Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,545 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9595 (0.9619) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 7,372 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9543 (0.9628) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 28th 2022.

32,810 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 6,438 cases and 11 deaths for a CMR of 0.096% (-).

The UK reported 6,474 cases and 244 deaths for a CMR of 0.800% (-).

98,249 new cases in the USA yesterday and 263 deaths sees CMR at 1.203% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 531M;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,855 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9570 (0.9595) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,288 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9716 (0.9543) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 158,348 (-57.5%) cases in the period to 12/5 and a lower 1,980 deaths between 12-27/5 for a CMR of 1.317 - much higher than the previous period (0.644%) and higher than it has been since before freedom day.

Thus, in the 300 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 16,663,606 cases and 48,821 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.293% which is above the 0.284% at day 285.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.

[Citroënbender]

There’s enough meat in your UK chart now to reasonably cite the last four months as start of a decline in mortalities. Hoping that a pragmatic balance is sustained for relatively open borders.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 29th 2022.

26,787 new cases for Australia and 28 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 8,899 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.096% (-).

The UK reported 6,474 cases and 244 deaths for a CMR of 0.800% (-).

11,595 new cases in the USA yesterday and 41 deaths sees CMR at 1.203% (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 531M;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,342 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9869 (0.9570) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,595 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9924 (0.9716) while the actual line is now slightly above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 30th 2022.

26,083 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 5,901 cases and 5 deaths for a CMR of 0.096% (-).

The UK reported 16,828 cases and 84 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (é).

12,290 new cases in the USA yesterday and 20 deaths sees CMR at 1.203% (-).

Other notable points:
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Some more research from Hong Kong looking at the impact of using oral antivirals to treat COVID patients - specifically molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir / ritonavir.

Among 40,776 hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection over a mean follow-up of 41.3 days (925,713 person-days) 2,359 and 1,000 patients not initially requiring oxygen therapy were initiated with molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir / ritonavir, respectively.

The crude incidence rates of all-cause mortality and IMV were 22.24 and 1.06 events per 10,000 person-days among molnupiravir users, 11.04 and 1.75 events per 10,000 person-days among nirmatrelvir / ritonavir users.

Oral antiviral use was associated with a significantly lower risk of the composite outcome of disease progression than non-use, which was consistently observed for all-cause mortality. Molnupiravir users had lower risks of IMV and time to achieving lower viral load was significantly shorter among oral antiviral users than matched controls. Amongst survivors, nirmatrelvir / ritonavir had shorter length of hospital stay than matched controls.

Head-to-head comparison of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir / ritonavir reported higher risk of mortality (HR=1.53) and longer length of hospital stay (+0.83 days) for molnupiravir users.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Haven't been keeping up with this thread much in the past 6 months so excuse me if this has been discussed, but has anyone tested positive for Covid a second time yet?
If yes, is there any difference between infections in terms of symptoms or severity?

Think I’m about to pull this stunt myself, if it kills me “I love youse all”.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Think I’m about to pull this stunt myself, if it kills me “I love youse all”.

CB smash the vitamins C and D plus zinc and quercentin you could also add turmeric and Manuka honey blend, you have nothing to loose and sure beats the Governments suck it and see approach. All the best with it mate.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,383 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0126 (0.9869) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,934 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0179 (0.9924) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having (unusually) 14,417 less cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 11,041 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 11,561 less, Queensland 8,673 less; WA 31,768 less and SA 4,366 less. The week totalled 255,532 cases or 18.8% less than last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 31st 2022.

33,909 new cases for Australia and 53 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 8,553 cases and 16 deaths for a CMR of 0.097% (é).

The UK reported 6,063 cases and 110 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

121,370 new cases in the USA yesterday and 193 deaths sees CMR at 1.202% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 532M;
Asia passes 156M cases;
Brazil passes 31M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,583 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0188 (1.0126) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,204 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0242 (1.0179) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 1st 2022.

35,699 new cases for Australia and 35 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 8,316 cases and 12 deaths for a CMR of 0.097% (-).

The UK reported 5,306 cases and 90 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

196,143 new cases in the USA yesterday and 564 deaths sees CMR at 1.199% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 533M;
USA passes 86M cases;
Brazil passes 31M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Costa Rica moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

May averaged 623,974 cases and 1,597 deaths per day compared to April which averaged 822,374 cases and 2,903 deaths per day

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,412 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9946 (1.0188) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,583 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9882 (1.0242) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. In terms of milestones, the NT has recorded 50 deaths this year; WA has passed 250 and NSW 2,500 deaths for 2022.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 2nd 2022.

