Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Here are some graphs we haven't looked at for a long time.

First up the CMR by Continent. We last looked at this in February so I've put those figures in brackets. The current global average is 1.051% (1.42) with South America the worst at 2.07% (2.39), followed by Africa with 2.04% (2.16) and North America with 1.32% (1.47) all above the global average. The lowest is Oceania with 0.17% (0.23) followed by Asia with 0.78% (1.23) and Europe with 0.84% (1.16).



Individual country CMR which we last looked at in December 2021. The current global average is 1.051% (1.977) and the worst country is still Peru with 5.226% although that's an improvement on the 8.971% at the end of 2021. Countries below the global average include Spain with 0.851% (1.696); the UK with 0.804% (1.181); Italy with 0.786% (2.617) and Australia with 0.349% (0.936). Countries still above include the USA with 1.105% (1.616); Russia with 1.841% (2.875) and Brazil with 1.977% (2.780).



Finally, mortalities per 100k of population which is the only one of these charts not to be impacted by case number reporting. We also looked at this back in February when the global average was 103.8 and it has since increased to 116.8 as you'd expect.

Again, the worst country is Peru with 864 (828) followed by the USA with 519 (450); Italy with 480 (408); Brazil with 414 (384); the UK with 365 (306) and Russia with an understated 331 (289). Australia is near the bottom with 84 (25) while India has supposedly moved to the bottom with 52 (50).

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,134 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 228 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 1,825 less; Queensland 91 less; WA 39 less and SA 384 less while New Zealand (+167) went the other way. The week totalled 36,790 cases, a 7.0% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending October 7th 2022.


36,790 new cases for Australia and 190 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.149% (é).
NZ reported 9,949 cases and 33 deaths for a CMR of 0.167% (é).
The UK reported a higher 62,418 cases and higher 571 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.804% (-).
286,093 new cases in the USA this week and 2,808 deaths sees CMR at 1.104 (-).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 625M;
Global deaths pass 6.55M, the last 50k in 30 days;
Europe passes 229M cases;
Asia passes 190M cases;
Russia passes 21M cases;
Germanymoves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period whileRussia drops below.

Global case numbers are down again to 2,949,342 this week compared to the 3,115,409 last week and the number of deaths fell from an amended 9,621 last week to 9,277 this week.

[4vxc]

Just thought I'd put my experience in.
I caught covid about 5 week's ago from the boss at work who knew he'd been exposed to it, he also knows about my past stage 3 cancer but didn't worry about that.
I got symptoms about 3 days later then went down hill quickly, ended up off work for 3 weeks.
I've gone back on reduced hours
My wife also caught it and had 2 weeks off work, she is immune compromised due to arthritis medication
We didn't qualify for the covid payments because of having over 10k in liquid assets
We both got put on the anti viral medicine but are still struggling.
I've lost my energy which is really bad timing as I've got my old Ford in pieces
Wife has a ridiculous cough she can't get rid of
So while it might be back to normal for most for some it's still very real unfortunately, so it ****es me off a little when I hear people saying covid is over, nothing too worry about now
Rant over

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by 4vxc

Just thought I'd put my experience in.
I caught covid about 5 week's ago from the boss at work who knew he'd been exposed to it, he also knows about my past stage 3 cancer but didn't worry about that.
I got symptoms about 3 days later then went down hill quickly, ended up off work for 3 weeks.
I've gone back on reduced hours
My wife also caught it and had 2 weeks off work, she is immune compromised due to arthritis medication
We didn't qualify for the covid payments because of having over 10k in liquid assets
We both got put on the anti viral medicine but are still struggling.
I've lost my energy which is really bad timing as I've got my old Ford in pieces
Wife has a ridiculous cough she can't get rid of
So while it might be back to normal for most for some it's still very real unfortunately, so it ****es me off a little when I hear people saying covid is over, nothing too worry about now
Rant over

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

Spot on It's Me. I hope 4vxc wasn't aiming the "it's over, nothing to worry about" comment at me re my earlier post. That wasn't what I was trying to say. Whilst the pandemic response may be over, the resolution from our government just puts the covid response into the same, or similar, basket to any other disease out there. It will still impact on people. 4vxc's experience is an example of just that.

All the best, 4vxc, I hope both you and your wife recover soon.

[4vxc]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Spot on It's Me. I hope 4vxc wasn't aiming the "it's over, nothing to worry about" comment at me re my earlier post. That wasn't what I was trying to say. Whilst the pandemic response may be over, the resolution from our government just puts the covid response into the same, or similar, basket to any other disease out there. It will still impact on people. 4vxc's experience is an example of just that.

