Petrol Price crisis......

[Sprintey]

I wonder if there's any bullwhip effect playing out in the decision beyond the political stuff
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...llwhip-effect/

---

Anyways, we've recently done the nullarbor for the 15th time or something and some fuel observations. Stocking up in the east with full tank and jerry, we filled on way over and then north of Adelaide, Ceduna. I was expecting the stations from Eucla to Norseman to be very expensive, so emptied jerry. Most we paid back in August was 2.59 at Nullarbor, the aforementioned stretch was in the 2.30s to 2.40. As always, some amazing things to see along the way, where it appears there isn't much to see!

One observation, someone asked in the V Facts thread what price would stop people driving, 2.50, $3? Well, this trip over was bliss because it's the quietest I've ever seen it. Been doing trips since the late 90s. So maybe the Big Trip might be viewed a bit more as a discretionary spend now the covid $$$ have dried up?

The laden AWD petrol Terry did really well, got it to 10.03L/100km. Pretty good considering a mate's current model diesel Prado was doing 11.5 on a country run, unladen. Terry total fuel cost was about $800, 2 people, and a lot of packing stuff to take to help a relative move in... not bad, really. The Ford I6 has 320,000 on the clock now, unopened and still strong. We did this one quickly, 2 drivers, quite a few rest stops and overnight got sufficient sleep.

Cars noted: Vic has Rangies, as does the Coonawarra, in some number. Eyre peninsula is dominated by 79 series LandCruisers. Nullarbor was just us and the trucks with a sprinkling of grey nomads. Great southern WA seems to have Falcon/Commodore replaced by Toyota hybrids - Camry, RAV4, Corolla.

[Bossxr8]

The sinking aussie dollar isn't helping.

[T3rminator]

This feels like the calm before the storm. Servos haven't jacked up their prices since excise discount ended or OPEC's announcement of production cut.

I wouldn't bet against a 40-50c jump pretty soon.

[Sprintey]

Oh yeah one further thing that seems to defy the current fuel crisis noted on the trip: when we got up to around Kalbarri, the ubiquitous 200 series and huge dual axle off-road van, got replaced by the RAM/F150/Chevy and huge dual axle off-road van. They were out in great numbers.

This seems to fly in the face of the rising fuel prices.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Oh yeah one further thing that seems to defy the current fuel crisis noted on the trip: when we got up to around Kalbarri, the ubiquitous 200 series and huge dual axle off-road van, got replaced by the RAM/F150/Chevy and huge dual axle off-road van. They were out in great numbers.

This seems to fly in the face of the rising fuel prices.

"work vehicle"

[GASWAGON]

OPEC cuts not effective due to more talk about possible U.S recession again.

Both WTI and Brent crude still under $95p/b which is great news!

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Oh yeah one further thing that seems to defy the current fuel crisis noted on the trip: when we got up to around Kalbarri, the ubiquitous 200 series and huge dual axle off-road van, got replaced by the RAM/F150/Chevy and huge dual axle off-road van. They were out in great numbers.

This seems to fly in the face of the rising fuel prices.

If you can afford those vehicles & rigs a slight price hike in fuel is not going to stop you to travel.

[FairmontGS]

What price hikes? Filled up 91 @ 1.675 today Petersham, Sydney.

[blueoval]

I topped up today 95 @ $1.82p/L in Noarlunga SA

[GASWAGON]

Another PetrolSpy look around showing Diesel prices in most states averaging about $2.25 p/l.

Not good!

[FTE217]

just filled the wife's CX5 E10 $1.75.
All due respect depending your circumstances.
Do people expect prices to stay similar to 2015 or pre covid for eg ?
Lets go back to 1970/80's another.
Like milk and bread petrol is another neccessity, thats it thats life we got to pay.
OK if you lost your job or the wife did, your hocked up, other bad luck curve balls that can occur I understand those having to count the 50c or $..
We just got to deal with it, move on no diff how you dealt with costs back in the day..
A bloke buying a newspaper this morn I noticed he thought damn thats expensive, he said I recall they were 20c, heck so do I but I don't expect it to be like then.
Just don't buy the paper mate its all on your mobile but go figure, running that costs more.