34,060 new cases for Australia and 54 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 8,001 cases and 11 deaths for a CMR of 0.098% (é).

The UK reported 5,306 cases and 90 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

147,142 new cases in the USA yesterday and 610 deaths sees CMR at 1.198% (ê).

Other notable points:
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 3rd 2022.

32,118 new cases for Australia and 50 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 6,335 cases and 12 deaths for a CMR of 0.098% (-).

The UK reported 5,306 cases and 90 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

158,995 new cases in the USA yesterday and 407 deaths sees CMR at 1.196% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 534M;
North America passes 102M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,594 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9811 (0.9946) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,445 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9646 (0.9982) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 4th 2022.

26,745 new cases for Australia and 60 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (é). I’m a little concerned with the relatively high mortality numbers the last few days, with the daily average now above 50 per day despite the decreasing case numbers.

NZ recorded 6,409 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.098% (-).

The UK reported 5,306 cases and 90 deaths for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

109,495 new cases in the USA yesterday and 422 deaths sees CMR at 1.195% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 535M;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Global 05/06/22 (figures up to 04/06/22)


During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.181% compared to 1.195% in the previous period and 2.168% a year ago today. Notably; Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Ireland, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan and the UK all saw CMR rise.

Case numbers decrease again with 8.043M in this period compared to 10.08M in the previous period and 20,069 deaths in the last period for a lower CMR of 0.194% on an unadjusted basis. It should be noted that a number of countries (mostly in Africa) haven’t reported in this period.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 1.5% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.32%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 5% growth rate are headed by Taiwan (+47.0%); North Korea (+38.4%);Martinique (+12.9%); New Zealand (+8.2%);Australia (+6.7%) and Panama (+5.0%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Taiwan (+52.3%); New Zealand (+14.9%); Australia (+7.4%) and North Korea (+7.0%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 5,168 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9377 (0.9811) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 7,077 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9530 (0.9646) while the actual line drops below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[ford71V8]

....double post

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by russellw

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 4th 2022.

26,745 new cases for Australia and 60 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (é). I’m a little concerned with the relatively high mortality numbers the last few days, with the daily average now above 50 per day despite the decreasing case numbers.

Agree with that.
It is crazy how quickly people have accepted double digit daily death numbers.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Agree with that.
It is crazy how quickly people have accepted double digit daily death numbers.

But is it correct because this strain is supposed to be a lot less fatal than delta yet over this side of the ditch we've had more deaths recently and I've noticed they announce that we've had x amount of deaths today and this week WTF does that mean ? And they used to announce how many died from covid now they say how many died with covid? ....so if you get hit by a bus and have covid you're added to the covid stats ,I can't see why they would want to exaggerate the deaths other than to ramp up the fear and scare everyone into wearing masks

[T3rminator]

NYT has us as one of the worse countries in the past week (if not, the worse?) for cases per capita, but on the other side of the spectrum on deaths per capita.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

Was at the MCG today, 40,000+, don't think I saw one spectator with a mask. Only some of the workers had them. Jolimont station looked pretty chockers. Think we will see a bigger numbers once we get deep into winter.

[PooDog]

Another thing that doesn't stack up at the height of infections we were having 1 to 2 deaths a day and anything from 20 to 80 people in ICU ......now we're having 8 to 10 deaths a day and lately they've been reporting there's 8 people in ICU what do they all die every day, doesn't stack up you might get the odd person cark it while isolating at home ? .....I don't know of anyone dying?

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 4,486 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9449 (0.9377) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 7,577 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9683 (0.9530) while the actual line is slightly above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[Polyal]

Not to sure its a CV thing, but, we have had the flu go through the family a bit too and two members who have had it are struggling to shake the cough for a week, hopefully it goes soon. Havent bothered to test, so over even thinking of covid.

Why are we still recording cases? Are we actually going to do anything about it? Would have thought we just keep an eye on ED and then if its getting bad then start to look at it again but even then short of lockdowns (good luck) what can you do?

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 6th 2022.

17,417 new cases for Australia and 20 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.099% (-).

The UK reported 38,417 cases and 207 cases over 5 days for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

79,686 new cases in the USA yesterday and 146 deaths sees CMR at 1.194% (ê).

Other notable points:
South America passes 58M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Ecuador moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.