Covid 19 -

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by wodahs

I have ! but it's been Russell's posts here , who is now the main only poster now

I think most of us have come to terms with it all and moving on.......
Been a trying couple of years and people are over it.
The varying rule changes, the illogical, the Press in for their pound, I can't explain clearly how deflated people would be over all the BS that we've gone through.
Most are triple vaxxed, look after yourselves and fam and be careful and consider others.
I for one am glad trying to get on with life that I'm sure the rest of us are.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 6th 2022.

19,519 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 0.161%.

NZ recorded 15,205 cases and 2 deaths for a CMR of 0.029%.

The UK didn’t report (again) for a CMR of 0.847%.

16,213 new cases in the USA yesterday and 328 deaths sees CMR at 1.216%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 446M;
South America drops below the 90th percentile over the 10-day period;
Europe passes 160M cases;
Italy passes 13M cases;

Only -
Vietnam (142,136) – the 8th consecutive day

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Romania and Mauritania drop below.

[russellw]

I think it is correct to say that most of the world is 'getting on with it' in one way or another. Most of Europe is over the explosion of Omicron cases that saw totals for the continent in excess of 1.5M cases per day and the 7-day average is now below the 90th percentile.

Some Asian countries (notably Vietnam & South Korea) are still getting very high case numbers and the continent 7-day average is still more than 100k cases above the 90th percentile so there are still some gains to be made there.

Somewhat ironically, the UK has simpler entry requirements for an Australian visitor than we have for a returning traveller.

They only require you to be fully vaccinated and complete a passenger locator form within 72 hours of arrival but have dropped any requirement for pre-departure or post-arrival testing and there are no quarantine rules. Despite some minor problems with the multi-purpose form, it is a simple process.

Coming back requires a pre-departure negative test and digital passenger declaration within 72 hours of departure plus quarantine on arrival until a negative test result is obtained (at least for VIC).

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 6th 2022.

19,519 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 0.161%.

NZ recorded 15,205 cases and 2 deaths for a CMR of 0.029%.

The UK didn’t report (again) for a CMR of 0.847%.

16,213 new cases in the USA yesterday and 328 deaths sees CMR at 1.216%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 446M;
South America drops below the 90th percentile over the 10-day period;
Europe passes 160M cases;
Italy passes 13M cases;

Only -
Vietnam (142,136) – the 8th consecutive day

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Romania and Mauritania drop below.

It is interesting seeing the CMR in the US being so high compared to ours. Was talking at work a workmate who was saying it doesn't make sense as the US has "nearly" as high a 2 shot vaccination rate as us. Nearly is 65 to 95%....... he still said it was close. I did my best to explain the important number is not how many are vaccinated, it is how many are not. We have about 5% without 2 doses, they have 35%.

They have 7 times more NOT double shot vaccinated.

Funnily enough if you multiply our CMR of .161 by 7 you nearly end up with exactly the US CMR ......

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,018 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0851 (from 1.0333) while the actual line rises above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,043 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0270 (from 0.9915) while the actual line rises below the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 7/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the 17,552 cases yesterday moves the actual line up a bit but it remains below the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 7th 2022.

21,826 new cases for Australia and 34 deaths so the CMR is 0.161%.

NZ recorded 17,552 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.027%.

The UK didn’t report (again) for a CMR of 0.847%.

23,535 new cases in the USA yesterday and 715 deaths sees CMR at 1.216%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 447M;
Asia passes 121M cases;
Russia passes 17M cases;

Only –

Iceland (6,222); and
Vietnam (147,358) – the 9th consecutive day

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Myanmar and Costa Rica drop below.

[T3rminator]

Am hearing that HK is fast becoming out of control. A large part of their elderly population are very hesitant on vaccines. Gov are having to build make shift hospitals as they have run out of beds. The locals are also reluctant to receive medical personnel assistance from the mainland, for fear that their jobs will be taken in the longer term.

HK is extremely densely populated, its hard to see them reversing the trend.

[russellw]

HK is a basket case at the moment. They went from almost no cases a day to over 1k/day at the start of February; 5k/day by mid February and every day since 26th of February has been over 10k/day and the last week has seen a total of 257k cases!

[FTE217]

Amazing isn't it, one stage sometime ago it was totally under control.
Over populated, high denisity living, its running rampant now.
Very sad for low income people and the aged.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/b...ong-covid.html

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,179 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1006 (from 1.0851) while the actual line remains slightly above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,081 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0416 (from 1.0270) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.