So what are you gonna do if its not good ?
Park the car truck ?
Alot of commodities are cheaper than long before though in less quality, then people complain about that as well.
Unfortunately life is not going back to the cheaper days of daily living, keep saving your coupons/discount offers spouse thats all you can counter the average cost of fuel/diesel that will have its highs and drops and back up again where do you actually win, mentally ?
What your saved somewhere you've paid more elsewhere.

[Franco Cozzo]

The context you're missing there is wages went up over the years to match cost of living increases.

We haven't seen the same level in increases in wages compared to cost of living increases so you're not looking at the full picture there. There's been stagnant wage growth over the last decade but prices for everything else have risen.

Also with news papers you don't have herald sun cutting production of their news papers by 20% to drive up prices.

OPEC has the world by the balls, they know we need them so they can do what they want.

So sure if you want to pay 2012 wages then I can understand why people want to pay 2012 prices.

You're starting to see push back in the employment market with people being more mobile changing careers or shopping employers as a counter.

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by Itsme

If you can afford those vehicles & rigs a slight price hike in fuel is not going to stop you to travel.

As said on a different site.Don’t travel as far(take in the scenery) and/ or take longer to do the trip,Don’t tear around OZ in 3 months take 6-12 months and see it all properly

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by FTE217

just filled the wife's CX5 E10 $1.75.
All due respect depending your circumstances.
Do people expect prices to stay similar to 2015 or pre covid for eg ?
Lets go back to 1970/80's another.
Like milk and bread petrol is another neccessity, thats it thats life we got to pay.
OK if you lost your job or the wife did, your hocked up, other bad luck curve balls that can occur I understand those having to count the 50c or $..
We just got to deal with it, move on no diff how you dealt with costs back in the day..
A bloke buying a newspaper this morn I noticed he thought damn thats expensive, he said I recall they were 20c, heck so do I but I don't expect it to be like then.
Just don't buy the paper mate its all on your mobile but go figure, running that costs more.

So what are you gonna do if its not good ?
Park the car truck ?
Alot of commodities are cheaper than long before though in less quality, then people complain about that as well.
Unfortunately life is not going back to the cheaper days of daily living, keep saving your coupons/discount offers spouse thats all you can counter the average cost of fuel/diesel that will have its highs and drops and back up again where do you actually win, mentally ?
What your saved somewhere you've paid more elsewhere.

All discetionary spending is cheaper.Electronics probably half the relative cost of 10-15 years ago.Motor cars less than half of the cost previously.Used to cost 2 years gross pay to buy a new car!now costs about 6-8 months gross pay.And you get a lot more features than you used to get

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

The context you're missing there is wages went up over the years to match cost of living increases.

We haven't seen the same level in increases in wages compared to cost of living increases so you're not looking at the full picture there. There's been stagnant wage growth over the last decade but prices for everything else have risen.

Also with news papers you don't have herald sun cutting production of their news papers by 20% to drive up prices.

OPEC has the world by the balls, they know we need them so they can do what they want.

So sure if you want to pay 2012 wages then I can understand why people want to pay 2012 prices.

You're starting to see push back in the employment market with people being more mobile changing careers or shopping employers as a counter.

oh I didn't mention the wages argument for thats more varied than bowser prices......
That argument can go on forever that here isn't the place.
IF your not earning enough like you quoted wages haven't increased to the cost of living > change career for there is also many Industries/or new positions that do pay well.
Double egded sword, one thing that is common from the past to now and ahead, its either sink or swim, this is life.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by FTE217

oh I didn't mention the wages argument for thats more varied than bowser prices......
That argument can go on forever that here isn't the place.
IF your not earning enough like you quoted wages haven't increased to the cost of living > change career for there is also many Industries/or new positions that do pay well.
Double egded sword, one thing that is common from the past to now and ahead, its either sink or swim, this is life.

Agree completely, but you can't have that conversation without acknowledging it, so don't turn around and tell half the story.

I'm seeing my local pizza shop now only operating 2 days a week because of staff shortages, who are in return now getting smashed with negative reviews on Google because 'they're never open' even though they do the best pizza I've tasted in my life, or cafes in the city trying to lobby the government to try force workers back into the city who are working from home or contractors complaining that before someone starts working for them they've received counter offers $10,000 higher from someone else and the person quits before they've even started.

