Used car prices

[hayseed]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...15-p55vu7.html

[Pis-ton broke]

just would like to know of other peoples views on the market at this time. i just sold a ranger over the phone for a good price , sold in three days of advertising.
i can't find another one in NSW for under $5000 ,that is complete or that doesn't over 300kms on it.

the market seems hot to me, why is this so?

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by Pis-ton broke

just would like to know of other peoples views on the market at this time. i just sold a ranger over the phone for a good price , sold in three days of advertising.
i can't find another one in NSW for under $5000 ,that is complete or that doesn't over 300kms on it.

the market seems hot to me, why is this so?

As the news article from the shm posted above, has pointed out, for various reasons used cars of any type are in demand & it's very much a supply & demand commodity.

New car finance is more difficult to obtain that it was in previous years, people may have lost their job (covid etc.) but they still need transport.

Also petrol is much cheaper than it has been for a few years, so a used car can be cheap transport.

Dr Terry

[xxx000]

Used car prices fell some years ago and became more realistic.
I know people who used to do up and sell cars regularly and made reasonable $ doing a couple a year. That stopped when the prices dropped.
The recent rises merely puts prices back where they were previously.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by xxx000

..I know people who used to do up and sell cars regularly and made reasonable $ doing a couple a year...

This them?

[ebv8]

i have bought and sold 3 cars during covid and made good coin on all of them
i bought a 4th but decided to keep it for now anyway
all 3 sold to the first looker and the last sold over the phone, he paid upfront and picked up a week later.

the big winner was a toyota hilux, paid $700, replaced headgasket and detailed it and sold for $4500, plus it was used in a commercial and that put another $1440 in my pocket

i think with people doing less driving to work they are looking at buying larger more practical cars and going on trips in cars towing things rather than flying so dual cabs, large sedans and suv's are going up in price while small s'boxs are not selling as well

[Bossxr8]

People can't travel overseas, so are lashing out and buying cars instead.

[anobserver]

Originally Posted by Pis-ton broke

just would like to know of other peoples views on the market at this time. i just sold a ranger over the phone for a good price , sold in three days of advertising.
i can't find another one in NSW for under $5000 ,that is complete or that doesn't over 300kms on it.

the market seems hot to me, why is this so?

Wish i knew. Prices are nuts, even mainstream media has noticed.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...15-p55vu7.html

Without overseas travel, there is some substitution purchasing going on, but that seems an incomplete explanation.

The scaling back of jobseeker and jobkeeper is happening but in the meantime the used car market is showing fewer cars advertised at higher prices.

Mortgage holidays have to end at some point. Initial reports suggest distressed mortgage rates are rising. What happens then? Do we see a big reversal as a whole bunch of cars come back onto the market to raise cash?

Very, very baffling.

[fiestaz]

Originally Posted by anobserver

Wish i knew. Prices are nuts, even mainstream media has noticed.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...15-p55vu7.html

Without overseas travel, there is some substitution purchasing going on, but that seems an incomplete explanation.

The scaling back of jobseeker and jobkeeper is happening but in the meantime the used car market is showing fewer cars advertised at higher prices.

Mortgage holidays have to end at some point. Initial reports suggest distressed mortgage rates are rising. What happens then? Do we see a big reversal as a whole bunch of cars come back onto the market to raise cash?

Very, very baffling.

A lot of people getting off public transport to drive instead, or work from home which could also mean they need another car for personal use.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by fiestaz

A lot of people getting off public transport to drive instead, or work from home which could also mean they need another car for personal use.

^^ This. I work for a company that is headquartered in the Sydney CBD and they are covering your parking ticket if you want to come into the office. I haven't been in, but others have and a couple of the crew have bought cheap second cars to facilitate that.

[Pis-ton broke]

Originally Posted by anobserver

The scaling back of jobseeker and jobkeeper is happening but in the meantime the used car market is showing fewer cars advertised at higher prices.

Mortgage holidays have to end at some point. Initial reports suggest distressed mortgage rates are rising. What happens then? Do we see a big reversal as a whole bunch of cars come back onto the market to raise cash?

Very, very baffling.