All the best, 4vxc, I hope both you and your wife recover soon.

no mate not aimed towards you in any way, all good

[4vxc]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

The guy I work for is the most selfish, self centred person I've ever known in my life, his sense of self importance is incredible and has absolutely no concern for anyone even his family
Also takes racism to a new level I haven't seen before and I've been around for a while, he tells stories about his past in another country which seem hard to believe
Naturally he only had very mild symptoms from covid

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending October 14th 2022.


35,993 new cases for Australia and 109 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.150% (é).
NZ reported 11,177 cases and 21 deaths for a CMR of 0.167% (-).
The UK reported a higher 63,520 cases and higher 793 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.805% (é).
A higher 295,666 new cases in the USA this week and lower 2,678 deaths sees CMR at 1.103 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 629M;
Europe passes 231M cases;
Asia passes 191M cases;
North America passes 117M cases;
France passes 36M cases;
South Korea passes 25M cases;
Italy passes 23M cases;
Taiwan passes 7M cases;
Nepal passes 1M cases;
Italy moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period whileno countries drops below.

Global case numbers are up again to 3,233,739 this week compared to the 2,949,342 last week and the number of deaths also rose from an unamended 9,277 last week to 9,527 this week.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers:


NSW had 1,537 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 1,169 less cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 1,133 more;
Queensland recorded 906 less;
WA recorded 286 more;
SA recorded 208 less; and
New Zealand recorded +1,218 more.

The week totalled 35,593 cases, a 2.2% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[burnz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeUkkcKUmcg

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.





NSW had 3,839 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 1,201 less cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 3,064 less;
Queensland recorded 1,241 less;
WA recorded 72 more;
SA recorded 47 more; and
New Zealand recorded 3,121 more.

The week totalled 30,565 cases, a 15.1% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending October 21st 2022.


30,565 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.150% (-).
NZ reported 14,288 cases and 34 deaths for a CMR of 0.168% (é).
The UK reported a lower 56,729 cases and higher 1,001 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.808% (é).
A lower 235,708 new cases in the USA this week and lower 2,252 deaths sees CMR at 1.103 (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 632M;
Europe passes 232M cases;
Asia passes 192M cases;
USA passes 99M cases;
Singapore passes 2M cases;
No countries moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Italy drops below.

Global case numbers are down again to 3,063,317 this week compared to the 3,233,739 last week and the number of deaths also fell from an unamended 9,527 last week to 9,231 this week.

[russellw]

Global (figures up to 24/10/22)

During the last month, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.039% compared to 1.055% in the previous period and 2.027% a year ago today. Notably; Australia, Azerbaijan, Canada, Finland, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Thailand and the United Kingdom all saw CMR rise.

Case numbers decrease with 13.856M in this period compared to 14.614M in the previous period with 46,982 deaths in the last month for a lower CMR of 0.339% on an unadjusted basis.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 2.2% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.71%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 4% growth for the month are Taiwan (+17.4%); Hong Kong (+7.7%);Singapore (+8.8%); Germany (+6.9%);Austria (+6.3%); Costa Rica (+5.3%); Greece (+5.1%); Japan (+4.9%); Italy (+4.8%); Slovenia (+4.7%); Qatar (+4.4%) and France (+4.2%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Taiwan (+13.1%); Finland (+7.5%); New Zealand (+5.7%); Japan (+4.5%) and Australia (+4.2%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.





NSW had 1,976 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 1,677 more cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 1,214 more;
Queensland recorded 1,376 less;
WA recorded 892 more;
SA recorded 49 less; and
New Zealand recorded 2,055 more.
The week totalled 33,273 cases, an 8.9% increase on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending October 28th 2022.


30,565 new cases for Australia and 132 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.151% (é).
NZ reported 16,343 cases and 38 deaths for a CMR of 0.168% (-).
The UK reported a lower 42,697 cases and lower 991 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.810% (é).
A higher 269,381 new cases in the USA this week and lower 2,238 deaths sees CMR at 1.103 (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 634M;
Europe passes 234M cases;
Asia passes 193M cases;
Japan passes 22M cases;
Greece passes 5M cases;
No countries moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Austria, Slovenia and Germany drop below.

Global case numbers are down again to 2,664,852 this week compared to the 3,063,317 last week but the number of deaths increased from an unamended 9,231 last week to 9,877 this week.

[russellw]

We've officially passed more than 10x the number of deaths this year (13,427) than we had in 2021 (1,323) however that is on the back of 27x more cases (10.06M v 371.2k) this year to date.

Thus, over the duration of the pandemic, we've seen the CMR drop from a terrible 3.049% in 2020 after the aged care debacle, through a much better 0.356% last year and down to 0.133% this year.

To put that in perspective.

If 2022 had the same CMR as 2020 then 306,782 people would have died this year.
If 2022 had the same CMR as 2021 then 35,858 people would have died this year.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending November 4th 2022.