It goes both ways my friend, if everyone just changes careers who are going to do those entry level jobs that haven't kept up with the cost of living? Got three child care centres in my small regional town but no child care workers to work there because they don't pay what the people need to be able to live out here.

Can't get your child into child care because there's no child care workers, guess you gotta work from home, so you're not buying that coffee every morning from the cafe near work anymore or going out for after work drinks with the social club at work either.

You go to the pub, no one working front of house?

If you pay them enough to keep up with cost of living, you going to accept paying $80 for your 300g porterhouse they got from Coles?

Love those pizzas, but I just stopped buying them because I'm not sure if they're going to be open or not so I just don't bother because people are making those career changes, I'm in the process of it now, I've knocked back four job offers recently in my former industry of people approaching me, because they can't afford me, if this was last year I would have entertained their offer but now, hell no its career change time.

Cost of living is way up there, but the wages haven't gone up to match, so we change career, I suspect the answer isn't that simple though, would like to get one of those pizzas again.

Bringing it back to fuel prices, friend of mine is going through a few thousand litres of diesel a week but the prices he gets paid to move stuff hasn't increased.

The other side of the coin is general freight seems to have variable fuel charges, the more diesel costs the more everything does.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Agree completely, but you can't have that conversation without acknowledging it, so don't turn around and tell half the story.

I'm seeing my local pizza shop now only operating 2 days a week because of staff shortages, who are in return now getting smashed with negative reviews on Google because 'they're never open' even though they do the best pizza I've tasted in my life, or cafes in the city trying to lobby the government to try force workers back into the city who are working from home or contractors complaining that before someone starts working for them they've received counter offers $10,000 higher from someone else and the person quits before they've even started.

It goes both ways my friend, if everyone just changes careers who are going to do those entry level jobs that haven't kept up with the cost of living? Got three child care centres in my small regional town but no child care workers to work there because they don't pay what the people need to be able to live out here.

Can't get your child into child care because there's no child care workers, guess you gotta work from home, so you're not buying that coffee every morning from the cafe near work anymore or going out for after work drinks with the social club at work either.

You go to the pub, no one working front of house?

If you pay them enough to keep up with cost of living, you going to accept paying $80 for your 300g porterhouse they got from Coles?

Love those pizzas, but I just stopped buying them because I'm not sure if they're going to be open or not so I just don't bother because people are making those career changes, I'm in the process of it now, I've knocked back four job offers recently in my former industry of people approaching me, because they can't afford me, if this was last year I would have entertained their offer but now, hell no its career change time.

Cost of living is way up there, but the wages haven't gone up to match, so we change career, I suspect the answer isn't that simple though, would like to get one of those pizzas again.

Bringing it back to fuel prices, friend of mine is going through a few thousand litres of diesel a week but the prices he gets paid to move stuff hasn't increased.

The other side of the coin is general freight seems to have variable fuel charges, the more diesel costs the more everything does.

Not to steer this thread off topic but if there was more of a community atmosphere where everyone looks out for each other, I think people will get by ok. I could be making things too simple with this line of thinking but I have noticed a few communities popping up online and in different areas where they are exchanging food, services and the like with each other rather than asking for a $ value on what they have.

Back on topic, some MSM are warning that prices for unleaded will be going up any day now to $2-2.20pL averages.

[FTE217]

yep and around and around it goes......
Be it in the 80/90/00's the viscious circle.
Franco I just couldn't be bothered typing paragraph after paragraph - I see all you quote just the same.
Point is get on with it or not, talk talk just like what has embedded big business/OH&S stifles getting on with it.
Everything will keep costing more, one pump location to another, do you fill up or not
I know why your pizza shop and the countless other small biz have gone up the creek sadly, Dan rules, he's screwed your place more than the virus itself.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by blueoval

Not to steer this thread off topic but if there was more of a community atmosphere where everyone looks out for each other, I think people will get by ok. I could be making things too simple with this line of thinking but I have noticed a few communities popping up online and in different areas where they are exchanging food, services and the like with each other rather than asking for a $ value on what they have.

