Covid 19 -

[arm79]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I see our news sites have stopped reporting on covid numbers altogether. Pandemic ended?

I noticed on various sites today stories about the untold horrors this flu season will bring. Coming out of the pandemic, restrictions and lockdowns will mean people are naive with lower resistance. Will the vaccine hesitant continue to avoid vaccines???

That's where the focus has moved. Some new horror story to scare the kids.

That and the Russia/Ukraine thing. Russia has been expected to invade within the next hour for almost a week now. It must be draining on these "journalists" having to drag out the same concept with new ideas daily.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by arm79

Some new horror story to scare the kids.

Kinda have to agree. There was an article a day or two ago now trying to drum up fear about a new omicron variant doing the rounds in Denmark. But you look at the numbers and they dont appear any worse than regular omicron, so must have been a slow news day.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 22nd 2022.

24,719 new cases for Australia and 37 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 2,845 cases (a new record) and 3 deaths for a CMR of 0.155%.

The UK recorded 40,877 cases and 205 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.860%.

92,242 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,962 deaths sees CMR at 1.199%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 427M;
Europe passes 152M cases;
Asia passes 113M cases;

New Zealand (2,485);
Brunei (3,251); and
Vietnam (55,879)

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while the UK and Bosnia drop below.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 8,271 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0646 from 1.0645) while the actual line falls further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,715 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0039 (from 1.0053) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



WA (645) set a new daily record on 23/2 – almost triple the previous high.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 23rd 2022.

26,998 new cases for Australia and 59 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 3,183 cases (a new record) and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.142%.

The UK recorded 39,234 cases and 164 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.859%.

75,465 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,107 deaths sees CMR at 1.201%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 429M;
Europe passes 153M cases;
Germany passes 14M cases;
Australia passes 5,000 deaths;

New Zealand (3,183);
Brunei (3,285);
Hong Kong (8,674);
Vietnam (60,085); and
South Korea (171,448)

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Belgium drops below.

[CJR09]

Hey Russ,

Totally appreciate what you are doing here - what would be the chances of adding NZ to your graph populations? Not sure if you have had them going concurrently but now that its picking up here in NZ would be a good visualizer - not really anything around similar to what you are doing?

Totally understand if that may be a stretch - can imagine the time involved...

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by b0son

Kinda have to agree. There was an article a day or two ago now trying to drum up fear about a new omicron variant doing the rounds in Denmark. But you look at the numbers and they dont appear any worse than regular omicron, so must have been a slow news day.

Scary.
I heard mosquito borne virus have increased in NSW lately. The media didn’t do their usual scaremongering as much as I thought they would.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,583 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0237 from 1.0646) while the actual line falls further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,580 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9870 (from 1.0039) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 24/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



We’ve added New Zealand now that things have ramped up there. Data goes back to January 15th and the 6,128 cases yesterday was a new record high and the actual line looks like Australia did some weeks back.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 24th 2022.

24,834 new cases for Australia and 40 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 6,128 cases (a new record) and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.123%.

The UK recorded 38,481 cases and 125 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.858%.

88,120 new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,763 deaths sees CMR at 1.204%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 431M;
Asia passes 114M cases;
Iran passes 7M cases;
Vietnam passes 3M cases;

New Zealand (6,128);
Brunei (3,721);
Hong Kong (8,798);
Thailand (23.557) – the previous high (23,418) on 13/8/21;
Malaysia (32,070); and
Vietnam (69,128)

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Well, I'm on the covid iso roller coaster once again. My daughter had a bit of a sore throat this morning, and tested positive on two RATs. Why two? Because the first was so faint we weren't sure if she was imagining it or not. So, did a second to see if it was any more obvious. second result was the same as the first: virtually unintelligible.

Came home form work straight away, as my daughter is with me this week and next, and therefore I am a close contact. As I came into town, I noticed the pop-up testing station was open, with no one there waiting to be tested. So, given both results were very weak, decided to get both of us PCR tested. This clinic apparently has fast turn around times, so I'm hoping we have test results back by tomoz.

In the meantime, we're both isolating, to be on the safe side.

[MITCHAY]

I have read before always treat a faint positive RAT as being positive and get a PCR. You have done the right thing.

I'm surprised about the Kiwi cases being 12k today. Where the **** did that come from? I'm out of the loop a bit because last I knew it wasn't that much and they had restrictions where as we had decided to let it rip.

In other news the mask mandate has been lifted in the ACT tonight for most settings and I can go back to the office next week

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I have read before always treat a faint positive RAT as being positive and get a PCR. You have done the right thing.