WA (2,847) set a new daily record on 8/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the 23,936 cases yesterday moves the actual line up above the predictive trend.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 28,064 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 341 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 19,737 more and Queensland 1,876 less.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 8th 2022.

43,175 new cases for Australia and 16 deaths so the CMR is 0.159%.

NZ recorded 23,936 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.025%.

The UK recorded 187,833 cases and 351 deaths over a 4 day period for a CMR of 0.841%.

45,160 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,832 deaths sees CMR at 1.218%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 449M;
Europe passes 161M cases;
Asia passes 122M cases;
The USA passes 81M cases;
Germany passes 16M cases;

Only –

Vietnam (162,435) – the 10th consecutive day

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

The UK moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Spain and Ukraine drop below.

[ford71V8]

Every day I read these numbers - USA hits 1,xxx pretty much everyday so wondered what that total is now.
951K, 961K and 987K depending on which website you choose (quite a variation too)

Will be reaching the 1 million death mark within the 1st week of April if they keep losing people at that rate.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 16,288 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.129 (from 1.1006) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,779 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0356 (from 1.0416) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



WA (3,594) set a new daily record on 9/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Every day I read these numbers - USA hits 1,xxx pretty much everyday so wondered what that total is now.
951K, 961K and 987K depending on which website you choose (quite a variation too)

Will be reaching the 1 million death mark within the 1st week of April if they keep losing people at that rate.

The figures I use put it at 988,555 this morning but there are timing differences in when the various reporting is lodged that make it difficult. As far as I am concerned, they'll probably pass the 1M mark in 12 days or so.

[russellw]

One of the things I haven't looked at recently, is the variation in CMR between the States.

We know that for whole of pandemic, Victoria has the worst CMR (0.232%) thanks to the aged care debacle with WA the best (0.040%), then Tasmania (0.047%); ACT (0.062%); NT (0.069%); Queensland (0.101%); SA (0.131%) and NSW (0.136%). Put another way you were 3x more likely to die in NSW if you got infected than in WA.

Anyway, the CMR's for this year make interesting reading.

WA is still the best (0.010%) and well below the whole pandemic rate, followed by:
Tasmania (0.024%) and ACT (0.037%) about half the whole pandemic rate;
NT (0.067%) and barely changed;
Queensland (0.102%) - actually a bit above the whole of pandemic rate;
NSW (0.104%) and improved;
Victoria (0.115%) and no longer the worst; and
SA (0.136%) - somewhat higher and now the worst rate.

The adjusted CMR does change the order a little:

Tas 0.031%
ACT 0.046%
NT 0.080%;
WA 0.089%;
Qld 0.115%;
NSW 0.118%;
Vic 0.127%; and
SA 0.165%.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 9th 2022.

33,482 new cases for Australia and 34 deaths so the CMR is 0.159%.

NZ recorded 22,495 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.023%.

The UK recorded 66,870 cases and 123 deaths for a CMR of 0.839%.

41,468 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,537 deaths sees CMR at 1.219%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 451M;
Europe passes 162M cases;
Oceania passes 4M cases;
South Korea passes 5M cases;

Austria (47,795);
Vietnam (265,143) – the 11th consecutive day + more than 100k above yesterday; and
South Korea (342,427)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[T3rminator]

Seems to have been a big jump in number of cases in NSW in the last few days, coinciding with the floods? People unable to practice covid safe?

The ratio of hospitilisations between Vic and NSW is also widening compared to the peak of Omnicron.

[zilo]

Just noticed this thread has over 2 million views.

[MITCHAY]

I have been back in the office for almost the last two weeks (7/9). Not a lot of people but with the way petrol is going even less incentive to be there
I still mask up when going in and out the office and when at the shops. It's not a big deal for me.

I was talking to a bloke who caught the rona. He is super fit and healthy who runs or rides ~20km+ to work and it floored him for most of a week. Double jabbed and was due for the booster.

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Seems to have been a big jump in number of cases in NSW in the last few days, coinciding with the floods? People unable to practice covid safe?

The ratio of hospitilisations between Vic and NSW is also widening compared to the peak of Omnicron.

A new sub variant of Omnicron is suspected to be behind the rise in NSW.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 14,034 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0615 (from 1.1269) while the actual line is about level with the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,811 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0056 (from 1.0356) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.




WA (4,535) set a new daily record on 10/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend.




