NSW and Victoria. On simple pro-rating, the more southern state seems to mostly be doing better on cases that become messy or fatal.

[russellw]

We looked at the case numbers per 100k for each age group yesterday across the whole of pandemic but here is a quick look at the same data for the Delta outbreak only.



Here are the numbers compared with the whole of pandemic number first followed by the Delta:
< 10: 1,761.6 (3) and 1,656.7 (3)
10-19: 1,941.2 and 1,750.1 (2)
20-29: 2,133.9 (1) and 1,764.0 (1)
30-39: 1,833.1 (2) and 1,532.2
40-49: 1,459.7 and 1,219.3
50-59: 1,182.3 and 951.8
60-69: 844.3 and 650.3
70-79: 666.0 and 479.9
> 80: 967.6 and 572.0

.. and here is the case percentage by age group chart for Delta



I'm still trying to track down age based data for Delta mortalities.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m waiting to see if my friend in Philadelphia mixes up Austria’s latest lockdown with the weekend demonstrations here…

Philadelphia USA, or the other Philadelphia.....

[Citroënbender]

America, or as my friend deliberately calls it “The Untied States”. I’ve heard of so many of their colleagues and acquaintances (predominantly white, 50+ demographic, range of occupations, not overly sporty) becoming seriously ill or dying from Covid that it casts a sobering light on our comparative situation. And despite that, they will defend to their dying breath, the notions of personal freedom.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 20th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,352 new cases for Australia and 5 deaths so the CMR is 0.984%.

171 new cases and 1 death for NZ so CMR is 0.397%.

The UK had 39,881 cases yesterday and 150 deaths for a CMR of 1.467%.

112,084 new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,603 deaths sees CMR at 1.635%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 257M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe passes 70M cases;

Laos (1,344);
Slovakia (9,171); and
Czechia (22,936)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Romania drops below.