"Do we see a big reversal as a whole bunch of cars come back onto the market to raise cash?"

hey , i reckon that might happen, i was going to suggest it before, but a bit radical. but it makes sense to me, its being reported that foreclosures are going to be inevitable, and the recession effects on house hold spending.

[anobserver]

It might sound like im thinking wishfully, which i often hear expressed about the housing market and buyers currently locked out who want to swoop in. But cars are much cheaper and more liquid than housing. And the other issue is that any market that experiences big changes is generally doing so in a vastly changed context.

Double digit unemployment probably qualifies there.

Anyhoo... Australia has sold a million cars a year new since at least 2010.
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-adv...-figures-70982

Despite this, the average car is still around 10 years old. So there must be a large number of older cars still around.

New car sales peaked some three years ago after a climb dating back from the mid 80s. The dip as a result of the last recession is quite clear.

1985: 695,856,
1986: 530,251,
1987: 451,829,
1988: 512,161,
1989: 607,497,
1990: 617,298,
1991: 511,924,
1992: 541,634,
1993: 555,306,
1994: 616,286,
1995: 642,557,
1996: 650,049,
1997: 722,427,
1998: 807,669,
1999: 786,845,
2000:787,100,
2001: 772,681,
2002: 824,309,
2003: 909,811,
2004: 955,229,
2005: 988,269
2006: 962-965,000 (est).

Figures from here...
https://www.carsales.com.au/editoria...used-cars-7436

Then a bit of a gap.....

1.008m, 2011
1.112m in 2012,
1.36m in 2013 and
1.113m in 2014.
1.1155m 2015,
1.1178m 2016,
1.189m 2017,
1.153m 2018 and
1.062m, 2019

https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-adv...-figures-70982

And in 2020, looks like we will dip back the one million mark again for the first time in quite a while.

When i think back on 2017, its not clear to me what exactly has changed to erode sales. There could be any number of factors working together. Peak debt, perhaps?

Whatever happens, will happen in a broader context that may mean our intentions to buy or sell could change unpredictably. That sounds wishy washy.

More bluntly, even if the supply of new cars is crimped by supply chain challenges, we should have ample used cars to meet demand. Particularly if the population stagnates for two years or more with immigration turned off. But thats a whole separate topic.

We know that most new cars are financed. Business buys most of them. And we know that national gdp dropped 7 percent in the June quarter. A whole bunch of zombie businesses are unlikely to qualify for finance, surely...?

But car sales projections are impossible to guess at until next year at least when the assistance payments (seeker and keeper) are phased out. If they are and not replaced by a targeted ubi or increased basic theshold payment levels for job search assistance or business tax writeoffs.

Even then, there might be industry subsidies of some sort, depending on the skill of the lobbyists. Support your local car dealer. Or something.

[Rallye Sport]

Not so much prices I've noticed but sales times dropping.

Twelve months ago I bought a rally car after it being advertised for six months. Last week the same car sold in four hours and for the price I paid for it plus the cost of the engine rebuild.

Back on the horse, I've been looking for a ute to fill the hole in the garage, I haven't seen much advertised for longer than a fortnight even a beaten up 'tell him he's dreaming' unit disappeared from my watch list in five days.

I've got the luxury of time, not necessity on my side so the future will be interesting.

[anobserver]

But the reason for discussing new car sales in a used car discussion? Im sure there was a reason, i think they are related but also when sales of new or used cars change its often incremental and trends in a direction. Influenced by changjng product and consumer tastes, sure.

The change in the used market over the past six months are the most startling i can recall. I am seeing revaluations upwards of 20 per cent or more. One of the cars on my lists was repriced up by two thousand dollars. Ive never seen that in over 30 years.

So looking forward, i think the current price movements wont be sustained. Unfortunately, when they revert to mean it will probably be because of reduced seller pricing power, a need for ready cash, and/or an inability to maintain payments on leased or financed vehicles. That may not be pretty, and the general social mood may mean a buyer drought if noone else wants to buy anything.