.. and yes, the BA.2 variant of Omicron is considered to be the cause of case numbers starting to rise again.

[wodahs]

I want to be the first to say
how are you BA2 , good thank you BA1 how are you
followed by singing
ba's in pj's are coming down the stairs
ba's in pj's are coming down in pairs
ba's in pj's are being chased by anTv's every where's

so very much an adc moment

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 10th 2022.

38,073 new cases for Australia and 22 deaths so the CMR is 0.158%.

NZ recorded 21,045 cases and 26 deaths for a CMR of 0.030% while case numbers pass 300k. It should be noted that there was a change in the reporting of deaths that caused the increase as the total went from 65 to 91.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.839%.

47,966 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,085 deaths sees CMR at 1.221%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 452M;
Global deaths pass 6.05M, the last 50k in 7 days;
Asia sets a new daily high with 745,049 cases on 9/3;
Europe passes 163M cases;
Asia passes 123M cases;
South America passes 55M cases;
Switzerland and Austria pass 3M cases;

Austria (49,432); and
Germany (300,270);

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Egypt drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 12,850 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0330 (from 1.0615) while the actual line is now slightly below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,075 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9912 (from 1.0056) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



WA (5,005) set a new daily record on 11/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 11th 2022.

34,886 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.157%.

NZ recorded 21,071 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.028%.

The UK recorded 156,601 cases and 256 deaths over 2 days for a CMR of 0.833%.

42,757 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,959 deaths sees CMR at 1.223%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 455M;
Europe passes 164M cases;
Asia passes 124M cases;
Netherlands passes 7M cases;

Finland (21,159); and
Vietnam (169,114)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Ireland moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Slovenia and Georgia drop below.

[CyberWasp]

I haven't been following things too closely lately.
My question is where are we at with what happens 3 months after the booster or 3rd shot?
Is there any answer on what happens next?

[FairmontGS]

I’m booking in for my fourth shot this week. There’s no one really policing it and the chemist administered the booster with minimal questions. So why not?

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,093 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0285 (from 1.0330) while the actual line is about level with the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,192 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9771 (from 0.9912) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 12/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 12th 2022.

31,599 new cases for Australia and 20 deaths so the CMR is 0.156%.

NZ recorded 18,740 cases and 2 deaths for a CMR of 0.027%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.833%.

41,455 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,040 deaths sees CMR at 1.224%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 456M;
Asia passes 125M cases;
Germany passes 17M cases;
South Korea passes 6M cases;

Only
South Korea (383,651)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Guatemala and Turkey drop below.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I’m booking in for my fourth shot this week. There’s no one really policing it and the chemist administered the booster with minimal questions. So why not?

You should really consult your treating doctor for his/her opinion when it is ideal to get your fourth shot if it warranted. I would think the flu shot is your most next beneficial shot to get.
My comment is based on when I spoke to my doctor a few days ago.

[russellw]

Global (figures up to 12/3/22)


During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.328% compared to 1.331% in the previous period and 2.323% a year ago today.

Case number have tapered off slightly with 22.462M in this period compared to 24.1M in the previous period with 99,858 deaths in the last 14 days for a lower CMR of 0.445% on an unadjusted basis. That's 26% less deaths than the previous period and the adjusted CMR based on the previous period case numbers is 0.414% but that's far from an exact science.

Note that 'adjusted' CMR uses the case numbers from between 16 and 30 days ago and the mortalities from the last 14 days

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 4.9% but the variance in the number of deaths only 1.65% so that's a positive sign.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 10% growth rate are headed by Hong Kong (+86.1%); New Zealand (+80.4%); South Korea (+54.4%);Brunei (49.3%); Vietnam (+40.9%); Singapore (+25.1%); Iceland (+22.2%);Austria (+15.4%);Japan (+15.0%); Germany (+14.1%); Finland (+13.1%); Latvia (+12.9%); Australia (+11.5%);Netherlands (+11.4%); Malaysia (+10.7%);Channel Islands (+10.7%); Martinique (+10.6%) with Thailand & Switzerland right on +10.0%.

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Hong Kong (+86.7%), New Zealand (+44.6%), Brunei (+29.4%), Iceland (+22.8%), South Korea (+22.2%), Singapore (+12.3%), Denmark (+11.5%), Japan (+11.0%), Australia (+11.4%) and Finland (+10.9%) having double digit growth amongst countries with >100k cases.