I'm surprised about the Kiwi cases being 12k today. Where the **** did that come from? I'm out of the loop a bit because last I knew it wasn't that much and they had restrictions where as we had decided to let it rip.

In other news the mask mandate has been lifted in the ACT tonight for most settings and I can go back to the office next week

We've been letting it rip for a few weeks now. Still have mandates in place in some industries, but for the most part, restrictions have been lifted.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

In other news the mask mandate has been lifted in the ACT tonight for most settings and I can go back to the office next week

We had an email come out yesterday, "inviting" us to go back to the office. I say "invite" because, apparently, we are not allowed to mandate people going back. Offices in Victoria are the only ones that need to show proof of vax before being allowed to return too. I was surprised WA wasn't on that list!

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I have read before always treat a faint positive RAT as being positive and get a PCR. You have done the right thing.

In Vic, a positive RAT result is considered a probable case and there's no need for a pcr test. Given the very weak result, I considered a pcr test a better option, and the poor nurses at the testing site appreciated the company, I think.

Anyway, we got our pcr results back over night, and both of us are negative. So glad, as I was going to go insane looking after the daughter whilst she was isolating.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,017 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9887 from 1.0237) while the actual line falls further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,874 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9765 (from 0.9870) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



WA (1,043) set a new daily record on 25/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that all trend lines have been amended to 5th order polynomials except New Zealand.



We’ve added New Zealand now that things have ramped up there. Data goes back to January 15th and the 12,024 cases yesterday was a new record high and the actual line looks like Australia did some weeks back.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 25th 2022.

25,261 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 12,024 cases (a new record) and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.097%.

The UK recorded 31,601 cases and 120 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.857%.

83,196 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,565 deaths sees CMR at 1.206%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 433M;
Global deaths pass 5.9M, the last 50k in 5 days;
Europe passes 154M cases;
South America passes 54M cases;
Russia passes 16M cases;
Moldova passes 500k cases;

New Zealand (12,024);
Hong Kong (10,010);
Thailand (24.932); and
Vietnam (78,795)

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Serbia, Iran, Venezuela and Malta drop below.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Offices in Victoria are the only ones that need to show proof of vax before being allowed to return too. I was surprised WA wasn't on that list!

Sister tells me alot of Perth businesses had their own self imposed proof of vax requirements. She had to provide her vax status to the workplace before being allowed to enter.

Site rules are that visitors have to be fully vaccinated or up to date to gain entry.

At the moment her work has sent as many people possible to work from home and have a very slim skeleton staff left on site.

They and the state are preparing to face down the oncoming disaster of 463,932 cases over the next few months.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 2,012,097 cases in the period to 10/2 and 2,066 deaths between 11-25/2 for a CMR of 0.103% which is a third that of the previous period - 0.315% and closer to what it had been however there was a major adjustment to case numbers (+900k) that impacts the data.

Thus, in the 210 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 12,680,065 cases and 31,641 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.250% which is below the 0.277% at day 195. That’s 24.38% of the adult population who have been infected in that time!

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.





On an annualised basis, that’s 23.73M cases and about 60k (at the average CMR) deaths and just over half of the adult population would get COVID in the year.

[CJR09]

Thanks for adding NZ Russell, appreciated ����

[SJG351]

Originally Posted by russellw

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 2,012,097 cases in the period to 10/2 and 2,066 deaths between 11-25/2 for a CMR of 0.103% which is a third that of the previous period - 0.315% and closer to what it had been however there was a major adjustment to case numbers (+900k) that impacts the data.

Thus, in the 210 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 12,680,065 cases and 31,641 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.250% which is below the 0.277% at day 195. That’s 24.38% of the adult population who have been infected in that time!

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.


image


On an annualised basis, that’s 23.73M cases and about 60k (at the average CMR) deaths and just over half of the adult population would get COVID in the year.

Hi Russ, I see this subject has your attention so i thought i would ask where are we at with this conversation, are we vaxers, antivaxers or something else? Ivermectin believer right here
Cheers,
Steve.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,014 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9788 from 0.9887) while the actual line falls further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,052 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9669 (from 0.9765) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



WA (1,105) set a new daily record on 26/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that all trend lines have been amended to 5th order polynomials except New Zealand.



We’ve added New Zealand now that things have ramped up there. Data goes back to January 15th and the 13,265 cases yesterday was a new record high and the actual line looks like Australia did some weeks back although it is starting to level off a bit.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 26th 2022.

22,136 new cases for Australia and 35 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 13,625 cases (a new record) and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.079%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.857%.