Back on topic, some MSM are warning that prices for unleaded will be going up any day now to $2-2.20pL averages.

Sure, but maybe when the power company and the servo accept payment in blackberries rather than cash

[T3rminator]

Speaking of wage increase. I work for an org that rarely gives pay increase or bonuses. You go in knowing this full well, but you get perks in other ways. Got informed last night that we'll be getting a wage increase that will match CPI less 1%. Nearly fell off my chair. After tax, it will cover 1.5 tanks of petrol on the falcon per fortnight Been told at the top the main reason for the increase was to manage staff retention risk, due to raised cost of living other orgs being willing to up the ante. The initiative cost us $50m, not to mention the super that also goes with it.

A lot of companies, including ours, are also hesitant to enforce back to office working because they know they will lose staff. Who wants to spend an extra $100 in petrol and have the pleasure of sitting in traffic every morning and evening?

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm seeing my local pizza shop now only operating 2 days a week because of staff shortages, who are in return now getting smashed with negative reviews on Google because 'they're never open' even though they do the best pizza I've tasted in my life, or cafes in the city trying to lobby the government to try force workers back into the city who are working from home or contractors complaining that before someone starts working for them they've received counter offers $10,000 higher from someone else and the person quits before they've even started.

Seeing similar things all over the place across different workforce sectors. The two mechanics I use, they are often 2-4 weeks booked out ahead, due to demand and lack of staff. I'm seeing people advertising for jobs using signs on nature strips, labourer for $50/hr, not to be scoffed at. People are losing staff because staff are prepared to walk. Post covid era has shifted the balance of power to employees. That might change if skilled immigration kicks off again.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Agree completely, but you can't have that conversation without acknowledging it, so don't turn around and tell half the story.

I'm seeing my local pizza shop now only operating 2 days a week because of staff shortages, who are in return now getting smashed with negative reviews on Google because 'they're never open' even though they do the best pizza I've tasted in my life, or cafes in the city trying to lobby the government to try force workers back into the city who are working from home or contractors complaining that before someone starts working for them they've received counter offers $10,000 higher from someone else and the person quits before they've even started.

It goes both ways my friend, if everyone just changes careers who are going to do those entry level jobs that haven't kept up with the cost of living? Got three child care centres in my small regional town but no child care workers to work there because they don't pay what the people need to be able to live out here.

Can't get your child into child care because there's no child care workers, guess you gotta work from home, so you're not buying that coffee every morning from the cafe near work anymore or going out for after work drinks with the social club at work either.

You go to the pub, no one working front of house?

If you pay them enough to keep up with cost of living, you going to accept paying $80 for your 300g porterhouse they got from Coles?

Love those pizzas, but I just stopped buying them because I'm not sure if they're going to be open or not so I just don't bother because people are making those career changes, I'm in the process of it now, I've knocked back four job offers recently in my former industry of people approaching me, because they can't afford me, if this was last year I would have entertained their offer but now, hell no its career change time.

Cost of living is way up there, but the wages haven't gone up to match, so we change career, I suspect the answer isn't that simple though, would like to get one of those pizzas again.

The missus was in the same boat. Not paid enough, she asks for a pay rise and they give her the old "you're overpayed as it is now". She looks around for similar jobs, and has 2 companies going dollar for dollar trying to entice her into accepting their jobs offer at 15k over what she's earning now. She puts in notice to leave her current job, and notices they have advertised her job for 8k over what they are paying her supposedly "overpayed" wages at.

It's still 7 k short of what she will get at her new job. Is it any wonder people are just getting up and going somewhere else when they get treated like that? I doubt they will even be able to fill the job, the last few people they hired barely turn up. Pay your workers peanuts and you get monkeys. Then they go screaming to govco to bring in more cheap labour from overseas.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The missus was in the same boat. Not paid enough, she asks for a pay rise and they give her the old "you're overpayed as it is now". She looks around for similar jobs, and has 2 companies going dollar for dollar trying to entice her into accepting their jobs offer at 15k over what she's earning now. She puts in notice to leave her current job, and notices they have advertised her job for 8k over what they are paying her supposedly "overpayed" wages at.

