Australia housing bubble

[Sprintey]

Just looked at G-Town, the only studio is on Ryrie 1.3m lol

1br was lowest ask 230s, then quickly went up into 400s within first few listings

2br that isn't a caravan park or retirement living starts at 330, gets to 370-400 in a blip

wow, Sydney seems like value!

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

And Yellow Festiva - that bedsit/1brm etc pricing in Sydney was really interesting. I assume that would simply be a search on the RE websites, choose 'cheapest first' and maybe dwelling type, then these come in? Will try for our town.

Absolutely. Domain is the better one as they can search for the entire city region (ie you can search 'all of Sydney' (and I assume other cities / regional hubs will have the same search options).

When using Realestate.com you can't search the entire Sydney area, it breaks it down into districts. I guess you can use the search by map function to bypass that problem?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Are you implying that I'm purchasing to invest? I'm not

Assumed, sorry. Best of luck. With the way clearance rates have plummeted, you're bound to grab a bargain.

Originally Posted by Sprintey

It's an interesting scenario right now. A mate asked "How can we have a recession if there's full employment?"

Supply-side inflation. A lot of us aren't passing on the full cost of that inflation because we still have to compete. That erodes margins.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Just looked at G-Town, the only studio is on Ryrie 1.3m lol

1br was lowest ask 230s, then quickly went up into 400s within first few listings

2br that isn't a caravan park or retirement living starts at 330, gets to 370-400 in a blip

wow, Sydney seems like value!

If you zoom out a bit to what one can assume is greater Geelong the prices drop... slightly.

I guess Sydney being such a big place with a variety of 'areas' will allow for larger variations in prices.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/pr...rce=refinement

$39 000. I reckon you could easily make your money back renting that out for Horror movies.



https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...imur-139299551

[mad2]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

$39 000. I reckon you could easily make your money back renting that out for Horror movies.

image

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...imur-139299551

believe i drove past that place ... maybe 15 odd years ago?. wonder if i still have the pics??.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by mad2

believe i drove past that place ... maybe 15 odd years ago?. wonder if i still have the pics??.

Might have turned to dust since the RE pics were taken, does mention a slight white ant problem.

[FairmontGS]

The neighbors have a good bit of gear that I'd like to fossick through!

https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-36....7i13312!8i6656

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

The neighbors have a good bit of gear that I'd like to fossick through!

https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-36....7i13312!8i6656

MMMMM, cabovers.

[zilo]

Some say the aussie bubble is a mirror of the japanese bubble in the 1990's...

Japan still hasn't recovered.

This is gunna be fun...ANZ lifted rates by 0.9% last week...the promise of things to come.

I certainly hope so, because so many rocket scientists need an attitude correction.

[hackney]

Current up to date Housing prices June to date,June Qtr to date :Sydney:-1.5% -2.7%.Melbourne:-1.0% -1.7%.Brisbane: 0.2% 2.7%.Adelaide:1.2% 5.0%.Perth:0.3% 2.0%. 5 Cities -0.8% 0.9%.Adelaide I find hard to believe, because prices are coming slowly off the boil.Otherwise these figures are pretty good.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by zilo

Some say the aussie bubble is a mirror of the japanese bubble in the 1990's...

Japan still hasn't recovered.

This is gunna be fun...ANZ lifted rates by 0.9% last week...the promise of things to come.

I certainly hope so, because so many rocket scientists need an attitude correction.

There's a couple of feeds I follow on YouTube including Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics and IOTP. Great statistics and information about what the likely scenario is in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane once interest rates hit 5% plus soon. It'll be like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Plenty of bargains to be picked up in the next 18-24 months imo.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Romulus

There's a couple of feeds I follow on YouTube including Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics and IOTP. Great statistics and information about what the likely scenario is in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane once interest rates hit 5% plus soon. It'll be like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Plenty of bargains to be picked up in the next 18-24 months imo.

In my region, prices are already cooling.Auction clearance rates are also slowly pulling back.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by hackney

In my region, prices are already cooling.Auction clearance rates are also slowly pulling back.

https://twitter.com/Mark_G_Davies/st...CjlkWVGFs_w3wA

https://twitter.com/solo_dio_/status...CjlkWVGFs_w3wA

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Romulus

https://twitter.com/Mark_G_Davies/st...CjlkWVGFs_w3wA

https://twitter.com/solo_dio_/status...CjlkWVGFs_w3wA

They won’t necessarily ‘nose dive’,but more of a correction,sort of a plateau effect.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Romulus

There's a couple of feeds I follow on YouTube including Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics and IOTP. Great statistics and information about what the likely scenario is in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane once interest rates hit 5% plus soon. It'll be like watching a train crash in slow motion.
.

yep,yep and yep...been following Martin for few years now.

Most balanced views on the internet IMHO.

I wonder how long it will take some people to figure out that the RBA rate is just a base rate...the banks have always had rates rise out of cycle with the RBA...0.9%...wow...didn't even get a whimper on the main stream media.