76,826 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,952 deaths sees CMR at 1.207%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 434M;
Europe passes 155M cases;
Asia passes 115M cases;
Chile passes 3M cases;

Brunei (3,969);
New Zealand (13,625);
Hong Kong (17,053); and
Thailand (25.615)

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Croatia, North Macedonia, Palestine and Kuwait drop below.

[russellw]

Global 27/2/22 (figures up to 26/2/22)
During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.372% compared to 1.424% in the previous period and 2.325% a year ago today.

Case number have tapered off significantly with 24.1M in this period compared to 38.2M in the previous period with 135,680 deaths in the last 14 days for a higher CMR of 0.562% on an unadjusted basis. That's only 2.3% more deaths than the previous period and the adjusted CMR based on the previous period case numbers is 0.395% but that's far from an exact science.

Note that 'adjusted' CMR uses the case numbers from between 16 and 30 days ago and the mortalities from the last 14 days

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 5.6% but the variance in the number of deaths only 2.3% so that's a positive sign.

Countries (with <100k cases) that were above 10% growth rate are headed by South Korea (+54.3%); Singapore (+34.0%);Iceland (+30.3%); Vietnam (+22.8%); Japan (+21.8%); Latvia (+20.7%);Austria (+14.7%); Norway (+16.4%); Germany & Denmark (+16.1%);Estonia (+14.7%);Slovakia (+14.4%); Chile (+14.3%); Russia (+13.8%); Indonesia (+13.5%); Réunion (+12.1%); Malaysia (+11.1%); Finland (+10.6%);Jordan & Martinique (+10.3%) plusBahrain, Netherlands & Georgia (+10.0%);.

Australia wasn’t far off with 9.3% and although case numbers are below the 100k threshold (this week anyway) both New Zealand (+72.2%) and Hong Kong (+78.6%) had big gains.

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with only Japan (+12.8%), Réunion (+11.7%), South Korea (+10.8%), Iceland (+11.5%), Australia (+11.4%), Denmark (+11.0%) and Singapore (+10.6%) having double digit growth amongst countries with >100k cases. Worth noting that along with the big increase in cases, deaths are also up by 56.5% in Hong Kong and it will pass the 100k threshold tomorrow.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by SJG351

Ivermectin believer right here

Any news on how Clive is doing? Had covid symptoms, apparently tested negative, but was rush to hospital last I heard. He is unvaxxed, fair to say probably in the "at risk" group. Has been a fan of Ivermectin. Wonder if he'll miraculously recover then come out and say he took all these special pills.

[SJG351]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Any news on how Clive is doing? Had covid symptoms, apparently tested negative, but was rush to hospital last I heard. He is unvaxxed, fair to say probably in the "at risk" group. Has been a fan of Ivermectin. Wonder if he'll miraculously recover then come out and say he took all these special pills.

Even the at risk people that follow the recommended early treatment protocols don't get rushed to hospital, either he didn't follow protocols or its something else. What i would be worried about if i were him is whether i would get good treatment in hospital after being outspoken about them

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by SJG351

Even the at risk people that follow the recommended early treatment protocols don't get rushed to hospital, either he didn't follow protocols or its something else. What i would be worried about if i were him is whether i would get good treatment in hospital after being outspoken about them

Damn, he is not good. Just been reported he has pneumonia and covid 19.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Damn, he is not good. Just been reported he has pneumonia and covid 19.

Hope he gets well soon.

His party is getting my vote.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 27th 2022.

18,474 new cases for Australia and 28 deaths so the CMR is 0.162%.

NZ recorded 15,016 cases (a new record) and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.065%.

The UK didn’t report again yesterday for a CMR of 0.857%.

27,986 new cases in the USA yesterday and 730 deaths sees CMR at 1.208%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 435M;
Yesterday was the first day under 1M global cases this year although a lot of countries didn’t report;
Asia passes 116M cases;
Turkey passes 14M cases;

Only -
New Zealand (15,016);

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 5,856 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9837 from 0.9788) while the actual line falls further below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,852 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9924 (from 0.9669) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 27/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that all trend lines have been amended to 5th order polynomials except New Zealand.



We’ve added New Zealand now that things have ramped up there. Data goes back to January 15th and the 15,016 cases yesterday was a new record high and the actual line looks like Australia did some weeks back although it is starting to level off a bit.

[SJG351]

Originally Posted by zilo

Hope he gets well soon.

His party is getting my vote.

Just so you are aware, Mr Kelly voted his approval to bring non Australian forces in on that bill recently, they were the ones assaulting Australian freedom protesters