Tough Times Ahead

[superyob]

Originally Posted by EF_6

Oh o.k....And what about the poor young mechanic i just did two weeks with at HSV in Melbourne.....He did four year apprenticeship at Kmart Auto and was on 18 per hr qualified.....What a fukin joke....Mechanics trade is screwed!

Are you sure? That's only just above the minimum wage isn't it???

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

The US Economy is actually recovering. Long way to go yet, but is on the up.

It is? Ask all those people still receiving foods stamps in the US if their economy has improved.

http://www.trivisonno.com/food-stamps-charts

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

It is? Ask all those people still receiving foods stamps in the US if their economy has improved.

http://www.trivisonno.com/food-stamps-charts

Two Australia's are dependant on a direct food handout from the government. How the hell is that sustainable...

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by EF_6

Oh o.k....And what about the poor young mechanic i just did two weeks with at HSV in Melbourne.....He did four year apprenticeship at Kmart Auto and was on 18 per hr qualified.....What a fukin joke....Mechanics trade is screwed!

Yep same thing at the Honda dealership I was working at in 2010, every mechanic was under $20/hour small business was even worse, I'd say at least 90% of my class in 2010 was planning to leave the trade when they were qualified, if you made it through.

Auto trades aren't worth it unless you're heavy vehicles/earth moving or an auto electrician with A/C and heavy vehicle/earth moving experience.

[Windsor220]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Yep same thing at the Honda dealership I was working at in 2010, every mechanic was under $20/hour small business was even worse, I'd say at least 90% of my class in 2010 was planning to leave the trade when they were qualified, if you made it through.

Auto trades aren't worth it unless you're heavy vehicles/earth moving or an auto electrician with A/C and heavy vehicle/earth moving experience.

Probably different over here. Would struggle to find anyone under $25 an hour with some guys up to around $35. When you factor in bonuses too its not that bad.

[irish2]

Originally Posted by b0son

And in many more, it isn't, but we're expected to pay more (not just more, but substantially more) simply because its made here.

Got some examples mate?

As I said look through the shops. Almost all shampoo is imported. A lowly $2.98 bottle of totally organic shampoo made in Aus is the cheapest thing going (natures organics). Thai stuff is $10 or more. Another great example is seeing Yankee citrus alongside Aussie stuff. The Yank stuff looks anaemic, small, and is often priced higher, even with all the subsidies that are handed out to their farmers.

[Trump]

I'm going to make an observation first then pose a question.

To me it seems as though that there is a concerted effort to significantly lower the standard of living in the US, Australia and Europe to closer match that of China and India.

My question then is: is it possible to have the entire world sustainably living at our current standard of living or is the world forever doomed to be divided into the haves and have nots?

[Auslandau]

Well its been 10 years since I have owned a business and 30 years of paying off a mortgage. Been a hard slog on and off over the years but this year was a hard one, mainly because of uncertainty with a drawn out election and of course other factors. I will put my bit forward as far as I see things in my little world.

Property markets isnt as crap as people make out. For absolutely years the media report that the bubble will pop and for the same amount of time people have said the same to me in person and through AFF. One day it will slow. Did 12 months ago to the delight of many who could now shout "Told you so .... "

Market goes up, market goes down. Housing prices in Aust are geared extremely differently to those in the US and a crash to the same degree or cause is no where near imminent. Negativity breeds anxiety and some just love this. Don't know why, probably so they can be the ones who one day can say "Told you so ...... " in 50 years time.

Buy a house if you can afford it for sure! Don't wait till tomorrow or you will be waiting for ever. Go without a few luxuries but I cannot understand, why wait? You only get one go at it ....... Be sitting in the rocking chair at 80 thinking about the things you should have done. If you can, do it! No need to listen to the dooms dayers. Be cautious, take advice, but in the end, if you can, just do it.

I am in the kitchen industry and have been in it for tooooo long. Working for others and now for myself. I have seen some massive changes and there are reasons that companies come and go in my industry which is relevant to other business's as well. BUT it is a cycle and has been for ever. It is also about changing the ways you do things and keeping on top of trends. Not being afraid to change direction either expanding or contracting. Being aware of what is happening in the industry and believing in what you are doing. Listen to others but dont be afraid to have your own point of view. And not just listening to social and general media doomsayers but questioning what they are saying and then making informed decisions based on ALL information.