[Pis-ton broke]

Originally Posted by anobserver

So looking forward, i think the current price movements wont be sustained. Unfortunately, when they revert to mean it will probably be because of reduced seller pricing power, a need for ready cash, and/or an inability to maintain payments on leased or financed vehicles. That may not be pretty, and the general social mood may mean a buyer drought if noone else wants to buy anything.

imo, a lot of younger (younger than me) people have no idea what a recession is. in 1987 and about 1992 , in my memory there was a downturn and recession (the recession we had to have, thanks paul keating). i was a young man trying to ride racehorses for a living, and it was hard . not just for me, but everybody. not much money going around. were,ve had 30 years of of good times. this year the stock markets dropped dramatically in may, april? , and bounced, maybe a dead cat bounce?
anyway , i think it,ll go to poo ,and a lot of naive people will get desperate and need to sell, causing a switch in market values. just my view on things.

[buggerlugs]

https://www.news.com.au/technology/m...763d63778c6380

[Citroënbender]

Spotted something interesting the other day.

Valiant Charger, older cheap restoration on a straight body - no collision deformation, minor corrosion in usual “fringe” places. Factory 318/auto, low spec interior. Biggest negative a ‘70s pop-up glass sunroof and daggy aftermarket chrome steelies.

As a low option V8 car it’s not fitted with many (any?) of the iconic doodads which make the high spec sixes so desirable.

Curious as to what a car like this would sell for, and what the market would see its ideal final incarnation as.

[Citroënbender]

Have detected a slight shifting (softening) in used Falcon ute prices the last 7-10 days. They’re still up there, even regionally.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Have detected a slight shifting (softening) in used Falcon ute prices the last 7-10 days. They’re still up there, even regionally.

Yeah it seems there has been a bit more calm around, more to come. If you sold for good coin in the last couple of months well played!

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Have detected a slight shifting (softening) in used Falcon ute prices the last 7-10 days. They’re still up there, even regionally.

your meaning late model ones I suspect.
High k ones arn't that bad to me the asking price, low k especially FGX's still pulling good $$$$$$$....

I was looking at Xseries utes the other night, mate they are still asking good $$$$'s for them and you still need to pour in alot of bucks

[Citroënbender]

Even the snot-boxes are still up. $600 utes are now $900-upwards. I’m sniffing around for a rust-free cab donor to fix the AU.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Even the snot-boxes are still up. $600 utes are now $900-upwards. I’m sniffing around for a rust-free cab donor to fix the AU.

Any particular colour, there's a few around here

[Citroënbender]

Silver is ideal but not fussy - I’ll message you in a while.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Another thing was mentioned on the radio today.

The Takata recall could be also causing this. Apparently there are several models that are being bought back as it is cheaper than replacing the airbag.

Toyota Starlet was one of them - only 5 cars for sale in the whole country.

And a Mitsubishi 4x4 - can't remember which one. Guy on the radio said he bought it for $3.5k before the recall only to be offered double in the buy back.

There are less than 130k card for sale now on carsales.com.au

Wasn't that long ago where I think the number was 100k more?

[Citroënbender]

Definitely a softening in ute prices. AU3 cab/chassis (Tickford VCT transplant with auto) up the road, asking $500. It’s a right mutt, but would have been pegged at $12-1500 three months ago.

[Polyal]

I think things have settled a bit, still stick to the idea that prices will get him Q2 next year.

[anobserver]

Au to Bf Falcon sedan prices have definitely softened as we move into the Christmas season.

The number of carsales interest notifications i receive has dropped right off. And, theres been a re-emergence of cars meeting my search criteria, under 10k in price and under 100,000 kms.

Ute prices are still high. And low mileage rtvs have all but disappeared.

[Poetic Justice]

I've got a watch notification on Subaru WRXs on carsales and boy are some of the prices interesting - especially when noting some of the distance travelled numbers and overall conditions!

Then there's the top line rare WRXs pushing 6 figures now!

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Poetic Justice

I've got a watch notification on Subaru WRXs on carsales and boy are some of the prices interesting - especially when noting some of the distance travelled numbers and overall conditions!

Then there's the top line rare WRXs pushing 6 figures now!

Yeah we should have gotten into the Jap/Fast and Furious cars 5 years ago, you would be laugh.

FD RX7 and S2000, make sure you are sitting down.

They both woudlnt have pushed $30k 12-24 months ago, particularly the S2000.

[davenl5l]

One of the stepsons cars is a evo 7 gone up over 10g in 3 months his bf 2.5 xr8 manual has gone up 5g his ba xr6 manual ute is about the same as he paid 5.5g