It's still 7 k short of what she will get at her new job. Is it any wonder people are just getting up and going somewhere else when they get treated like that? I doubt they will even be able to fill the job, the last few people they hired barely turn up. Pay your workers peanuts and you get monkeys. Then they go screaming to govco to bring in more cheap labour from overseas.

Over the length of my career, I’ve noticed that generally there's two types of employees, salaried managers and vocational employees. Both of these groups approach salary negotiation and employment completely differently.

I’ve know a a heap of managers over the time and most actually send out their CVS regularly to test the market to see what comes back and when they get two or three offers significantly above their current salary, they negotiate from a position of strength, “ I have these three job offers Fo $x, match them or I’m off” and so it goes…..

The vocational employees on the other hand are far too loyal for their own good, they think that management will recognise their effort and give them a pay rise they think is deserved. Their manager however thinks that this is an empty negotiation without threat, so low balls them / basically go away, we pay you enough. Before they know it the angry employees has found another job that pays better and no amount of persuasion can reverse the decision as they’ve already signed…

It takes years to develop certain vocational trades, companies keep training over and over to cover loss of skilled people that go to competition yet seemed resigned to a viscous cycle that only they can stop…

[MITCHAY]

It was nice while it lasted but <$2 now for 98 is dead around here

[GASWAGON]

New Diesel price cycle just begun this arvo it seems.

Up to $2.40 -50 p/l.....Ouch!

[T3rminator]

Right on cue. 30-40cpl rise out of no where.

Energy companies are now warning a 50% increase in general energy prices next year. Pollies are saying, nah, it wont be that bad, it'll only be 30%.

So how are we going to solve all this? Lets raise interest rates

Buckle up!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Over the length of my career, I’ve noticed that generally there's two types of employees, salaried managers and vocational employees. Both of these groups approach salary negotiation and employment completely differently.

I’ve know a a heap of managers over the time and most actually send out their CVS regularly to test the market to see what comes back and when they get two or three offers significantly above their current salary, they negotiate from a position of strength, “ I have these three job offers Fo $x, match them or I’m off” and so it goes…..

The vocational employees on the other hand are far too loyal for their own good, they think that management will recognise their effort and give them a pay rise they think is deserved. Their manager however thinks that this is an empty negotiation without threat, so low balls them / basically go away, we pay you enough. Before they know it the angry employees has found another job that pays better and no amount of persuasion can reverse the decision as they’ve already signed…

It takes years to develop certain vocational trades, companies keep training over and over to cover loss of skilled people that go to competition yet seemed resigned to a viscous cycle that only they can stop…

You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word.”

Change gun for 'leverage' and that's what the guys sending their CV out and going to interviews getting job offers have.

Its the way you have to be, its a balancing act between how good you are as well as how likely you are to leave, I paid the price for one sided loyalty for way too long, my loyalty to them.

But when the resignation notice went in there was promises for more money, title changes and all sorts of empty promises, yet they wouldn't when it was in a pay review, go figure.

This also applies if you're a supplier to a customer, whats your position in the market? Like OPEC+ and the rest of us suckers, cut 2 million barrels of production right before the mid term elections in the US and hurt the hip pocket of Americans to send a nicely timed message to their administration

Also I see 91 this morning is at $2.15 in Broadmeadows.

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Right on cue. 30-40cpl rise out of no where.

Energy companies are now warning a 50% increase in general energy prices next year. Pollies are saying, nah, it wont be that bad, it'll only be 30%.

So how are we going to solve all this? Lets raise interest rates

Buckle up!

Its a great time to have cash in the bank, thats for sure.

[blueoval]

Paid $1.81 for 95ron this afternoon in Seaford SA.

[au2000]

Yep nothern suburbs servos in melboure all at the 2.15 for 91
Averaging 2.35 for premium now, western suburbs still hovering about 1.75 ish for 91.. so did the run todayy n filled most up..

[Adamz Ghia]

Last week I’ve gone from driving from Geelong to Derrimut for work to driving 10 minutes up the road, I put fuel in the car the Saturday before I started and I still haven’t had to put any in since. Made a huge difference!

[feeble]

This is a great explainer on what's causing the inflation right now. Pretty funny intro too. .