Biggest change? Large 'one stop' shops. The good old and everyones favorite, Bunnings. Ikea and Masters have made a massive impact in the kitchen industry. Along with others that are popping up, they sell cheap (in quality), inferior, Chinese made rubbish that people buy thinking they are getting a bargain because they dont do their homework. I find it hard to comprehend and has been the demise of a hell of a lot of Cabinet Makers. They aren't the cheapest, the quality is shocking, their service is bad (in relation to the industry) they are fully imported .... etc .... so why? Because of branding, position, perception of a 'good' price. In the end ...... generally people do not care where it comes from, questionable quality etc. It is about saving that 3% short term. Its a bit of a "That'll do" attitude. People say they would only buy Australian, but not in reality.

Imports have always been around but it has got to the stage where it is so main stream that it is accepted. Bad quality is more accepted .... even when it is a similar price to Oz made. There is a real apathy on finding out where products are made. Ikea is Made in China but they push the 'Designed in Sweden" to the extreme.

As mentioned though ..... it is a cycle and has always been. When things go quiet, people shut up shop for various reasons. Eventually, and always has, when things pick up, people see that there is an opening for their services. Shops re open and etc.

Also, as someone mentioned, Panel beaters may not be required like they were 15 years ago ..... but other industries open as technology changes.

Car manufacturing will be retired here in Oz which is devastating but Ford have done it the right way. Allowing the workers a 3 odd year notice of intention. What I am worried about is how Holden are going to plan their shut down. Less notice = more problems.

Also, Australian workers, despite what people say, most are very hard working, expect decent pay, but at the same time, put the hours in. Those that don't are left behind in the work force. No one will get rid of someone because they are making them money.

Going to have some ups and downs over the next 20 - 50 years. No one really knows where we will be at the end ..... but one thing is guaranteed, and that there is an end to everyone so do what you can now to enjoy your life without sitting on your hands and missing out on what there is on offer. Also, there will always be the have's and have nots. There is no way to combat this and is the way the world works. Just do your damndest to be on the side of 'haves' and don't think anyone owes you or you get no where.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Spammy

Show me real proof that house prices are going to fall.

I've just bought a couple of properties interstate (in a state without a mining boom)

For half of what they were advertised in 2010 for...

I am talking prime waterfront properties.

Nice to be cashed up at the moment.

[stevz]

Taking the property market for granted is the biggest mistake one can make.

Each to their own, but one thing is for certain - the past is not a guarantee for the future.

[roberts]

purchasing the house is the easy part, its maintaining constant employment for 30 years is where it goes wrong.

[Auslandau]

Originally Posted by stevz

Taking the property market for granted is the biggest mistake one can make.

Each to their own, but one thing is for certain - the past is not a guarantee for the future.

But it is an indication. No one can say for certain where the market will be in 3,5 or 20 years time but one things is for sure. The market goes up and goes down and back up again. To say point blank that there will be a property market down turn is the same as saying the sun will come up and go down again. But it will always go back up. Even using the US as an example, the indication that in many areas the market has recovered a bit.

The way they set loans over there is not the way it is done here. You could get a loan and walk out on your obligation. You cannot do that here. Loans were 100% based over there. They are not here. Govco controls the land release keeping prices reasonably level. There are other factors as we'll including an increase in population. Also foreign investment is property is left to its own divises (good or bad). There is a lot to change before things go to the extremes that your predicting. Supply and demand keeps things under control. Where prices went silly was the demand totally outstripped supply. There was a dip over the past. 24 months (slight at best in most areas anyway and more in some) but things are back on track again. Things are supposed to be quiet at the moment but clearance rates are over 70% for auctions for the past month

It is not ignoring the market trends but watching and taking notice what has always happened in the past. Not just sprouting "the sky is falling"

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Auslandau

Going to have some ups and downs over the next 20 - 50 years. No one really knows where we will be at the end ..... but one thing is guaranteed, and that there is an end to everyone so do what you can now to enjoy your life without sitting on your hands and missing out on what there is on offer. Also, there will always be the have's and have nots. There is no way to combat this and is the way the world works. Just do your damndest to be on the side of 'haves' and don't think anyone owes you or you get no where.