A higher 40,233 new cases for Australia and 187 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.151% (-).
NZ reported 20,456 cases and 18 deaths for a CMR of 0.168% (-).
The UK reported a lower 31,352 cases and higher 1,031 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.814% (é).
A higher 282,379 new cases in the USA this week and higher 2,947 deaths sees CMR at 1.102 (ê).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 637M;
Global deaths pass 6.6M, the last 50k in 31 days;
Asia passes 194M cases;
North America passes 118M cases;
Philippines passes 4M cases.

Japan moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

Global case numbers are down again to 2,249,432 this week compared to the 2,644,852 last week but the number of deaths increased from an unamended 9,877 last week to 10,452 this week.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

NSW had 1,513 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 1,689 more cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 2,400 more;
Queensland recorded 20 less;
WA recorded 1,051 more;
SA recorded 1,287 more; and
New Zealand recorded 4,113 more.
The week totalled 40,233 cases, a 20.9% increase on last week.
.. trends over the last 3 months:

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Queenslanders advised to wear masks in some settings as Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk warns fourth COVID-19 wave is here

[russellw]

I think that Anna might be right ...

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



NSW had 2,224 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 6,410 more cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 7,350 more;
Queensland recorded 1,401 more;
WA recorded 1,155 more;
SA recorded 3,070 more; and
New Zealand recorded 314 more.

The week totalled 60,849 cases, a 51.2% increase on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending November 11th 2022.


A much higher 60,849 new cases for Australia and 83 deaths this week but the CMR is still 0.151% (-).
NZ reported 20,770 cases and 41 deaths for a CMR of 0.168% (-).
The UK didn’t report this week so thyat's about 30k off the global total.
A higher 287,681 new cases in the USA this week and lower 2,092 deaths sees CMR at 1.101 (ê).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 639M;
Europe passes 235M cases;
Asia passes 195M cases;
France passes 37M cases;
South Korea passes 26M cases;
Japan passes 23M cases;

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Taiwan drops below.

Global case numbers are back up again to 2,390,550 this week compared to the 2,249,432 last week and the number of deaths increased from an unamended 10,452 last week to 10,587 this week.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

There's certainly an uptick visible in that data, Russ.

I see that some in NSW are calling for work from home mandates:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/...13-p5bxs8.html

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



NSW had 3,164 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 3,762 more cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 8,069 more;
Queensland recorded 4,278 more;
WA recorded 1,036 more;
SA recorded 1,479 more; and
New Zealand recorded 800 more.
The week totalled 79,743 cases, a 31.3% increase on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending November 18th 2022.


A higher 79,743 new cases for Australia and 108 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.151% (-).
NZ reported 20,770 cases and 41 deaths for a CMR of 0.168% (-).
The UK reported a lower 23,848 cases and lower 711 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.818% (é).
A lower 266,273 new cases in the USA this week and higher 2,300 deaths sees CMR at 1.101 (-).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 642M;
Europe passes 236M cases;
Asia passes 196M cases;
Hong Kong passes 2M cases;
Italy passes 24M cases;
Brazil passes 35M cases;
The USA passes 100M cases;

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Taiwan drops below.

Global case numbers are up again (slightly) to 2,394,506 this week compared to the 2,390,550 last week and the number of deaths increased from an unamended 10,587 last week to 10,696 this week.

[burnz]

now this is worrying..
https://www.********.com/video/kMT1bdGLxfw/

related, but slightly off topic.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by burnz

now this is worrying..
https://www.********.com/video/kMT1bdGLxfw/

related, but slightly off topic.

What is the difference between a conspiracy theory and the latest news update??

About 6 months.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

What is the difference between a conspiracy theory and the latest news update??

About 6 months.

I've narrowed it down to 48 hours, still working on it.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




NSW had 7,471 more cases than Victoria last week;
Victoria recorded 1,883 more cases than the previous week;
NSW recorded 3,662 more;
Queensland recorded 24 less;
WA recorded 1,424 more;
SA recorded 654 more; and
New Zealand recorded 2,471 more.
The week totalled 88,181 cases, a 10.6% increase on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending November 25th 2022.


A higher 88,181 new cases for Australia and 109 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.151% (-).
NZ reported 24,041 cases and 40 deaths for a CMR of 0.169% (é).
The UK reported a lower 22,464 cases and lower 580 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.820 (é).
A higher 300,628 new cases in the USA this week and higher 2,325 deaths sees CMR at 1.100 (ê).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 645M;
Europe passes 237M cases;
Asia passes 198M cases;
UK passes 24M cases;
Japan passes 24M cases;

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

Global case numbers are up again to 2,778,285 this week compared to the 2,394,506 last week and the number of deaths decreased slightly from an unamended 10,654 last week to 10,696 this week.