.

[T3rminator]

One thing about Australia, we have a bucket loads of rules and regulations. Hopefully some of those will prove useful when times get tough. I recall when APRA raised the alarm on lending approaching or hitting 1:6 on income to loan ratio, the banks started to tighten their lending criteria. Possible dangers are those "low doc" loans that some banks were dishing out a while ago. That could come back and bite hard, or the "liar loans". I highly doubt RBA will make decisions that will cause a rout in the market, its not what they were designed to do. Any potential crash will likely be caused by something out of the left field, an event that we haven't even discussed yet.

Doom and gloom. What a great time for first home buyers, if they don't get caught up in the doom and gloom themselves.

Originally Posted by zilo

yep,yep and yep...been following Martin for few years now.

Most balanced views on the internet IMHO.

I wonder how long it will take some people to figure out that the RBA rate is just a base rate...the banks have always had rates rise out of cycle with the RBA...0.9%...wow...didn't even get a whimper on the main stream media.

.

Originally Posted by Romulus

There's a couple of feeds I follow on YouTube including Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics and IOTP. Great statistics and information about what the likely scenario is in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane once interest rates hit 5% plus soon. It'll be like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Plenty of bargains to be picked up in the next 18-24 months imo.

So, what was the gist of what was said? Whats the prediction?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

So, what was the gist of what was said? Whats the prediction?

Go here and find DFA predictions first hand.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKW...FTD1KHsmow4-bQ

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by hackney

In my region, prices are already cooling.Auction clearance rates are also slowly pulling back.

Mid 50's percentage wise....

Will see what happens in the next few months. NZ RE is really going down in value, I believe they are a bit ahead of us with rate rises but I think it's a good indication of where we are headed.

[MustangNicko]

Originally Posted by zilo

Go here and find DFA predictions first hand.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKW...FTD1KHsmow4-bQ

I quite enjoy his other channel with John Adams

https://youtube.com/c/IntheInterestsofthePeople

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MustangNicko

I quite enjoy his other channel with John Adams

https://youtube.com/c/IntheInterestsofthePeople

yeah, agreed...they did some excellent work with the cash ban legislation, and they explain how the 250k banking guarantee is a complete lie as well.

[T3rminator]

Really glad YT has the double speed function.

Do these vids tell us how to make our next fortune? Or is it just all doom and gloom?

[Citroënbender]

After observing a general lack of deep commitment (retail structures, civil works, infrastructure upgrades) barely 150km out of greater Sydney I believe the “moving to the regions” thing was just a faddish phase of grown-ups playing cubbyhouses. “Land for sale” is really only indicative of speculation, and you can still see a good bit of that.

So I do expect Sydney house prices to rebound, once people admit it’s often a charade to move away.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zilo

Some say the aussie bubble is a mirror of the japanese bubble in the 1990's...

Japan still hasn't recovered.

Japan's population growth rate has been in decline since the 50s, and the population has actually been in decline for the last 10 years and is projected to continue to do so. So the demand for housing is falling, unlike here.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

So I do expect Sydney house prices to rebound, once people admit it’s often a charade to move away.

Trouble is if you leave and party on the difference you pocketed, it can be a bit difficult to move back.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by b0son

Trouble is if you leave and party on the difference you pocketed, it can be a bit difficult to move back.

True - why I foresee a diversion to other titling options including long term protected leases that allow capital improvements.

[zilo]

Oh..oh...dear...

Without any connection to the RBA rate...

CBA has raised it's fixed mortgage rate by....1.14%

Taking it to 5.14%


Now things are getting interesting.....

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Really glad YT has the double speed function.

Do these vids tell us how to make our next fortune? Or is it just all doom and gloom?

If you consider factual reporting as doom and gloom then I guess the answer is yes to that question.

As for someone giving you the recipe for making a fortune I hear housing is the go...doubles every 7 years...true..trust me.

[MITCHAY]

CBA have jacked up fixed rates by 1.4% in one whack!

It occurred to me is how do you get a real read on interest rates and effect? The RBA will almost certainly raise rates on Tuesday.

The ABS usually report CPI quarterly, but we will have interest rates rises every month for a while yet.

So now the ABS are trying to move to a monthly cut down bundle of goods instead of quarterly which is good. You don't want to go to hard with rate rises, but you don't want to be soft at the same time so monthly reports is more useful than quarterly.

[Sprintey]

Yeah 1.4%, wow.

Pretty soon stuff has to be breaking, but it's hard to see in places as prices keep rising in the energy/food areas most noticeably - which would suggest more rate hikes needed to stop demand - or a domestic gas reservation on the east coast ha! People asking where to get rich, lettuces could be the vehicle. The snails keep getting mine however.

Car forum - I reckon driving around g-town it's quieter over most times of the day, non rush hour. Compared to 2019 which was totally manic. Is that the demand destruction at work from $2+ fuel? The lack of international students/immigration/Australia as a tourist theme-park? Just my timing? At any rate, the driving has been so much nicer