There is a way to combat that, and it involves a paradigm shift in how people see the world, their place in it and whether their actions, choices and desires will hurt or cause loss to anyone else or the environment. The status quo as it is, is very much a "its all about me and screw everyone else" one. Not only that, when that same selfish attitude is institutionalised in every aspect of life, it becomes very hard to make any real progress.

[Gadgetman]

Originally Posted by EF_6

Oh o.k...Well why the hell are they talking about introducing 'negative interest rates' via The Federal reserve bank or in other words a very desperate move to get people lending again???

I said its on the up. Not recovered. Have a read

http://http://money.howstuffworks.com/10-signs-the-economy-is-improving.htm#page=0

[Gadgetman]

Originally Posted by stevz

Taking the property market for granted is the biggest mistake one can make.

Each to their own, but one thing is for certain - the past is not a guarantee for the future.

Its no guarantee but I reckon it gives you a damn good indication. I am just spewing I didn't enter the property market when I was born.

[Gadgetman]

At the end of the day, we are always gonna hear sad stories. We sit here going "economy must be stuffed cause of how bad Ford & Holden sales are going amongst a whole lot of other things. Reality is the auto industry as an example is still going to perform at near a million cars this year with makes such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Ferrari, Bentley amongst most premium brands about to achieve record breaking sales figures. Whenever I go out to eat or a night out on the ****, you struggle to get a park cause there are plenty of people out there spending heaps. like I said before. Just cause there are a few sad stories don't mean its a false economy or a bubble is gonna stop.

[Spammy]

Originally Posted by stevz

The only people I see defending/talking up the property market are those with a vested interest - Banks.... Real estate agents.... Developers..... Investors..... That one-eyebrowed propaganda machine from the REIV.

Everyone else can see that it is clearly unsustainable and only a matter of time. There is no denying that property has had a good run with luck and circumstances on its side, but with the global economy in dire straits, the luck is running out fast and there will be nothing left to prop up the ponzi scheme.

The main group of people who claim property prices are over inflated are those who can't and never will be able to afford to buy a house. Their affordbility problem is linked to their lack of income and /or savings...not the price of a house.

Everybody else gets on with life, buys a house and pays off their mortgage.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Spammy

The main group of people who claim property prices are over inflated are those who can't and never will be able to afford to buy a house. Their affordbility problem is linked to their lack of income and /or savings...not the price of a house.

Everybody else gets on with life, buys a house and pays off their mortgage.

It doesn't bother me, my house is just about paid off, but younger generations even on good incomes are struggling to buy a home. The fact that the level of fhb's has never been lower is a testament to that.

As I said earlier, why should people be denied the basic need of housing so some greedy investor can line his/her pockets?

[BHDOGS]

Originally Posted by Spammy

The main group of people who claim property prices are over inflated are those who can't and never will be able to afford to buy a house. Their affordbility problem is linked to their lack of income and /or savings...not the price of a house.

Everybody else gets on with life, buys a house and pays off their mortgage.

Yup those lazy bums watching there disabled kids or work cover injured workers it's there own fault they have no savings or income they can live on the pension seriously to many people in this country have no idea how the other half live long as they can afford something other people should to right no excuses it's there own fault wrong and half the reason this country's going to ****

[Dash_XR]

I'm sure there is more of what he is talking about then what you are talking about. More, "i'd rather rent a mansion then buy a house" mentality.

[Spinner77]

Here is a quote from an American economic research company (variantperception.com_, under the amusing title "Morbidly Obese Australian Banks:

Astonishingly, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is the tenth largest bank in the world, despite Australia having a far smaller population than China, the US and the UK – the other countries who have banks in the top 10. Three of Australia’s four main banks appear in the global top 20.

Australian banks are highly geared to a domestic housing bubble and have built up some of the highest loan-to-deposit ratios in Asia and the developed world.

Draw your own conclusions.

[Spammy]

Originally Posted by BHDOGS

Yup those lazy bums watching there disabled kids or work cover injured workers it's there own fault they have no savings or income they can live on the pension seriously to many people in this country have no idea how the other half live long as they can afford something other people should to right no excuses it's there own fault wrong and half the reason this country's going to ****

There is always going to be a group, who no fault of their own, can't afford a house due to disabilty etc. That is why we have public housing, pensions etc. And I'm not saying this group recieve the right amount of help/benefits etc. It is sad but inescapable.

However, you can't force house prices lower just because there is some guy out there who can't manage his own finances and then thinks he is due a house.

How do you explain this to the family who have worked hard, saved and built a nest egg? "Hey Mr and Mrs Carefull saver, your neighbour has blown all his cash on project cars, slow horses and winnie reds so we are lowering all house prices in your area by 50% so Mr Careless can have a roof over his head."

As for investors buying houses -- without them there would be far fewer rental properties and you know govt can't run public housing effiencently to cater for the needs as they are ...try dumping 500,000 extra familes into the system.

[stevz]

It needs to stop somewhere because the way it is going, housing will only be available to the rich and elite.

[superyob]

Originally Posted by Loud_Noises

There is a way to combat that, and it involves a paradigm shift in how people see the world, their place in it and whether their actions, choices and desires will hurt or cause loss to anyone else or the environment. The status quo as it is, is very much a "its all about me and screw everyone else" one. Not only that, when that same selfish attitude is institutionalised in every aspect of life, it becomes very hard to make any real progress.

Absolutely 100% spot on...

[Trump]

Now this:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/mi...120-2xv3y.html

[rog xc]

Originally Posted by stevz

It needs to stop somewhere because the way it is going, housing will only be available to the rich and elite.

I kept thinking that.. I bought the most expensive "cheap" house I could afford. If there is a bust, the top end will try to sell, then buy back in cheaper, & onflowing down to the bottom.. Our mortgage will be $9 a week more than what we were paying in rent.. We managed to save a deposit whilst renting, so the money we were banking can go towards the mortgage as well.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

At the end of the day, we are always gonna hear sad stories. We sit here going "economy must be stuffed cause of how bad Ford & Holden sales are going amongst a whole lot of other things. Reality is the auto industry as an example is still going to perform at near a million cars this year with makes such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Ferrari, Bentley amongst most premium brands about to achieve record breaking sales figures.

With easy finance being given out to anyone who can sign their name on the dotted line these days, the majority of these vehicle sales are fuelled by debt, debt and more debt, so I don't think they can used to accurately gauge the health of the economy.

I remember when the gfc hit in 2008, Pickles Auctions had sheds full of repossessed prestige cars up for auction. I can see this happening again.

[Auslandau]

Originally Posted by Loud_Noises

There is a way to combat that, and it involves a paradigm shift in how people see the world, their place in it and whether their actions, choices and desires will hurt or cause loss to anyone else or the environment. The status quo as it is, is very much a "its all about me and screw everyone else" one. Not only that, when that same selfish attitude is institutionalised in every aspect of life, it becomes very hard to make any real progress.

But this has been the way since day dot. (rightly or wrongly) It fits in with the "No war & peace on earth" mantra. It wont change unfortunately. What it boils down to is it will always be about the individual. In a way that isnt a bad thing. Some need to think more of themselves and set them up accordingly rather than worrying about what the bloke next doors is doing?

Also, while debt is accessible, it is not as easy as one would think to get. This is where the banks have been successful in keeping things in tow. Credit card distribution is another thing but I have loans for various larger things and you do need to go through hoops to get them.

[Gadgetman]

AUSTRALIA’S top-selling car-maker
Toyota has forecast a new all-time total
market sales record for 2013, with
resurgent private sales doing all the
heavy lifting.
The Japanese company projects this
year’s figure will top the 2012 record
of 1,112,032 registrations by about
20,000 units, despite “significant belttightening”
in the government sector
and a notable impact on business
confidence stemming from proposed
fringe benefits tax (FBT) changes.

Yup.. I remember someone in the trade telling me 5 years ago that the Australian market cant sustain a million plus cars! Another guru I guess

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Auslandau

But this has been the way since day dot. (rightly or wrongly) It fits in with the "No war & peace on earth" mantra. It wont change unfortunately. What it boils down to is it will always be about the individual. In a way that isnt a bad thing. Some need to think more of themselves and set them up accordingly rather than worrying about what the bloke next doors is doing?

Also, while debt is accessible, it is not as easy as one would think to get. This is where the banks have been successful in keeping things in tow. Credit card distribution is another thing but I have loans for various larger things and you do need to go through hoops to get them.

Your statement is accurate Auslandau. It is also why I think humanity needs to consciously evolve beyond it and consign to the history books the ideas and notions of selfishness, greed envy and vanity. We're doomed as a species should we not evolve as such.